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Research On Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Threat Assessment
Research On Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Threat Assessment
ABSTRACT The unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) plays an ever increasing and important role in
the modern marine environment. In particular, the tasks of underwater reconnaissance and surveillance,
underwater mine hunting and anti-submarine warfare, all poses a serious and dangerous threat to humans.
UUV has become the forerunning technology to accomplish such missions. In this paper, a method based on
dynamic Bayesian network modeling was proposed to evaluate the UUV in an underwater threat situation.
We divided the UUV threats into three categories: environmental factors, platform factors, and mission
factors. Through each of these categories, we carried out factor extraction and set up the priori probability
according to the characteristics. Setting up the static Bayesian network involved the addition of state
transition probability and establishment of the model for assessing the dynamic Bayesian threat situation.
By comparing the results of the static and dynamic Bayesian simulation, it was shown that the dynamic
Bayesian is superior. Moreover, by analyzing the sensitivity, we recognized the greatest current threat and in
response, determined the appropriate UUV countermeasures. The results showed that the dynamic Bayesian
method has great practical significance and value for threat assessment.
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H. Yao et al.: Research on UUV Threat Assessment
Bayesian networks. The Portuguese Air Force Development Using the personally developed model to evaluate our results,
and Innovation Research Center has analyzed scenarios con- we have carried out simulation-based experiments that effec-
cerning unmanned underwater vehicles [9] under threat, prov- tively mimic typical mission cases.
ing that it is feasible to determine the risk probability through
Bayesian network learning. Meanwhile, the Russo [10] team II. BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE BAYESIAN NETWORK
at the University of Alsace has used Bayesian networks A. TYPICAL BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL
to assess the threat severity of rear-end collisions. In this The Bayesian network is a graphical model describing
research, traffic instances were used to carry out simulation the dependencies between random variables, and is widely
experiments, proving that the results were in line with what used to solve problems involving uncertainty. Formally,
had been expected. the Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph with nodes
In the recent years, research into threat assessment has been representing random variables and directed arcs between
on the rise in China. Liu et al. [11] of Harbin Engineering nodes representing conditional dependencies between ran-
University utilized double Bayesian estimation to assess the dom variables. It is rooted in probability theory [14] and
motion state of dynamic threats. This method has the potential has the characteristics of two-way reasoning. It can manage
for more accurate results, leading to an improved outcome. both casual reasoning, namely, deduce a posterior probability
Another study of Liu et al. [12] from the Air Force Engineer- from a priori probability, and also be competent for diagnostic
ing University used both a dynamic Bayesian network and a reasoning. In this case, it will deduce a priori probability from
fuzzy neural network to assess the threat level of abnormal air a posterior probability using a formula. Fig.1 shows a typical
conditions while engaged in air defense operations. Results Bayesian network model for threat assessment, which will be
from the simulation using their GeNIe software are in line able to determine the causality by setting a priori probability
with the expectations. Bian and Yang [13] implemented a of the threat level with respect to the type and the number
dynamic Bayesian network to analyze the factors that threaten of targets. When the new data arrives, it will compute the
the formation assumed for air defense. The simulation results corresponding prediction and assessment.
showed that the model could effectively identify the cate-
gories and the intentions of the subject.
Dynamic Bayesian networks are commonly employed to
solve problems in the domain of dynamic threat assessment.
A Bayesian network is a framework for knowledge represen-
tation and probabilistic reasoning. It has been widely used in
cases where the target to be assessed is shrouded by intrinsic
uncertainties. Some examples include target threat assess-
ment in battlefields, prediction of transportation conditions,
and data mining. Dynamic Bayesian networks have various
advantages, including a good dynamic nature and excellent
robustness. In Bayesian networks, nodes and arcs repre-
FIGURE 1. Typical Bayesian network model for threat assessment.
