OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT – I

ASSIGNMENT
DATE: 15-10-2023

PREPARED BY – SUBMITTED TO –
GROUP NO. 4 PROF. S VENKATARAMANAIAH

19006 – ANAK SHARMA

19007 – ANKIT JAISWAL
19008 – ANKIT SHARMA
19011 – ATUL GUPTA
19023 – LAKSHMI MISRA
Importance of Religious Economy in India

Introduction:
Religious economy refers to the economic impact and influence of religious activities, institutions, and
practices within a society. In the context of India, the religious economy is significantly important for
below reasons:
Cultural and Historical Significance: Religion has played a central role in the culture and history of
India for ages. India is the birthplace of major religions such as Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and
Sikhism, and is also home to a diverse range of religious traditions. These religions have shaped the
values, beliefs, and practices of the Indian population, and they continue to be a fundamental aspect of
Indian identity.
Tourism and Pilgrimage: India is a major destination for religious tourism and pilgrimage. Millions
of domestic and international tourists visit India each year to explore its religious sites, temples,
mosques, churches, gurudwaras, and other places of worship. This influx of tourists contributes
significantly to the country's economy by creating jobs, boosting the hospitality industry, and generating
revenue through entrance fees and donations at religious sites.
Economic Activities: Religious activities, such as festivals, rituals, and ceremonies, drive economic
activities in various sectors. These include the sale of religious items, textiles, food, and offerings, as
well as the services provided by priests, astrologers, and other religious professionals. These economic
activities have a substantial impact on local and national economies.
Philanthropy and Charity: Religious organizations and individuals often engage in philanthropic and
charitable activities. These include running schools, hospitals, and orphanages, and providing aid to the
disadvantaged. Such activities contribute to the welfare of society and help alleviate poverty and social
issues.
Social Cohesion: Religion plays a vital role in promoting social cohesion and unity in India, which is
a highly diverse and pluralistic society. It fosters a sense of belonging and provides a moral framework
for individuals and communities, contributing to social stability and harmony.
International Relations: India's diverse religious landscape has implications for its international
relations. It engages with countries and organizations that share religious ties, such as Nepal, Sri Lanka,
and nations with a significant Indian diaspora. Interactions with these countries often involve religious
and cultural exchanges, trade, and cooperation.
Identity and Values: Religion plays a central role in shaping the identity and values of individuals and
communities in India. It influences moral, ethical, and social norms, which in turn impact various
aspects of life, including business practices, social interactions, and personal relationships.
Introduction to Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir
The Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir, situated in the picturesque Trikuta Mountains of the Indian state of
Jammu and Kashmir, stands as an enduring symbol of faith and devotion. It is dedicated to the Hindu
goddess Vaishno Devi, also known as Mata Rani or Vaishnavi, who is believed to fulfil the wishes of
her devotees. Every year, millions of pilgrims from all corners of India and abroad embark on a spiritual
journey to this revered shrine. The temple's religious, cultural, and economic significance is immense,
and it plays a pivotal role in the local and regional economy.
This paper delves into the multifaceted realm of the religious economy surrounding the Vaishno Devi
Mata Mandir, exploring the various aspects that contribute to its economic influence and the broader
socio-economic ecosystem that has developed around it.
Historical and Religious Significance
Before delving into the economic aspects, it is essential to appreciate the historical and religious
importance of the Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir. The temple's legend is deeply embedded in Hindu
mythology, and it is believed to date back to several centuries. According to popular belief, Vaishno
Devi was a devotee of Lord Vishnu who took the form of a goddess to protect herself from a malevolent
deity named Bhairon Nath. She then took refuge in the Trikuta Mountains, and her divine presence in
the form of the Vaishno Devi shrine has attracted pilgrims for generations.
The temple is perched at an altitude of approximately 5,200 feet and consists of three cave shrines,
