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The Great Britain Exit - Part2
The Great Britain Exit - Part2
Following the British exit on 31 January 2020 the UK entered a Transition Period
for the rest of 2020. Trade, travel and freedom of movement remain largely
unchanged during this period.[185]
The Withdrawal Agreement still applies after this date.[186] This agreement
provides free access of goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland,
provided checks are made to goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the
UK. The British Government attempted to back out of this commitment[187] by passing
the Internal Market Bill: domestic legislation in the British Parliament. In
September, Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis said:
I would say to my hon. Friend that yes, this does break international law in a
very specific and limited way.[188]
During the transition period, David Frost and Michel Barnier continued to negotiate
a permanent trade agreement.[191] On 24 December 2020 both parties announced that a
deal had been reached.[192] The deal was passed by both houses of the British
parliament on 30 December and given Royal Assent in the early hours of the next
day. In the House of Commons, the governing Conservatives and main opposition
Labour voted in favour of the agreement whilst all other opposition parties voted
against it.[193] The transition period concluded under its terms the following
evening.[194] After the UK said it would unilaterally extend a grace period
limiting checks on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, the European
Parliament postponed setting a date to ratify the agreement.[195] The vote was
later scheduled for 27 April when it passed with an overwhelming majority of votes.
[196][197]
There was a customs transitional arrangement in place until 1 July 2021. During
this time period, traders importing standard goods from the EU to the UK could
defer submitting their customs declarations and paying import duties to HMRC for up
to six months. This arrangement simplified and avoided most import controls during
the early months of the new situation and was designed to facilitate inward trade
during the COVID-19 health crisis and to avoid major disruptions in domestic supply
chains in the short term.[198] Following reports that the border infrastructure was
not ready, the UK government further postponed import checks from the EU to the UK
until the end of the year in order to avoid supply issues during the ongoing Covid
crisis.[199] This was again followed by another delay of import controls, in a
situation of truck driver shortages; the controls are scheduled to be phased in
during 2022.[200]
Both pro- and anti-EU views had majority support at different times from 1977 to
2015.[44] In the EC membership referendum of 1975, two-thirds of British voters
favoured continued EC membership. Over the decades of UK-EU membership,
Euroscepticism existed on both the left and right of British politics.[45][46][47]
In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron initially rejected calls for a referendum on
the UK's EU membership,[49] but then suggested the possibility of a future
referendum to endorse his proposed renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the
rest of the EU.[50] According to the BBC, "The prime minister acknowledged the need
to ensure the UK's [renegotiated] position within the [EU] had 'the full-hearted
support of the British people' but they needed to show 'tactical and strategic
patience'."[51] On 23 January 2013, under pressure from many of his MPs and from
the rise of UKIP, Cameron promised in his Bloomberg speech that a Conservative
government would hold an in-or-out referendum on EU membership before the end of
2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in the 7 May 2015 general election.[52]
This was included in the Conservative Party manifesto for the election.[53][54]
The Conservative Party won the election with a majority. Soon afterwards, the
European Union Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into Parliament to enable the
referendum. Cameron favoured remaining in a reformed EU, and sought to renegotiate
on four key points: protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries,
reduction of "red tape", exempting Britain from "ever-closer union", and
restricting immigration from the rest of the EU.[55]
The outcome of the renegotiations was revealed in February 2016. Some limits to in-
work benefits for new EU immigrants were agreed, but before they could be applied,
a member state such as the UK would have to get permission from the European
Commission and then from the European Council, which is composed of the heads of
government of every member state.[57]
After the original wording for the referendum question was challenged,[60] the
government agreed to change the official referendum question to "Should the United
Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Referendum result
Main article: Results of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership
