EFFECT OF RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE), DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO (DER),

AND EXCHANGE RATE OF STOCK PRICE

PT. INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TBK

L.C. Anang Zamiarto, 1) Suharto, 2) Akhmad Sodikin, 3)

1) Student of Master Management Krisnadwipayana University

2) Lecture of Master Management Krisnadwipayana University
3) Chairman of Master Management Krisnadwipayana University

Email : anangz@kaltanet.org

ABSTRACT: To be able to assess the performance of the company based on the

comparison of financial data contained in the financial statements using financial
statement analysis tools, then investors can compare the stock price to be purchased by
assessing the ability of the company. Therefore, based on the analysis of company data
known that the partial variable Return On Equity (ROE) effect on stock prices with the
acquisition of R-Square = 0.510 with residual estimate explaned Residual or amounted to
5.979. This condition is able to explain, that ROE partially give influence to stock price
with influence equal to 51%. For Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) variables partially affect the
stock price with the acquisition of R-Square = 0.551 with residual estimate of explaned
Residual or 11.33660. This condition is also able to explain, that DER partially give effect
to stock price with influence equal to 55,1%. While the partial exchange rate variable
does not affect the stock price with the acquisition of R-Square = 0.034 with Residual
Estimate of Explaned Residual or equal to 24.79495. This condition is also explained, that
the exchange rate partially does not give effect to the stock price with the effect of 3.4%.
The variable ROE, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously have a positive and
significant effect on Stock Price. This is indicated by the acquisition of R-Squeare =
0.554 with Residual Estimate of Explaned Residual or equal to 10.63592. This condition
is also quite able to explain, that ROE, DER and Exchange Rate simultaneously give
effect of 55,4%, and the rest equal to 44,6% is as Residual Estimate Unexplaned Residual
that influenced by other variable outside model.

PREFACE

Debt to equity (DER) is the ratio between total debt (current liabilities and long-
term debt) and capital indicating the ability of the company to fulfill its obligations by
using existing capital. Return On Equity (ROE) is a ratio showing how far the company
manages its own capital (net worth) effectively, measuring the rate of return on
investment that has been done by the owner of own capital or shareholder of the company
(Sawir 2009). Exchange rate is the price of a country's currency as measured in the
currency of another country. Exchange rates are also referred to as a comparison of
values in different currency exchanges. That which becomes independent variable is

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stock price. The stock price used is the closing stock price. The price of a stock is
essentially determined by the strength of supply and demand for the shares concerned.
The stock price is a reflection of investors' expectations of future stock performance.

The analysis in the financial statements is a considerate process in order to help

evaluate the financial position and results of the company's operations in the present and
the past in order to determine possible predictions about the condition and performance of
the company in the future. The Importance of Influence Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to
Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate for a company is to know the company's
financial condition is better than the previous years or it actually suffered a loss. And
investors can observe financial performance by evaluating and projected stock prices. If
the profits obtained by the company is good, then investors will not hesitate to buy shares
of the company.

LITERATURE REVIEW

As a research reference of some scientific research, among them entitled Influence

Return On Assets (ROA), Net Profit Margin (NPM) and Earning Per Share (EPS) Against
Stock Price At PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk by Harti Oktarina. That every company
always needs funds to finance its operational activities, the funds can be obtained from
several sources. For companies that have gone public in an effort to increase their
operational funds can be obtained through the sale of shares to investors. Potential
investors should know the performance and prospects of the company that sells its
valuable letter. Basically, investors measure the company's performance based on the
company's ability to manage its resources to generate profit. The purpose of research is to
determine ROA, NPM, and Earnings Per Share (EPS), and to know the influence of ROA,
NPM, and Earnings Per Share (EPS) at PT. INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TBK, the
period from 2007 to 2009. This study was conducted using the classical assumption test,
which consists of three basic assumptions, namely autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and
heteroscedasticity. After that multiple linear regression test, F test, and t test. Based on the
results of the F test (simultaneous), indicating that ROA, NPM and EPS have a significant
effect on stock prices. Based on the t test (partial), only NPM has a significant effect on
stock prices.