symbolizing the three forms of the goddess – Mahakali, Mahalakshmi, and Mahasaraswati. Pilgrims
undertake a strenuous trek of approximately 12 kilometres through the mountains to reach the sacred
cave, with many choosing to cover this distance on foot. The pilgrimage, often involving arduous climbs
and challenging terrain, is considered an act of deep devotion, penance, and an opportunity to seek
blessings from Vaishno Devi.
Devotees visit the temple to have their wishes fulfilled and express their gratitude for answered prayers.
The spiritual significance of the temple is profound, and it plays a central role in the lives of countless
individuals and families. This religious fervour and devotion have created the foundation for the
temple's economic activities and the broader religious economy.
Tourism and Hospitality
One of the most noticeable and influential aspects of the religious economy surrounding the Vaishno
Devi Mata Mandir is the flourishing tourism and hospitality industry. The temple's reputation as a sacred
pilgrimage site has made it a magnet for tourists and devotees alike. As a result, the region has seen the
establishment of various facilities to accommodate the needs of the pilgrims, creating a thriving
hospitality sector.
1. Hotels and Guesthouses: The area around the temple has seen the development of numerous hotels,
guesthouses, and lodges to cater to the accommodation needs of the visiting pilgrims. These
establishments offer a range of options, from basic accommodations to more luxurious hotels, providing
a range of choices to suit different budgets.
2. Restaurants and Eateries: The constant influx of pilgrims has given rise to a plethora of restaurants
and eateries serving a variety of cuisines, including traditional Indian fare. These dining establishments
not only cater to the dietary requirements of pilgrims but also provide employment opportunities in the
culinary sector.
3. Shopping: Local vendors and shops around the temple sell a wide array of items, including religious
artifacts, souvenirs, and prasad (offerings). These shops are an integral part of the temple's economic
ecosystem, providing opportunities for small businesses and local entrepreneurs.
4. Transportation: To facilitate the movement of pilgrims, various modes of transportation are
available. This includes buses, taxis, and a ropeway that transports devotees between Katra (the base
camp) and the temple. The transportation industry around the temple has created jobs and economic
opportunities for residents.
The tourism and hospitality industry has brought economic prosperity to the region, with numerous
individuals and businesses benefiting directly or indirectly. As a result, the economy of Katra, the base
camp for the pilgrimage, has seen significant growth and development, thanks to the constant stream of
pilgrims and tourists.
Donations and Offerings
Donations and offerings made by devotees at the Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir constitute a substantial
portion of its economic activity. Pilgrims express their devotion and seek blessings by making monetary
contributions to the temple. These donations are made as a sign of gratitude, as part of a vow, or simply
as an act of faith.
The donations are collected and managed by the Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine Board, which oversees
the operations of the temple complex. The funds generated from these donations are vital for the
maintenance and expansion of the temple, as well as for carrying out various charitable and religious
activities. The donations contribute to the temple's self-sufficiency and its ability to provide services to
the devotees.
While specific figures for annual donations can vary, they often amount to significant sums, making the
Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir financially self-sustaining. This financial independence allows the temple
to invest in infrastructure, security, and the overall enhancement of the pilgrimage experience.
Infrastructure Development
The government, in collaboration with the temple trust and other organizations, invests in the
development of infrastructure and amenities in and around the temple. This infrastructure development
serves multiple purposes.
Firstly, it aims to enhance the comfort and safety of pilgrims. Secondly, it supports the growing number
of visitors to the region. Finally, it provides employment opportunities in the construction and
maintenance sectors.
Infrastructure development includes the construction and maintenance of roads, walkways, and
staircases to facilitate the pilgrimage. The region has also seen improvements in sanitation facilities,
waste management, and other amenities to ensure a clean and hygienic environment for the pilgrims.
