Instructorʼs Guide for Activities 49

Chapter 9
Probability

Activity 1
Box 1
2. Answers will vary. Although the probability that Spinner B will win is 5/9, the difference between
the number of times Spinner B and Spinner A win in 30 trials is likely to be small. Some students will
interpret this as meaning the game is fair (since they win about as often as they lose) while others will
interpret any difference as meaning the game is unfair.
Box 2
2. Answers will vary. The class totals probably will show that Spinner B wins more often and therefore
the game is not fair.
Box 3: EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
1. Answers will vary.
2. Since there is no 1 on the spinner, you can never get an outcome of 1.
0
Thus, P(1) = = 0.
total number of trials
3. Since all of the numbers on the spinner are less than 10, the outcome of every spin is less
total number of trials
than 10. Thus, P(a number less than 10) = = 1.
! total number of trials
4. a. The event can never occur.
b. The event must occur.
!
5. To have a probability greater than 1, an event would have to occur more often than the experiment
was conducted, and to have a probability less than 0, it would have to occur a negative number of
times, neither of which is possible.
Box 4: COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
1. P(even number) + P(odd number) = 1
2. If A and B are complementary events, then P(A) + P(B) = 1.
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50 Chapter 9 • Probability

Activity 1 Continued
Box 5: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Since experimental probabilities are used to find the answers in Exercises 1 and 3, the answers will vary.
The responses shown are approximations based on theoretical probabilities.
1. a. P(2 or 4) = 2/3
b. P(2 and 4) = 0
c. P(2) + P(4) = (1/3) + (1/3) = 2/3
d. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
2. If A and B are complementary events, then A ∩ B = φ and A ∪ B = {all possible outcomes}.
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then A ∩ B = φ but A ∪ B may not be equal to
{all possible outcomes}.
3. a. P(an odd number or a square number) = 2/3
b. P(an odd number) + P(a square number) = (1/3) + (2/3) = 1
c. P(the number is odd and square) = 1/3
d. No, 9 is odd and square.
e. Subtract P(the number is odd and square) from P(an odd number) + P(a square number).
f. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
EXTENSION
Answers will vary. See the EXTENSION in Activity 2 for an analysis of the game.

Activity 2
Box 1
1. P(2) = 1/3 P(4) = 1/3 P(9) = 1/3
P(square number) = 2/3 P(odd number) = 1/3 P(even number) = 2/3
2. Answers will vary.
Box 2
1. Answers will vary. One possibility is .
2. Answers will vary.
3. Answers will vary, but the probabilities probably did not come out exactly 1/4 and 3/4.
Probabilities tell what will happen over a large number of trials, so it is likely that more trials are
needed before the theoretical probability of RED approaches 1/4.
4. Answers will vary, however, since there are more trials, the probabilities calculated using the totals
for 5 people may be closer to the theoretical probabilities of 1/4 and 3/4.

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 Instructorʼs Guide for Activities 51

Activity 2 Continued
Box 3: THE SPINNER GAME REVISITED
1. Answers will vary.
2. Answers will vary.
3. 3.a.a.
Spinner B
A = A wins
B = B wins
3 5 7

2 B B B
Spinner A

4 A B B

9 A A A

b. Since the outcomes for Spinner B are equally likely, for each outcome of a spin of Spinner A the
chance of getting any of the three possible outcomes on Spinner B is the same. But, the outcomes
for Spinner A are also equally likely, so over a large number of trials, we would expect each
outcome on Spinner A to occur about the same number of times. Thus, each of the 9 possible
combinations of a spin of Spinner A and a spin of Spinner B represented by cells in the matrix are
equally likely.
4. P(spinner A wins) = 4/9
P(spinner B wins) = 5/9
5. a. - b. The answers will vary. Because of the larger number of trials, the probabilities based on the
class totals should be close to the theoretical probabilities.
6. The game is not fair since P(spinner A wins) < P(spinner B wins).
EXTENSION

Spinner B Spinner C Spinner C

A = A wins A = A wins B = B wins
B = B wins C = C wins C = C wins
3 5 7 1 6 8 1 6 8

2 B B B 2 A C C 3 B C C
Spinner A

Spinner B
Spinner A

4 A B B 4 A C C 5 B C C
9 A A A 9 A A A 7 B B C

B is more likely A is more likely C is more likely

to win than A. to win than C. to win than B.
Letting the first player choose a spinner does not make this a fair game. In fact, it gives the second player
an advantage. The second player’s strategy is:
If the first player chooses Spinner A, choose Spinner B.
If the first player chooses Spinner B, choose Spinner C.
If the first player chooses Spinner C, choose Spinner A.
In any of the three cases, the probability that the second player wins is 5/9, so it is not a fair game.

