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Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Evaluating approaches for district-wide energy model calibration T


considering the Urban Heat Island effect

Luis Guilherme Resende Santosa, Afshin Afsharia, , Leslie K. Norfordb, Jiachen Maob
a
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi 54224, United Arab Emirates
b
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States

H I G H L I G H T S

• Evaluation of the impact of the urban context via district-scale modelling and inverse parameter estimation (calibration).
• Automated calibration process for 56 buildings in a representative district in Abu Dhabi.
• AInforms
straightforward methodology to calibrate a large number of buildings, considering the urban microclimate condition.
• city planners, energy engineers, and governmental agencies on building energy efficiency and UHI intensity.

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Over the past decade, the building energy research community has increasingly focused on urban-scale models.
Energy modelling The shortcomings of analyzing isolated buildings in an urban context are well-known and far from negligible,
Urban energy model mainly due to the inability to account for Urban Heat Island (UHI), shading from neighboring obstructions, and
EnergyPlus obstructed wind flow. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the urban context via urban-scale
District-wide model calibration
modelling and inverse parameter estimation (calibration) using metered building energy consumption. We de-
Genetic algorithm
scribe an automated calibration process for modelling 56 buildings in a representative district in downtown Abu
Urban heat Island
Dhabi (UAE), where a detailed energy audit was conducted with data from 2008 to 2010. Since the urban
ambient air temperature could differ significantly from the reference rural air temperature used in most building
simulations, the calibration procedure will also consider this UHI effect. Two main approaches of district-wide
energy model calibration are proposed using a genetic algorithm and compared to a baseline case where UHI is
not considered. The first approach estimates seven building-related parameters together with four microclimate-
related variables (describing annual average and seasonal variation of the UHI effect on both air temperature
and humidity). The second one uses the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) to pre-process the urban EPW file,
thereby reducing the number of the parameters to be estimated. In addition, two approaches are investigated for
the calculation of the ASHRAE Guideline 14 calibration error metrics (CvRMSE and NMBE). One approach is to
look at the whole district as one aggregate building, while the other, introduced for the first time herein, consists
in deriving the weighted-average of the error of each building. The main contribution of this study is to provide
simultaneous calibration for multiple buildings in the same district—and subject to the same UHI intensity.
Hence, the UHI intensity (urban-rural temperature/humidity differential) is estimated alongside other calibra-
tion parameters. For the weighted average approach, CvRMSE found is between 19.09% and 19.40%, while
NMBE is between 16.24% and 16.39%. For the aggregated building, CvRMSE is between 2.71% and 4.04%,
while NMBE is between 1.95% and 2.35%.

1. Introduction quantified throughout the world in cities with various morphologies


and climates. This phenomenon is a major determinant of the urban
The rapid development and growth of urban areas has caused sig- microclimate and influences, sometimes significantly, the indoor space
nificant impacts on the built environment. One of the consequences is conditioning energy use in buildings.
the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, which has been studied and Physics-based building energy models (BEM) have been used


Corresponding author.
E-mail address: aafshari@masdar.ac.ae (A. Afshari).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.01.089
Received 15 November 2017; Received in revised form 24 January 2018; Accepted 28 January 2018
Available online 20 February 2018
0306-2619/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