Additionally, measures are taken to enhance security and safety, given the challenging terrain of the
pilgrimage.
Investments in infrastructure not only improve the overall experience for the pilgrims but also contribute
to the economic development of the region. Construction and maintenance projects generate jobs and
stimulate economic activity.
Employment Opportunities
The Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir provides employment opportunities to a significant number of
individuals in various capacities. These opportunities range from religious roles to administrative,
security, and support functions:
1. Priests and Religious Personnel: The temple complex employs a team of priests and religious
personnel responsible for conducting the daily rituals, prayers, and ceremonies. These individuals play
a crucial role in maintaining the sanctity of the temple.
2. Administrative Staff: Administrative roles, including management, accounting, and coordination,
are essential for the efficient functioning of the temple complex. Employment opportunities are created
in these areas, and individuals with a diverse skill set are required.
3. Security Personnel: Given the large number of pilgrims, security is a paramount concern. Security
personnel are employed to ensure the safety of devotees and to maintain order within the temple
complex.
4. Support Staff: Various support roles are necessary for the day-to-day operations of the temple. This
includes maintenance personnel, cleaners, and those involved in the transportation services.
The availability of stable employment at the temple complex contributes to the livelihoods of residents,
thereby improving their economic well-being.
Forecasting the number of pilgrims at the Vaishno Devi Mata Mandir, can be a complex task that
depends on various factors. Accurate predictions would require access to historical data, statistical
modelling, and consideration of numerous variables. Some of the factors that can influence the number
of pilgrims include:
Time of year: The number of pilgrims can vary significantly throughout the year, with major festivals
and holidays drawing larger crowds.
Special events: The temple often hosts special events, rituals, and festivals that can attract a surge in
visitors.
Travel restrictions: Government-imposed travel restrictions, especially during the COVID-19
pandemic, can significantly impact the number of pilgrims.
Economic factors: Economic conditions can influence people's ability to travel and make pilgrimage
trips.
Marketing and promotions: Temple's marketing efforts and promotional campaigns can impact visitor
numbers.
Infrastructure changes: The development of transportation infrastructure, accommodation facilities,
and other amenities can affect the temple's capacity to host pilgrims.
Historical data: Past attendance records can be used to identify trends and patterns that may help in
making forecasts.
Weather Conditions: Because of high attitude and weather conditions, land slide in the mountains may
also impact the footfall.
Political unrest: Any unrest because of the political situation in J&K, may lead to closure of the temple.
To create a forecasting model, we typically gather historical data on temple attendance and other
relevant variables. The accuracy of our forecast would depend on the quality and quantity of data
available and the sophistication of the modelling approach.
For Forecasting: In this case, by using the Moving average 3 months, Moving average 6 months, and
Exponential Smoothening (alpha = 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75), MAD, MAPE and Tracking Signal is calculated.
After analysis, we have found that MAD for Exponential smoothening with alpha = 0.75 to be the most
desirable. Because MAD is lowest and tracking signal is second lowest.
It's worth noting that forecasting the number of pilgrims with high precision can be challenging due to
the dynamic nature of the factors involved.
For Aggregate Planning:
For carrying out the analysis, we have the following assumptions:
1) The number of pilgrims considered to be arriving for darshan every hour is 60
2) Revenue lost due to No darshan per pilgrim is INR 10.
3) There are 3 shifts in a day of 8 hours each
4) There are 8 no. of workers required in 3 shifts every 24 hours
5) The cost of each worker is INR 800/day
6) The cost of hiring 1 worker is INR 1200/day
7) The cost of firing 1 worker is INR 2400/day
8) The cost of Idle time for 1 worker for 1 hour is INR 100/day
Analysis of Aggregate Planning suggests that the total cost for Level Strategy is INR 97,417,940 and
the total cost for Chase Strategy is 51,568,400. Hence, the approach of Chase strategy is more
appropriate than Level in the case of planning of staff count at the temple.

