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Dynamic reliability analysis of earth dam's slope stability

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 Sustainable and Safe Dams Around the World – Tournier, Bennett & Bibeau (Eds)
© 2019 Canadian Dam Association, ISBN 978-0-367-33422-2

Dynamic reliability analysis of earth dam’s slope stability

S. Mousavi
Department of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

A. Noorzad
ICOLD and Iranian Committee on Large Dams, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti
University, Tehran, Iran

ABSTRACT: Probabilistic seismic analysis provides a tool for considering uncertainty of

the soil parameters and earthquake characteristics. In this paper, by considering soil uncer-
tainties by using Monte Carlo simulation (MCs) along with Finite Element Method (FEM)
dynamic time-series slope stability analysis of an earth dam has been investigated. For reliabil-
ity assessment, the reliability index and probability of failure of slope stability safety factor in
time domain are determined. Soil parameters uncertainties are modeled with normal distribu-
tions with and without consideration the cross correlation between cohesion and internal fric-
tion angle. To assess the effects of seismic loading, the slope stability reliability analysis is
made with modified San-Fernando earthquake record. The results indicate that reliability
assessment as dynamic time-series analysis is an efficient tool for safe design of dams.

RÉSUMÉ: L’analyse sismique probabiliste est une méthode pour la prise en compte de l’in-
certitude des paramètres du sol et des caractéristiques du séisme. Dans cet article, l’analyse
dynamique série-chronologique de la stabilité de la pente des barrages en terre a été étudiée en
considérant l’incertitude du sol par la méthode de simulation Monte Carlo et la méthode d’élé-
ment fini. Afin d’évaluer la fiabilité, l’index de la fiabilité et le coefficient de la certitude de la
stabilité pour la probabilité de la destruction de la pente dans le domaine temporel ont été
déterminés. L’incertitude des paramètres du sol aux distributions normales avec/sans considér-
ation de la corrélation croisée entre la cohésion et l’angle de friction interne ont été modélisés.
De plus, la stabilité de la pente a été analysée par la méthode modifiée d’enregistrement des
ondes sismiques de San Fernando afin d’évaluer les effets de la charge sismique. Les résultats
montrent que l’évaluation de la fiabilité par l’analyse série-chronologique dynamique est une
méthode efficace pour le design sûr des barrages.

1 INTRODUCTION

The earth dam is considered safe only if the calculated factor of safety clearly exceeds unity.
However, due to the model and parameter uncertainties, even a factor of safety greater than
one does not confirm the safety against failure of earth dam. Therefore, it is important to cali-
brate the deterministic methods considering the effect of different sources of model and par-
ameter uncertainties.
The reliability analysis of earth dam and slope stability have attracted considerable atten-
tion in the research community in the past few decades (Husein Malkawi et al. 2000, El-
Ramly 2001, Griffiths and Fenton 2004, Düzgün and Özdemir 2006, Zhao et al. 2016, Huang
and Zhou 2017). Numerous researches have been investigated the relationship of failure prob-
ability and reliability index with safety factor variation (Lumb 1970, Griffiths et al. 2009,
2011, Huang et al. 2010, 2013). But, seismic reliability analysis of earth dam’s stability investi-
gated fewer (Peng et al. 2005, Huang et al. 2013, Johari et al. 2015, Huang and Xiong 2017,

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Xiong and Huang 2017, Mouyeaux et al. 2018). Ground motion acceleration can apply iner-
tial forces to soil body and makes earth dam unstable. It is obvious that soil and earthquake
characteristics affected by uncertainty that exist in reality and these uncertainties apply signifi-
cant effects on stability of earth dams. Therefore, it is essential to analyze infrastructures such
as earth dams under earthquake acceleration and in probabilistic state.
The available probabilistic methods for earth dams and slopes stability analysis lie into five
main categories: approximate methods, Monte Carlo simulation (MCs), numerical methods,
analytical methods and artificial intelligence method. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation is
established as a probabilistic method to consider soil uncertainties and using Finite Element
Method (FEM) as a numerical method to study the dynamic reliability analysis. For reliability
assessment, the reliability index and probability of failure of slope stability safety factor in
time domain are determined. Soil parameters uncertainties are modeled with normal distribu-
tions with and without consideration the cross correlation between cohesion and internal fric-
tion angle probabilistic distributions.

2 MODELING

For modeling, a model of an earth dam in GeoStudio software is prepared using SEEP/W,
SLOPE/W, SIGMA/W and QUAKE/W sub software. Using frequent sub software, different
stages of analysis were performed. The model is based on Givi earth dam case study in Iran
and presented in Figure 1. Parameters that used in different regions for modeling of the earth
dam are shown in Table 1.

