Stats Data And Models Canadian 3rd

Edition De Veaux Solutions Manual

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 Chapter 11: From Randomness to Probability

Section 11.1

1. Flipping a coin.
In the long run, a fair coin will generate 50% heads and 50% tails, approximately.
But for each flip we cannot predict the outcome.

2. Dice.
In the long run, a fair die will produce roughly equal amounts of the numbers 1
through 6 when rolled. But each roll is unpredictable.

3. Flipping a coin II.

There is no law of averages for the short run. The first five flips do not affect the
sixth flip.

4. Dice II.
The dice have no memory and in the short run there is no guarantee about what
will happen next.

Section 11.2

5. Wardrobe.
a) There are a total of 10 shirts, and 3 of them are red. The probability of randomly
selecting a red shirt is 3/10 = 0.30.
b) There are a total of 10 shirts, and 8 of them are not black. The probability of
randomly selecting a shirt that is not black is 8/10 = 0.80.

6. Playlists.
a) There are a total of 20 songs, and 7 of them are rap songs. The probability of
randomly selecting a rap song is 7/20 = 0.35.
b) There are a total of 20 songs, and 17 of them are not country songs. The
probability of randomly selecting non-country song is 17/20 = 0.85.

Section 11.3

7. Wardrobe II.
P(blue) = 5/10
P(black) = 2/10
Since a shirt can either be blue colour or black colour, and cannot be both,
the Addition Rule can be applied. Therefore,
P(blue or black) = 5/10 + 2/10 = 7/10

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 Chapter 11: From Randomness to Probability 297

8. Playlist II.
P(rap) = 7/20
P(country) = 3/20
Since a song can either be a rap song or or a country song, and cannot be both,
the Addition Rule can be applied. Therefore,
P(rap or country) = 7/20 + 3/20 = 10/20

Section 11.4

9. Pet ownership.
Given P(dog) = 0.25, P(cat) = 0.29, P(dog and cat) = 0.12
P(dog or cat) = P(dog) + P(cat) - P(dog and cat) = 0.25 + 0.29 – 0.12 = 0.42

10. Cooking and shopping.

Given P(cooking) = 0.45, P(shopping) = 0.59, P(cooking and shopping) = 0.23
P(cooking or shopping) = P(cooking) + P(shopping) – P(cooking and shopping) =
0.45 + 0.59 – 0.23 = 0.81

Chapter Exercises

11. Sample spaces.

a) S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} All of the outcomes are equally likely to occur.
b) S = {0, 1, 2, 3} All outcomes are not equally likely. A family of three is more
likely to have, for example, two boys than three boys. There are three equally
likely outcomes that result in two boys (BBG, BGB, and GBB), and only one that
results in three boys (BBB).
c) S = {H, TH, TTH, TTT} All outcomes are not equally likely. For example the
1
probability of getting heads on the first try is . The probability of getting three
2
3
1 1
tails is    .
2 8
d) S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} All outcomes are not equally likely. Since you are recording
only the larger number of two dice, 6 will be the larger when the other die reads
1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. The outcome 2 will only occur when the other die shows 1 or 2.

12. Sample spaces II.

a) S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12} All outcomes are not equally likely. For
example, there are four equally likely outcomes that result in a sum of 5 (1 + 4,
4 + 1, 2 + 3, and 3 + 2), and only one outcome that results in a sum of 2 (1 + 1).
b) S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG} All outcomes are equally
likely.

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298 Part IV: Randomness and Probability

c) S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4} All outcomes are not equally likely. For example, there are four
equally likely outcomes that produce one tail (HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, and
THHH), but only one outcome that produces four tails (TTTT).
d) S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} All outcomes are not equally likely. A string of
three heads is much more likely to occur than a string of 10 heads in a row.

13. Roulette. If a roulette wheel is to be considered truly random, then each outcome is
equally likely to occur, and knowing one outcome will not affect the probability of
the next. Additionally, there is an implication that the outcome is not determined
through the use of an electronic random number generator.

14. Rain. When a weather forecaster makes a prediction such as a 25% chance of rain,
this means that when weather conditions are like they are now, rain happens 25%
of the time in the long run.

15. Winter. Although acknowledging that there is no law of averages, Knox attempts to
use the law of averages to predict the severity of the winter. Some winters are harsh
and some are mild over the long run, and knowledge of this can help us to develop
a long-term probability of having a harsh winter. However, probability does not
compensate for odd occurrences in the short term. Suppose that the probability of
having a harsh winter is 30%. Even if there are several mild winters in a row, the
probability of having a harsh winter is still 30%.