extensively in research and engineering for the estimation of heating/ tree shading, and district cooling. The study highlighted the potential
cooling energy demand. BEMs take into account various heat exchanges for energy savings, especially with the use of cool surfaces that can be
that may occur within the building and between the building and its implemented at low cost. Furthermore, specific attention was drawn to
immediate environment. BEM parameters are often derived from design policies and standards to motivate the implementation of new tech-
specifications. Commonly used BEM software engines include DOE-2, nologies and reduce CO2 emissions. Rizwan et al. [4] compiled different
EnergyPlus, and TRNSYS. works of mitigation strategies and reported the resulting temperature
In the case of existing buildings with a recorded history of opera- reduction and savings. The studies mainly include increase of vegeta-
tion, a calibration process can be conducted to better estimate uncertain tion, reduction of anthropogenic heat, increase of shading, cool roofs,
BEM parameters. Calibration can be either manual or automated. The and humidification. Rossi et al. [6] investigated the use of reflective
goal of calibration is to reduce the discrepancy between model outputs surfaces and concluded that it could reduce radiative effects, especially
(e.g. simulated building energy consumption) and measurements ex- in areas with buildings in close proximity. Santamouris [7] studied
tracted from real buildings (e.g., utility meters). Once the model is reflective and green roofs as mitigation levers for heat islands, con-
properly calibrated, it could potentially allow for building performance sidering the limitation of this solution for high-rise buildings, but
evaluations under different conditions, enabling the comparison of al- highlighting the potential for latent heat losses. The author concluded
ternative design options and retrofit scenarios. that the reflective roofs gain advantage in sunny climates, while ve-
However, one recognized obstacle is that the current BEM practice getation presents higher benefits in colder climates.
rarely incorporates the specific urban microclimatic characteristics. In
the quasi totality of cases, buildings are simulated in isolation without 2.2. Energy modelling
any surrounding buildings and ‘rural’ environment is assumed. The
weather files used in simulations are usually extracted from local air- 2.2.1. Building energy model (BEM)
port weather stations. This study proposes several adaptations to the A typical building energy model (BEM) is a white-box engineering
common practice in order to model and calibrate BEMs considering the model used for estimating real or proposed building thermal behavior.
urban microclimate at a district level. A series of detailed calculations is conducted by the model, based on a
We modelled a district in downtown Abu Dhabi (UAE) composed of large amount of information such as building characteristics, climate
67 buildings for which relatively detailed information was gathered in conditions, and activity schedules [8]. The high input uncertainty, quite
the course of an energy audit conducted in 2011. We investigate two common given the level of detail required, often leads to lower accu-
novel district-wide calibration approaches that incorporate the UHI racy of the simulated output. Furthermore, developing a reliable model
effect and compare to a more conventional calibration with rural is a long-term process that requires a high level of expertise. That is why
weather. The first proposed approach uses an urban energy model simplified models are often used and it is up to an expert modeler to
wherein the urban-rural temperature/humidity differential due to UHI decide which assumptions and simplifications should be made [9].
will be estimated during the calibration process together with the Sensitivity analysis is thus recommended to understand how certain
building-related properties. The second proposed approach involves a variables affect the building performance [10]. Applications of BEM
pre-processing of the reference rural weather data using the Urban include:
Weather Generator (UWG) [1] before the calibration process. The
latter, then, only tunes the building-related parameters. • Testing of new technologies, estimating savings and potential for
The main novelty of this study, therefore, is that it proposes a dis- retrofits, such as green roofs [11]or thermochromic glazing [12],
trict-wide energy model calibration procedure accounting for the UHI. • Parametric analysis to test feasibility, cost-benefit, and design op-
Through the introduction of new error metrics similar to those set forth tion for a real project [13],
in ASHRAE Guideline 14, the calibration attempts to simultaneously • Verifying compliance for certifications, such as the LEED, BREEAM
minimize the global district level modelling error and the building level (UK), Green Star (Australia), Estidama (Abu Dhabi, UAE), etc. [14],
modelling error. • Estimating more suitable solutions for different regions and climates
[15],
2. Literature review • Research or consultancy work for design, retrofits, operation, and
commissioning [14],
2.1. Urban Heat Island • Generation of life cycle cost (LCC) and life cycle analysis (LCA), as
well as measurement and verification (M&V) [13].
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has been observed in many cities
worldwide. It is a complex phenomenon that results in urban tem- 2.2.2. Urban energy model (UEM)
peratures that are, in average, higher than surrounding rural areas. The Energy system modelling has been well explored at the building
UHI is caused by several factors, including increased absorption of the level. Over the past four decades, we have achieved significant progress
short-wave radiation (from reduced solar reflectance of urban surfaces), in modelling the heat and mass flows entering or leaving buildings to
increased sensible heat storage (in urban structures), generation of the point where, given reasonably comprehensive input data, most si-
anthropogenic heat (mainly from air-conditioning system heat rejection mulation engines can predict future energy use of standard construc-
and motorized vehicles), reduced evapotranspiration (due to the lack of tions with acceptable accuracy. However, the study of the UHI requires
vegetation in urban areas), reduced sensible heat losses (due to reduced the use of neighborhood-to-city scale urban energy models (UEMs).
wind speeds in urban canyons), etc. [2]. In general, there is a growing The BEMs usually run simulations under isolated conditions (no
concern about the UHI effect, especially during the summer when shading effect from adjacent buildings) and consider that rural weather
outdoor air temperatures are considerably higher and heat waves may conditions, uniformly distributed around the envelope, prevail. The
endanger public health and aggravate air pollution. Furthermore, the latest UEMs have been created as adaptations to traditional BEM soft-
UHI impacts the building indoor space conditioning load [3]. To ware and are able to model, to varying degrees, the interactions be-
quantify these impacts, one simple indicator is the Urban Heat Island tween the building, occupant, and environment [16].
(UHI) intensity, usually defined as the temperature difference between Pisello et al. [17] considered inter-building effect to study how they
the urban area and surrounding rural area. Distinct climates and levels influence the accuracy of building energy performance evaluations.
of urbanization tend to present different UHI intensities [4]. They concluded that, when evaluating the energy performance of a
In order to mitigate the UHI effect, Rosenfeld, et al. [5] explored single building, the special relationship with surrounding buildings
solutions at building and city scales, including cool (reflective) surfaces, should be taken into account. Martin et al. [18] coupled an urban

