Arabian Journal of Geosciences (2021) 14:682

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07010-9

ORIGINAL PAPER

Climate change effects on potential

evapotranspiration in Bangladesh
Jannatun Nahar Jerin 1 & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam 1 & Md. Abdullah Al Mamun 2 & Md. Nur Mozahid 3,4 &
Sobhy M. Ibrahim 5

Received: 26 August 2020 / Accepted: 22 March 2021

# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2021

Abstract
Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) is considered to be one of the key factors in water resource practices. Insights into the effects
of climate change on ETo are crucial for irrigation design and policy formulation; however, little is understood on it in the case of
Bangladesh at the national basin scale. This study intends to appraise monthly, annual, and decadal ETo datasets using the
Penman-Monteith FAO-56 (FAO-56 PM) model based on daily meteorological datasets of 25 sites during 1975–2017. The
Mann-Kendall (MK) technique was used to detect trend patterns. Besides, Sen’s slope estimator was employed to evaluate the
trend lines extent. The results depicted that 82.67% of the monthly ETo values had descending trends and 39.67 and 16.33% were
significant at α<0.05 and α<0.01 confidence levels, respectively. By contrast, 17.33% of the monthly ETo value exhibited a
significant increasing trend at α<0.05. A significant increasing trend was distributed in the southeastern part of Chittagong, while
the decreasing trend was at the southcentral part of Mymensingh (α<0.01). Based on annual and decadal timescales, 92% and
83% of the stations exhibited descending ETo trends in Bangladesh. The ascending trend was observed at Rangamati, Barisal,
and Bhola stations, respectively. As a whole, a paradoxical situation may occur due to declining trend patterns of ETo across
Bangladesh. This might be due to the decrease in the sunshine hour and wind speed from the impact of the current climate
warming. Insights of this research can be used for decision-making for future water resources management in Bangladesh.

Keywords Water resource . Bangladesh . Evaporation paradox . Global warming . FAO Penman-Monteith formula

Introduction

Climate change has appeared as one of the key environmental

Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang concerns of the twenty-first century, which is largely driven
by human-induced greenhouse emissions (Holden et al. 2018;
* Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam Duan et al. 2019; Ghose et al. 2021). As claimed by the
towfiq_dm@brur.ac.bd
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global
* Sobhy M. Ibrahim mean surface temperature has risen by 0.85 °C from 1890 to
sobhy.yakout@gmail.com
2012 and will rise nearly by 1–5°C by terminating the twenty-
1 first century (IPCC 2014; Islam et al. 2018). Associated with
Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University,
Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh climate warming, other climatic variables (e.g., precipitation,
2 humidity, sunshine hour, wind speed) have also changed no-
Department of Applied Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,
University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh tably in the past few decades and increased their variability
3 (IPCC 2014). These changes substantially alter the water cy-
Department of Agricultural Economics and Policy, Sylhet
Agricultural University, Sylhet 3100, Bangladesh cle, which is among the most susceptible to climate change in
4 a specific region, including Bangladesh. For example,
Enviornmental Economics and Natural Resource Group,
Wageningen University and Research, Bangladesh is now experiencing severe climate change and
Wageningen, The Netherlands variability effects (Climate Change Cells 2008; Islam et al.
5
Department of Biochemistry, College of Science, King Saud 2019; Salam and Islam 2020). The climatic variables not only
University, P.O. Box: 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia alter the water cycle but also govern the plant ecosystem via
 682 Page 2 of 15
shift the potential evapotranspiration (Fu et al. 2017; Duan
et al. 2019). Thus, a comprehensive insight into climate
change impacts on the ETo is imperative for water resources
management and related policy implications, which has also
been a crucial issue in the field of climate change research.
According to Allen et al. (1998), potential evapotranspira-
tion (ETo) is an imaginary grass potential agriculture with ex-
pected harvesting lenght of 0.12 m, a static surface resistance of
70 cm−1, and an albedo of 0.23. Estimating ETo is no easy task.
It is considered one of the vital steps for computing crop water
demand and has a unique economic value in the justification of
water consumption in agricultural farming practices under cli-
matic change scenarios. Changes in ETo are influenced not
only by temperature increase but also by other important cli-
matic factors such as wind speed, solar radiation, vapor pres-
sure, and relative humidity (Hargreaves and Samini 1982; Song
et al. 2017). ETo changes at specific stations depend on these
meteorological parameters. The ETo-dependent variables
showed some variations based on the magnitudes.
Understanding trends in ETo is critical for the systematic
management of water in any region. In the recent decade, ETo
trend detection is attracting much attention among research
scholars, practitioners, and irrigation engineers throughout the
world including Bangladesh (e.g., Bandyopadhyay et al.
2009; Zhang et al. 2013; Liu and Zhang 2013; Guixia et al.
2014; Mojid et al. 2015; Chu et al. 2017; Pandey et al. 2017;
Feng et al. 2017; Rahman et al. 2019). To measure the ETo, the
highly accepted worldwide model, such as the FAO-56 Penman-
Monteith (FAO-56 PM), has been applied in numerous studies,
for example, Croitoru et al. (2013) in Romania, Yadav et al.
(2016) in India, Chu et al. (2017) and Li et al. (2021) in China,
Dinpashoh et al. (2018) in Iran, and De la Casa and Ovando
(2016) in Argentina. Some of these previous works exhibited
an increasing trend in the annual ETo values in different coun-
tries like China (Tao et al. 2015; Song et al. 2017; Li et al. 2018)
and Iran (Tabari et al. 2011; Dinpashoh et al. 2018), while other
studies showed a decreasing trend in the ETo in various countries
such as India (Bandyopadhayay et al. 2009), Egypt (Khalil
2013), and Thailand (Limjirakan and Limsakul 2012). This inci-
dent of the difference from the expected evaporation tendency to
the actual evaporation tendency is recognized as the “evaporation
paradox.” However, most of the past cited works were using the
non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test tool to identify trends
in the ETo time series datasets (Yin et al. 2010, Limjirakan and
Limsakul 2012; Darshana et al. 2013; Chu et al. 2017; Li et al.
2021; Elbeltagi et al. 2021).
In Bangladesh, a limited number of ETo-related works
have been found in the literature (Ayub and Miah 2011;
Mojid et al. 2015; Rahman et al. 2019; Salam et al. 2020;
Jerin et al. 2021). For example, Ayub and Miah (2011) found
a declining trend of the ETo over northwest districts such as
Bogra, Rangpur, and Dinajpur in Bangladesh using observed
and model outputs. Similarly, Mojid et al. (2015) reported the
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
declining trends of ETo from 1990 to 2010 in a similar north-
west Bogra and Dinajpur district of Bangladesh. These previ-
ous works have analyzed the crop water requirement during
the dry winter in the North-West region of Bangladesh
(Shahid 2011; Acharjee et al. 2017; Islam et al. 2019). Most
of the reported studies either are limited to the northwest re-
gion or have a limited number of stations in Bangladesh.
Although a substantial body of literature exists regarding the
impact of climate change on ETo in other countries, such type
of research is scarce in the case of Bangladesh. However,
earlier studies were conducted on climatic variables such as
temperature and precipitation datasets. Further, climatic vari-
ables have drawn a little attention in a few works (Rahman
et al. 2019). Using observed climatic variables and CMIP5
(Coupled Model Intercomparing Project Phase 5) datasets
(from 15 selected stations across Bangladesh for the period
1975–2013, Rahman et al. (2019) investigated the current and
future trends of ETo using Modified M-K test and Sequential
M-K method. They found that most regions showed declining
trends based on the observed data, but increasing trends were
detected for modeled data. Recently, Salam et al. (2020) ana-
lyzed the spatial and temporal variations of ETo during 1980–
2017 at different climatic regions in Bangladesh. However, no
systematic comprehensive research has yet been undertaken
on trend analysis of ETo across Bangladesh both spatially and
temporally.
Agriculture is the main income source of the country, and
overexploitation of groundwater, a drastic reduction of surface
water, and prolonged drought and flood events have created a
major challenge on water resources in Bangladesh. ETo can
play a crucial role in the appraisal of crop water demand and the
significance is in increase under the climate change effects of
the country. A vital concern in forthcoming years will be the
task of enhancing agricultural crop production under water
scarcity because of climate change effects. Research on ETo
can play a critical role in focusing on the issue of managing
agricultural water demand for safeguarding food safety in
Bangladesh. Besides, it is imperative to calculate the ETo un-
der current irrigation management scenarios, crop rotation pat-
terns, environmental impact assessment, and modeling. Under
such a circumstance, a study is needed to identify the annual
(monthly) variations of ETo trends over the country, which in
itself is the novel aspect of this work. Therefore, research ad-
dressing spatiotemporal ETo trend detection is still scarce in
Bangladesh at the monthly, annual, and decadal time scales.
This study contributes to filling this gap in the literature, and
our study intends to detect spatiotemporal trends of ETo and
their magnitudes at monthly, annual, and decadal scales by
employing non-parametric tools, e.g., the Mann-Kendal test
and Sen’s slope technique. The inverse distance-weighted
(IDW) interpolation method was employed to map the spatial
trend patterns of ETo based on 25 meteorological stations dur-
ing 1975–2017 in Bangladesh. The outcomes of this work will
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
help policy formulation regarding climate change effects on
ETo in Bangladesh under the upcoming climate variability.
Data and methods
Study area
Bangladesh is situated in the northeastern part of South Asian
countries from 20° 34′ N to 26° 38′ N and 88° 01′ E to 92° 41′ E
(Fig. 1). Bangladesh is a low-lying deltaic country (Islam et al.
2020). It has significant variations in physiographic, soil types,
rainfall and temperature, agricultural pattern, and practices from
one region to another (Rahman and Islam 2019). The country is
predominated by three seasons: warm and humid summer pre-
monsoon seasons, which extend from March to May; the mon-
soon season from April to October; and arid winter post-
monsoon seasons from November to February (Rashid 1991).
The monthly lowest temperature variation is approximately
12.50 to 25.7 °C, while the monthly highest temperature extent
from 25.2 to 33.2 °C. The mean chronological temperature varies
from 18.8 to 28.7 °C, correspondingly. The country experiences
a hot tropical climate with irregular rainfall variability, diurnal
temperature range, and mild humidity (Shahid 2011; Islam et al.
2021). The mean annual rainfall is approximately 2300 mm.
Fig. 1 The location of the study area and its spatial distributions of the elevation, meteorological stations, and the river system in Bangladesh
Page 3 of 15 682
January and April are the coldest and warmest months in a great-
er portion of the country (Rahman and Lateh 2015).
Data sources and quality control
The climatic data from 25 stations with daily dataset of at least 43
years (1975–2017) were collected for calculating ETo over
Bangladesh. Six daily meteorological variables were acquired
from the BMD (Bangladesh Meteorological Department), includ-
ing (1) maximum air temperature (Tmax, °C); (2) minimum air
temperature (Tmin, °C); (3) wind speed at 2 m height (U2, ms−1);
(4) solar radiation (n, hour/day); (5) relative humidity (Rh, %). The
average temperature values are calculated by integrating monthly
minimum and maximum values of temperature at all of the defi-
nite stations. The missing values are filled by establishing linear
interpolation between neighboring meteorological stations.
The homogeneity test was performed on daily temperature
data by the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), chi-
square test, and K-S test (Table S1). Standard normal homo-
geneity test revealed that all stations displayed the level of
95% or more than significance. Autocorrelation for monthly
rainfall time series has been performed (Fig. S1). The chi-
square test implied that data of the study area were quality
controlled and showed a 99% significance level except for
the Cox’s Bazar station.
 682 Page 4 of 15 Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682

