Energy and Buildings 98 (2015) 119–124

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Energy and Buildings

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enbuild

On the impact of urban heat island and global warming on the power
demand and electricity consumption of buildings—A review
M. Santamouris a,b,∗ , C. Cartalis b , A. Synnefa b , D. Kolokotsa c
a
The Cyprus Institute, 20 Constantinou Kavafi Street 121, Nicosia, Cyprus, Greece
b
Physics Department, University of Athens, Athens, Greece
c
Technical University Crete, Crete, Greece

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Urban heat island and global warming increase significantly the ambient temperature. Higher tempera-
Available online 8 October 2014 tures have a serious impact on the electricity consumption of the building sector increasing considerably
the peak and the total electricity demand. The present paper aims to collect, analyze and present in a
Keywords: comparative way existing studies investigating the impact of ambient temperature increase on electric-
Urban heat island ity consumption. Analysis of eleven studies dealing with the impact of the ambient temperature on the
Global warming
peak electricity demand showed that for each degree of temperature increase, the increase of the peak
Electricity consumption
electricity load varies between 0.45% and 4.6%. This corresponds to an additional electricity penalty of
Overheating
about 21 (±10.4) W per degree of temperature increase and per person. In parallel, analysis of fifteen
studies examining the impact of ambient temperature on the total electricity consumption, showed that
the actual increase of the electricity demand per degree of temperature increase varies between 0.5% and
8.5%.
© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction pollutants like tropospheric ozone [9], deteriorate thermal comfort

Increase of the near surface ambient temperature in cities is very
well documented [1,2]. Urban overheating is the combined result
of the urban heat island developed mainly in cities with a posi-
tive thermal balance and of the global warming which affects the
urban climate as well. Although the impact of urban heat island is
very well studied, the specific impact of the global warming on the
urban climate is poorly understood [3]. Urban heat island studies
are available for almost all major cities in the world and the corre-
sponding urban heat island intensity is tabulated and reported by
many authors [4,5]. The reported intensity of the UHI phenomena
varies mainly as a function of the local topographical character-
istics, the synoptic weather conditions, the urban characteristics
like density, form and land use/cover, anthropogenic heat released,
materials used, view factor, etc while it is also highly influenced by
the characteristics of the selected rural station [6].
Urban warming has a serious impact on the energy consumption
of the urban buildings by increasing the energy and the elec-
tric power necessary for cooling needs [7,8]. In parallel, higher
ambient urban temperatures increase the concentration of certain
∗ Corresponding author. +00357 22208657.
E-mail address: msantam@phys.uoa.gr (M. Santamouris).
conditions in cities [10,11], exacerbate health and indoor envi-
ronmental problems[12,13] and result in a serious increase of the
global ecological footprint of the cities [14].
Weather variations have an important impact on the electric-
ity demand and the general electricity market [15]. Several studies
are carried out to examine the impact of various primary climatic
parameters such as humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, etc., on
the local electricity demand, while secondary climatic parameters
such as the heating and cooling degree days are also considered
[16,17]. In parallel, many economic, social and demographic indices
such as the local Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth rate,
the energy prices, the local manufacturing levels, etc., are also used
as input parameters to estimate the electricity demand [18,19].
Most of the studies have concluded that ambient temperature is
the parameter presenting the highest impact on the variation of
the electricity demand [16].
The relation between the daily electricity consumption and the
corresponding ambient temperature is not linear. It presents a high
seasonality whereas the curve of the electricity demand obtains its
peak value during the coldest period of winter in heating dominated
zones or during the warmest summer period in cooling domi-
nated zones. In winter, the relation between ambient temperature
and electricity demand is negative as higher ambient tempera-
tures decrease the need for heating. On the contrary, the relation is