32
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

canopy model with EnergyPlus using the Building Controls Visual Test such standards as ASHRAE Guideline 14 [25] to confirm its com-
Bed (BCVTB) to estimate temperature and humidity for urban canyon in pliance. For calibration with monthly data, an absolute MBE
Masdar city, Abu Dhabi. Reinhart et al. [19] reviewed emerging UEM smaller than 5% and a CvRMSE smaller than 15% are deemed ac-
methods and gave an overlook for future development. Frayssinet et al. ceptable.
[20] studied the impacts of adaptations of building envelopes for dis-
trict energy simulations. It was observed that the mean differences Calibration can be conducted via a manual or automated method.
between modelled and measured (under 4%) are significantly lower Manual calibration, although more common and requiring less pre-
than maximum differences, indicated by the peak loads for heating and paration, might need more labor time to test many possibilities and is
cooling. prone to errors. In this process, an expert manually changes a set of
Another example is the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) by Bueno parameters, trying to achieve satisfactory results. Automated methods,
et al. [1]. The UWG calculates the urban air temperatures via four on the other hand, usually make use of an algorithm to change the
coupled models based on the rural meteorological data and mesoscale parameters within boundaries and evaluate the simulation result, di-
information to account for various properties in the target neighbor- recting the test of parameters towards an optimal result [26]. In par-
hood (e.g. building, street, vegetation, etc.). First, the Rural Station ticular, a genetic algorithm (GA) is often used for simulation-based
Model calculates the sensible heat fluxes at the (rural) weather station optimization and automated model calibration. Although GA does not
at the soil surface. Next, the Vertical Diffusion Model calculates profiles indicate a single optimal solution, it is able to solve convex problems
of air temperature above the rural site. Then, the Urban Boundary Layer and take into account multiple objectives, allowing the user to choose
Model calculates the air temperature above the urban canopy player. the best fit depending on the situation according to a Pareto curve
Finally, the Urban Canopy and Building Energy Model finishes the distribution. Any automated calibration is bound to be slow because it
process by calculating the urban sensible heat fluxes and estimating executes the relatively complex BEMs many times before it converges to
urban canyon air temperature and humidity. Therefore, the UWG an optimal/sub-optimal solution.
output is the urban microclimate condition as a result of the rural Extensive research has been conducted in this field and compiled in
weather condition and various properties in the target neighborhood literature in the past years. Nguyen et al. [27] reviewed optimization
(e.g. building, street, vegetation, etc.). With continuous development methods, observing that the GAs are by far the most used method given
and update, it has been validated in Toulouse (France), Basel (Swit- their ability to handle continuous and discontinuous variables, to solve
zerland) [1], Singapore [21], and Abu Dhabi (UAE) [22]. The UWG was multi-objective problems, to avoid local minima, and to allow multi-
generally able to represent the urban microclimate condition with processor simulation. The most popular optimization engines are Ma-
reasonable accuracy for all those cases. In addition, Mao et al. [22] tlab and GenOpt, while EnergyPlus and TRNSYS are the most common
performed a global sensitivity analysis of urban microclimate using the BEM tools used in the calibration process. Royapoor and Roskilly [28]
UWG tool with 30 candidate inputs, including meteorological factors, coupled an EnergyPlus model with two environmental data sensors,
urban characteristics, vegetation variables, and building systems. For highlighting the importance of including local weather files in the ca-
the case of Abu Dhabi, the most critical parameters are also the para- libration process. Ruiz et al. [29] used GA for building envelope cali-
meters with high uncertainty, such as the reference height of the ver- bration, considering a parametric and sensitivity analysis for the ele-
tical diffusion model, the urban canopy model boundary layer exchange ments of the façade and using jEPlus + EA for the optimization, proving
coefficient, the fraction of waste heat into urban canyon, and the night- its feasibility and showing the advantages of a precise automated pro-
time urban boundary layer height. cess. Chaudhary et al. [30] compared a whole-building calibration by
manual and automated approaches. Using automated optimization, the
2.3. Model calibration calibration results were similar to the results from a manual process but
around 6 to 7 times faster. Sun et al. [31] used a pattern-based ap-
Calibration methods are used to reduce discrepancies between si- proach for an automated Building Energy Model calibration, comparing
mulated and real buildings, usually based on measured data. These two patterns: (1) simulated monthly electricity consumption compared
differences in the models are due mainly to different sources of un- to monthly electricity bill and (2) simulated monthly gas consumption
certainty, either resulting from lack of information or modelling lim- compared to monthly natural gas bill. The process identifies and
itations a priori. The least uncertain parameters should be used in early eliminates universal and seasonal bias, respectively, using the Com-
simulation stages. The estimated baseline model after calibration is mercial Building Energy Saver (CBES) toolkit. The tuning steps for the
considered more suitable for building design, operation, diagnosis, and calibration included changes in lighting power intensity, occupancy
commissioning [23]. Amongst the benefits of calibration, Raftery et al. density, average outdoor airflow per person and cooling COP with
[24] highlighted the potential to estimate savings from retrofit options monthly values measurements and simulations. It was concluded that,
and to acquire information to enhance future design and develop best- although some limitations of calibration are maintained and the tool
practice recommendations. Monetti et al. [23] suggested a workflow for does not offer a wider range of building types and model parameters, it
calibration that is summarized as follows: is a feasible process capable of identifying and adjusting bias. Lara et al.
[32] conducted a process of calibration in a large school building in
(1) Carry out a building energy audit and define a model based on Treviso (Italy) using jEPlus and jEPlus + EA. The tool jEPlus couples
design data (uncalibrated); with EnergyPlus for parametric analysis and allows an implementation
(2) Use metered data to refine the modelling inputs. If possible, un- of GA to conduct a calibration process. Comparing the results of the
certainty and sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine parametric analysis with the genetic optimization, both reached the
inputs that significantly influence the building energy performance; best monthly NMBE and CvRMSE. The GA presents an advantage of
(3) Conduct an optimization process, altering uncertain parameters shorter simulation time (90 h compared to 4746 h from the parametric
based on certain constrains. This process aims to minimize the analysis) and fewer simulations (1368 compared to 72,030 from the
difference between measured and simulated data. The optimization parametric analysis). Hong et al. [33] coupled the EnergyPlus model
finishes when the global or near-global minimum is found, and it with a Python optimization script aiming to minimize the CvRMSE.
should give results that match closely the monitored data; After establishing the building energy simulation model, a CvRMSE of
(4) Validate the optimized parameter set. Mean bias error (MBE) or its 18.1% was calculated and the design variables were set. Then, a GA was
normalized value (NMBE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) or its initiated to adjust the uncertain parameters, reducing the CvRMSE to
coefficient of variation (CvRMSE) are calculated in accordance with 12.62%.