Penman-Monteith method The variance of (S)-statistics is calculated by Eq. (4)

FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (P-M) methods are recommended 1  

VarðS Þ ¼ ½nðn−1Þð2n ¼ 5Þ−∑m
i¼1 t i ðt i −1Þð2t i þ 5Þ ð4Þ
as the world’s most common and accurate method for estimat- 18
ing ETo under all climates giving evaluations that vary less where n is the number of datasets, m is the number of tied sets,
than ± 10% from the actual values (Allen et al. 1998). When and ti is the data number in the ith tied set. When the sample size
ETo measurement data were not directly available in a place, is more than 10, the computed Z-statistic is as follows (5):
FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (P-M) method was the practice to 8
calculate ETo. The PM method for estimating daily reference >
> S−1
> pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
> S>0
evapotranspiration is expressed as following Eq. (1): < varðS Þ
Z¼ 0 S¼0 ð5Þ
900 >
> S−1
0:408ΔðRn −GÞ þ γ u2 ðes −ea Þ >
ðT þ 273Þ : pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi S < 0
>
ETo ¼ ð1Þ varðS Þ
Δ þ γ ð1 þ 0:34u2 Þ
Positive values of Z denote ascending trends, whereas neg-
where ETo is the reference evapotranspiration (mm/day); Rn is ative values indicate descending trends. Trends were examined
the net radiation at the crop surface (MJ m2 day−1); G is the soil at three particular confidence level of α, which were 90%, 95%,
heat flux density (MJ m2 day−1); T is the average daily air tem- and 99%, respectively. If the absolute value of Z exceeded the
perature (°C) at a height of 2 m; u2 is the wind speed at a height of standardized value of normal Z (indicated by Z1−α/2, derived
2 m above ground surface (m s−1); es is the saturation vapor from the standard cumulative distribution table); next, the null
pressure (kPa); ea is the actual vapor pressure (kPa); Δ is the hypothesis of no trend in the dataset was rejected in this case.
slope of the saturation vapor pressure curve (kPa C−1); and γ is
the psychometric constant (kPa C−1). Generally, the daily G (soil
heat flux) value is approximately zero for computing the ETo. It Sen’s slope estimator
is little compared to Rn (net radiation), which neglects in this
work for monthly ETo computation (Allen et al. 1998). In fact, In this research, the rate of trend magnitude was determined
direct measurements of solar radiation datasets in most of the using the non-parametric Sen’s slope estimator (Sen 1968).
stations in Bangladesh were unavailable; thus, we used the This technique was used to identify the magnitude of a trend in
Ångström formula, which changes sunshine hours into Rn for time series datasets. The main advantage of this method is that
this case (Jahani et al. 2017; Salam et al. 2020). Besides, as wind the outlier’s impacts on-trend outcomes are negligibly compared
speed datasets conducted in 10 m height; thus, we altered it to 2 to other methods (Novotny and Stefan 2007a, 2007b). Sen’s
m height (Islam et al. 2018). The detailed calculation of ETo slope estimator is computed by Eq. (6) (Sen 1968)
estimation is found in FAO paper (Allen et al. 1998).  
x j −xi
β ¼ Median all j > i ð6Þ
j−i
Mann-Kendall test where xj and xi are the jth and ith values of observation
datasets. The positive values of β denote the ascending trend rate
The non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique (Mann 1945; of magnitude, while negative values represent the descending
Kendall 1975; Praveen et al. 2020) suggested by the WMO trend rate of magnitude. Since the ETo values at each station
(World Meteorological Organization) was used to detect ETo were computed, the Z value and the rate of the trend line (β) at
trends. For that reason, first S-statistics was computed by Eq. monthly, annual, and decadal scales were computed in this study.
(2) (Islam et al. 2020).