sent relationships between elements: nodes represent element
incidents and arcs represent probability relationships between
elements. Relationships can be either unidirectional or bidi-
rectional, and depend on the domain and the problem being B. DYNAMIC BAYESIAN NETWORK
solved. The priori probability loaded into the model can be The ordinary static Bayesian network can accurately analyze
directly set based on expert knowledge or derived via self- and predict data at a specific time; however, it is unable to
learning using the sample data. effectively judge a variable that changes over time. In con-
As can be seen from the above research, the majority sideration of variables subject to change with respect to time,
of effort has been directed towards the Unmanned Aerial the dynamic Bayesian network is introduced. Unlike the
Vehicle (UAV). Applications include air defense, air combat, static Bayesian network, a dynamic Bayesian network uses
missile targeting and avoidance, as well as other types of techniques that take into account the relationship between
assessment using Bayesian networks. However, there has moments in time. This relationship is referred to as the
been very little research on threat assessment involving the state transition probability. In this way, improved results are
UUV. In this paper, a method was proposed for threat assess- obtained from the network’s ability to learn and make effec-
ment based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). This tive use of a change in value between various points in time.
accounted myriad threats that were encountered during their Let the set of the nodes changing over time be X =
missions, including complex sea conditions and other dan- {X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn }, where Xi [t] shows the state value of the
gers. The study began with the implementation of a static i variable at time t. The DBN can be defined as: (B0 , Bτ ),
Bayesian network (SBN) model. In order to address the where B0 represents the initial BN, with the probability dis-
problem of the network’s inability to effectively assess a tribution P(X [0]), for the initial state X [0]. Bτ indicates the
dynamic threat, the state transition probability was added. transfer network, with the transition probability specified as
P(X [t + 1]X [t]) for the variable state change from time t to where P(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ) is the joint distribution of all nodes
time t + 1. Take note that the state probability at time t + 1, in the established evaluation model, and Pa (Xi ) is the set of
is related to time t, and no other point in time. We make the parent nodes for Xi .
assumption that the conditional probability of adjacent time For the static Bayesian network model, assuming that the
is stationary in a finite time range; that P(X [t + 1]X [t]) is network has n hidden nodes and m observation nodes, the fol-
constant, independent of time. lowing inference mechanism can be obtained by combining
Based on this assumption, there are two parts in a dynamic the above formulas and assumptions:
Bayesian network for joint probability distribution estab-
lished on the time axis of the random process: P(x1 , x2 , . . . , xn |y1 , y2 , . . . , ym )
Q Q
(1) A priori network B0 shown in Figure 2(a), as the j P(yj |Pa (yj )) i P(xi |Pa (xi ))
=P (4)
probability distribution for the initial state;
Q Q
x1 ,x2 ,...,xn j P(yj |Pa (yj )) i P(xi |Pa (xi ))
(2) A transfer network Bτ shown in Figure 2(b), as the
transition probability between the two moments. where i in the formula can be valued from 1 to n, and j from
1 to m, xi represents the value of the Xi , yj represents the value
of the observation variable Yj , Pa (xi ) and Pa (yj ) respectively
indicate the set of the parent nodes for xi and yj .
The formula (4) shows the reasoning mechanism for the
static Bayesian network. If it is extended along the timeline
to be a dynamic network to include T time points, then the
reasoning mechanism for the dynamic Bayesian network can
be obtained. When the observation values have only one com-
posite state, the hidden variables will be distributed as in (5),
FIGURE 2. Dynamic Bayesian network. (a) Priori network. (b) Transfer shown at the bottom of this page, where, i = 1, 2, . . . , T ;
network. j = 1, 2, . . . , m; k = 1, 2, . . . , n; xij represents a value state
of the Xij . The first subscript represents the i time point, while
In summary, for a given dynamic Bayesian network model
the second subscript represents the j hidden node within this
(X [1], X [2], . . . , X [t]), the formula for the joint distribution
time point. yij represents the value of the observation variable
probability is:
Yij . Pa (yij ) represents the set of the parent nodes for yij . If the
P(X [1], X [2], . . . , X [t]) observation value is in multiple states, then the following
YT will hold as (6), shown at the bottom of this page, where,
= PB0 (X [1]) PBτ (X [t + 1]X [t]) (1)
i=1 i = 1, 2, . . . , T ; j = 1, 2, . . . , m; k = 1, 2, . . . , n; yijs indi-
where P(X [1], X [2], . . . , X [t]) represents the joint distribu- cates the state of the j observation node xij , within the i time
tion of the nodes in the network,PB0 (X [1]) is the probability slice. P(yij = yijs ) is the probability of yij in the corresponding
distribution of the node at time t, and PBτ (X [t + 1]X [t]) state. In its entirety, this describes the inference mechanism
represents the state transition probability. of the dynamic Bayesian network.