33
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

(including the one dedicated to the chiller plant), disruption in the


periodic measurements of the utility meter data, large portions of the
building not being used, and large positive bias that indicates an unu-
sual consumption that is much higher than the average. All the build-
ings (including the ones removed from the calibration) will still be
considered as adjacent shading obstacles for neighboring buildings.
The District E3-02 is representative of downtown Abu Dhabi, with
high-rise buildings on the periphery (along the main roads) and low/
mid-rise buildings in the inner part. Mixed-use buildings are quite
common in downtown Abu Dhabi. Since it is impractical to fully
characterize all building properties at the urban scale in an audit, the
Fig. 1. Workflow of information/data in the proposed calibration procedure. buildings were assumed to be subdivided into three main use types:
residential, commercial, and retail. The gross floor area (GFA) for built-
3. Methodology up was 552,190 m2, with 97% of the area (537,740 m2) air-conditioned.
The energy audit provided the following inputs for each building:
In this study, we propose two main approaches for energy model
calibration at the district level, which will be compared with a baseline • Building height;
case in order to see how the building-related parameters are tuned • Window-to-wall ratio (glazing percentage);
when simulations incorporate the impact of the urban microclimate. • U-values – including values for the wall, roof, and window;
The baseline case is a standard district simulation, where only the • Typology distribution – percentage of the buildings that corresponds
building parameters are calibrated and the reference rural weather file to retail, office, and residential usage;
is assumed to prevail (the UHI effect is neglected). The first proposed • Electricity consumption (meter readings).
approach (Method 1 or M1) intends to simultaneously tune the un-
certain parameters related to the building energy and the coefficients 3.2. Baseline model
describing the UHI intensity. The second proposed approach (Method 2
or M2) is similar to the first one, except that the weather file is pre- The baseline BEMs are developed in EnergyPlus, a well-known and
processed by the UWG. The latter incorporates information related to reliable tool for building-level dynamic simulation [34] that can
urban morphology and building/road properties in order to create an quickly simulate the performance for multiple buildings during a full
urban EPW file at the target street level. Consequently, only the year by automating the process with the use of a single script. We use
building-related parameters are calibrated in Method 2, given that the the Rhino 3-D modeler (with the Grasshopper graphical algorithm
weather variables are assumed to have already been adapted to the editor and Honeybee, and Ladybug plug-ins) to describe the building-
specific urban microclimate. related inputs. The 56 buildings were developed separately, but in each
As shown in Fig. 1, the calibration process starts by analyzing the case, adjacent buildings were included as shading obstacles (Fig. 3).
data and information obtained from an energy audit. At this stage, the The HVAC system was considered to be ideal with constant COP
major building design parameters are extracted, together with the (Coefficient of Performance) of 2.5. Since we are considering several
measured monthly electricity consumption data from utility meters. buildings as case study and chiller performance was not assessed at part
The unknown input parameters for the subsequent calibration are se- of the previously conducted energy audit, we opted for a constant COP
lected at the end of this stage. Finally, the unknown parameters are value to represent the seasonal efficiency. The selected seasonal COP
tuned in order to identify the plausible set of values that can minimize value is inferred from several pilot projects in the downtown area.
the model/measurement discrepancy. In the present study, this cali- Several parameters, not included in the energy audit, will be esti-
bration process is automatically conducted using heuristic-based opti- mated during the calibration procedure. They are assumed to be the
mization (i.e. GA). same for all buildings or, in some cases, differ only on the basis of use
type. These calibration parameters are:

3.1. Data analysis • Albedo: Average solar reflectance of the walls and roofs (one para-
meter);
The selected case study is District E3-02 in downtown Abu Dhabi • Internal gains: One value per use type: residential, retail, and office
(UAE), where an energy audit was conducted in 2011 for the previous (three parameters). The schedule was considered to be “always on”,
three years (i.e. 2008–2010). The district is composed of 67 mixed-use therefore the gains are estimated as average annual values;
buildings. This study will consider only 56 buildings that have reliable • Infiltration: Infiltration rate in air changes per hour (ACH) is esti-
meter data. The remaining buildings were removed in our analysis mated with two different values: one for the residential use type
based on the enforcement of two statistical criteria. The first criterion where operable windows are common and the other for the retail/
assumes a normal distribution for the annual energy use intensity (EUI) office use type with predominantly non-operable windows (two
of each building and eliminates buildings that have an EUI deviating parameters);
from the mean by more than two standard deviations (2σ or 95% • Window SHGC: The average solar heat gain coefficient of glazing
confidence interval). The second elimination criterion looks at the ratio (one parameter);
of peak monthly energy use (corresponding to the month of August) • UHI intensity parameters (for Method 1 only): Daily and seasonal
over annual energy use for each building and retains, once again, the profiles of urban-rural temperature and humidity differentials are
buildings that are within ± 2σof the mean. As a result, the first filter parameterized using periodic functions (four parameters). This
removes seven buildings while the second filter removes an additional parameterization procedure will be explained in detail in the fol-
four buildings, leaving 56 buildings for the calibration analysis. The lowing subsections.
histogram for each criterion (before elimination of outliers) is depicted
in Fig. 2, together with its corresponding mean (μ) and standard de- 3.3. Model calibration
viation (σ).
The possible reasons for a building to be out of range might include: A Matlab script, dynamically coupled with EnergyPlus, is used for
information missing from some of the building’s utility meters all calibration approaches. Calibration processes include a standard

