László Bernát Veszprémy

Israel has Learned not to Trust Russia the Hard Way

Russian-Israeli relations have not been entirely smooth in the past. Not only were the two
countries on opposing sides in the Cold War, but the Soviet Union actively spread anti-Israel
propaganda, blocked the aliyah of Russian Jews, and provided resources and weapons to
Palestinian extremists. (Interesting fact: in July 1970, the Cold War between the two sides
became a ’hot’ war: Israeli Dassault Mirage III fighter jets confronted Soviet MiG-21 fighters
over the Sinai Peninsula, and the Israelis shot down five Soviet planes, killing four pilots.)
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, relations between Israel and Russia
improved significantly.

Yet, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Israeli-Russian relations deteriorated
during the tenure of Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who actively criticised Russia in a
series of messages. Unlike many Western countries, Israel has maintained relations with the
Kremlin, rejecting sanctions against Russia. There are several reasons for this. For one,
Russian is the third most widely spoken language in Israel after Hebrew and Arabic, spoken
by 1.5 million Israelis, 17% of the population.

Russia has been grateful to Israel for not sending military aid to Ukraine, and the two
countries have maintained contact over military operations in Syria. That is more important
to Benjamin Netanyahu than exchanging angry messages on Twitter - on that too he differed
significantly from Lapid. All of the above has been true so far, despite the fact that good US-
Israeli relations and good Russian-Iranian relations would suggest that Israel and Russia can
only have bad relations.

Netanyahu has previously repeatedly referred to Putin as a "friend". The Israeli prime
minister has visited Russia more than ten times since 2015, and during the 2019 election
campaign proudly displayed a poster of the country with a picture of him shaking hands with
Putin. Perhaps that is why many Israelis were shocked that a Hamas delegation went to
Moscow on 26 October to meet with senior Russian officials. The Israeli foreign ministry
labeled this ’support for terror’ and called on the Russians to expel Hamas - Time recalls.

But where does Russia stand on the current Israel-Hamas war? Russia has not called the 7
October Hamas attack an act of terror. The fact that Putin's call to Netanyahu came after a
week and a half is a strong signal in itself. Meanwhile, Russian officials have called on both
sides to lay down their arms and reaffirmed their support for the plan to establish a
Palestinian state. Russia, on the other hand, condemned Israel's counter-strikes in Gaza,
even if it did not break off relations with Israel. They claimed that they welcomed Hamas
because it was important to maintain relations with both sides in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the meetings were part of Russia's
efforts to secure the release of hostages in Gaza. Hamas has also indicated that they are
trying to give special treatment to the Russian hostages because Russia is a "long-standing
friend".
The question is how much Russian foreign policy may change as a result of the current war.
According to the Ukrainians, Russia has been supporting Hamas with arms, but there is no
evidence of this, nor of the Russian propaganda claim that Hamas has received Ukrainian
arms. Moreover, it should be noted that there is no evidence that Russia was involved in
instigating or planning the 7 October attacks or supplying weapons to Hamas - even if the
attack took place on Putin's birthday (as some Western observers have reminded).

But there is no shortage of crude statements. On 28 October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov said that the bombing of Gaza was contrary to international law, and Putin himself
likened Israel's blockade of Gaza to the siege of Leningrad by Nazi Germany in World War II -
a highly offensive choice of words. Russia may be a passive beneficiary of the war in the
sense that, while they have failed to make a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front, the
Pentagon has decided, according to Axios, to send Israel tens of thousands of 155 mm
artillery shells originally intended for Ukraine. America insists that they can support both
Ukraine and Israel at the same time - the question is how much and for how long.

Of course, if Russia decides to support Hamas with more than just words, their relationship
with Israel will surely suffer. The Turkish-Israeli relationship has suffered serious damage for
less. Meanwhile, it should be seen that analysts believe that the prolonged Russo-Ukrainian
war has radicalised the Russian leadership and that the Israeli relationship is being
interpreted within the framework of a new Cold War with America, rather than on the basis
of the good relations that existed before. Furthermore, it is possible that America is also
pressuring Israel behind the scenes to abandon the good relationship.

Increased tension with Iran, whether on the American or Israeli side, could also have a
negative impact on the Russian-Israeli relationship. Although Ukrainian President Zelensky
has tried to fill the void left by Russia, his proposal to visit the country does not seem to
have been supported by Israel - for which, of course, the Ukrainian press has been angry. All
in all, we are witnessing that in a world that is increasingly being separated into ’blocs’, and
heading towards a new Cold War, strict, 'no-deflection' alliances and hostilities are limiting
diplomatic and trade relations - and even a country like Israel, which has previously enjoyed
good relations with both Russia and America, cannot seem to escape this.