(6)
B. EXTRACTION OF UUV THREAT FACTORS FIGURE 3. Static Bayesian overall model for UUV threat assessment.
UUVs will face a variety of threats underwater; hence,
to assess each situation, the first step is to extract and refine
the observable threat factors and build the nodes of the
threat assessment model. As there are copious threat factors,
we divided them into three categories: environmental factors,
platform factors and mission factors. Table 1 shows the set of
threat factors and their states.
The data in the above table can be used to establish a
static Bayesian overall model for UUV threat assessment,
as shown in Fig.3. In addition, it can be used with static
Bayesian models for the three types of threat factors shown
in Figures 4, 5 and 6. Based on the characteristics of the FIGURE 4. Static Bayesian model for threat assessment of environmental
three types of threat factors and the actual situation, the state factors.
set is determined. Once this is done, the priori probabil-
ity is set according to expert’s experience. As there is an It is important to recognize that when the UUV is engaged
immense volume of data for priori probability, we only show in an actual mission, it will be faced with more complex
the priori probability for environmental factors, as shown conditions that are often related to time. For example, with
in Tables 2, 3 and 4. respect to the threat of enemy submarines, this is a case where
TABLE 5. Partial priori probability for the underwater obstacle is set at time t.
TABLE 6. Partial priori probability for the underwater obstacle is set at time t +1.
The Navy unequivocally needs continuous ISR, whose found 100m ahead, and its passive sonar has detected enemy
reconnaissance data includes all types of intelligence gath- submarines slowly moving 13km to the side.
ering, target detection and localization, and mapping. UUVs According to the above case, we can handle the threat
can operate over long distances, in shallow waters and factors, assuming that everything is in good condition before
autonomously. In addition, they are better suited for conceal- time t = 4. At this time, SJL = {50-130}; SSL = {single};
ment than any other system. In summary, UUVs are ideal for SFW = {steady }; DLD = {lack }; RWZH = {bad };
information gathering. QT = {dangerous}. The rest of the factors are in good condi-
Based on the analysis of the above-mentioned ISR mis- tion while the environmental, platform-related and mission-
sions, it is assumed that we have an UUV performing its task based factors need to be used for comprehensive assessment
of surveying the seabed terrain, which is 3-5 nautical miles of the threat. Tables 9, 10 and 11 will present the input
away from the host platform. The job involves collecting evidence of the three types of network.
data and feeding it back to the host platform for intelli-
gence imaging. Also, this UUV has been working underwater B. ANALYSIS OF BAYESIAN SIMULATION RESULTS
continuously for 10 hours; the motor power reports 40% as FOR ISR MISSIONS
displayed, and the ocean current is comparatively weak and The results are as follows for simulation of the cases stated
moderate in density. The mission load is being reported as in the previous section by using the established static and
abnormal from time t = 4; a static and separate obstacle is dynamic Bayesian network assessment models.
Fig.9-Fig.14 show the simulation results. From these the Consequently, the danger value is often higher in the threat
results of environmental and platform-related dynamic and assessment results for the dynamic network. See Fig.15 for
as well as static threats, it can be seen that the dynamic the histogram of the sensitivity analysis.