3 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF EARTH DAM

In deterministic and ordinary analysis, for each parameter a constant value is considered, by
substituting constant input values in target function, a deterministic value as an output value
will be obtained (Johari and Mousavi 2018). That’s why in deterministic analysis for obtaining
stability safety factor of an earth dam, the values of effective parameters including cohesion,
internal friction angle, unit weight, elastic modulus, poisson ratio of soil are used as a

Figure 1. Model of case study

Table 1. Characteristics of earth dam regions



Region k ðm=secÞ c kN=m2 ’ ðDegreeÞ γ kN=m3

Core 1.0 E -7 40.0 5.0 19.4

Downstream filter 4.0 E -4 0.0 34.0 19.0
Shells 4.0 E -5 10.0 37.0 20.0
Rock fill 1.0 E -4 0.0 41.0 20.0
Base 2.2 E -5 10.0 36.0 19.7
Drainage filter 5.0 E -2 0.0 40.0 20.0
Ground soil 5.0 E -4 10.0 35.0 19.7
Upstream filter 3.5 E -4 0.0 30.0 19.0

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deterministic and constant values and then by substituting such values in safety factor func-
tion, stability safety factor of earth dam is finally determine.
However, in reliability analysis, instead of a deterministic and constant values, a probabilis-
tic distribution is considered for each parameter. Consider that for each parameter such as
cohesion, internal friction angle and etc, a probabilistic distribution with N generation
number is defined. The deterministic analysis is repeated N times by using stability safety
factor function and obtaining probabilistic outputs. In this research, Monte Carlo Simulation
method is used as a probabilistic method and created a framework to do reliability analysis.

3.1 Stochastic parameters

In order to take the uncertainties in slope stability into consideration (stability of earth dams),
three input parameters, including the internal friction angle (φ), cohesion (c), and unit weight
(γ), have been defined as stochastic variables. The statistical distributions of these uncertain-
ties have been studied by many researchers. Numerous researchers emphasized that the
normal, truncated normal, and log-normal distributions are more compatible with the behav-
ior of soil parameters (Lumb 1966, 1970, Tobutt 1982, Phoon and Kulhawy 1999, Brejda
et al. 2000). However, other distributions, such as triangular, Gumbel, Weibull, versatile beta,
and generalized gamma, are used for soil parameters (Christian and Baecher 2002). In this
paper, the truncated normal distributions are used for modeling of the stochastic soil param-
eters. The parameters related to the geometry and earthquake acceleration are regarded as
constant parameters. The Probability Distribution Functions (PDF) of truncated normal dis-
tributions for the stochastic parameters are as follows (Olive 2008):
  2 
xi μx
0:5 i
1 σxi
fxi ðxi Þ ¼ pffiffiffiffiffi e ximin 5xi 5ximax ð1Þ
σxi 2π

where: ximin : Minimum values of xi stochastic parameter and equal to ximean  4σxi
ximax : Maximum values of xi stochastic parameter and equal to ximean þ 4σxi
σxi : Standard deviation of xi stochastic parameter
μxi : Average of xi stochastic parameter
By considering the stochastic variables within the range of their mean plus or minus 4 times
standard deviation in Equation 1, 99.994% of the area beneath the normal density curve is
covered. Based on literature reviews, several standard deviation for stochastic parameters are
recommended as can be seen in Table 2.

3.2 Acceleration time series

According to the numerical steps for dynamic time series analysis, first the time series of an
earthquake ground motion is considered. Afterwards, the acceleration time series of San-Fer-
nando earthquake, shown in Figure 2, was modified and applied to base of earth dam model.

3.3 Dynamic reliability analysis of earth dam’s slope stability

In dynamic analysis, by applying suitable ground motion acceleration, the structure will be
analyzed for each time step. In this analysis, which is known as time series analysis, in each

Table 2. Standard deviation of stochastic parameters (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999)