Spatial analysis
S ¼ ∑n−1
i¼1 ∑ j¼iþ1 sgnðx j −xi ) (2)
n

At present, various spatial interpolation techniques such as

where n is the length of dataset; xi is the ith observations; xj is ordinary kriging, co-kriging, and inverse distance weighted
the jth observations of data ranges. and sgn (xj−xi) is the sign (IDW) were applied for creating spatial variability of ETo
function which was defined by Eq. (3) worldwide (Rahman et al. 2019; Islam et al. 2019, 2020;
8
9 Salam et al. 2020). Of these techniques, the IDW tool was

 < þ1
x j > xi  = used to show the spatial distribution pattern in this research
sgn x j −xk ¼ 0
x j ¼ xi ð3Þ
: ; due to its acceptance, and good precision compared to other
−1 x j < xi
interpolation tools (Burrough and McDonnell 1998; Islam
et al. 2019). However, in this method, the weight factor is
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682 Page 5 of 15 682

computed by Eq. (7) (Setianto and Triandini 2013):
∑N Z i d −n
Z o ¼ i¼1 i
ð7Þ
∑Ni¼1 d −n
i
where Zo is the measured value of the variable, z at an
unknown location, Zi is the sample value at location i; di is the
distance of sample locations to the measured location; N is the
number of samples in the sum, and n is the weight of the distance
(negative exponent of d). The IDW is an extensively applied tool
in the field of spatial interpolation studies (Islam et al. 2020). The
main advantage of using the IDW is that it can compute the
spatially interpolated values faster and precisely. This tool is
inbuilt within the ArcGIS platform. The spatial pattern maps
were prepared using the ArcGIS software (version 10.2).
Results
Preliminary observation and analysis
The descriptive statistics summary of annual ETo values was
attained from historical climatic data of all stations and their
locations, mean, median, skewness, typical errors of the mean
(SEM), range, and kurtosis (Table 1). The prime value of the
median was 1509.0 (Chittagong), while the lowest median is
1269.3 (Srimongol), respectively. Standard deviation (SD) of
annual ETo ranges from 87.5 and 46.4 mm with an average
typical error of 9.4. Skewness and kurtosis of the monthly ETo
datasets lie between 1.57 to −0.5 and 3.39 to −0.80. Some neg-
ative kurtosis values are found in the dataset.
Monthly ETo trends
To understand the change in monthly ETo values, month-
ly evapotranspiration was estimated from 1975 to 2017
period. From January to May, the average evapotranspi-
ration in Bangladesh increased and the maximum value of
average monthly ETo was 183.4 mm/month in May (Fig.
S2). However, from June to December, ETo shows de-
creasing trends due to decreased surface air temperature
and the minimum average monthly ETo value was ob-
served at 63.2 mm/month (in December).
The spatial distribution of average monthly ETo values is
shown in Fig. 2. In January, most of the ETo trend patterns

Table 1 Station names and their corresponding ET0 (mm) based on the observed annually climatic data in Bangladesh during 1975–2017

Stations Lat (N) Long (E) Alt (m) Mean (mm) Median Standard deviation Range SEM Skewness Kurtosis CV