34
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

14 9

8
12
7
10
6

Number of buildings
Number of buildings

8 5

4
6

3
4
2

2
1

0 0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0.09 0.095 0.1 0.105 0.11 0.115 0.12 0.125 0.13 0.135
Building's annual energy intensity [kWh/m²] peak monthly energy use / building annual consumption ratio

Fig. 2. Building’s annual energy intensity with mean (μ) = 278.58 and standard-deviation (σ) = 72.25 (left), and peak monthly energy ratio with mean (μ) = 0.115 and standard-
deviation (σ) = 0.008364 (right).

one of the simulated buildings. Significantly, each IDF file incorporates


the shading effect of adjacent structures. Based on prior information,
parameter lower/upper bounds are defined and enforced during the
calibration process.
Calibration was performed using a genetic algorithm (GA), known
for being robust to local minima and allowing straightforward in-
corporation of multiple objectives. GA has been widely used in building
energy model calibration, as described in Section 2.3. The algorithm
iteratively modifies the parameters leading to an optimal or near-op-
timal solution. A population size of 25 was applied for the baseline and
Method 2 and increased to 30 for Method 1, since the latter has four
more parameters. The maximum number of generations is set to 150.
Fig. 3. Treatment of shading obstacles (red) for an individual building (yellow with
The default Matlab settings were kept for the crossover (scattered) and
glazing area in blue). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,
the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) mutation operator (Gaussian).
Our calibration is based on a bi-objective optimization, as the al-
gorithm aims to achieve an optimal solution minimizing two model
district calibration with rural weather (baseline) and two methods to
accuracy criteria: CvRMSE and NMBE. The latter are determined as
account for the urban microclimate and specifically the UHI intensity.
weighted averages. We defined two approaches to quantify model ac-
Method 1 calibrates both a detailed building energy model and an ap-
curacy: the weighted-average building approach (Eqs. (1) and (2)) and
proximate parameterization of the UHI intensity, while Method 2 ca-
the grouped building approach (Eqs. (3) and (4)). For the weighted-
librates only the building energy model and derives a temperature-only
average building, the GA finds the set of parameters that will provide
assessment of the UHI intensity from the UWG module. The UWG cal-
the best model fit for each building. For the grouped building, we
culation is performed offline and results in the adjustment of the re-
consider the aggregate building energy consumption and try to find the
ference weather file used in subsequent online simulations.
optimal model corresponding to a fictitious building that would re-
present the combination of all the selected buildings in the district.
3.3.1. Standard energy model calibration (baseline) Given the incremental challenge of minimizing the CvRMSE and NMBE
3.3.1.1. Weather. The reference weather file contains hourly data for each building, the error for the weighted average building approach is
measured during calendar year 2010 at a rural weather station preferred as the target of the bi-objective calibration. The error corre-
located in Masdar City. Available data include air temperature, sponding to the grouped building approach will still be reported for the
relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar radiation optimal solution in order to illustrate discussion in subsequent sub-
(Global Horizontal Irradiance, Direct Normal Irradiance and Diffuse sections.
Horizontal Irradiance). In the baseline case, as highlighted before, the For the weighted average building approach:
reference weather file is used, unaltered, during the calibration process
12
and only the building-related parameters are adjusted (seven N ∑ j = 1 (deij )2 1
parameters). yCvRMSE = 100∗ ∑ ∗ [%]
i=1
11 E (1)

3.3.1.2. Automated multi-objective coupled calibration. For each iteration 12

of the calibration, a Matlab script runs an EnergyPlus simulation for N


∑ deij
each building using a selected set of parameters. This loop automates j=1 1
yNMBE = 100∗ ∑ ∗ [%]
the calibration, enabling the optimization algorithm to change the i=1
11 E
parameters at each iteration. The discrepancy between simulated and (2)
measured electricity consumption is the basis for calibration. All of the
EnergyPlus IDF files are stored together, with each file corresponding to For the grouped building approach:

35
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

Baseline Model Method 1 (Weather calibration) Method 2 (UWG)


16.83 16.35 16.41

16.82 16.4
16.3
16.39
16.81 16.25
16.38
16.8 16.2 16.37
16.79 16.15 16.36
19.74 19.76 19.78 19.8 19.25 19.35 19.45 19.55 19.65 19.05 19.1 19.15 19.2
Fig. 4. Pareto front for the three calibrations observed with solution chosen (red) x-axis: CvRMSE and y-axis: NMBE. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the
reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