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.052
0378-7788/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
120 M. Santamouris et al. / Energy and Buildings 98 (2015) 119–124

positive during the summer period where higher ambient temper-

atures increase the need for cooling. The respective curve between
the electricity demand and the ambient temperature is usually of
asymmetric U shape, where (a) the minimum consumption cor-
responds to the neutral climatic period when heating and cooling
are insignificant and (b) the energy demand is almost inelastic to
the temperature and (c) the maximum consumption corresponds
to the periods of the lower and/or higher ambient temperatures
depending on the local climate [20]. The threshold temperature
over which the electricity consumption starts to increase, known
as the inflection point of the response function, depends on the
difference between the indoor comfort temperatures and the ambi-
ent ones. It is a strong function of the thermal quality of the
building stock and of the indoor temperatures set for comfort.
In a general approach, it is assumed that the inflection point is
around 18.3 ◦ C; however analysis of specific data for 15 Euro-
pean countries showed that it is close to 14.7 ◦ C for the heating
dominated countries and 22.4 ◦ C for the cooling dominated zones
[21].
Increasing use of air conditioning as a result of temperature
increase and the improvement of the living standards had enforced
and made more pronounced the correlation between the electricity
demand and the outdoor ambient temperature above the thresh-
old levels. The problem seems to be more significant in cooling
dominated zones. In fact, a study examining the temperature elas-
ticity of the electricity demand for six countries with warm climate
(Australia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand, Venezuela), twenty
one countries with mild climate (Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Switzerland, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Portugal, South
Africa, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States), and four
countries with cold climate (Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden),
concluded that the temperature elasticity for the warm countries
is close to 1.7%, while for the mild and cold countries is 0.54% and
0.51%, respectively [22].
The aim of the present paper is to collect, analyze and present
in a comparative way most of the important studies aiming to
evaluate the impact of urban and global warming on electric-
ity demand. Two type of articles are considered and presented:
(a) those studying the impact of ambient temperature on the
peak electricity demand and (b) those dealing with the impact of
ambient temperature on the electricity consumption in a city or
state.
2. The impact of high ambient temperatures on electricity
demand
In order to manage the electricity consumption in an efficient
way and forecast future electricity needs induced mainly by the
urban overheating and global warming, utilities establish and use
response functions to estimate the additional electricity needs per
degree of temperature increase or the elasticity of the demand
regarding the ambient temperature (increase of the ambient tem-
perature by 1%). Response functions are mostly developed for the
total electricity demand in a place; in rare cases the specific func-
tions concerning the residential and commercial sectors are also
available. Existing literature reports either the response function
for the peak electricity demand or for the hourly, daily, monthly or
even annual electricity consumption. Table 1 summarizes the exist-
ing literature with respect to the impact of ambient overheating on
the peak electricity demand and electricity consumption. Twenty
nine studies are analyzed and reported: eleven studies deal with
the impact of ambient overheating on the peak electricity demand
and eighteen studies discuss the impact of urban warming on the
global electricity consumption.
Fig. 1. Increase of the peak electricity demand (%) per degree of ambient tempera-
ture rise.
2.1. Increase of the peak electricity demand
Increase of the peak electricity demand is a serious problem
for utilities as they are obliged to build additional power plants
to satisfy the demand, a fact which increases the cost of the elec-
tricity generation. Data on the impact of ambient overheating on
the peak electricity demand are available for Tokyo [23], Thailand
[24], Ontario East Canada [25], Los Angeles, Washington, Dallas,
Colorado Springs, Phoenix and Tuscon [26], Israel [27] and Pert of
Carolina USA [28]. Fig. 1 summarizes the main results of the above
studies. In particular, the base electrical load and its percentage rise
per degree of ambient temperature increase is given. In parallel, the
inflection point of the response functions i.e. the threshold temper-
ature over which the cooling demands starts to increase is reported
when known.
As shown, the rise of the peak electrical load per degree of ambi-
ent temperature increase, varies between 0.45% and 4.6%. The lower
values are observed for Tokyo and the higher for Thailand. The aver-
age increase rate between all considered cases is close to 2.65%
while the average increase of the electric load is 226 MW per degree
of temperature increase. The base electrical load of the reported
cases varied between 0.4 GW and almost 40 GW. Considering the
average population of the considered cases, it is estimated that the
average peak electricity penalty per person is close to 21 (±10.4) W
per degree of temperature increase. The threshold ambient tem-
perature over which the cooling demand starts to increase varied
between 13 ◦ C and 24 ◦ C, but for most of the cases was above 18 ◦ C.
The inflection point temperature was not correlated to the rate of
increase of the peak electricity demand.
As expected, the specific data indicates that the sensitivity of the
electricity network on the additional cooling demand triggered by
the ambient overheating depends highly on the degree of penetra-
tion of air conditioning in the considered area, the thermal quality
of the building stock, the considered indoor comfort temperatures
and the specific characteristics of the basic electricity load In the
event that, the reported data of the basic peak electricity demand
includes the consumption of the industrial sector, the sensitivity
to the temperature increase is considerably lower given that the
industrial production is not affected seriously by the temperature
 M. Santamouris et al. / Energy and Buildings 98 (2015) 119–124 121

Table 1
Findings of studies on the impact of ambient temperature increase on the peak electricity demand and the global electricity consumption.