Barisal 22° 43′ 90° 22′ 2.1 1308.5 1301.1 50.25 218.4 7.66 1.08 1.07 3.84%
Bhola 22° 41′ 90° 39′ 4.3 1309 1302.9 59.33 241.7 9.05 0.8 −0.03 4.53%
Bogra 24° 51′ 89° 22′ 17.9 1362.5 1356.8 59.47 280 9.07 0.81 1.05 4.36%
Comilla 23° 26′ 91° 11′ 7.5 1347.3 1330.9 81.47 412.9 12.42 1.57 3.39 6.05%
Chandpur 23° 14′ 90° 42′ 4.88 1363.6 1364.8 60.95 272.3 9.3 0.76 0.64 4.47%
Cox’s Bazar 21° 27′ 91° 58′ 2.1 1470.4 1477.5 51.3 222 7.82 −0.34 −0.42 3.49%
Chittagong 22° 13′ 91° 48′ 5.5 1510.1 1509 62.37 260.5 9.51 −0.05 −0.39 4.13%
Dhaka 23° 46′ 90° 23′ 8.45 1379.9 1391.1 59.75 239.9 9.11 −0.23 −0.35 4.33%
Faridpur 23° 36′ 89° 51′ 8.1 1371.8 1376.4 57.41 237.7 8.75 0.07 −0.45 4.19%
Feni 23° 02′ 91° 25′ 6.4 1355.5 1345.8 69.49 323.3 10.6 1.32 2.29 5.13%
Hatiya 22° 27′ 91° 06′ 2.44 1343.8 1350.1 58.28 248.8 8.89 −0.01 −0.08 4.34%
Ishwardi 24° 09′ 89° 02′ 12.9 1376.3 1377.2 61.45 285.6 9.37 0.72 0.74 4.46%
Jessore 23° 12′ 89° 20′ 6.1 1494.6 1505.2 82.13 314.6 12.53 0.44 −0.38 5.50%
Khulna 22° 47′ 89° 34′ 2.1 1448.1 1446.7 70.96 266.5 10.82 0.57 −0.24 4.90%
Khepupara 21° 59′ 90° 41′ 1.83 1417 1423.5 46.39 201.5 7.07 −0.31 −0.01 3.27%
Mymensingh 24° 44′ 90° 25′ 18 1276.1 1275.7 87.54 330.5 13.35 0.57 −0.21 6.86%
M.Court 22° 52′ 91° 06′ 4.87 1463.5 1464.1 51.24 225.5 7.81 −0.13 −0.38 3.50%
Patuakhali 22° 20′ 90° 20′ 1.5 1309.5 1289.3 76.29 287.9 11.63 0.6 −0.61 5.83%
Rajshahi 24° 22′ 88° 42′ 19.5 1390 1376.6 71.26 305.6 10.87 0.73 0.37 5.13%
Rangpur 25° 44′ 89° 16′ 32.61 1293.6 1295.9 53.34 206.8 8.13 0.19 −0.8 4.12%
Rangamati 22° 22′ 92° 09′ 68.89 1333.8 1337.1 48.13 210.2 7.34 0.2 −0.11 3.61%
Satkhira 22° 43′ 89° 05′ 3.96 1401.5 1389.8 61.33 229.6 9.35 0.77 0.13 4.38%
Srimangal 24° 18′ 91° 44′ 21.95 1257.2 1269.3 58.33 253.8 8.9 −0.46 0.14 4.64%
Sandwip 22° 29′ 91° 26′ 2.1 1490.2 1492.7 46.59 195 7.1 −0.5 0.02 3.13%
Sylhet 24° 54′ 91° 53′ 33.53 1304.6 1302 55.06 305.5 8.4 0.3 1.49 4.22%
 682 Page 6 of 15
Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of mean monthly ETo (mm) in the 12 months over Bangladesh for the 43 years of the study period (1975–2017)
were declined due to air temperature decrease to some extent.
In February, all of the ETo trend patterns had a decreasing
trend except for six-station positioning in the southwest and
northeast parts of Bangladesh. In March and April, a decreas-
ing trend was observed in most of the stations except for the
Cox’s Bazar station. In June, the ascending trend was identi-
fied in the eastern half of the study area, while the western half
faced the combinations of ascending and descending trends.
In May and August, only one station had a significant ascend-
ing trend. It was observed that increasing trends were
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
inconsistent all over the country. In July, most of all stations
exhibited increasing patterns. In September, two northern sta-
tions of the study area had descending patterns. Either ascend-
ing or descending trends were found in October. In November
and December, only one station in the northeastern part of
Bangladesh had insignificant descending trends. The stations
with increasing, decreasing, and no trends for monthly ETo
time series are shown in Fig. 3. Although the mixtures of
descending and ascending trends were detected in the study
area, descending ETo trends are dominant in the country.
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of the monthly ETo trends across
Bangladesh. The triangles represent increasing trends (empty shape if
the trend is not statistically significant and full-shaped if it is statistically
The magnitude of the monthly ETo trend direction of se-
lected stations is represented in Table S2. As shown in
Table 2, approximately 77.33% of the stations had substantial
descending trends. However, only 22.67% of the stations
showed increasing trend patterns. The Mann-Kendall test of
monthly trend reveals that most of the ETo monthly periods
had negative Z values, indicating the descending of monthly
ETo trends (Table 2). It showed that approximately 82.67% of
Page 7 of 15 682
significant), whereas circles represent decreasing trends (empty shape if
the trend is not statistically significant and full-shaped if it is statistically
significant)
the annual ETo series displayed decreasing trends, out of
which 16.33 and 31% of stations had significant decreasing
trends at α<0.01 and α<0.05 respectively. This was declined
up to 39.67% at α<0.10 confidence level. By contrast, only
17.33% of the monthly periods had demonstrated a remark-
able ascending trend. Chittagong station showed the highest
increasing Z value (MK Z value +3.27) in February at α<0.01
level, while Mymensingh station exhibited the lowest
 682 Page 8 of 15 Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682

Table 2 The monthly values of MK Z statistics in ETo (mm) for the 25 meteorological stations for the 43 years of the study period (1975–2017)

Stations Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Barisal −3.30* −0.06 −1.89 −0.29 −0.33 0.49 1.85 −0.07 −1.1 −0.74 −1.77 −3.77*
Bhola −3.88* −1.41 −2.39* −1.28 −0.95 −0.71 0.26 −1.55 −1.88 −1.79 −1.77 −4.66*
Bogra −5.12* −2.02* −3.06* −1.88 −0.47 −0.47 1.85 −1.32 −0.24 −1.59 −2.37* −3.45*
Chandpur −4.68* −1.11 −1.51 −1.35 −1.25 −0.32 1.87 −1.37 −1.43 −2.73* −1.79 −3.91*
Comilla −4.27* −1.49 −2.22* −0.47 −1.97* 0.49 1.75 −0.33 −0.38 −2.14* −0.86 −3.60*
Cox’s Bazar −1.12 0.85 −1.25 1.25 0.06 1.84 1.19 1.06 −0.63 −0.95 −1.04 −1.65
Chittagong 3.12* 3.27* −0.02 −2.00* −5.42* −1.13 −0.38 −2.65* −2.41* −2.40* −3.39* −0.97
Dhaka −3.49* −0.27 −0.93 −1.66 −0.68 −0.69 1.37 −2.56* −2.20* −2.64* −1.93 −2.55*
Faridpur −4.17* −0.9 −1.32 −1.66 −1.02 −0.43 1.66 −2.38* −1.96 −2.68* −2.21* −3.75*
Feni −4.43* −1.38 −1.81 −1 −1.44 −0.07 1.64 −0.67 −1.16 −2.59* −1.77 −3.76*
Hatiya −3.31* −2.56* −3.34* −2.30* −2.48* −0.9 0.39 −1.06 −2.11* −3.41* −2.77* −3.67*
Ishurdi −5.07* −2.52* −2.67* −2.45* −0.93 −0.51 1.62 −1.18 −0.93 −2.49* −3.24* −4.50*
Jessore −4.61* −2.04* −2.30* −2.05* −0.69 1.25 1.8 −0.74 −0.97 −3.33* −4.1* −4.77*
Khulna −4.72* −1.92 −2.30* −1.92 −0.36 0.96 1.85 −0.36 −0.86 −2.96* −3.86* −4.85*
Khepupara −3.09* −0.9 −2.83* −1.17 −2.30* 0.61 0.36 −0.86 −1.99* −2.74* −2.39* −2.69*
Mymensing −5.46* −3.20* −2.46* −1.98* −0.52 0.64 1.65 −0.42 −1.38 −2.71* −3.59* −5.14*
M.court −2.18* −0.17 −2.41* −1.4 −2.20* 0.21 −0.18 −1.42 −2.38* −2.43* −1.42 −1.85
Patuakhali −3.61* −2.01* −2.23* −1.55 −1.55 −1.28 −0.37 −2.01* −1.94 −1.5 −1.35 −4.03*
Rajshahi −5.00* −1.85 −2.08* −2.42* −1.79 −0.12 1.49 −1 −0.89 −2.91* −3.22* −5.09*
Rangpur −4.62* −2.16* −3.69* −3.18* −1.05 −1.59 1.55 −0.76 −0.08 −1.04 −1.52 −1.32
Rangamati −1.66 1.06 −0.98 −0.98 −1.55 0.45 1.49 −0.87 −0.25 −2.94* −2.73* −3.04*
Sandwip −1.76 0.79 −1.51 0.03 −1.11 1.4 0.45 −0.27 −1.89 −1.92 −1.22 −1.65
Sathkhira −4.39* −1.45 −2.46* −1.98* −0.52 0.64 1.65 −0.42 −1.38 −2.71* −3.59* −5.14*
Srimonggol 0.86 1.75 0.63 −0.5 −1.98* −0.76 1.11 −0.28 0.09 −0.15 0.79 0.51
Sylhet −2.51* 0.86 0.46 0.5 −0.43 −0.45 1.84 −0.65 0.99 −0.96 −1.75 −0.91