12 N Table 1
∑ j = 1 ( ∑i = 1 deij )2 1
YCvRMSE = 100∗ ∗ [%] Summary of the calibrated parameters.
11 E (3)
Parameter Calibrated parameters
12 N
∑ j = 1 (∑i = 1 deij )
YNMBE = 100∗ [%] Baseline Method 1 (M1) Method 2
11 (4) Weather (M2)
calibration UWG
where deij is the monthly electricity use difference for building i, j is the
month of the year (1 to 12), E is the mean monthly energy use over all Wall and roof albedo 0.46 0.69 0.65
months and all buildings and N is the total number of the buildings. Internal gain (retail) [W/m2] 10.65 5.15 6.54
Internal gain (office) [W/m2] 10.23 8.77 10.05
Internal gain (residential) [W/m2] 12.46 12.67 12.92
3.3.2. Detailed energy and weather model calibration (Method 1) Infiltration (retail and office) [ACH] 0.49 0.50 0.42
Since one of the main goals of this paper is to estimate the UHI Infiltration (residential) [ACH] 0.66 0.65 0.67
intensity, the weather file used in the baseline case (2010) is now ad- Window SHGC 0.51 0.46 0.61
justed at each iteration as a part of the calibration process. Based on the Average annual urban/rural – 0.54 1.08a
temperature bias [°C]
average diurnal profile of the UHI intensity for Abu Dhabi [2] as well as
Urban/rural seasonal temperature – 1.09 –
the actual measurement at the urban/rural sites in Abu Dhabi, it was variation [°C]
determined that the diurnal profile of the urban/rural temperature and Average annual humidity bias [g/g] – 0.16 –
humidity differential can be conveniently fitted into periodic (diurnal) Urban/rural seasonal humidity – −0.08 –
functions. variation [g/g]

The temperature differential profile can be expressed as: a


Temperature daily variation for Method 2 was not calibrated, but calculated from the
2πt π 4πt π ⎤ UWG (output from pre-processing stage).
UHITemp = A + 2.5 ⎡cos ⎛ − ⎞−0.3cos ⎛ − ⎞
⎣ ⎝ 24 4 ⎠ ⎝ 24 15 ⎠ ⎦
2πm π observation, sporadic measurement or anecdotic evidence: no vegeta-
+ B ⎡sin ⎛ + ⎞⎤
⎣ ⎝ 12 2 ⎠⎦ (5) tion, initial temperature of 20 °C, glazing ratio of 50%, window U-value
of 3.88 W/m2, window SHGC of 0.75, envelope infiltration of 0.75
where A is the overall annual average of UHI intensity (to be cali-
ACH, indoor air set point of 22 °C, HVAC waste fraction1 of 50%, and
brated), B is the amplitude of seasonal variation (to be calibrated), t is
constant cooling COP of 2.5. The other parameters, especially the ones
the time of day in hours (1 to 24), and m is the corresponding month of
related to the urban boundary layer and the rural site, were set in ac-
the year (1 to 12).The specific humidity differential profile can be ex-
cordance with one of our previous studies (cf. [22]).
pressed as:
The process of calibration is exactly the same as the one applied in
2
1 (t − 12)
2πm π the baseline scenario, except that the reference weather is pre-pro-
× ⎛⎜C . e + ⎞ ⎞⎟
−0.5.
UHIHum = 2.52 + D . sin ⎛
1000 ⎝ ⎝ 12 2 ⎠⎠ cessed off-line and adapted to account for the UHI in District E3-02.
(6)
where C is the maximum daily UHI intensity at noon (to be calibrated), 4. Results and discussion
D is the amplitude of seasonal variation (to be calibrated), t is the time
of day in hours (1 to 24), and m is the corresponding month of the year As each calibration performed by the GA gives a set of optimal or
(1 to 12). These profiles were derived based on the observation of the near-optimal results represented on a Pareto front, we selected as op-
actual UHI profiles in Abu Dhabi. timal the knee point, which is closest to the ‘utopia point’. The Pareto
front for the three calibrations can be observed in Fig. 4.
3.3.3. Detailed energy model calibration with UWG (Method 2)
The UWG converts a reference rural weather file to the estimated
4.1. Parameter
urban conditions at a neighborhood scale based on specific urban area
characteristics. Starting with the rural weather data in an EPW format
The selected parameters were calibrated using the bi-objective GA
and the urban characteristics, the UWG outputs the simulated urban
to find the optimal or near-optimal solution that could minimize the
weather data (over an entire calendar year or a subset thereof). In this
combination of CvRMSE and NMBE for weighted average buildings. A
study, these calculations are executed using a Matlab script (.m). The
summary of the calibrated parameters is presented in Table 1.
main output is an adjusted (urban) weather file in EPW format [35].
For the envelope’s albedo, a value of 0.65 (M1) or 0.69 (M2) was
UWG constructs a simplified mono-zone energy model of the
average building and relates it to the rural weather via an urban
boundary layer model. Some of the parameters required for the speci- 1
The “HVAC waste heat fraction” is the fraction of the chiller waste heat that is re-
fication of UWG’s urban canopy model were estimated based on direct jected directly into the urban canyon.

36
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

0.8
Method 1 0.8
Method 2

0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 Albedo 0.4 Window SHGC


Window SHGC Albedo
0.3 0.3

1000
1111
1222
1333
1444
1555
1666
1777
1888
1999
2110
2221
2332
2443
2554
2665
1
112
223
334
445
556
667
778
889
1171
1366
1561
1756
1951
2146
2341
2536
2731
2926
3121
3316
3511
3706
3901
4096
4291
4486
4681
196
391
586
781
976
1

Fig. 5. Convergence of envelope’s albedo and window SHGC (y-axis) by number of iterations (x-axis).