referendum
In the referendum 51.89% voted in favour of leaving the EU (Leave), and 48.11%
voted in favour of remaining a member of the EU (Remain).[61][62] After this
result, Cameron resigned on 13 July 2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister
after a leadership contest. A petition calling for a second referendum attracted
more than four million signatures,[63][64] but was rejected by the government on 9
July.[65]
2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum Choice Votes %
Leave the European Union 17,410,742 51.89
Remain a member of the European Union 16,141,241 48.11
Valid votes 33,551,983 99.92
Invalid or blank votes 25,359 0.08
Total votes 33,577,342 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 46,500,001 72.21
Source: Electoral Commission[66]
National referendum results (excluding invalid votes)
Leave
17,410,742 (51.9%) Remain
16,141,241 (48.1%)
▲
50%
Results by UK voting region (left) and by council district/unitary authority (GB) &
UK Parliament constituency (NI) (right)
Leave
Remain
Region Electorate Voter turnout,
of eligible Votes Proportion of votes Invalid votes
Remain Leave Remain Leave
East Midlands 3,384,299 74.2% 1,033,036 1,475,479 41.18%
58.82% 1,981
East of England 4,398,796 75.7% 1,448,616 1,880,367 43.52%
56.48% 2,329
Greater London 5,424,768 69.7% 2,263,519 1,513,232 59.93%
40.07% 4,453
North East England 1,934,341 69.3% 562,595 778,103 41.96%
58.04% 689
North West England 5,241,568 70.0% 1,699,020 1,966,925 46.35%
53.65% 2,682
Northern Ireland 1,260,955 62.7% 440,707 349,442 55.78%
44.22% 374
Scotland 3,987,112 67.2% 1,661,191 1,018,322 62.00% 38.00%
1,666
South East England 6,465,404 76.8% 2,391,718 2,567,965 48.22%
51.78% 3,427
South West England (inc Gibraltar) 4,138,134 76.7% 1,503,019
1,669,711 47.37% 52.63% 2,179
Wales 2,270,272 71.7% 772,347 854,572 47.47% 52.53%
1,135
West Midlands 4,116,572 72.0% 1,207,175 1,755,687 40.74%
59.26% 2,507
Yorkshire and the Humber 3,877,780 70.7% 1,158,298 1,580,937
42.29% 57.71% 1,937
Voter demographics and trends
Further information: Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit
A 2017 study published in the journal Economic Policy showed that the Leave vote
tended to be greater in areas which had lower incomes and high unemployment, a
strong tradition of manufacturing employment, and in which the population had fewer
qualifications. It also tended to be greater where there was a large flow of
Eastern European migrants (mainly low-skilled workers) into areas with a large
share of native low-skilled workers.[67] Those in lower social grades (especially
the working class) were more likely to vote Leave, while those in higher social
grades (especially the upper middle class) more likely to vote Remain.[68][69][70]
Studies found that the Leave vote tended to be higher in areas affected by economic
decline,[71] high rates of suicides and drug-related deaths,[72] and austerity
reforms introduced in 2010.[73]
Studies suggest that older people were more likely to vote Leave, and younger
people more likely to vote Remain.[74] According to Thomas Sampson, an economist at
the London School of Economics, "Older and less-educated voters were more likely to
vote 'leave' [...] A majority of white voters wanted to leave, but only 33% of
Asian voters and 27% of black voters chose leave. [...] Leaving the European Union
received support from across the political spectrum [...] Voting to leave the
European Union was strongly associated with holding socially conservative political
beliefs, opposing cosmopolitanism, and thinking life in Britain is getting
worse."[75]
Polling conducted by YouGov supported these conclusions, showing that factors such
as age, political party affiliation, education, and household income were the
primary factors indicating how people would vote. For example, Conservative Party
voters were 61% likely to vote leave, compared to Labour Party voters, who were 35%
likely to vote leave. Age was one of the biggest factors affecting whether someone
would vote leave, with 64% of people over the age of 65 likely to vote leave,
whereas 18–24-year-olds were only 29% likely to vote leave. Education was another
factor indicating voting likelihood: people with a GCSE or lower level of education
were 70% likely to vote leave, whereas university graduates were only 32% likely to
vote leave. Household income was another important factor, with households earning
less than £20,000 62% likely to vote leave, compared to households earning £60,000
or more, which were only 35% likely to vote leave.[76]
There were major variations in geographic support for each side. Scotland and
Northern Ireland both returned majorities for remain, although these had a
relatively small impact on the overall result as England has a much larger
population. There were also significant regional differences within England, with
most of London returning a majority remain vote, alongside urban centres in
northern England such as Manchester and Liverpool, which returned remain majorities