decreasing value (MK Z −5.46) at α<0.10 level. It can be Annual ETo trends
concluded that monthly ETo trends had an intense decreasing
trend in most of the study area. The annual ETo values are calculated by integrating the
Significant trends (at α the level of 0.10) indicated by bold monthly values of ETo at all stations. The annual ETo had a
numbers, significant trends (at α the level of 0.05) indicated
by bold number and an asterisk; significant trends (at α the 0.4
level of 0.01) indicated by italicized numbers
0.2
The box and whisker plots demonstrate the magnitude of
monthly trends in selected areas of Bangladesh (Fig. 4). It reveals 0.0
Slope (mm/year)

that the ETo trends pattern for most of the stations was negative
in three consecutive winter months (i.e. December, January, and -0.2

February) except for July. This indicates that all given stations
-0.4
displayed a downward trend pattern in these winter months. In
July, the median was located above the zero lines. This reveals -0.6
that the descending trend was showed in most of the selected
-0.8
sites, while only July exhibited the ascending trend. Thus, as it
can be seen in Fig. 3 that among the 12 months, the -1.0
height of rectangles in the case of 4 months (January, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

February, March, and April) was higher than the other 8
months. This indicates that the variation of slopes of trend
lines (between 25 and 75 percentiles) was greater in these
months compared to other corresponding months.
Fig. 4 Box and whisker plots of magnitudes of monthly ETo trends in the
study area. The horizontal line and star in the box indicate the median and
mean value of ETo (mm). The higher and lower edges of the box indicate
the hinges (approximate higher and lower quartiles) of ETo (mm). The
whiskers extend from each quartile to the uppermost or lowermost
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
maximum value of 1664 mm in Jessore station and a mini-
mum value of 1123 mm in Srimongol station. The spatial
distribution of the average annual ETo values is represented
in Fig. 5. The annual ETo values are highly increased in the
southwestern region of Bangladesh and decreased in the
northeastern part due to low surface air temperature compared
to other stations (Fig. 6).
The magnitude of annual ETo trend directions, resulting in
Sen’s slope estimator methods is represented in Table 3. It reveals
that approximately 8% of the annual ETo series displayed increas-
ing trends and 92% exhibited decreasing trends. The magnitude of
Fig. 5 The spatial distribution of mean annual and decadal ETo (mm) values across Bangladesh for the 43 years of the study (1975–2017)
Page 9 of 15 682
trends had a maximum value of 0.05 mm/year in Srimongol sta-
tion and a minimum value of −4.73mm/year in Mymensingh
station. As seen from Table 3, annual ETo periods had negative
Z values, suggesting the descending trends of annual ETo periods.
It showed that approximately 92% of the annual ETo series
displayed descending trends, out of which 48 and 52% of stations
had statistically significant descending trends at α<0.01 and
α<0.05 confidence level, respectively. However, only 4% of the
annual time series had demonstrated a significant increasing trend
at α< 0.10 confidence level. Cox’s Bazar station showed the
highest increasing Z value (MK Z value +3.14) at α<0.01, while
 682 Page 10 of 15
Fig. 6 The spatial distribution of the annual and decadal ETo trends over
Bangladesh. The triangles represent increasing trends (empty shape if the
trend is not statistically significant and full-shaped if it is statistically
Hatia stations revealed the lowest decreasing value (MK
Z −4.65) at α< 0.10 confidence level (Table 3). Overall,
it indicates that annual ETo trends had an intense de-
creasing trend in most of the study area.
Decadal ETo trends
The decadal ETo values are estimated by summing 10 years of
annual ETo values at all selected sites. The spatial distribution
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
significant), whereas circles represent decreasing trends (empty shape if
the trend is not statistically significant and full-shaped if it is statistically
significant)
of average decadal ETo values is represented in Fig. 4. The
decadal ETo values are highly declined in the central part of
Bangladesh due to low air temperature.
The magnitude of decadal ETo trend directions is represent-
ed in Table 3. It discloses that approximately 10% of the de-
cadal ETo series revealed increasing trends and 90% displayed
decreasing trends. The slope of decadal ETo trends had a max-
imum value of 9.64 mm/decade in Jessore station and a mini-
mum value of −26.317 mm/decade in Feni station, respectively.
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682 Page 11 of 15 682

200
Table 3 The annual and decadal values of MK Z statistics in ETo (mm)
for the 43 years of the study period (1975–2017)