Reference:
Yatra Statistics: http://legacy.maavaishnodevi.org/yatra_statistics.aspx
 Forecasting for number of pilgrims

Error for Error for Error for

Exponential Exponential Exponential
Moving Average (3 Moving Average (6 Error for 3 Error for 6 Exponential Exponential Exponential Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error ES Forecast Error ES Forecast Error ES
Month Actual Smoothing (Alpha Smoothing Smoothing
Months) Months) month month Smoothing Smoothing Smoothing MA 3 Months MA 6 Months Alpha = 0.25 Alpha = 0.5 Alpha = 0.75
= 0.25) (Alpha = 0.50) (Alpha = 0.75)
(Alpha = 0.25) (Alpha = 0.50) (Alpha = 0.75)
January 4,08,061
February 3,89,549 4,08,061 4,08,061 4,08,061 -18,512 -18,512 -18,512 18,512 18,512 18,512
March 5,25,198 4,03,433 3,98,805 3,94,177 1,21,765 1,26,393 1,31,021 1,21,765 1,26,393 1,31,021
April 3,21,735 4,40,936 4,33,874 4,62,002 4,92,443 -1,19,201 -1,12,139 -1,40,267 -1,70,708 1,19,201 1,12,139 1,40,267 1,70,708
May 45,155 4,12,161 4,05,839 3,91,868 3,64,412 -3,67,006 -3,60,684 -3,46,713 -3,19,257 3,67,006 3,60,684 3,46,713 3,19,257
June 1,98,490 2,97,363 3,15,668 2,18,512 1,24,969 -98,873 -1,17,178 -20,022 73,521 98,873 1,17,178 20,022 73,521
July 5,00,671 1,88,460 3,14,698 2,86,374 2,08,501 1,80,110 3,12,211 1,85,973 2,14,297 2,92,170 3,20,561 3,12,211 1,85,973 2,14,297 2,92,170 3,20,561
August 5,21,970 2,48,105 3,30,133 3,39,948 3,54,586 4,20,531 2,73,865 1,91,837 1,82,022 1,67,384 1,01,439 2,73,865 1,91,837 1,82,022 1,67,384 1,01,439
Sept. 6,39,162 4,07,044 3,52,203 3,85,454 4,38,278 4,96,610 2,32,118 2,86,959 2,53,708 2,00,884 1,42,552 2,32,118 2,86,959 2,53,708 2,00,884 1,42,552
Oct. 7,53,561 5,53,934 3,71,197 4,48,881 5,38,720 6,03,524 1,99,627 3,82,364 3,04,680 2,14,841 1,50,037 1,99,627 3,82,364 3,04,680 2,14,841 1,50,037
Nov. 6,46,415 6,38,231 4,43,168 5,25,051 6,46,140 7,16,052 8,184 2,03,247 1,21,364 275 -69,637 8,184 2,03,247 1,21,364 275 69,637
December 6,38,207 6,79,713 5,43,378 5,55,392 6,46,278 6,63,824 -41,506 94,829 82,815 -8,071 -25,617 41,506 94,829 82,815 8,071 25,617
6,79,394 6,16,664 5,76,096 6,42,242 6,44,611
3,99,420 13,45,208 6,72,138 4,68,363 3,15,400 1,83,621 2,24,201 1,71,742 1,39,594 1,38,442

0.25
Alpha 0.5
0.75

Sq FE ES Alpha = Sq FE ES Alpha = Sq FE ES Alpha = MAPE ES Alpha = MAPE ES Alpha = MAPE ES Alpha =

Sq FE MA 3M Sq FE MA 6M MAPE MA 3M MAPE MA 6M
0.25 0.50 0.75 0.25 0.5 0.75

34,26,94,144 34,26,94,144 34,26,94,144 5% 5% 5%

Exponential Exponential Exponential
Moving Average Moving Average
14,82,67,15,225 15,97,51,90,449 17,16,65,02,441 23% 24% 24% Smoothing Smoothing Smoothing
(3 Months) (6 Months)
(Alpha = 0.25) (Alpha = 0.50) (Alpha = 0.75)
14,20,88,78,401 12,57,52,11,391 19,67,46,91,022 29,14,11,35,910 37% 35% 44% 44% MAD 1,83,621 2,24,201 1,71,742 1,39,594 1,38,442
1,34,69,31,59,365 1,30,09,32,63,455 1,20,21,00,77,726 1,01,92,49,92,142 813% 799% 768% 768%
9,77,58,04,214 13,73,07,60,582 40,08,65,468 5,40,53,02,978 50% 59% 10% 10% MSE 47,40,83,14,565 58,37,27,74,543 39,03,72,43,102 32,41,46,04,547 28,66,97,87,816
97,47,57,08,521 34,58,59,56,729 45,92,33,13,032 85,36,34,18,464 1,02,75,94,77,436 62% 37% 43% 58% 58%
75,00,18,55,648 36,80,14,34,569 33,13,19,86,798 28,01,74,34,841 10,28,99,31,149 52% 37% 35% 32% 32% MAPE 121% 36% 101% 91% 91%
53,87,89,20,669 82,34,53,72,028 64,36,79,80,302 40,35,44,00,289 20,32,10,22,658 36% 45% 40% 31% 31%
39,85,08,06,044 1,46,20,21,01,041 92,83,01,10,491 46,15,66,65,352 22,51,10,88,200 26% 51% 40% 29% 29% Tracking Signal 2.18 6.00 3.91 3.36 2.28
6,69,77,856 41,30,92,75,260 14,72,92,82,663 75,357 4,84,92,78,479 1% 31% 19% 0% 0%
1,72,27,20,365 8,99,25,07,631 6,85,83,56,041 6,51,36,911 65,62,40,436 7% 15% 13% 1% 1%