No City/country Reference year Additional load per K Percentage increase of Threshold Reference
the base electricity inflection
load per degree of temperature (◦ C)
temperature increase

Increase of the peak electricity power demand—impact of 1 K increase of the ambient temperature
1 Tokyo Japan 2004 Peak additional demand of 180 MW/K 0.45% 22 ◦ C [23]
2 Thailand 2004 An 1 K temperature increase, rises the 4.6% the peak and 3.8% Not reported [24]
peak demand by 810 MW and 577 MW the average demand
the average demand, at 2004 levels
3 Ontario East 1991–1995 Above 23 ◦ C, the peak daily electricity 1.5% 23 ◦ C [25]
Canada demand increases by 233 MW/K
4 Los Angeles, USA 1986 Increase of the daily peak Electricity 3.3% 18.3 ◦ C [26]
demand by 545 MW/K
5 Washington DC, 1986 Increase of the daily peak electricity 3.6% [26]
USA demand by 181 MW/K or 3.6% of the
basic peak load
6 Dallas TX, Fort 1986 Increase of the daily peak electricity 3.1% 13 ◦ C [26]
Worth, USA demand by 454 MW/K
7 Colorado Springs, 1986 Increase of the daily peak electricity 1.8% 13 ◦ C [26]
CO, USA demand by 7.3 MW/K
8 Phoenix, AZ, USA 1986 Increase of the daily peak electricity 3.6% 24 ◦ C [26]
demand by 101 MW/K
◦
9 Tuscon AZ, USA 1986 Increase of the daily peak electricity 1.8% 21 C [26]
demand by 22 MW/K or 1.8% of the
basic peak load
10 Israel 1987–1988 Increase of the daily peak electricity 2.9–3.1% Not reported [27]
demand by 90 MW/K
11 Part of Carolina 1985–1991 Not reported 3.5–4% 18 ◦ C [28]
USA

Increase of the electricity consumption—impact of 1 K increase of the ambient temperature

1 Spain 1998 Daily additional electricity 1.6% 18 ◦ C [20]
consumption of 8 GW h/K
2 Athens, Greece 1993–2001 Increase of the daily energy 4.1% 22 ◦ C [29]
consumption of 1300 MW h/K,
3 New Orleans USA 1995 Increase of the daily average electrical 3% 22 ◦ C [30]
load by 15 MW h/K
◦
4 Hong Kong 2002 Monthly increase 111 GW h/K 4% 18 C [31]
5 Ohio, USA 1984–1993 Increase of the monthly consumption 7.5% 16 ◦ C [32]
by 30 kW h/person/K
6 California San 2004–2005 Increase of the daily consumption by 2.9% 15 ◦ C [28]
Hose, Sacramento 18,500 MW h/K
Pomona and Fresno
7 Greece 1993–2002 Increase of the daily electricity 1.1 to 1.9% 18.5 ◦ C [33]
consumption between 1.7 and
3 GW h/K
8 Chicago, USA 1993–2004 Increase of hourly load by 200 MW h/K Not Reported 15–17 ◦ C [34]
9 California, USA 1984–1993 Increase of the monthly consumption 7.7% 17 ◦ C [32]
by 27 kW h/K
10 Louisiana 1984–1993 Increase of the monthly consumption 8.5%. 20 ◦ C [32]
by 40 kW h/person/K
◦
11 Maryland, USA 1989–2001 Increase of the monthly electricity 8.5% 15.6 C for [35]
consumption by 22 kW h/p/K for the residential and
residential sector 11.7 ◦ C for
commercial
12 Massachusetts, 1977–2001 For residential buildings increase of the Around 6.5% for the 15.5 ◦ C for the [36]
USA monthly electricity demand equal to residential sector, and residential sector
9 kW h/person/K For commercial 3.0% for the and 12.8 ◦ C for the
buildings, increase of commercial sector commercial sector
12.7 kW h/person/K
13 Bangkok, Thailand 1986–2006 Increase of the average monthly 7.49% Not defined [19]
electricity consumption by
56.7 GW h/K
14 Singapore 2003–2012 Data on the hourly electricity demand 1–2.5% Varies during the [37]
day.
15 Netherlands 1970–2007 Data on the daily electricity 0.5% Variable and below [38]
consumption 18 ◦ C
122 M. Santamouris et al. / Energy and Buildings 98 (2015) 119–124