16. Snow. The radio announcer is referring to the “law of averages,” which is not true.
Probability does not compensate for deviations from the expected outcome in the
recent past. The weather is not more likely to be bad later on in the winter because
of a few sunny days in autumn. The weather makes no conscious effort to even
things out, which is what the announcer’s statement implies.

17. Cold streak. There is no such thing as being “due for a hit.” This statement is based
on the so-called law of averages, which is a mistaken belief that probability will
compensate in the short term for odd occurrences in the past. The batter’s chance
for a hit does not change based on recent successes or failures.

18. Crash.
a) There is no such thing as the “law of averages.” The overall probability of an
airplane crash does not change due to recent crashes.
b) Again, there is no such thing as the “law of averages.” The overall probability
of an airplane crash does not change due to a period in which there were no
crashes. It makes no sense to say a crash is “due.” If you say this, you are
expecting probability to compensate for strange events in the past.

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 Chapter 11: From Randomness to Probability 299

19. Fire insurance.

a) It would be foolish to insure your neighbour’s house for $300. Although you
would probably simply collect $300, there is a chance you could end up paying
much more than $300. That risk probably is not worth the $300.
b) The insurance company insures many people. The overwhelming majority of
customers pay the insurance and never have a claim. The few customers who
do have a claim are offset by the many who simply pay their premiums
without a claim. The relative risk to the insurance company is low.

20. Jackpot.
a) The Excalibur can afford to give away millions of dollars on a $3 bet because
almost all of the people who bet do not win the jackpot.
b) The press release generates publicity, which entices more people to come and
gamble. Of course, the casino wants people to play, because the overall odds
are always in favour of the casino. The more people who gamble, the more the
casino makes in the long run. Even if that particular slot machine has paid out
more than it ever took in, the publicity it gives to the casino more than makes
up for it.

21. Spinner.
a) This is a legitimate probability assignment. Each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, and the sum of the probabilities is 1.
b) This is a legitimate probability assignment. Each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, and the sum of the probabilities is 1.
c) This is not a legitimate probability assignment. Although each outcome has
probability between 0 and 1, inclusive, the sum of the probabilities is greater
than 1.
d) This is a legitimate probability assignment. Each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, and the sum of the probabilities is 1. However, this
game is not very exciting!
e) This probability assignment is not legitimate. Although the sum of the
probabilities is 1, there is one probability, –0.50, that is not between 0 and 1,
inclusive.

22. Scratch off.

a) This is not a legitimate assignment. Although each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, the sum of the probabilities is less than 1.
b) This is not a legitimate probability assignment. Although each outcome has
probability between 0 and 1, inclusive, the sum of the probabilities is greater
than 1.
c) This is a legitimate probability assignment. Each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, and the sum of the probabilities is 1.

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300 Part IV: Randomness and Probability

d) This probability assignment is not legitimate. Although the sum of the

probabilities is 1, there is one probability, –0.25, that is not between 0 and 1,
inclusive.
e) This is a legitimate probability assignment. Each outcome has probability
between 0 and 1, inclusive, and the sum of the probabilities is 1. This is also
known as a 10% off sale!

23. Car repairs. Since all of the events listed are disjoint, the addition rule can be used.
a) P(no repairs) = 1 – P(some repairs) = 1 – (0.17 + 0.07 + 0.04) = 1 – ( 0.28) = 0.72
b) P(no more than one repair) = P(no repairs or one repair) = 0.72 + 0.17 = 0.89
c) P(some repairs) = P(one or two or three or more repairs) = 0.17 + 0.07 + 0.04 = 0.28

24. Stats projects. Since all of the events listed are disjoint, the addition rule can be used.
a) P(two or more semesters of Calculus) = 1 – (0.55 + 0.32) = 0.13
b) P(some Calculus) = P(one semester or two or more semesters) = 0.32 + 0.13 = 0.45
c) P(no more than one semester) = P(no Calculus or one semester) = 0.55 + 0.32 = 0.87

25. Ethanol.
a) 160/500 = 0.32
b) (155 + 49)/500 = 0.408

26. Optimism.
a) 255/1000 = 0.255
b) (255 + 263)/1000 = 0.518

27. Census. Denote the two events as T (on time) and L (online) respectively. We know
that P(T) = 0.66, P(L) = 0.19, P(T and L) = 0.16.
a) P(T or L) = P(T) + P(L) – P( T and L) = 0.66 +0.19 – 0.16 = 0.69 (69%)
b) P(L) – P(L and T) = 0.19 – 0.16 = 0.03 (3%)
c) P(T) – P(L and T) = 0.66 – 0.16 = 0.50 (50%)
d) P(T c and Lc )  P(T or L )c  1  P(T or L )  1  0.69  0.31 (31%)