Stations Annual Decade 1 Decade 2 Decade 3 Decade 4 100

Barisal −1.54723 −9.96 −4 −0.7167 −2.55

slope (mm/decade)
Bhola −2.10341 −4.5429 −6.975 1.61667 −1.75 0
Bogra −2.45229 −12.417 −1.6167 −5.56 −1.55
Chandpur −1.99456 −16.64 −3.91 5.93333 −7.67
Comilla −1.85888 −29.4 −6.8571 8.825 −4.15 -100
Cox’s Bazar 0.256878 −3.375 −0.7833 −3.1571 −11.8
Chittagong −1.83166 2.83333 −13.438 −5.4667 −7.2333
Dhaka −1.83413 −6.98 −0.125 4.55 −12.825
-200
Faridpur −1.93711 −11.05 −4.63 3.97778 −10.331
Feni −1.93701 −26.317 −6.225 7.88889 −6.25
Hatiya −2.97834 −5.15 −9.62 −4.9375 −6.5
Ishurdi −2.76419 −3.6375 −7.3 −0.02 2.0875 -300
Jessore −3.68859 −15.117 −14.6 2.375 9.64
Khulna −3.08085 −14.044 −10.883 0.39167 8.675
1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2014
Khepupara −1.82283 −3.9806 −8.3969 −4.715 −9.275
Mymensing −4.14129 1.875 −9.9667 −9.12 −4.54 Fig. 7 Box and whisker plots of magnitudes of decadal ETo (mm) trends
M.court −1.78945 −2.3104 −10.917 −4.4604 −12.875 in the study area. The horizontal line and star in the box indicates median
Patuakhali −2.77955 0.3 −12.34 2.53333 −1.84 and mean value of ETo (mm). The higher and lower edges of the box
Rajshahi −3.0224 4.55 −13.35 1.63333 3.06667 indicate the hinges (approximate higher and lower quartiles) of ETo
Rangpur −2.39064 6.2 −0.1333 −7.55 −2.575 (mm). The whiskers extend from each quartile to the uppermost or
Rangamati −1.04503 −10.4 −1.8333 0.325 −1.85 lowermost
Sandwip −0.78317 −1.2722 −9.74 −2.7 −12.033
Sathkhira −2.54498 −12.979 −9.525 0.8 5.35
Srimonggol 0.275666 11.1 −16.943 −2.1167 0.2 ongoing rising temperature for the period 1975 to 2017, indi-
Sylhet −0.15217 −20.82 −10.975 4.12222 0.5 cating a “paradoxical situation” exists in a specific period of
variations in ETo over Bangladesh. The possible reason is that
Significant trends (at α the level of 0.10) indicated by bold numbers, the reduction of sunshine hours and wind speed plays a crucial
significant trends (at α the level of 0.05) indicated by bold number and
an asterisk; significant trends (at α the level of 0.01) indicated by itali- role in the ETo decrease, particularly in southeastern parts of
cized numbers the country. Simmons et al. (2010) inferred that the recent
decrease in relative humidity over the land surface may be
triggered an “evaporation paradox” on a global scale because
The value of Z based on the Mann-Kendal test at decadal time- of limited moisture vapor supply from the sea. However, no
scale is showed mostly negative Z values (Table 3). It shows agreement was found among research scholars that global
that approximately 83% of the decadal ETo series displayed dimming and brightening can contribute to the evaporation
descending trends. Of these, 54 and 29% of stations had de- paradox in some regions of the globe. However, cloud cover-
scending trends at α<0.01 and α<0.05 significance levels, re- age, dust, and aerosol might be linked to the paradoxical sit-
spectively. In contrast, only 17% of the decadal time series had uation, which deserves further investigation.
demonstrated a significant ascending trend. The variation of potential evapotranspiration mostly relies up-
On the other hand, the box and whisker plots show the on climatic factors like surface air temperature, wind speed, vapor
magnitude of decadal trends in the study area (Fig. 7). In the pressure, solar radiation, and relative humidity (Li et al. 2014;
decadal timescale, 3rd decade (1995–2004) had the lowest Zhao et al. 2014). Our study found monthly variations of ETo
descending trend, while 2nd decade (1985–1994) had the in Bangladesh, where the highest and lowest trends of ETo
highest descending trend in most stations of the country. happened in July and January. In contrast, Li et al. (2018) reported
that the highest and lowest trend patterns of ETo happened in
China in July and January–December, which is similar to this
Discussion work. In Bangladesh, Rahman et al. (2019) reported that most
regions of the country exhibited declining trends, which is consis-
The “evaporation paradox” existed in many parts of the globe, tent with the outcomes of this work. The main reason for the
including China (Xing et al. 2016), the USA (Peterson et al. declining trend of ETo may be the outcomes of climate change
1995), northern India (Jhajharia et al. 2009), and Greece effects. Salam et al. (2020) found the lowest and highest rates of
(Papaioannou et al. 2011). This issue has gained increasing ET0 values in July and January–December, which is analogous to
attention among research scholars to investigate the possible the results of our study. They also inferred that the maximum
cause of the decline in ETo with increases in surface temper- reduction of ETo happened in December–January (winter season)
ature. Our study reported that there is a descending trend in in Bangladesh, which is parallel to this study. The monthly vari-
ETo at monthly, annual and decadal scales along with the ation of ETo trends over the country may occur due to the
 682 Page 12 of 15
particular climatology of Bangladesh in which the solar radiation
prevailing in the wintertime despite the shorter duration of the day.
Similarly, the monsoon effects on cloud cover and humidity are
possibly lower in the winter months compared to summer months.
Although all climatic factors did not influence ETo change
equally. The ETo is positively connected with wind speed, tem-
perature, solar radiation, and negatively associated with rainfall
and relative humidity. During monsoon months, the temperature
is high due to several factors such as increased cloud cover,
urbanization, augment releases of aerosols and human-induced
GHGs (greenhouse gases) that led to higher magnitude of ETo
trends in July (Ji and Zhou 2011). Besides, relative humidity in
spring and autumn, the maximum temperature in winter may
also be responsible for increasing ETo (Chu et al. 2017). ETo
is decreased mainly in the winter months that may be due to the
prevailing low wind speed, as well as solar radiation.
Simultaneously, ETo decreased significantly in the winter
months, which is lower than the summer months, so that the
highest reduction in ETo occurs in January for all stations (Fig.
4). The possible explanation is that in the case of the PM formula,
this would imply larger ETo values in the wintertime than in
summer months, with probably higher sensitivity to ETo changes
in the winter months than in summer, when cloud cover and
humidity are always high. In the case of decadal scale, the highest
magnitude of the decreasing trend in ETo was observed in 1985–
1994 compared to other decades. Similar outcomes were report-
ed by Mahdi et al. (2017) in Iran, however, contrary to the find-
ings of Dinpashoh et al. (2018) with increasing trends for most of
the stations in the west and north-west parts of Iran. It was found
that the ETo trends are decreasing over time. The southwestern
part showed the highest ascending trend and the northeastern part
revealed the lowest descending trend of potential
evapotranspiration in the country. Besides, Acharjee et al.
(2017) and Jerin et al. (2021) found significant declining trends
Fig. 8 a Land subsidence in an observed land surface in the eastern Bangladesh. b Shrinkage of the Kholpetua River in the southwestern Bangladesh
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
of ETo in most of the dry months because of rising relative
humidity and declining wind speed and sunshine hours in the
northwest region of Bangladesh.
Evapotranspiration is widely recognized as one of the pivotal
elements of the hydrological cycle, which is dreadfully important
for water resource development, irrigation management, solar
energy system, and crop production. We observe that the mag-
nitude of ETo had decreased significantly in the monthly, annual,
and decadal scales for the period 1975–2017. The change in
potential evapotranspiration trends would affect regional ecology
and vegetable restoration. A decline in ETo and an increase in
rainfall may be responsible for shortage of evaporative demand,
so water scarcity problems like drought events would occur fre-
quently in the forthcoming period. Moreover, various hydrolog-
ical activities including soil moisture conditions, groundwater
extraction, and surface runoff are highly affected by ETo chang-
es. For instance, the drought hinders the development of crop