Method 1 Method 2
30 30
I.G. (Retail) I.G. (Retail)
25 25
I.G. (Office) I.G. (Office)
20 I.G. (Residential) 20 I.G. (Residential)

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
1087
1268
1449
1630
1811
1992
2173
2354
2535
2716
2897
3078
3259
3440
3621
3802
3983
4164
4345
4526
1
182
363
544
725
906

1
112
223
334
445
556
667
778
889
1000
1111
1222
1333
1444
1555
1666
1777
1888
1999
2110
2221
2332
2443
2554
2665
Fig. 6. Convergence of internal gains [W/m2] parameters (y-axis) by number of iterations (x-axis).

Method 1 Method 2
0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3
Inf. (Retail and Office) Inf. (Residential) Inf. (Retail and Office) Inf. (Residential)
0.2 0.2
1
189
377
565
753
941
1129
1317
1505
1693
1881
2069
2257
2445
2633
2821
3009
3197
3385
3573
3761
3949
4137
4325
4513

1000
1111
1222
1333
1444
1555
1666
1777
1888
1999
2110
2221
2332
2443
2554
2665
112
223
334
445
556
667
778
889
1

Fig. 7. Convergence of infiltration [ACH] parameters (y-axis) by number of iterations (x-axis).

obtained, which corresponds to a light grey/brown. These are the increase in natural ventilation. For the baseline case, results are very
commonly observed façade features in District E3-02. Meanwhile, the similar, with 0.49 ACH for retail and office spaces and 0.66 for re-
baseline calibration provided a darker color (0.46). sidential.
The internal gains were found to be 5.15 or 6.54 W/m2 for retail The window SHGC indicates the percent of solar thermal energy
buildings, 8.77 or 10.05 for office buildings, and 12.67 or 12.92 for incident on the glass that is transferred indoors. For the case study, the
residential buildings (M1 or M2, respectively). The higher internal optimization obtained a value of 0.46 (M1) to 0.61 (M2), which is an
gains for residential buildings can possibly be a compensation for the average value between common clear glass and a mid-performance one.
fact that indoor spaces corresponding to this use type usually have less These are glazing types that could be commonly observed in the
efficient cooling systems with lower COPs. Furthermore, since the in- buildings of this district. The baseline value is between the two cali-
ternal gains are calculated as an average for an “always on” schedule, it brated values, with a SHGC of 0.51.
is expected that the retail and office buildings would present lower It can be observed that the albedo and internal gains were the
gains, given that they operate in reduced mode when the businesses are parameters that differed the most from the baseline and, Furthermore,
closed, whereas the residential buildings, in our current setting, tend to the two proposed methods are closer to each other than to the baseline.
be occupied continuously. The baseline provided overall higher internal This shows the relevance to include some type of urban microclimate
gains when compared to the other two methods. model (either on-line as in Method 1 or off-line as in Method 2) in the
For the infiltration, calibration identified the values of 0.50 (M1) calibration to estimate more accurate building properties—not to
and 0.42 (M2) ACH for retail and office buildings as well as 0.65 (M1) mention the fact that the UHI intensity estimate is valuable in itself.
to 0.67 (M2) ACH for residential buildings. In residential spaces, the Figs. 5–7 depict the convergence, after ordering, of building-related
area of operable windows and the time during which they stay open are parameters for Method 1 (4680 iterations) and Method 2 (2650 itera-
usually higher, so the increase in infiltration aims to compensate for the tions). Faster convergence is achieved in Method 2 compared to Method

37
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

4 Fig. 8. Daily variation of the temperature (°C) for Method


1 (red) and Method 2 (blue). (For interpretation of the
references to color in this figure legend, the reader is re-
3 ferred to the web version of this article.)
Urban Heat island intensity (°C )

Calibrated weather
UWG
2

-1

-2

-3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the day (h)

1. weather), which resulted in CvRMSE of 19.76% for NMBE of 16.8%.