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52 Chapter 9 • Probability

Activity 3
1. a. 5/8 b. 2/8 or 1/4 c. 1/8 d. 0 e. 3/8 f. 7/8
2. a.
2. a. 0 1/8 1/4 3/8 5/8 7/8
d c b e a f
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
b. a – likely b - some chance c - nearly impossible (or some chance)
d - no chance e - some chance f - nearly certain
3. 4 blue squares; For the probability of drawing a blue square to equal 0.5, half the squares in the bag
must be blue. Since there are 2 blue squares and 6 non-blue squares, you would have to add 4 blue
squares to the bag.
4. Results will vary.
5. Answers will vary.
6. Answers will vary, but the probabilities should be close to those in Exercise 1.
7. a. - c. Answers will vary.
d. To find the number of each color square in the bag, multiply the experimental probability of
drawing that color by 9 (the number of squares in the bag) and round the product to the nearest
whole number.

Activity 4
Box 1: PROBABILITIES USING A MATRIX
Results of the experiment and answers to questions will vary.
Box 2: MORE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITIES
1. Answers will vary.
2. Ideally the answers to Exercise 1 Parts (c) and (d) will be about equal. However, since experimental
probabilities are being used, this may not be the case.
3. Ideally the two results will be about equal.
Box 3: THEORETICAL PROBABILITIES USING A MATRIX
1. 2. P(A wins) = 3/9 = 1/3
Player B
A = A wins P(B wins) = 3/9 = 1/3
B = B wins
Scissors

P(Tie) = 3/9 = 1/3

Paper

C = C wins
Rock

3. The game is fair since the probabilities of winning and

of losing are the equal.
Paper T B A 4. a. 3/9 = 1/3
Player A

Scissors A T B b. 3/9 = 1/3

c. 1/9
Rock B A T
d. 1/9
5. They are equal.
6. Answers will vary, but ideally the experimental and theoretical results will be close.

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 Instructorʼs Guide for Activities 53

Activity 4 Continued
Box 4: PROBABILITIES USING A TREE DIAGRAM
1. Player Player
A B Outcome
P PP
1/3
1/3
P S PS

1/3
1/3 R PR
P SP
1/3
1/3 1/3
S S SS

1/3 R SR

1/3 P RP
1/3
1/3
R S RS

1/3
R RR
2. The outcome PP means that both players showed paper.
3. P(PS) = (1/3)(1/3)
= 1/9
4. P(SP or SR) = P(SP) + P(SR)
= 1/9 + 1/9
= 2/9
5. P(A wins) = P(SP or PR or RS)
= 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9
= 1/3
6. P(B wins) = P(SR or PS or RP)
= 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9
= 1/3
7. P(at least one player shows scissors) = P(SS or SP or SR or PS or RS)
= 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 = 5/9

Activity 5
Box 1
1. Yes; Since the probability that any one of the children is a boy is the same as the probability it is a
girl, the outcomes are equally likely.
2. 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 8 outcomes
3. P(0 girls) = 1/8
P(1 girl) = 3/8
P(2 girls) = 3/8
P(3 girls) = 1/8

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54 Chapter 9 • Probability

Activity 5 Continued
Box 2
1. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Number
Outcome
Child Child Child Child of Girls
G G GGGG 4
G B GGGB 3
B G GGBG 3
B GGBB 2
G
G G GBGG 3
B B GBGB 2 0 girls - 1
G GBBG 2 1 girl - 4
B
B GBBB 1 2 girls - 6
G BGGG 3 3 girls - 4
G
G B BGGB 2 4 girls - 1
B G BGBG 2
B B BGBB 1
G G BBGG 2
B B BBGB 1
Key: G = girl G BBBG 1
B = boy B
B BBBB 0

2. a. 1
b. The numbers at the ends of each row are 1. The other numbers in a row equal the sum of
the two numbers above them in the preceding row.
c. 1 6 15 20 15 6 1
3. P(0 girls) = 1/32 P(1 girl) = 5/32 P(2 girls) = 10/32
P(3 girls) = 10/32 P(4 girls) = 5/32 P(5 girls) = 1/32
4. a. 20/64 or 5/16 b. 42/64 or 21/32 c. 6/64 or 3/32 d. 42/64 or 21/32
5. P(0 girls) = 1/512 P(1 girl) = 9/512 P(2 girls) = 36/512 P(3 girls) = 84/512
P(4 girls) = 126/512 P(5 girls) = 126/512 P(6 girls) = 84/512 P(7 girls) = 36/512
P(8 girls) = 9/512 P(9 girls) = 1/512

Activity 6
Box 1: DESIGNING A SIMULATION
Answers will vary. The probability that Robin will win will probably be close to 5/9.
Box 2
1. Roll the die once. An outcome of 1, 2, 3, or 4 represents the number of the card that was in the box.
An outcome of 5 or 6 would be ignored, and the die would be rolled again.
2. A trial consists of rolling a die until each of the numbers 1 through 4 has been obtained.
3. Results will vary. 4. Answers will vary.
5. Let the numbers 1, 2, and 3 represent the cards 1 through 3 respectively and the outcomes 4 and 5
represent card 4. Ignore outcomes of 6.
6. A trial would consist of rolling a die until a 1, 2, and 3 and either a 4 or 5 have been obtained.