of 60% and 58% respectively. Opposite trends appeared in industrial and post-
industrial areas of Northern England, with areas such as North Lincolnshire and
South Tyneside both heavily supporting leave.[77]
Opinion polls found that Leave voters believed leaving the EU was "more likely to
bring about a better immigration system, improved border controls, a fairer welfare
system, better quality of life, and the ability to control our own laws", while
Remain voters believed EU membership "would be better for the economy,
international investment, and the UK's influence in the world." Polls found that
the main reasons people voted Leave were "the principle that decisions about the UK
should be taken in the UK", and that leaving "offered the best chance for the UK to
regain control over immigration and its own borders." The main reason people voted
Remain was that "the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came
to things like the economy, jobs and prices."[78]
Post-referendum investigations
See also: European Union membership referendum § Investigations into campaigns, and
Allegations of unlawful campaigning in the 2016 EU referendum
In November 2017, the Electoral Commission launched a probe into claims that Russia
had attempted to sway public opinion over the referendum using social media
platforms such as Twitter and Facebook.[84]
In February 2019, the parliamentary Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee
called for an inquiry into "foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter
manipulation, and the sharing of data" in the Brexit vote.[85]
The 2015 Referendum Act did not expressly require Article 50 to be invoked,[90] but
prior to the referendum, the British government said it would respect the result.
[91] When Cameron resigned following the referendum, he said that it would be for
the incoming prime minister to invoke Article 50.[92][93] The new prime minister,
Theresa May, said she would wait until 2017 to invoke the article, in order to
prepare for the negotiations.[94] In October 2016, she said Britain would trigger
Article 50 in March 2017,[95] and in December she gained the support of MP's for
her timetable.[96]
In January 2017, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom ruled in the Miller case
that government could only invoke Article 50 if authorised by an act of parliament
to do so.[97] The government subsequently introduced a bill for that purpose, and
it was passed into law on 16 March as the European Union (Notification of
Withdrawal) Act 2017.[98] On 29 March, Theresa May triggered Article 50 when Tim
Barrow, the British ambassador to the EU, delivered the invocation letter to
European Council President Donald Tusk. This made 29 March 2019 the expected date
that UK would leave EU.[99][100]
2017 UK general election
See also: 2017 United Kingdom general election
A map presenting the results of the 2017 United Kingdom general election, by party
of the MP elected from each constituency, with Conservatives in blue, Labour in
red, and SNP in yellow
In April 2017, Theresa May called a snap general election, held on 8 June, in an
attempt to "strengthen [her] hand" in the negotiations;[101] The Conservative
Party, Labour and UKIP made manifesto pledges to implement the referendum, the
Labour manifesto differing in its approach to Brexit negotiations, such as
unilaterally offering permanent residence to EU immigrants.[102][103][104] The
Liberal Democrat Party and the Green Party manifestos proposed a policy of
remaining in the EU via a second referendum.[105][106][107] The Scottish National
Party (SNP) manifesto proposed a policy of waiting for the outcome of the Brexit
negotiations and then holding a referendum on Scottish independence.[108][109]
On 26 June 2017, Conservatives and the DUP reached a confidence and supply
agreement whereby the DUP would back the Conservatives in key votes in the House of
Commons over the course of the parliament. The agreement included additional
funding of £1 billion for Northern Ireland, highlighted mutual support for Brexit
and national security, expressed commitment to the Good Friday Agreement, and
indicated that policies such as the state pension triple lock and Winter Fuel
Payments would be maintained.[111][112]
UK–EU negotiations in 2017 and 2018
Main article: Brexit negotiations
Prior to the negotiations, May said that the British government would not seek
permanent single market membership, would end ECJ jurisdiction, seek a new trade
agreement, end free movement of people and maintain the Common Travel Area with
Ireland.[113] The EU had adopted its negotiating directives in May,[114] and
appointed Michel Barnier as Chief Negotiator.[115] The EU wished to perform the
negotiations in two phases: first the UK would agree to a financial commitment and
to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, and then negotiations on a future
relationship could begin.[116] In the first phase, the member states would demand
that the UK pay a "divorce bill", initially estimated as amounting to £52 billion.