47,40,83,14,565 58,37,27,74,543 39,03,72,43,102 32,41,46,04,547 28,66,97,87,816 121% 36% 101% 91% 91%

8,00,000
7,50,000
7,00,000
6,50,000

6,00,000
5,50,000
5,00,000
4,50,000
4,00,000

3,50,000
3,00,000
2,50,000
2,00,000

1,50,000
1,00,000
50,000
-
January February March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. December

Actual Moving Average (3 Months) Moving Average (6 Months) Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.25) Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.50) Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.75)
 Aggregate Planning for number workers needed to attend pilgrims

Assumptions Level
Average no. of pilgrims per hour = 60
Cost of 1 pilgrim with no darshan = 10 Month January February March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. December Total
Cost of 1 hour idle time of worker per day = 100 Actual 4,08,061 3,89,549 5,25,198 3,21,735 45,155 1,98,490 5,00,671 5,21,970 6,39,162 7,53,561 6,46,415 6,38,207 55,88,174
Cost of 1 worker per day = 800 No. of Days 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 365
Cost of Hiring per day = 1200 Worker Available 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 288
Cost of Firing per day = 2400 No. of working Hours available 5,580 5,040 5,580 5,400 5,580 5,400 5,580 5,580 5,400 5,580 5,400 5,580 65,700
Workers at 3 shifts = 8 No. of pilgrims can be attended 3,34,800 3,02,400 3,34,800 3,24,000 3,34,800 3,24,000 3,34,800 3,34,800 3,24,000 3,34,800 3,24,000 3,34,800 39,42,000
No. of pilgrims with no darshan 73,261 87,149 1,90,398 - - - 1,65,871 1,87,170 3,15,162 4,18,761 3,22,415 3,03,407 20,63,594
Total Idle Time of worker - - - 2,265 2,89,645 1,25,510 - - - - - - 4,17,420

Cost of Worker per month 29,76,000 26,88,000 29,76,000 28,80,000 29,76,000 28,80,000 29,76,000 29,76,000 28,80,000 29,76,000 28,80,000 29,76,000 3,50,40,000
Cost of Worker Idle time per month - - - 2,26,500 2,89,64,500 1,25,51,000 - - - - - - 4,17,42,000
Cost of pilgrims with no darshan 7,32,610 8,71,490 19,03,980 - - - 16,58,710 18,71,700 31,51,620 41,87,610 32,24,150 30,34,070 2,06,35,940
Total Cost 9,74,17,940

Chase

Month January February March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. December Total
Actual 4,08,061 3,89,549 5,25,198 3,21,735 45,155 1,98,490 5,00,671 5,21,970 6,39,162 7,53,561 6,46,415 6,38,207 55,88,174
No. of Days 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 22 356
Worker Available 24 30 31 38 23 3 15 36 38 48 55 47 388
No. of working Hours available 5,580 6,300 7,208 8,550 5,348 675 3,488 8,370 8,550 11,160 12,375 7,755 85,358
No. of pilgrims can be attended 3,34,800 3,78,000 4,32,450 5,13,000 3,20,850 40,500 2,09,250 5,02,200 5,13,000 6,69,600 7,42,500 4,65,300 51,21,450
No. of pilgrims with no darshan 73,261 11,549 92,748 - - 1,57,990 2,91,421 19,770 1,26,162 83,961 - 1,72,907 10,29,769
Total Idle Time of worker - - - 1,91,265 2,75,695 - - - - - 96,085 - 5,63,045
Hiring 6 1 7 12 21 2 10 7 18 84
Firing 15 20 8 43
-
Cost of Worker per month 29,76,000 33,60,000 38,44,000 45,60,000 28,52,000 3,60,000 18,60,000 44,64,000 45,60,000 59,52,000 66,00,000 41,36,000 4,55,24,000
Cost of Hiring Worker per month 2,23,200 33,600 2,60,400 - - 4,32,000 7,81,200 74,400 3,60,000 2,60,400 - 4,75,200 29,00,400
Cost of Firing Worker per month - - - 10,80,000 14,88,000 - - - - - 5,76,000 - 31,44,000
Total Cost 5,15,68,400