Table 1 (Continued)

No City/country Reference year Additional load per K Percentage increase of Threshold Reference
the base electricity inflection
load per degree of temperature (◦ C)
temperature increase

Increase of the electricity consumption—impact of 1% increase of the ambient temperature

1 Mild Countries, 1978–2000 Not reported 0.54% Not reported [22]
Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, France,
Germany, Ireland,
Luxembourg,
Netherlands, New
Zealand,
Switzerland,
Greece, Hungary,
Italy, Japan, Korea,
Portugal, South
Africa, Spain,
Turkey, United
Kingdom, United
States
2 Hot Countries, 1978–2000 Increase of the annual electricity 1.7% Not reported [22]
Australia, India, demand by 1.659%
Indonesia, Mexico,
Thailand,
Venezuela.
3 Cold Countries 1978–2000 Decrease of the annual demand by 0.51% Not reported [22]
Canada, Finland, 0.508%
Norway, Sweden

increase. On the contrary, when the basic peak electricity load
reflects mainly the consumption of the residential sector as well
as the temperature depended commercial sector, the sensitivity to
any temperature increase is quite high.
2.2. Increase of the global electricity consumption
Increased electricity consumption for cooling, induce consid-
erable stress to low income consumers, the vulnerable population
and also the electricity infrastructures and networks. Concerning
the increase of the global electricity consumption per degree of
temperature rise, studies are available for fifteen cities, states
or countries. In particular, Bangkok, Thailand [19], Spain [20],
California, USA and part of the state [28], Athens, Greece [29], New
Orleans, USA [30], Hong Kong [31,32], Ohio, USA [33], Louisiana,
USA, Greece [34], Chicago, USA [35] Maryland, USA [36], Mas-
sachusetts, USA [37], Singapore [38] and The Netherlands [39].
Studies refer to the specific impact of temperature rise on the
hourly, daily and monthly electricity demand.
In terms of the increase of the electricity demand in countries,
it is reported that in Spain the increase of the daily electric-
ity demand caused by one degree temperature rise is close to
8 GW h/day which is equivalent to the 1.6% of the basic daily
consumption. The threshold temperature under which electricity
consumption for cooling starts to increase is close to 18 ◦ C [20]. In
Greece, the corresponding increase of the daily electricity demand
is close to 1.1% [34]. However, if a similar increase is also applied
in two previous days then the demand increases by 1.9%, whereas