network has a higher sensitivity to the presence of threats. Fig.15 gives a quantitative ranking of the threat levels,
It is successfully able to considers the changes over time showing that the most threatening to the mission is the
and the tendency for events to develop. With the enhanced enemy submarine (QT), followed by the underwater obsta-
knowledge of the relationship between the previous and latter cles (SZAW) and energy margin (NYYL). When these condi-
moments, the network is more capable of determining danger. tions are relayed back to the control center, the UUV will take
action that is prioritized accordingly. It will first deal with [11] C. Liu, J. X. Zhao, and H. Hu, ‘‘Research on motion status estimation
and evade the enemy submarine threat, optimally by returning of dynamic threat base on double bayes estimation,’’ J. Zhengzhou Univ.,
vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 55–60, Feb. 2017.
to the host platform where it will replenish energy while [12] Q. Liu, H. L. Cui, and H. C. Mao, ‘‘Threat level assessment of anomaly
monitoring the enemy submarine. At this point, the platform air situation in air-defense,’’ Command Control Simul., vol. 39, no. 4,
will determine the next action or strategy. pp. 69–74, Apr. 2017.
[13] H. F. Bian and G. Y. Yang, ‘‘Threat assessment on ship air defense based
on dynamic Bayesian network,’’ Ordnance Ind. Autom., vol. 34, no. 6,
V. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK pp. 14–19, Jun. 2015.
[14] M. Krüger, J. Ziegler, and K. Heller, ‘‘A generic Bayesian network for
With the general notion that China has been increasingly identification and assessment of objects in maritime surveillance,’’ in Proc.
focusing on ocean engineering and ocean research, wherein 15th Int. Conf. Inf. Fusion, Jul. 2012, pp. 2309–2316.
the development of underwater unmanned vehicles (UUV) [15] D. Qian, J. Zhao, and Y. Yang, ‘‘Development trend of military
UUV(1): A review of U.S. military unmanned system development plan,’’
has attracted a great deal of attention. In this paper, we have J. Unmanned Undersea Syst., vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 1–30, Apr. 2015.
studied methods for the assessment of UUV threat situations
by adopting the techniques of static and dynamic Bayesian
network modeling. We have simulated various threat assess-
ments on both network types, with the results showing that
the dynamic Bayesian method has more practical signifi- HONGFEI YAO received the B.S. degree from
cance and inherent value. Finally, we have designed a rele- Qiqihar University, in 2003, and the M.S. degree in
vant simulation case that is based on typical ISR missions, automation professional from Harbin Engineering
University, in 2009, where he is currently pursuing
in accordance with UUV-specific missions. Our system was the Ph.D. degree in pattern recognition and intel-
successful in the simulation and has proved the feasibility of ligent system. He was with Qiqihar University as
the dynamic Bayesian method for the assessment of UUV a Lecturer. His research interests include auton-
threats. It should be pointed out that the priori probability of omy control and swarm intelligence for unmanned
systems, intelligent optimization theory and
our dynamic Bayesian threat assessment model is set based methods, machine learning, deep learning, deep
on expert knowledge in this field. Inevitably, this is subjective reinforcement learning, and target tracking.
and limited by the experience of the expert. Reasonable and
scientific determination of priori probability in this model
to enhance its objectivity and reliability shall be the focus
of future work. Additionally, the dynamic Bayesian network
method can be applied in business risk assessment and diag- HONGJIAN WANG was born in Harbin,
Heilongjiang, China, in 1971. She received the
nostics. B.S. degree from Heilongjiang University, in 1993,
and the M.S. degree in computer science and
REFERENCES the Ph.D. degree in control theory and control
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39th Annu. Conf. IEEE Ind. Electron. Soc. (IECON), 2014, in 2018. He is currently pursuing the M.S. degree
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YING WANG received the M.E. degree from CHUNSONG HAN received the B.E. degree in
Northeast Electric Power University, in 2011. She automation from Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an,
is currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree in control China, in 1999, the M.S. degree in control science
theory and control engineering with Harbin Engi- and control engineering from the University of
neering University. She was with the Economic Science and Technology Liaoning, Anshan, China,
and Technological Research Institute, State Grid in 2006, and the Ph.D. degree in control science
Heilongjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. and control engineering was from the Harbin Insti-
tute of Technology, Harbin, China, in 2014. His
research interests include fuzzy control systems,
descriptor systems, robust control/filtering, and
switched systems.