The research entitled Earning Per Share (EPS), Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR),
Return On Investment (ROI), and Return On Equity (ROE) to stock price of PT.
GUDANG GARAM, Tbk. YEAR 2002-2010 by Yolanda. That investment in the form of
shares is a form of investment of the most interested investors despite having a high
enough risk. Therefore, before investing in shares, investors should consider whether the
investment is proportional to the level of risk faced. The simplest way is through stock
prices. The stock price is unpredictable. Because of this, investors need to have
information related to the dynamics of stock prices to determine the decisions about a
company's stock worthy to be invested so that investors can ensure that investments in
stock can provide optimum returns. This study aims to assess the effect of several
independent variables selected by the author ie EPS, DPR, ROI, and ROE on stock prices

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PT GUDANG GARAM, Tbk. year 2002-2010. By using multiple linear regression
analysis, it is found that independent variables simultaneously affect the stock price of PT
GUDANG GARAM, Tbk, while partially EPS is the most influential variable
significantly to the stock price of PT GUDANG GARAM, Tbk.

RESEARCH METHODS

This study uses explanatory analysis approach, which aims to the relationship and
influence between independent variables and bound. Furthermore, the results of the
invention will be described, namely by making observations and research and describe the
nature or events that are underway at the time of research done and examine the causes of
certain symptoms. Data compiled from the financial statements of the company in 2008 -
2016.

Then to observe each model significance, it will be done through t test estimators,
and F arithmetic. Predictive models are used to answer the problem and prove the
proposed hypothesis, where the variables studied are each given the following notation:
Y = Stock Price, as dependent variable
X1 = Return on Equity (ROE), as independen variable
X2 = Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), as independen variable
X3 = Kurs, as independen variable

Stages of data processing in this study is the classical assumption test (BLUE)
with regression such as normality test, linearity test, multicollinearity test,
heteroskedasitas test, and autocorrelation.

While the analysis model formula used is Multiple Linear Regression, Multiple
Linear Correlation, Assumption of multiple regression coefficient test, Hypothesis
Testing Multiple Regression, Regression and Partial Correlation. More specifically, the
research model design can be formulated in 4 models as follows :

1. Model 1 (One). The simultaneous relationship between X1 (Return On

Equity (ROE)), X2 (Debt to Equity Ratio (DER)), X3 (Exchange Rate), to
variable Y (Stock Price).
2. Model 2 (Two). Partial relationship between variable X1 (Return On
Equity (ROE)) to Y (Stock Price).
3. Model 3 (Three). Partial relationship between variable X2 (Debt to Equity
Ratio (DER) to Y (Stock Price).
4. Model 4 (Four). Partial relationship between variable X3 (Exchange Rate)
to Y (Stock Price)

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

After the calculation using SPSS for Windows 17 Version computer program to
the specified data, the result of research on the influence of independent variables such as
Return on Equity (ROE) (X1), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER ) (X2), Exchange Rate (X3), to
the dependent variable (Stock Price) (Y), is as follows:

Before performing hypothesis testing, first test whether the model is feasible to be
used as a model that behaves as a predictor model, meaning that the resulting estimator is
a correct, unbiased and predictable estimator.

To determine the feasibility of the resulting model in a simultaneous relationship,

the model can be tested using 5 BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator) assumptions.
These five assumptions are assumptions of normality, linearity, multicolinearity,
heteroscale-sitas, and autocorrelation. The following is a model feasibility test of BLUE
assumptions that include multicollinearity, heteroscedicity, and autocorrelation tests.

1. Multicollinearity Test
Multicolinearity is a problem that arises because of the linear relationship between
independent variables indicated by the presence of high collinearity. A good regression
model should not occur correlation between independent variables. To detect whether the
regression model found the correlation between independent variables or not then
multicollinearity test, therefore this test is only intended for the simultaneous relationship
only.

a. t Test
Results of data processing with SPSS show that t arithmetic for a
(constant) value of 9.924. Another t value is t value of ROE variable equal to
3,819, t value of DER variable is 3,848 and value of t variable of exchange rate is
2,429. Through t test conducted above indicated that, overall t arithmetic is
dominantly relative greater than t significance, for alpha (α) = 0.01 testing proves
that the model does not encounter multicolinearity constraints.

b. VIF Test
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) factor. This is because there are 3
independent variables or independent variables, that is if the value of each variable
<of 10. Value = 1.237 <10, Value = 1.101 <10, Value = 1.174 <10. Through the
Colinierity Statistic test done above it is identified that, the overall VIF value
generated is dominant relative to less than 10, the test proves that, the resulting
value indicates the absence of Multicollinearity constraints in the model.