yield production and physical assets (Kabir and Hossen 2019).
Soil layers may be seriously damaged and land subsidence might
occur in different parts of Bangladesh (Fig. 8a). Besides, the
groundwater level will increase over time due to heavy rainfall
that will adversely affect the agricultural sector of the country
(Islam et al. 2018, 2020). Due to a decline in ETo, water avail-
ability increases to damage the crop production in the winter
Rabi season. Soil moisture contents increase triggers porosity
and shorten the specific yield of crop varieties, while simulta-
neously, land subsidence occurs frequently in the floodplains
(Dinpashoh et al. 2018). Because of land subsidence, the Chola
lake in Bangladesh will disappear in the future (Fig. 8b).
As an agriculture-based country, this sector needs more
adaptive measures to cope with climate change effects. The
authorities will encourage farmers to grow the high yielding
crop instead of low yielding rooted water crop. Sustainable
water resource management is an important issue for economic
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
development, food self-sufficiency along with storage of fresh-
water. This study focuses on exploring variations and trends of
ETo in Bangladesh, which helps the policy-maker take effec-
tive decisions to overcome existing water resource problems.
Conclusion
We identify trends in monthly annual and decadal ETo time
series datasets based on the FAO-56 PM formula in
Bangladesh. Results disclosed that most of the monthly ETo
values (approximately 83% of the stations) had descending
trends, while only nearby 17% of the ETo value had ascending
trends. At the annual and decadal timescales, it was observed that
most stations (92% and 73% of the sites, respectively) had de-
clining ETo trends. Half of the sites (nearby 52%) exhibited
decreasing annual ETo trends, which were significant at
α<0.05 confidence level. However, few stations (4% of the sites)
depicted an increasing annual ETo trend at α<0.10 confidence
level. At the annual and decadal timescales, analogous to month-
ly timescales, ETo decreased overtime in Bangladesh. The abrupt
monthly descending trend was detected in the winter months.
The magnitude of the declining ETo trend was found as −5.46
mm/year at the Mymensingh station. Such a declining trend in
monthly ETo suggests that crop water demand decreased in the
region. The results also indicate that a paradoxical shifting (a
declining trend pattern) of ETo exists at the monthly, annual,
and decadal scales in Bangladesh due to a reduction in sun-
shine hours and wind speed. Future research should focus
on the driving factors of the paradoxical shifting of ETo
in Bangladesh. Changes in agricultural farming patterns
and the use of remote sensing methods can be recom-
mended as a long-term process of solving the water scar-
city problem. Hence, all water scarcity problems, particu-
larly the availability of freshwater resources should be
stored in large reservoirs scientifically. Otherwise, there
is a high probability of potential drought risk.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary
material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07010-9.
Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD) for sharing climate dataset used in
this research work. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for im-
proving the quality of the papers. We also acknowledge the Begum
Rokeya University, Rangpur, Bangladesh, for different forms of support
during the study period. We acknowledge Mr. H.M. Touhidul Islam for
preparing some analyses in this research.
Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.
Page 13 of 15 682
References
Acharjee TK, Halsema G, Ludwig F, Hellegers P (2017) Declining trends
of water requirements of dry season Boro rice in the north-west
Bangladesh, Agric. Water Manage 180:148–159
Allen RG, Periera LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration:
guideline for computing crop water requirement. FAO irrigation and
drainage paper no. 56, pp.326.
Ayub R, and Miah MM (2011) Effects of change in temperature on
reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) in the northwest region of
Bangladesh. In: The fourth annual paper meet and 1st civil engineer-
ing congress, December, 2011, Dhaka, pp 978–984
Bandyopadhyay A, Bhadra A, Raghuwanshi NS, Singh R (2009)
Temporal trends in estimates of reference evapotranspiration over
India. J Hydrol Eng 14(5):508–515
Burrough PA, McDonnell RA (1998) Creating continuous surfaces from
point data. In: Burrough PA, Goodchild MF, McDonnell RA,
Switzer P, Worboys M (eds) Principles of geographic information
systems. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 132–161
Chu R, Li M, Shen S, Islam ARMT (2017) Quantifying climatic impact
on reference evapotranspiration trends in Huai River Basin of
Eastern China. Water 10:144
Climate Change Cell (2008) Economic modeling of climate change ad-
aptation needs for physical infrastructures in Bangladesh
Department of Environment, Ministry of Environment and Forests,
Component 4b. Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme,
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Bangladesh
Croitoru A, Piticar A, Dragota CS, Burada DC (2013) Recent changes in
reference evapotranspiration in Romania. Glob Planet Chang 111:
127–132
Darshana A, Pandey A, Pandey RP (2013) Analyzing trends in reference
evapotranspiration and weather variables in the Tons River Basin in
Central India. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27:1407–1421. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00477-012-0677-7
De la Casa AC, Ovando GG (2016) Variation of reference evapotranspi-
ration in the central region of Argentina between 1941 and 2010. J
Hydrol Reg Stud 5:66–79
Dinpashoh Y, Asl SJ, Rasouli AA, Foroughi M, Singh VP (2018) Impact
of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west
and NW of Iran). Theor Appl Climatol 136:185–201. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00704-018-2462-0
Duan W, Chen Y, Zou S, Nover D (2019) Managing the water-climate-
food nexus for sustainable development in Turkmenistan. J Clean
Prod 220:212–224
Elbeltagi A, Kumari N, Dharpure JK, Mokhtar A, Alsafadi K, Kumar M,
Mehdinejadiani B, Etedali HR, Brouziyne Y, Islam ARMT, Kuriqi
A (2021) Prediction of Combined Terrestrial Evapotranspiration
Index (CTEI) Over Large River Basin Based on Machine
Learning Approaches. Water 13(4):547, SCOPUS/ISI Index, IF:
2.544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040547
Feng Y, Jia Y, Cui NB, Zhao L, Li C, Gong DZ (2017) Calibration of
Hargreaves model for reference evapotranspiration estimation in
Sichuan basin of southwest China. Agric Water Manag 181:1–9
Fu Z, Stoy PC, Luo Y, Chen J, Sun J, Montagnani L, Wohlfahrt G,
Rahman AF, Rambal S, Bernhofer C, Wang J, Shirkey G, Niu S
(2017) Climate controls over the net carbon uptake period and am-
plitude of net ecosystem production in temperate and boreal ecosys-
tems. Agric For Meteorol 243:9–18
Ghose B, Islam ARMT, Islam HM, Hasanuzzaman M, Huang J, Hu Z,
Moniruzzaman M, Gustave W, Karim M, Ibrahim SI (2021) Rain-
Fed Rice Yield Fluctuation to Climatic Anomalies in Bangladesh.
Int J Plant Prod, Springer, SCOPUS/ISI Index, IF 1:13. https://doi.
org/10.1007/s42106-021-00131-x
Guixia Y, Denghua L, Yahong K (2014) Changes of Pan Evaporation and
Its Influence Factors in China. Nat Environ Pollut 13(3):601–606
 682 Page 14 of 15
Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1982) Estimating potential evapotranspira-
tion. J Irrig Drain Engr, ASCE 108(IR3):223–230
Holden PB, Edwards NR, Ridgwell A, Wilkinson RD, Fraedrich K,
Lunkeit F, Pollitt H, Mercure JF, Salas P, Lam A, Knobloch F,
Chewpreecha U, Viñuales JE (2018) Climate–carbon cycle uncer-
tainties and the Paris Agreement. Nat Clim Chang 8(7):609–613
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Climate
change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge
University Press, New York
Islam ARMT, Shen S, Yang S (2018) Predicting design water require-
ment of winter paddy under climate change condition using frequen-
cy analysis in Bangladesh. Agric Water Manag 195(C):58–70
Islam ARMT, Shen S, Yang S, Hu Z, Chu R (2019) Assessing recent
impacts of climate change on design water requirement of Boro rice
