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Harnessing The AfCFTA For Increased German Investment in Africa - Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI)
Harnessing The AfCFTA For Increased German Investment in Africa - Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI)
The author argues that German investors should keep their eyes on the AfCFTA.
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Table of Contents
Summary
Introduction
Conclusion
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04/11/2023, 06:34 Harnessing the AfCFTA for Increased German Investment in Africa - Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59184/sa.026
Summary
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is designed to stimulate African industrial growth through intra-African
trade; however, it requires more investment.
Despite Germany's various efforts, including the Compact with Africa and "German Desks", to encourage private investment in
Africa, the outcomes have been modest with less than 1% of its outward investment flowing into Africa.
Constraints such as limited sector participation, negative stereotypes, and infrastructure challenges have hampered German
foreign direct investment in Africa; the AfCFTA's investment protocol could help alleviate some of these issues.
German car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW have established operations in Africa. However, the market
size is small, necessitating a broader investment strategy including financial sector and skills development.
Although African regional value chains are still nascent, German investors can take an ecosystem approach to investing in
Africa, anticipating the various inputs that a mature ecosystem will require and investing in their production.
Germany could greatly support AfCFTA's logistics sector development, capitalising on successful firms such as DHL to improve
infrastructure and optimise processes, whilst encouraging other German logistics companies to invest in Africa.
Introduction
'The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement is a flagship initiative of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and is
expected to help transform African economies through increased intra-African trade in goods and services. Over a period of 13 years,
the AfCFTA seeks to remove import tariffs on over 90% of goods produced and traded within the continent, creating a single African
market that can help increase productivity and drive industrial growth. However, for this growth to happen, the continent will need to
scale up production by attracting more investment into its industrial sectors.
Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the fourth largest in the world. In 2021, trade was about 89% of Germany’s GDP,
with its exports of goods and services at a healthy 47%. In 2022, Germany exported US$429 billion worth of machinery and parts
under Harmonised System (HS) codes 84 and 85. It also exported US$257.5 billion worth of vehicles under HS code 87 in the same
year. Germany is a world leader in industrial production and its industrial sector was 26.6% of its economic output in 2021. In many
ways, Germany is a role model for Africa’s industrial growth ambitions.
These efforts have, however, struggled to yield results. In 2021, foreign direct investment (FDI) from Germany into Africa was around
€1.6 billion, representing a share of less than one percent of its outward investment flows. Africa’s share of Germany’s FDI has
remained stuck at around 1% for a number of years. In addition, the presence of German businesses in Africa is concentrated in South
Africa and some northern African countries.
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04/11/2023, 06:34 Harnessing the AfCFTA for Increased German Investment in Africa - Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI)
There are other general reasons that apply to most foreign investors, including strong negative stereotypes, infrastructure challenges,
workforce challenges, and knowledge and capacity gaps.
There has, however, been an increased interest from German firms in Africa outside AfCFTA-related developments. This interest has
been driven more by domestic issues such as finding alternative sources of energy supply, particularly for renewable energy. The
discussions around critical raw materials are ramping up as geopolitical tensions are also driving European companies to explore ways
of diversifying their supply chains. Although these sectors are of great interest to Africa, the AfCFTA has also prioritised some other
sectors for investment and development. They include the agriculture, automotive, and logistics sectors. Of these three, Germany has a
competitive advantage in automotives and logistics.
Overcoming the challenges facing the sector will require a more holistic approach. German firms can participate in developing the
automotive sector value chains in several different ways, including in the financial sector and in skills development. This participation
will require coordination among German companies in the financial sector, the education sector, the manufacturing sector, and the
logistics sector - to name a few. Taking a long-term view of the African automotive sector and working with the AfCFTA’s plan for
developing the industry could help the VDA come up with a plan for facilitating more German investment into the sector. This
facilitation could then plug in other German investment facilitation initiatives, such as the guarantees, and the financing solutions.
However, there is probably still more value that can be unlocked with the objective of strengthening Africa’s logistics sector. The
expertise that DHL has built over time in navigating African borders should be an even bigger part of efforts to build the sector’s
capacity and increase its attractiveness to investors. Firstly, DHL can collaborate with governments and regional organisations to invest
in transport infrastructure, such as roads, railways, ports, and airports, to enhance connectivity and facilitate trade flows within the
AfCFTA. Secondly, DHL's expertise in supply chain management can be deployed to help optimise logistics processes, reducing costs,
minimising delays, and improving overall trade efficiency. Thirdly, DHL can provide guidance and support in trade facilitation,
including customs processes and compliance requirements, to expedite cross-border trade. Additionally, DHL can leverage digital
solutions and technology to enhance transparency and visibility in transport and logistics operations.
The company should also be more involved in scoping exercises carried out by German firms with an interest in Africa. Other German
logistics companies are entering the African market, including Harren Group, a shipping firm that opened its first office in Africa in
2022. The office was set up in Nigeria and is targeting the West African market. The German Chambers of Commerce Abroad will
need to closely monitor the operations of these new entrants, helping them address challenges and using their experience to support
prospective investors.
Conclusion
The opportunities the AfCFTA presents are apparent, and German companies have signified an interest in expanding their investment
in Africa. The larger market and streamlined regulatory framework of the AfCFTA will benefit German companies with innovative
investment facilitation measures. The competitive edge Germany has in the automotive and logistics sectors can be pillars of a strategy
to increase German participation in the single market. However, a comprehensive, long-term perspective that encompasses different
sectoral initiatives and investments is crucial. All in all, enhancing German-African ties through the AfCFTA could not only spur
Africa's industrial growth but also mark a significant stride in Germany's international relations.
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04/11/2023, 06:34 Harnessing the AfCFTA for Increased German Investment in Africa - Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI)
Teniola Tayo
Teniola Tayo is a policy advisor with a focus on regional integration issues in Africa including the African Continental
Free Trade Area and wider trade, security, and development policies on the continent. She is currently the Trade Policy
Fellow at the Africa Policy Research Institute. She has previously worked as a consultant with the Institute for Security
Studies, Supply Chain Africa, United Nations Development Programme, and the West African Think Tank. She has also
worked as a senior legislative aide with the Nigerian Senate and as a consultant with the Office of the Vice President.
She has a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics, a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Ghana,
and recently completed a fellowship at the European University Institute's School of Transnational Governance.
APRI does not take institutional positions on public policy issues. The views expressed in publications are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of
APRI, its staff, or its board.
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