2. Heteroskedasitas Test
Heteroskedasitas test is intended to find out whether in the regression model there
is a variant inequality of the residual one observation to another observation. If the variant
of one observation residual to another observation is different then it is called
heteroskedasitas. A good model should be free from heteroskedasitas or in other words

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must homoskedasitas ie variant of residual one observation to another observation is
fixed, therefore this test is only intended for the simultaneous relationship only.

To determine the presence or absence of heteroskedasitas in this research is done

by looking at the scatterplot graph between the predicted value of the dependent variable
(ZEPRED) with the residual (SRESID). The basis of the analysis (1) if there is a certain
pattern, such as the existing points form a certain pattern that is regular (wavy, widened
then narrowed) then indicates there has been heteroskedasitas, (2) if there is no clear
pattern and spreading points above and below the number 0 on the Y axis, there is no
heteroskedasitas (Ghozali, 2005).

Figure 1
Scatterplot

Based on the above scatterplot graph between SRESID and ZEPRED (see Figure
1) where the Y axis is predicted Y and X is the residual (Y predicted by real Y) showing
randomly distributed spots, not forming a clear, either above or the number 0 on the Y
axis. It can be concluded that there is no heteroskedasitas on the regression model.

3. Autocorrelation Test
The Autolorelation test is used to ascertain whether there is a correlation between
residuals of one observation with another observation. The determination of the presence
or absence of autocorrelation can be observed with the DW gain of 1.661 (see Table 4.10)
where for DW is 1.65 <DW <2.35 or 1.65 <1.661 <2.35. So it can be concluded that there
is no correlation between residual or observation with other observations.

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Simultaneous Effect of Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and
Exchange Rate to Share Price

The result of data processing with SPSS 17 program proves that the synergy of
Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity (DER) and Exchange Rate simultaneously able
to give relatively strong contribution, and positive to stock price.

Based on the results of statistical tests obtained calculation of regression

coefficients obtained regression equation that is equal to Y = 15.795 + 0.670 (X1) +0.307
(X2) +0.553 (X3). From the multiple regression equation (simultaneous) can be seen the
direction of the relationship resulting from independent variables to the dependent
variable, assuming other variables are constant, that is:

1. The regression coefficient of variable X1 with positive sign showed positive

relationship of Return On Equity (ROE) which caused the increase of 0.670 and
significant for prob sig 0.003 (Significant for α = 0.01) to stock price.

2. The regression coefficient of variable X2 with positive sign indicates the

relationship of Debt to Equity (DER) variable causing an increase of 0.307 and significant
for prob sig 0.000 (Significant for α = 0.01) to stock price.

3. The positive regression coefficient of X3 with positive sign shows the positive
relationship of the exchange rate variable which causes the increase of 0.553 and
significant for prob sig 0.009 (Significant for α = 0.01) to stock price.

Through this estimator can be described, that Return On Equity (ROE) gives an
indication of a relatively higher influence than the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and
Exchange Rate. The simultaneous effect, predicted for constanta constant is 15.785 with
Probability Sig (0.000) or significant for α 0.01. This means that simultaneously these
three predictor variables give a linear fluctuating effect on stock prices, but still within a
significant tolerance (α <0.10%). More details see the table below:

Table 4.8
Anova Influence Simultaneously ratio of Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to
Equity (DER) and Exchange Rate to Stock Price

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 Table 4.9
Simultaneous Effect Regression Coefficient Return On Equity (ROE), Debt
to Equity Ratio (DER), and Exchange Rate to Stock Price.

Taking into account the above table shows that Return On Equity (ROE) has a
positive influence on stock prices and Return On Equity (ROE) has the most dominant
influence from other variables, namely Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Exchange rate in
affecting stock prices . This shows that On Equity (ROE) is the most decisive factor of
stock price increase compared to Debt to Equity (DER) and Exchange Rate.