Parameter γ kN=m3 ’ ðDegreeÞ c kN=m2

Standard deviation 0:05  γmean 0:10  ’mean 0:20  cmean

940
Figure 2. acceleration time series

time step, earthquake acceleration is applied to the structure and its effect is determined. By
applying earthquake acceleration in later time steps, the effects of acceleration on previous
time steps will also be involved. Accordingly, the case study structure will be analyzed once in
each time step and consequently, for each time step, displacements and stability safety factors
related to each step is determined. In evaluating dynamic reliability analysis of earth dam`s
stability, reliability analysis is performed once for each time step and a PDF, CDF and safety
factor are calculated. Therefore, for each time step, a probability of failure and a reliability
index are determined.
As mentioned earlier, Monte Carlo simulation method is used for applying the influence of
soil uncertainties. While this method is based on repetition, for evaluating reliability assess-
ment, the analysis must be repeated for certain times. That’s why, in each step, 5000 repeti-
tions are used and in each step, a probabilistic distribution for stability safety factor of earth
dam is determined and a PDF curve based on stability safety factor distribution was obtained.
Mentioned analysis was performed in two conditions: without cross correlation and with
cross correlation -0.5 between internal friction angle and cohesion distributions. PDFs of
earth dam downstream stability safety factor in different time steps of earthquake are illus-
trated in Figures 3 and 4 in 3D and 2D respectively.
As shown in Figures 3 and 4, in dynamic reliability analysis based on acceleration
time series, PDF curves of stability safety factor of downstream earth dam moves with
high uncertainty in direction of any axis. Therefore, obviously that performing
dynamic reliability analysis in earth dams can present a wide range of the earth dam
behavior, which are not observable in deterministic and pseudo-static reliability ana-
lysis. This can be explained as a result of uncertainty nature of soil characteristics and
earthquake loading.
These figures illustrate the considerable effects of cross correlation between internal friction
angle and cohesion of soil. By applying cross correlation -0.5 between probabilistic

Figure 3. PDF curves of earth dam downstream stability safety factor for time steps in 3D

941
Figure 4. PDF curves of earth dam downstream stability safety factor for time steps in 2D

Figure 5. CDF curves of earth dam downstream stability safety factor for time steps in 3D

distributions of internal friction angle and cohesion of soil, probabilistic distribution of down-
stream earth dam stability safety factor is changed in each time step.
For understanding of stability probabilistic behavior of earth dam, CDF curves based on
time steps needed to be determined. By integrating the area under PDF curves, corresponding
CDF curves are determined as it is shown in Figure 5. In this figure, CDF curves of down-
stream earth dam stability safety factor are shown for different time steps. Two dimensional
curves are shown in Figure 6.
Probability of failure is defined the probability of the occurrence of safety factor which
is below 1.0. Therefore, when the CDF curves move toward higher values of safety factor,
the probability of failure of downstream earth dam decreases. Based on Figure 6, the
most and least amount of probability of failure are related to at time steps 4.52 and 3.2
seconds, respectively. However, in Figure 4, PDF curves which were related to time steps
2.0 and 3.2 seconds predicted the most and least amount of safety factor, respectively.
While in determining CDF curves, the variation of outputs is highly important so the
movement of CDF curves is slightly different from PDF curves. By looking thoroughly
into PDF and CDF curves to PDF and CDF curves in three dimensions the behavior of
probabilistic stability safety factor is more clear.

942
Figure 6. CDF curves of earth dam downstream stability safety factor for time steps in 2D

Figure 7. Variation of mean of safety factor distributions in times steps

In each time step, probabilistic distribution of safety factor was determined and cor-
responding mean and standard deviation values of distributions were calculated, Correl-
ation Of Varioation (COV) of each time step has been determined as they are shown in
Figures 7 and 8.
According to Figure 7, the mean values of safety factor distributions, in different time steps
for both conditions of cross correlation are coincide and does not change significantly.
Amounts of applied earthquake acceleration on earth dam in different time steps, shows
(emphasize) the fact that the determined mean values of safety factor for time steps are so
diverse; In addition, the determined mean values of safety factor can be less or even more than
its primary amounts.
Figure 8 illustrates the COV of safety factor distributions of earth dam change at different
time steps, based on changeable earthquake acceleration. Implementation of cross correlation
between probabilistic distributions of soil, leads to a reduction of more than -40% in the
standard deviations of their distribution at downstream earth dam safety factor. As it shows,

943
Figure 8. Variation of COV in times steps

Figure 9. Variation of reliability index in times steps

maximum and minimum safety factors and standard deviations are calculated at 3.20 and 4.52
secondes, respectively.
The reliability indices of the time series analysis are determined using Equation 2 (Husein
Malkawi et al., 2000) using the probability density function of safety factor. Determined reli-
ability indices for time steps are shown in Figure 9.

E ðFSÞ  1
β¼ ð2Þ
σðFSÞ

where β is the reliability index, E ðFSÞ and σðFSÞ are mean and standard deviation of safety
factor distribution, respectively. The probability of failure of downstream earth dam for dif-
ferent time steps are shown in Figure 10.
In Figure 9, reliability indices for different time steps are presented for both with and with-
out cross correlation. The determined values of reliability index increased by applying cross
correlation -0.5 and also according to Figure 8, it is shown that by applying cross correlation,