[117] EU negotiators said that an agreement must be reached between UK and the EU
by October 2018.[118]
In March 2018, a 21-month transition period and the terms for it were provisionally
agreed.[125] In June 2018, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that there had been
little progress on the Irish border question—on which the EU proposed a backstop,
to come into effect if no overall trade deal had been reached by the end of the
transition period—and that it was unlikely that there would be a solution before
October, when the whole deal was to be agreed.[126] In July 2018, the British
government published the Chequers plan, containing its aims for the future
relationship that was to be determined in the negotiations. The plan sought to keep
British access to the single market for goods, but not necessarily for services,
while allowing for an independent trade policy.[127] The plan caused cabinet
resignations, including those of Brexit Secretary David Davis[128] and Foreign
Secretary Boris Johnson.[129]
May's agreement and failed ratification
Main articles: Brexit withdrawal agreement and Parliamentary votes on Brexit
Wikisource has original text related to this article:
2018 Draft withdrawal agreement
On 10 December 2018, the Prime Minister postponed the vote in the House of Commons
on her Brexit deal. This came minutes after the Prime Minister's Office confirmed
the vote would be going ahead.[136] Faced with the prospect of a defeat in the
House of Commons, this option gave May more time to negotiate with Conservative
backbenchers and the EU, even though they had ruled out further discussions.[137]
The decision was met with calls from many Welsh Labour MPs for a motion of no
confidence in the Government.[138]
Also on 10 December 2018, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that the UK
could unilaterally revoke its notification of withdrawal, as long as it was still a
member and had not agreed a withdrawal agreement. The decision to do so should be
"unequivocal and unconditional" and "follow a democratic process".[139] If the
British revoked their notification, they would remain a member of the EU under
their current membership terms. The case was launched by Scottish politicians and
referred to the ECJ by the Scottish Court of Session.[140]
On 15 January 2019, the House of Commons voted 432 to 202 against the deal, which
was the largest majority ever against a United Kingdom government.[145][146] Soon
after, a motion of no confidence in Her Majesty's Government was tabled by the
opposition,[147] which was rejected by 325 votes to 306.[148]
On 24 February, Prime Minister May proposed that the next vote on the withdrawal
agreement would be on 12 March 2019, 17 days away from the Brexit date.[149] On 12
March, the proposal was defeated by 391 votes to 242—a loss by 149 votes, down from
230 from when the deal had been proposed in January.[150]
On 18 March 2019, the Speaker informed the House of Commons that a third meaningful
vote could be held only on a motion that was significantly different from the
previous one, citing parliamentary precedents going back to 1604.[151]
The Withdrawal Agreement was brought back to the House without the attached
understandings on 29 March.[152] The Government's motion of support for the
Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by 344 votes to 286—a loss by 58 votes, down from
149 when the deal had been proposed on 12 March.[153]
Article 50 extensions and Johnson's agreement
On 20 March 2019, the Prime Minister wrote to European Council President Tusk
requesting that Brexit be postponed until 30 June 2019.[154] On 21 March 2019, May
presented her case to a European Council summit meeting in Brussels. After May left
the meeting, a discussion amongst the remaining EU leaders resulted in the
rejection of 30 June date and offered instead a choice of two new alternative
Brexit dates. On 22 March 2019, the extension options were agreed between the
British government and the European Council.[155] The first alternative offered was
that if MPs rejected May's deal in the next week, Brexit would be due to occur by
12 April 2019, with, or without, a deal—or alternatively another extension be asked
for and a commitment to participate in the 2019 European Parliament elections
given. The second alternative offered was that if MPs approved May's deal, Brexit