Furthermore, it can be explained that simultaneously these three variables are able
to predict the positive and significant effect for α 0.01, and also able to give a strong
enough contribution to the linear change to stock price, pay attention to R-Square in table
4.10 display (R-Square = 0.554 with residual estimate of explaned Residual or equal to
10.63592). This condition is also able to explain, that the Return On Equity (ROE), Debt
to Equity Ratio (DER) and exchange rate simultaneously give effect to stock price which
in this case can be explained with influence of 55.4% and the rest or equal to 44.6%
Residual Unexplaned Residual estimates that are influenced by other variables outside the
model, that is, beyond the Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and
Exchange Rate as described above, can be seen in Table 4.10. below this:

Table 4.10.
Simultaneous Summary Model Influence Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to
Equity (DER) And Rate of Exchange
Against Stock Price

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 Based on Table 4.10 view. above the influence of simultaneously Return On
Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Exchange Rate have a fairly close
relationship (0.617 or 61.7%) with strong contribution or influence (0.554 or 55.4%) to
stock price.

Influence of Partial Return On Equity (ROE) on Stock Price.

If the simultaneous variable Return On Equity (ROE) is able to synergize with

other variables that can affect the high low stock prices, then something interesting to
examine more depth is how if viewed partially, whether the variable Return On Equity
(ROE) is also able to influence high or low stock prices.

From the partial regression equation above can be seen the direction of the
relationship resulting from independent variables to the dependent variable, assuming
other variables are constant, that is: Ŷ = 15.795 + 0.670 (𝑋1 ) + 𝑒

The variable regression coefficient of X_1 with positive sign shows that there is a
positive relationship of Return on Equity (ROE) variable which causes an increase of
0.670 and significant for prob sig 0.003 (Significant for α = 0.01) to stock price. And to
test the partial relationship of Return On Equity (ROE) variable to stock price significant
or not, tested Significant = 0.003 for α = 0.01. Based on the above calculation can be
stated that the value of t significant = 0.003 for α = 0.01, it can mean there is a significant
influence Return On Equity (ROE) on stock prices.

Table 4.11
Partial Regression Coefficient of Influence Return On Equity (ROE) on
Stock Price

Taking into account the above table shows that Return On Equity (ROE) has a
positive and significant influence on stock prices. Furthermore, it can be explained that
partially Return On Equity (ROE) variable can predict positive and significant effect for α
0.01 (Notice Prob Sig. 0.003), and also able to give strong enough contribution to stock
price, consider R-Square on Table 4:12 (R-Square = 0.510 with residual residual explaned
or 5.979). This condition is also able to explain, that Return On Equity (ROE) partially
give effect to stock price with influence equal to 51%. More details of the partial effect of
Retrun On Equity (ROE) as described above, can be seen in table 4.12 below:

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 Table 4.12
Model Summary Partial Influence Return On Equity (ROE)
on Stock Price

Influence of Partial Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) on Stock Price

If simultaneously the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) variable can synergize with
other variables, but an interesting thing to be studied more deeply is how if viewed
partially, whether the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) variable can also influence the high or
low stock price.

From the partial regression equation above can be seen the direction of the
relationship resulting from independent variables to the dependent variable, assuming
other variables are constant, that is: Ŷ = 15.795 + 0.307(𝑋2 ) + 𝑒

The regression coefficient of variable X_2 is positive signifying that there is a

positive correlation of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) variable which causes rise of 0.307
and significant for t prob sig 0.000 (Significant for α 0.01) to stock price. And to test the
partial relationship of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) variable to stock price significant or
not, then tested with Significant t 0.000 for α = 0.01. Based on the above calculation can
be stated that the value of significant t = 0.000 for α = 0.01, then it can be interpreted
there is partial influence Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) to stock prices. For more details see
the table view below:

Table 4.13
Partial Regression Coefficient of Debt to Equity (DER)
on stock prices