For Method 1, the annual average daily UHI intensity is 0.54 °C Although these numbers are not compliant with the single building
while the seasonal average is 1.09 °C. These values are inserted into the calibration thresholds set by the ASHRAE Guideline 14 (15% and 5%,
Eq. (5) as parameters A and B respectively, and the resulting average respectively), they seem satisfactory for the calibration at a district
annual daily profile is then compared to the average annual daily level, especially given the very demanding nature of the weighted-
profile of UHI calculated by UWG in Method 2 (Fig. 8). The observed average building approach and the large diversity of constructions and
outcome of the proposed calibration methods provides a validation of use types in the case study at hand. The weighted-average buildings
the UWG model, given that both daily profiles follow a similar patterns approach estimates average properties of buildings and UHI intensity
and intensities, albeit with a notable mid-day difference. In Method 1, while ensuring that each building taken separated is accurately cali-
the monthly seasonal variation parameters indicate a peak of tem- brated to the greatest possible extent. In other words, this approach can
perature-related UHI intensity in winter. On the other hand, according be considered a combination of the grouped building approach (dis-
to Method 1, the urban/rural humidity differential is negligible. For cussed below) and individual BEM calibration.
Method 2, the weather is pre-processed by the UWG to estimate urban In the grouped building approach, monthly building energy con-
microclimate condition in the case study. This approach aims to reduce sumption is added up prior to calibration and the parameters found are
the number of parameters required for the calibration in order to applied to a fictitious aggregate building that represents the sum of all
achieve a faster calibration process. It is important to note that the real buildings. Therefore, it is closer to a standard single-building ca-
current version of UWG only adjusts dry-bulb temperature. The average libration. The CvRMSE was 4.04% (M1) and 2.71% (M2), while the
annual UHI intensity estimated for the year with UWG is 1.08. How- NMBE was 2.35% (M1) and 1.95% (M2). This approach is therefore
ever, UWG suggests a summer-time peak of the UHI intensity at odds capable of generating smaller errors, since in this case the calibration is
with the results of Method 1. performed for a fictitious aggregate building without considering the
specificities of individual buildings within the district. On the other
hand, the results are probably less reliable than the previous approach
4.2. Error in terms of the individual building performance. The baseline presents a
higher error for the grouped building’s CvRMSE (4.30%), but a lower
Together with the calibrated parameters, the discrepancies between one for the NMBE (1.52%).
the predicted and measured building electricity consumption were To see the calibration performance at the building level, the cali-
calculated. For a district-wide calibration, we calculated the CvRMSE brated parameters were used as inputs for each single BEM, calculating
and NMBE for both a weighted-average building approach and a the CvRMSE and NMBE for each one of the 56 buildings. Table 3 shows
grouped building approach (Table 2). the number of buildings (out of 56) that could meet each criteria
Using the weighted-average building approach, the CvRMSE values CvRMSE < 15% and NMBE < 5%, respectively. The buildings that
were found to be 19.09% (M1) and 19.40% (M2), while the NMBE meet both criteria are considered to be fully calibrated.
values were found to be 16.24% (M1) and 16.39% (M2). Both methods We can see that the best result is obtained from Method 2 (the UWG
that consider the UHI reveal lower errors than the baseline case (rural
Table 3
Table 2 Number of buildings compliant with ASHRAE Guideline 14.
Summary of errors for each calibration approach.
Criteria Number of buildings compliant
Scenario Error Calibration approach
Baseline Method 1 (M1) Method 2 Baseline Method 1 (M1) Method 2
Weather (M2) Weather (M2)
calibration UWG calibration UWG

Weighted-average CvRMSE 19.76% 19.40% 19.09% CvRMSE (< 15%) 30 28 29


building approach NMBE 16.80% 16.24% 16.39% NMBE (< 5%) 12 15 16
Grouped building CvRMSE 4.30% 4.04% 2.71% Fully calibrated (CvRMSE < 15% 12 13 15
approach NMBE 1.52% 2.35% 1.95% and NMBE < 5%)

38
L.G.R. Santos et al. Applied Energy 215 (2018) 31–40

simulations), where 29 buildings (52% of all buildings) are calibrated buildings and grouped buildings. The percentage of individually cali-
for CvRMSE, 16 buildings (29% of total) are calibrated for NMBE, and brated buildings also can assist in revealing the accuracy of the cali-
15 buildings (27% of total) are compliant with both CvRMSE and NMBE brated model.
criteria (i.e. fully calibrated at the building level according to current
standards). 5.1. Limitation
These results reveal the challenge to have compliance at the
building level by performing a district-wide model calibration, espe- Limitations include data inaccuracy for some of the buildings,
cially considering the diversity of buildings that could be observed in a especially with regard to utility meter data. Pre-processing data from
single urban district. In this case study, the diversity of number of the energy audit (to eliminate outliers) is necessary but does not
floors, typologies, schedules and equipment technology requires drastic guarantee that all the data used is completely reliable, which might
simplifying assumptions in model settings. In order to increase the cause slight variations in the expected result of a calibration process.
number of individually calibrated buildings, a subdivision of the dis- Given that the energy measurements provided by the audit were only
trict/city in terms of building archetypes (i.e. typologies, buildings age, monthly and not hourly, it was not possible to exactly determine peak
buildings height etc.) would be recommended, given that similar load. The weather data may also present some limitations, depending
buildings tend to give more reliable individual parameters for one ar- on the years observed and the functions and software used to adapt it
chetype. from rural to urban.
Regarding the model limitations, the assumptions that unknown
5. Conclusion building parameters are the same for all buildings or for given use
types, may influence the outcome. Furthermore, the UWG tool (M2)
This study evaluates two main approaches for an automated district- and the simplified UHI parameterization (M1) used in this study present
wide calibration via genetic algorithm, coupling building energy their own shortcomings.
models with the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect to generate a more Although, at each iteration, the individual BMES were executed in
accurate energy model. The development of an urban energy model parallel to save time (using a powerful multi-processor desktop), the GA
calibration aims to reduce the computational time for the case with a procedure has a very high computational cost. This fact hindered our
large number of neighboring buildings. Furthermore, it seems not ability to run a large number of GA optimizations to ensure achieve-
possible to incorporate the UHI effect in model calibration for single ment of a global minimum.
buildings, given that each calibration would provide a different value
for temperature difference. Thus, the averaging effect of calibrating Acknowledgment
numerous building provides a robust estimate of the UHI intensity.
The proposed calibration methods aim to better estimate parameters The authors hereby acknowledge the support of the Abu Dhabi
that are uncertain but have influence on building energy performance. Municipality, and Mr. Khaled Aljunadi specifically, for facilitating ac-
Preferred ranges for each parameter are defined to guide the algorithm cess to the results of the energy audit of sector E3-02.
to reach an optimal or near-optimal solution with reasonable parameter
setting. Regarding the methods proposed, the UWG revealed a good References
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