Fig. 2. Increase of the electricity demand (%) per degree of ambient temperature rise for various countries.
 M. Santamouris et al. / Energy and Buildings 98 (2015) 119–124
the threshold temperature is around 18.5 ◦ C. In the Netherlands,
the daily electricity demand increases by about 0, 5% during the
summer months, and for threshold temperatures below 18 ◦ C
[39]. In Singapore the hourly temperature elasticity levels varies
between 0.3 and 0.8% [38]. Given the actual temperatures in the
country, this is translated to an increase of about 1–2.5% of the
hourly consumption per degree of temperature rise. In Hong
Kong, it is estimated that the increase of the monthly electricity
consumption is 111 GW h per degree of temperature rise, or 4% of
the basic load, whereas the threshold temperature is 18 ◦ C [31].
Data on the additional electricity consumption triggered by
the ambient overheating is available for various States in USA. In
particular, in part of the State of California including San Hose,
Sacramento, Pomona and Fresno the increase of the daily electricity
consumption is estimated around 2.9% per degree of temperature
rise, (DTR) for temperatures above 15 ◦ C [33]. For the whole area
of California, the monthly electricity demand increases by 7.7%
per degree of temperature rise above 17 ◦ C, and the correspond-
ing energy penalty is estimated around 27 kW h per person [28]. In
a similar way, the corresponding increase of the monthly electric-
ity consumption for Ohio, Louisiana and Maryland USA, are 7.5%,
8.5% and 8.5%, respectively, and the energy penalty is close to 30,
40 and 22 kW h/person [33]. The threshold temperatures are 16 ◦ C
for Ohio, 20 ◦ C for Louisiana and 15.6 ◦ C for the residential sector
and 11.7 ◦ C for the commercial sector in Maryland. Finally, for Mas-
sachusetts, it is estimated that the monthly residential electricity
demand increases in a rate close to 6.5% per degree of temperature
rise above 15.5 ◦ C resulting in a penalty of 9 kW h/person [37]. For
the commercial sector the corresponding rate of increase is close
to 3% per DTR for temperatures above 12.8 ◦ C; this results in an
additional demand of 12.7 kW h/person and month [37].
Information on the increase of the electricity demand per degree
of temperature rise is available for several cities in the world.
In New Orland, USA, it is reported that the daily electricity load
increases to about 3% per DTR and for threshold temperatures
between 20 and 25 ◦ C [30]. In Bangkok Thailand the corresponding
increase is quite high and close to 7.5% per degree of temperature
rise [19]. In Athens, the increase is calculated close to 4.1% per DTR
for temperatures above 22 ◦ C [29]. Finally, in Chicago USA, the esti-
mated increase of the hourly load is close to 200 MW h per degree
of temperature rise above 15 to 17 ◦ C [35].
Fig. 2 presents in a comparative way the percentage increase
of the electricity demand per degree of temperature rise for all
the above studies. The hourly, daily or monthly electricity penalty
varies between 0.5% and 8.5% with an average value close to 4.6%.
Higher temperature elasticity are reported for some USA states
because of the very high penetration and use of air conditioning
in the respective areas. The threshold temperatures under which
the electricity demand starts to increase varies in average between
11.7 ◦ C and 22 ◦ C. Higher threshold temperatures are observed in
warm zones dominated by the cooling energy demand.
3. Conclusions
Global warming and urban heat island increase the ambient
temperature and intensify the energy consumption for cooling pur-
poses of buildings and other structures. At the same time, in heating
dominated climates, a rise of the ambient temperature may offer
beneficial and positive energy results in terms of restricting cooling
needs.
The major impact of ambient temperature rise is related to the
possible increase of the peak electricity demand that obliges power
utilities to construct additional power plants and probably increase
the cost of electricity supply. In addition the potential increase
123
of the electricity energy consumption place under stress both the
consumers and the electricity networks.
Based on the results of fifteen studies examining the impact of
ambient temperature on the total electricity consumption, it is evi-
dent that the energy penalty of ambient overheating is quite high
and depends mainly on the characteristics of the building stock, the
climate zone, the urban form and the type of the provided energy
services. The potential increase of the electricity demand per degree
of temperature rise varies between 0.5% and 8.5%. The threshold
ambient temperature over which the electricity consumption starts
to increase is for most of the cases around 18 ◦ C, however it may be
much lower and around to 12 ◦ C, or considerably higher, 23 ◦ C.
The potential increase of the peak electricity demand triggered
by the ambient warming is also high. Existing studies show that the
peak electricity demand increases from 0.45% to 4.6% per degree of
ambient temperature rise. This corresponds to a penalty of about
21 (±10.4) W per degree of temperature rise per person.
In order to reduce the specific impact of urban heat island and
global overheating on electricity consumption, buildings and urban
structures have to be adapted to the specific climatic conditions.
The development of low energy or close to zero energy buildings
may reduce significantly the energy needs and thus the result-
ing stress to the utilities and the consumers [39]. In parallel, the
development and use of advanced urban adaptation and mitiga-
tion techniques and technologies with the potential to decrease
the ambient temperatures in cities, may also reduce considerably
urban temperatures [40,41]. The mix of the urban adaptation and
mitigation techniques and technologies needs to be differentiated
per urban area as it depends on the inflection point of the urban
area concerned.
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