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 Taking into account the above table shows that Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) has a
positive influence on stock prices. Furthermore, it can be explained that partially Debt to
Equity Ratio (DER) is able to influence positive and significant for α 0.01 (note t Prob
Sig. 0.000), and also able to contribute strongly to stock price, consider R-Square on
display table 4:14 (R-Square = 0.551 with residual estimation of the Explaned Residual or
equal to 11.33660). This condition is also able to explain, that Debt to Equity Ratio
(DER) partially give effect to stock price equal to 55,1%. More details of such partial
effects as described above can be seen in Table 4.14 below:

Table 4.14
Model Summary Partial Influence Debt to Equity Ratio (DER)
Against stock prices

Influence of Exchange Rate on Stock Price

If simultaneously the exchange rate variables are able to synergize with other
variables so that it is sufficient to influence the high low stock prices, then something
interesting to examine more depth is how if viewed partially, whether the variable
exchange rate also can affect the high or low stock prices.

From the partial regression equation above can be seen the direction of the
relationship resulting from independent variables to the dependent variable, assuming
other variables are constant, that is: Ŷ = 15.795 + 0.553 (𝑋3 ) + 𝑒

The regression coefficient of X_3 variable with positive sign indicates a positive
correlation of the exchange rate variable which causes the increase of 0.553 and the
significance for prob sig 0.009 (Significant to α 0.01) to the stock price. And to test the
partial relationship of the variable of Exchange Rate to stock price significant or not,
Significant test t = 0.009 for α = 0.01. Based on the above calculation can be stated that
the value of t significant = 0.009 for α = 0.01, then it can be interpreted there is a
significant influence the value of Exchange rate against stock prices.

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 Table 4.15
Partial Regression Coefficient Influence Exchange Rate
Against stock prices

Taking into account the above table shows that the exchange rate does not have a
positive and significant effect on stock prices. Furthermore, it can be explained that
partially the exchange rate variable is not able to predict the positive and significant effect
for α 0.01 (Notice Prob Sig. 0.009), and unable to contribute to stock price, note R-Square
in Table 4.16 (R -Square = 0.034 with residual estimate of explaned Residual or equal to
24.79495). This condition is also able to explain, that the exchange rate partially does not
give effect to the stock price with the effect of 3.4%.

Table 4.16
Model Summary Partial Effect Exchange Rate
Against Stock Price

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusions

1. Partially Return On Equity (ROE) effect on stock price with the acquisition of R-
Square = 0.510 with residual estimate of explaned Residual or equal to 5,979). This
condition is also able to explain, that Return On Equity (ROE) partially give effect to
stock price with influence equal to 51%.

2. Partially Debt to Equty Ratio (DER) effect on stock price with the acquisition of
R-Square = 0.551 with residual estimate of explaned Residual or equal to 11.33660). This
condition is also able to explain, that Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) partially give effect to
stock price with influence equal to 55,1%.

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3. Partially Exchange Rate has no effect to stock price with earnings (R-Square =
0.034 with Residual Estimate Explaned Residual or equal to 24.79495). This condition is
also explained, that the exchange rate partially does not give effect to the stock price with
the effect of 3.4%.

4. Simultaneously, Return On Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and

Exchange rate have positive and significant influence to Stock Price. This is indicated by
the acquisition of R-Squeare = 0.554 with Residual Estimate of Explaned Residual or
equal to 10.63592). This condition is also able to explain, that Debt to Equity Ratio
(DER), Return On Equity (ROE) and Exchange Rate simultaneously give effect of 55,4%,
and the rest or equal to 44,6% is as Residual Estimate of Unexplaned Residual influenced
by other variables outside the model.

Recommendations

1. Investors can improve their understanding of the interaction of variables related to

capital market instruments, but the understanding of partially derived variables from
partial (exchange rate) can not be fully considered as described in this study.

2. The higher Return On Equity (ROE) indicates the better the company's ability to
gain profit from investments made by the company. These gains affect the stock price and
ultimately increase the stock price.

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Fakultas Ekonomi, Vol. 5 No. 1, 2017, Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Krisnadwipayana,

Program Studi Magister Manajemen Universitas Krisnadwipayana, Bekasi.

WEBSITE

http://www.pengertianku.net/2016/04/pengertian-kurs-dan-macam-macamnya.html

http://www.duniainvestasi.com/bei/

http://yahoo.finance.com

www.idx.co.id

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