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 Instructorʼs Guide for Activities 55

Activity 6 Continued
EXTENSION
Answers will vary. The following response is based on the assumption that the probability Robin wins a
contest is 5/9.
Contest 1 Contest 2 Contest 3 Winner Probability
5/9 R R
R 5/9 R R
5/9 4/9 M
4/9 M M 80/729
5/9 R R
4/9 5/9 R
M 4/9 M M 80/729
4/9 M M 16/81
P(Marian wins) = 80/729 + 80/729 + 16/81 = 304/729

Activity 7
Box 1
1. a. Number of Squares 1 2 3 4
Number of
1 2 6 24
Arrangements
rbg brg grb rgb bgr gbr
b. Answers will vary. One possibility is to make an organized list by first finding all the possible
arrangements that have a red square first, then all of them that have a blue square first, and
finally, all the arrangements that have a green square first.
c. The number of arrangements of three squares is 3 times the number of arrangements of two
squares.
2. a. Answers will vary. For each color square, since there are 6 ways to arrange the other three
squares, there are 6 arrangements that have that color in the first position. Since there are
4 different colors, there are 4 × 6 = 24 ways to arrange the squares.
b. yrbg yrgb ybrg ybgr ygrb ygbr rybg rygb rbyg rbgy rgyb rgby
byrg bygr bryg brgy bgyr bgry gyrb gybr gryb grby gbyr gbry
c. The number of arrangements of four squares is 6 times the number of arrangements of three
squares.
3. Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are n choices for the first square, n – 1 choices for
the second square, n – 2 for the third square, and so on until there is just 1 square remaining for the
last square, so there are n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2)(n – 3) … (3)(2)(1) arrangements altogether.

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56 Chapter 9 • Probability

Activity 7 Continued
Box 2: ARRANGEMENTS WITH LIKE SQUARES
1. a. 3 ways rrg rgr grr
b. 6
c. 1/2
The denominator of the fraction equals the number of red squares. (Actually, it is 2!, the number
of red squares factorial. 2! = 2 · 1)
d. Sample response: If the red squares could be told apart, then switching the order of the red
squares in each arrangement in Part a would create a new arrangement. This would double the
number of arrangements, so the number of arrangements of two red squares and one green square
should equal half the number of arrangements of three distinct squares.
2. a. 4 ways rrrg rrgr rgrr grrr
24
1/6
The denominator of the fraction equals 3! = 3 × 2 × 1.
b. 5 ways
There are 5! ways to arrange five different color squares. But because the red squares can’t be
told apart, this counts each arrangement of them 4! times. Thus, the number of distinct
1 1
arrangements of the 5 squares should be or of the number of arrangements of 5 different
4! 24
1 5!
color squares. And, " 5!= = 5.
4! 4!
c. 5 arrangements: rrrrg rrrgr
! ! rrgrr rgrrr grrrr
3. a. 12 arrangements: rrbg rrgb rbrg rgrb rbgr rgbr
! brrg brgr bgrr grrb grbr gbrr
b. 6 arrangements: rrgg rgrg rggr ggrr grgr grrg
c. 10 arrangements: rrrgg rrgrg rrggr rgrrg rgrgr
rggrr grrrg grrgr grgrr ggrrr
1 1 1 1 1 1
4. a. (3a) = (3b) = (3c) =
2 2!" 1!" 1! 4 2!" 2! 12 3!" 2!
b. The denominator of each fraction is the product of the factorials of the number of each color
square.
5. !If there are n squares, divide n!,
! the total number of arrangements
! of n different squares, by the
factorial of the number of each color square.

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 Instructorʼs Guide for Activities 57

Activity 7 Continued
1. a.
R B G Y

B G Y R G Y R B Y R B G
RB RG RY BR BG BY GR GB GY YR YB YG
b. There are 4 ways to choose the first square and 3 ways to choose the second one, so there are
4 × 3 = 12 permutations.
c. 4 × 3 × 2 = 24 permutations
d. G RBG
B
Y RBY
B RGB
R G
Y RGY
B RYB
Y
G RYG
G BRG
R
Y BRY
R BGR
B G
Y BGY
R BYR
Y
G BYG
B GRB
R
Y GRY
R GBR
G B
Y GBY
R GYR
Y
B GYB
B YRB
R
G YRG
R YBR
Y B
G YBG
R YGR
G
B YGB

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 58 Chapter 9 • Probability

Activity 7 Continued
2. a. You still end up with the same pair of squares regardless of whether the red square is chosen first
and then the blue square (RB) or whether the blue square is chosen first and then the red square
(RB).
b. Changing the order does not change the pair.
3. a. 6 combinations
b. 1/2
c. The denominator equals the number of squares in a pair. (Actually, it is the factorial of the
number of squares in a pair.)
4. a. See the tree diagram above.
b. 4 combinations
c. 1/6
d. The denominator is the factorial of the number of squares in a group. The numerator is 1.
5. Divide the number of permutations that can be formed by choosing m of the n items by m!.
n(n "1)(n " 2)!(n " m + 2)(n " m +1)
n!

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