would be due to occur on 22 May 2019. The later date was the day before the start
of European Parliament elections.[156] After the government deemed unwarranted the
concerns over the legality of the proposed change (because it contained two
possible exit dates) the previous day,[157] on 27 March 2019 both the Lords
(without a vote)[158] and the Commons (by 441 to 105) approved the statutory
instrument changing the exit date to 22 May 2019 if a withdrawal deal is approved,
or 12 April 2019 if it is not.[159] The amendment was then signed into law at 12:40
p.m. the next day.[155]
Following the failure of the British Parliament to approve the Withdrawal Agreement
by 29 March, the UK was required to leave the EU on 12 April 2019. On 10 April
2019, late-night talks in Brussels resulted in a further extension, to 31 October
2019; Theresa May had again requested an extension only until 30 June. Under the
terms of this new extension, if the Withdrawal Agreement were to be passed before
October, Brexit would occur on the first day of the subsequent month. The UK would
then be obligated to hold European Parliament elections in May or leave the EU on 1
June without a deal.[160][161]
The British Parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019,
which received Royal Assent on 9 September 2019, obliging the Prime Minister to
seek a third extension if no agreement has been reached at the next European
Council meeting in October 2019.[168] In order for such an extension to be granted
if it is requested by the Prime Minister, it would be necessary for there to be
unanimous agreement by all other heads of EU governments.[169] On 28 October 2019,
the third extension was agreed to by the EU, with a new withdrawal deadline of 31
January 2020.[170] 'Exit day' in British law was then amended to this new date by
statutory instrument on 30 October 2019.[171]
2019 UK general election
See also: 2019 United Kingdom general election
A map presenting the results of the 2019 United Kingdom general election, by party
of the MP elected from each constituency
After Johnson was unable to induce Parliament to approve a revised version of the
withdrawal agreement by the end of October, he chose to call for a snap election.
Due to the fact three motions for an early general election under the Fixed-term
Parliaments Act 2011 failed to achieve the necessary two-thirds super majority for
it to pass so instead, in order to circumvent the existing law, the Government
introduced a "election bill" which only needed a simple majority of MPs to vote in
favour into the House of Commons which was passed by 438–20, setting the election
date for Thursday 12 December.[172] Opinion polls up to polling day showed a firm
lead for the Conservatives against Labour throughout the campaign.[173]
In the run-up to the general election on 12 December 2019 the Conservative Party
pledged to leave the EU with the withdrawal agreement negotiated in October 2019.
Labour promised to renegotiate aforementioned deal and hold a referendum, letting
voters choose between the renegotiated deal and remain. The Liberal Democrats vowed
to revoke Article 50, while the SNP intended to hold a second referendum, however,
revoking Article 50 if the alternative was a no-deal exit. The DUP supported Brexit
but would seek to change parts related to Northern Ireland it was dissatisfied
with. Plaid Cymru and the Green Party backed a second referendum, believing the UK
should stay in the EU. The Brexit Party was the only major party running for
election which wanted the UK to leave the EU without a deal.[174]
The election produced a decisive result for Boris Johnson with the Conservatives
winning 365 seats (gaining 47 seats) and an overall majority of 80 seats with
Labour suffering their worst election defeat since 1935 after losing 60 seats to
leave them with 202 seats and only a single seat in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats
won just 11 seats with their leader Jo Swinson losing her own seat. The Scottish
National Party won 48 seats after gaining 14 seats in Scotland.
The result broke the deadlock in the UK Parliament and ended the possibility of a
referendum being held on the withdrawal agreement and ensured that the United
Kingdom would leave the European Union on 31 January 2020.
Ratification and departure
Foreign and Commonwealth Office illuminated in the colours of the Union Jack on 31
January 2020