season in Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 138(1-2):97–113.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02818-8
Islam ARMT, Ahmed I, Rahman MS (2020) Trends in cooling and
heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of
the possible causes of changes. Nat Hazards 101:879–909. https://
doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
Islam ARMT, Talukdar S, Mahato S, Ziaul S, Eibek KU, Akhter S, Pham
QB, Mohammadi B, Karimi F, Linh NTT (2021) Machine learning
algorithm-based risk assessment of riparian wetlands in Padma
River Basin of Northwest Bangladesh, Environ Sci Pollut Res,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12806-z.
Jahani B, Dinpashoh Y, Raisi NA (2017) Evaluation and development of
empirical models for estimating daily solar radiation. Renew Sust
Energ Rev 73:878–891. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.124
Ji Y, Zhou G (2011) Important factors governing the incompatible trends
of annual pan evaporation: evidence from a small scale region. Clim
Change 106:303–314
Jerin JN, Islam HM, Islam ARMT, Shahid S, Hu Z, Badhon MA, Chu R,
Elbeltagi A (2021) Spatiotemporal trends in reference evapotranspi-
ration and its driving factors in Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol
144:793–808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03566-4
Jhajharia D, Shrivastava SK, Sarkar D, Sarkar S (2009) Temporal char-
acteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of
northeast India. Agric For Meteorol 149:763–777
Kabir MH, Hossen MN (2019) Impacts of flood and its possible solution
in Bangladesh. Disaster Adv 12(10):48–57
Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin&
Co. Ltd, London
Khalil AA (2013) Effect of climate change on evapotranspiration in
Egypt. Researcher 55:7–12. https://doi.org/10.9780/22307850
Li Z, Chen Y, Yang J, Wang Y (2014) Potential evapotranspiration and
its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of Northwest
China. Hydrol Process 28:1025–1031
Li M, Chu R, Shen S, Islam ARMT (2018) Dynamic analysis of pan
evaporation variations in the Huai River Basin, a climate transition
zone in eastern China. Sci Total Environ 625:496–509. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.317
Li M, Chu RH, Islam ARMT, Shen SH (2021) Characteristics of surface
evapotranspiration and its response to climate and land use and land
cover in the Huai River Basin of eastern China. Environ Sci Pollut
Res 28(1):683–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10432-9
Limjirakan S, Limsakul A (2012) Trends in Thailand pan evaporation
from 1970 to 2007. Atmos Res 108:122–127
Liu X, Zhang D (2013) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in
Northwest China: The roles of changing wind speed and surface air
temperature. Hydrol Process 27:3941–3948
Mahdi D, Sanaz J, Samad E (2017) Climate change impacts on spatial-
temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration in Iran. Water
Harvest Res 2(1):13–23. https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2017.592
Mann H (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):
245–259
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
Mojid MA, Rannu RP, Karim NN (2015) Climate change impacts on
reference crop evapotranspiration in northwest hydrological region
of Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 35:4041–4046. https://doi.org/10.
1002/joc.4260
Novotny EV, Stefan HG (2007a) Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of
climate change. J Hydrol 334:319–333
Novotny EV, Stefan HG (2007b) Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of
climate change. J Hydrol 334:319–333
Pandey PK, Nyori T, Pandey V (2017) Estimation of reference evapo-
transpiration using data driven techniques under limited data condi-
tions. Model Earth Syst Environ 3:1449–1461. https://doi.org/10.
1007/s40808-017-0367-z
Papaioannou G, Kitsara G, Athanasatos A (2011) Impact of global dim-
ming and brightening on reference evapotranspiration in Greece. J
Geophys Res 116:D09107. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015525
Peterson TC, Golubev VS, Groisman PY (1995) Evaporation losing its
strength. Nature 377:687–688
Praveen B, Talukdar S, Shahfahad MS, Mondal J, Sharma P, Islam
ARMT, Rahman A (2020) Analyzing trend and forecasting of rain-
fall changes in India using non-parametrical and machine learning
approaches. Sci Rep 10:10342. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-
67228-7
Rahman MS, Islam ARMT (2019) Are precipitation concentration and
intensity changing in Bangladesh overtimes? Analysis of the possi-
ble causes of changes in precipitation systems. Sci Total Environ
690:370–387
Rahman MR, Lateh H (2015) Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-
temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall
data using GIS and time series analysis model. Theor Appl Climatol
128:27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1688-3
Rahman MA, Yunsheng L, Sultana N, Ongoma V (2019) Analysis of
reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in
Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets. Meteorog Atmos
Phys 131(3):639–655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0596-3
Rashid HE (1991) Geography of Bangladesh. University Press Ltd,
Dhaka
Salam R, Islam ARMT (2020) Potential of RT, Bagging and RS ensem-
ble learning algorithms for reference evapotranspiration prediction
using climatic data-limited humid region in Bangladesh. J Hydrol
590:125241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125241
Salam R, Islam ARMT, Pham QB, Dehghani M, Al-Ansari N, Linh NTT
(2020) The optimal alternative for quantifying reference evapotrans-
piration in climatic sub-regions of Bangladesh. Sci Rep 10(1):
20171. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77183-y
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficients based on
Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389
Setianto A, Triandini T (2013) Comparison of kriging and inverse dis-
tance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods in lineament extraction
and analysis. J SE Asian Appl Geol 5(1):21–29
Shahid S (2011) Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of
dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Clim Chang 105:
433–453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9895-5
Simmons AJ, Willett KM, Jones PD, Thorne PW, Dee D (2010) Low-
frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature
and precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded
observational datasets. J Geophys Res 115:D01110. https://doi.org/
10.1029/2009JD012442
Song X, Zhu K, Lu F, Xiao W (2017) Spatial and temporal variation of
reference evapotranspiration under climate change: a case study
inthe Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. Available Online 6 January
2017, nh2017039. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.039
Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A, Hosseinzadeh P, Mohammadi K (2011)
Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half
of Iran. Agric For Meteorol 151:128–113
Tao XE, Chen H, Xu CY, Hou YK, Jie MX (2015) Analysis and predic-
tion of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in
Arab J Geosci (2021) 14:682
Xiangjiang River Basin, China. Water Sci Eng 8(4):273–281.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2015.11.002
Xing W, Wang W, Shao Q, Yu Z, Yang T, Fu J (2016) Periodic fluctu-
ation of reference evapotranspiration during the past five decades:
Does Evaporation Paradox really exist in China? Sci Rep 6:39503.
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39503
Yadav S, Deb P, KumarS PV, Pandey PK (2016) Trends in major and
minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference
evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India.
J Mt Sci 13(2):302–315
Page 15 of 15 682
Yin Y, Wu S, Dai E (2010) Determining factors in potential evapotrans-
piration changes over China in the period 1971–2008. Chin Sci Bull
55:3329–3337
Zhang D, Liu X, Hong H (2013) Assessing the effect of climate change
on reference evapotranspiration in China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27:
1871–1881. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0723-0
Zhao L, Xia J, Sobkowiak L, Li Z (2014) Climatic Characteristics of
Reference Evapotranspiration in the Hai River Basin and Their
Attribution. Water 6(845):1482–1499