944
Figure 10. Variation of probability of failure in times steps

Figure 11. Variation of reliability index based on mean of safety factor

the values of standard deviations are decreased and based on Equation 1, reliability index
should be increased.
By comparing presented amounts in Figures 9 and 10, we can find out the relationship
between reliability indices and probability of failures in different time steps. As it is shown in
Figure 10, the amounts of failure probability decreased significantly by applying cross correl-
ation -0.5. The probability of failure in different time steps is mostly close to zero but in steps
where the amount of acceleration is more than current steps, an increase shows to be around
5% in probability of failure that also shown in Figures 11 and 12.
In Figure 11, by the increase of mean safety factor, the amount of reliability index increases
relatively in a linear form. As it gets to the safety factor equal to 1.6, slope of reliability index
variation has been decreased. Figure 11 shows the fact that based on cross correlation, the
determined reliability indices are more than other amounts, which was expected. Figure 12
shows that by approaching to safety factor values less than 1.2, probability of failure increases
with a high slope. The relationship between failure probability and mean of safety factor can
be expressed using Homographic function.

945
Figure 12. Variation of probability of failure based on mean of safety factor

Figure 13. Variation of failure probability based on mean of safety factor

Figure 11 illustrates the difference in the slope increment of reliability index between safety
factor values less and more than 1.6. This can be described using Figure 13 in which is the
standard deviation values for safety factor which is more than 1.6 increases with a higher
slope. According to Equation 2, by increasing the standard deviation values, the reliability
index values will be decreased.
As mentioned earlier, in this paper the effects of seismic loading on earth dam stability have
been investigated. The nonlinear regression has been performed on the given data and results of
each analysis. Earthquake acceleration, mean of safety factor and failure probability of down-
stream of earth dam are illustrated in Figure 14. The displayed graph represents the permitted
space for the sustainability behavior of the earth dam case study. By increasing the acceleration
caused by the earthquake, the value of the stability safety factor decreases and simultaneously
increases the failure probability of downstream of earth dam. On the other hand, by decreasing
the earthquake acceleration, the amount of reliability index is increased and the slope of the
failure probability changes also decreases. Observing thoroughly, in this figure, it can be seen
that the determined failure probability values for the earthquake negative accelerations are
greater than the corresponding values for positive accelerations. This is in line with the forces
caused by the earthquake acceleration and the probable unstable direction of the slope of earth
dam’s downstream.

946
Figure 14. Permitted surface of mean of safety factor, ground acceleration and probability of failure

Table 3. Target reliability indices (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1999).

Expected performance level Reliability index (β) Probability of failure (Pf)

High 5.0 0.30 E -6.0

Good 4.0 0.30 E -4.0
Above average 3.0 0.10 E -2.0
Below average 2.5 0.60 E -2.0
Poor 2.0 0.23 E -1.0
Unsatisfactory 1.5 0.07
Hazardous 1.0 0.16

4 EVALUATION

Reliability index, mean of safety factor and failure probability have been determined for all
time steps. In this study, target reliability index approach is investigated to evaluating the reli-
ability analysis of earth dam stability. The target reliability indices and performance levels are
shown in Table 3 (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1999). Results in all time steps have been
checked to these target reliability indices and specified that studied earth dam lie in high to
unsatisfactory performance levels. The performance level in Peak Ground Acceleration
(PGA) shows to be unsatisfactory, but in other time steps it can be in high to above average
performance level.

5 CONCLUSION

In this study, the MCs method was used to consider the soil uncertainties in dynamic reliabil-
ity analysis of earth dams under earthquake loading. The selected soil stochastic parameters
were internal friction angle, cohesion and unit weight, which were modeled using truncated
normal probability distributions. The parameters related to geometry and earthquake ground
motion were regarded as constant parameters.
For reliability assessment, the reliability index and failure probability of each time step were
calculated. Reliability assessment has been done for two values of cross correlation between
internal friction angle and cohesion on soil statistical distributions (cross correlations equal to
0.0 and -0.5). However, the reliability indices of the earth dam stability are grater for the cases
where correlation coefficient is considered compared with those without considering cross
correlation.

947
 Dynamic reliability analysis of earth dam stability is a suitable tool for better understanding
of the behavior of earth dams against earthquake loads. In static and pseudo-static reliability
analysis, the analysis is performed in an equivalent time step. This is however, in the dynamic
reliability analysis, probabilistic analysis are performed at all stages of the earthquake. By per-
forming this analyze, probabilistic parameters such as reliability index and probability of fail-
ure can be determined at each time step and corresponding to the acceleration of the
operation to the earth dam. Therefore, for infrastructure structures, these analysis are sug-
gested to be used. Based on the performed analysis and fitting, a surface has been set which
indicates the region of the studied soil dam behavior. The accuracy of this procedure deter-
mines how the direction of the earthquake’s acceleration is going to affect the dam’s failure
probability, apart from its magnitude.

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