28. Census returns. Let S = randomly selected person receives a short census,
L = randomly selected person receives a long census, and O = randomly selected
person completes online. We know that P(S) = 0.8, P(L) = 0.2, P(S and O )  0.15 ,
P(L and O )  0.04 (4%).
a) P(O )  P(S and O )  P(L and O )  0.15  0.04  0.19 (19%)
b) P(S and O )  0.15 (15%)
c) P(S or O) = P(S) + P(O) – P(S and O) = 0.8 + 0.19 – 0.15 = 0.84 (84%)
d) P(S c and Oc )  P(S or O )c  1  P(S or O )  1  0.84  0.16 (16%)

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 Chapter 11: From Randomness to Probability 301

29. Homes. Using obvious notations, we know that P(G) = 0.64, P(S) = 0.21, P(G and S)
= 0.17.
a) P(S or G) = P(S) + P(G) – P( S and G) = 0.21 + 0.64 – 0.17 = 0.68
b) P(Sc and G c )  P(S or G )c  1  P(S or G )  1  0.68  0.32
c) P(S and G c )  P(S )  P(S and G )  0.21  0.17  0.04

30. Immigration. Let F = randomly selected immigrant is female, Y = randomly

selected emigrant is under 18 years old. We know that P(F) = 0.523, P(Y) = 0.186,
P(F and Y) = 0.09.
a) P(F and Y c )  P(F )  P(F and Y )  0.523  0.09  0.433
b) P(F or Y) = P(F) + P(Y) – P(F and Y) = 0.523 +0.186 – 0.09 = 0.619
c) P(F c and Y c )  P(F or Y )c  1  P(F or Y )  1  0.619  0.381

31. Emigration. Let M = randomly selected emigrant is male, O = randomly selected

immigrant is at least 18 years old. We know that P(M) = 0.51, P(O) = 0.82,
P(M and O) = 0.42.
a) P( M and Oc )  P( M )  P( M and O )  0.51  0.42  0.09
b) P(M or O) = P(M) + P(O) – P(M and O) = 0.51 +0.82 - 0.42 =0.91
c) P( M c and Oc )  P( M or O )c  1  P( M or O )  1  0.91  0.09

32. Workers. Let M = randomly selected worker is married, G = randomly selected

worker is a university graduate. We know that P(M) = 0.72, P(G) = 0.44,
P(M and G) = 0.5 × P(G) = 0.22.
a) P( M c and G c )  P( M or G )c  1  P( M or G )  1  0.94  0.06 (from part c)
b) P(M and Gc) = P(M) – P(M and G) = 0.72 – 0.22 = 0.5
c) P(M or G) = P(M) + P(G) – P(M and G) =0.72 + 0.44 – 0.22 = 0.94

33. Cosmetic marketing.

a) 3149/7690 = 0.4095
b) 1539/7690 = 0.2001
c) 695 / 7690 = 0.0904
d) 0.4095 + 0.2001 – 0.0904 = 0.5192

34. Birth order.

a) 43/223 = 0.1928
b) 113/223 = 0.5067
c) 15/223 = 0.0673
d) 0.1928 + 0.5067 – 0.0673 = 0.6322

35. Gambling. There are 36 possible equally likely outcomes of which only {(1,1), (1, 2),
(2,1), (6,6)} give a sum of 2, 3, or 12, so the required probability is 4/36 = 1/9.

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302 Part IV: Randomness and Probability

36. Red cards.

a) Your thinking is correct. There are 42 cards left in the deck, 26 black and only 16
red.
b) This is not an example of the Law of Large Numbers. There is no “long run.”
You’ll see the entire deck after 52 cards, and you know there will be 26 of each
colour then.

37. Poker. If the cards are selected at random (simple random sampling) from the deck
of 52 cards, all sets of five cards have the same chance to be the selected set.

38. Lottery. Lilith’s reasoning is incorrect. Since the numbers are selected at random,
her chance of winning with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 is just as likely as
winning with the numbers 4, 9, 14, 22, 36, and 41.

39. Simulations. Answers may vary. Author simulations estimate the probability to be
about 90%.

40. Simulations again. Answers may vary. Author simulations estimate the probability
to be about 47%. We are assuming that games are independent, and that teams do
not play differently based on the outcome of the previous game(s).

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