China's birthrate just hit another

record low. But the worst is yet to

come

Analysis by Nectar Gan and Steve George, CNN

Updated 3:04 AM EST, Wed December 01, 2021
Editor's Note: (A version of this story appeared in CNN's Meanwhile in China
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Hong Kong(CNN)China's birthrate in 2020 has hit another

record low -- and there's no indication things are about to pick

up anytime soon.
There were only 8.5 births per 1,000 people in China last year,

according to the latest yearbook released by the country's

National Bureau of Statistics in late November.

That's the lowest not only since yearbook records began in

1978 -- but also since the founding of Communist China in

1949, according to official data.

The birthrate, which has now fallen to single digits, is the

latest troubling sign of China's worsening population crisis, as

the country of 1.4 billion people begins to lose its youthful

edge.

The country's once-a-decade national census revealed in May

that just 12 million babies were born last year -- an 18% plunge

from 14.65 million in 2019.

Demographers have long predicted China will begin to

experience a population decline into the decades ahead,

however, some experts now worry it may come much sooner

than expected.

"From our preliminary forecast based on provisional data, (in

2021) it's going to be very likely to be around or even under 10

million births," said James Liang, a research professor of

economics at Peking University in Beijing.

"And of course, with that number, the biggest news will be

China is probably in a population decline."

Liang is not the only expert with that concern. He Yafu, an

independent demographer in Guangzhou, wrote on social

media last month that "China's population is very likely to

enter negative growth in 2021."

In May, following the results of the national census, He

predicted China's population would start shrinking in 2022.

"But now, I think my forecast from half year ago was too

optimistic," he wrote.

China wants families to have three children. But many women aren't
convinced
Based on the most recent data published by local governments

in China, He predicts the number of newborn babies to be

between 9.5 million and 10.5 million this year. Given there has

been an average of about 10 million deaths annually in recent

years, "if the number of newborns is near the lower limit of the

prediction, that means the population is bound to register

negative growth," He wrote.

Dwindling birthrate is a problem faced by many countries, but

in China, the decline has been particularly steep due to its

decades-long one-child policy.

To arrest the falling birthrate, the Chinese government

announced in 2015 that it would allow married couples to have

two children. But after a brief uptick in 2016, the national

birthrate has been falling year on year, prompting authorities

to loosen the policy this year even further to three children --

though few experts believe the three-child policy will be a

game changer.

And compared with other industrialized nations with similar

fertility rates, China -- despite economic growth -- still trails far

behind in per capita GDP and has arelatively weak social

welfare system.

China's fertility rate stood at just 1.3 last year -- among the

lowest in the world and even lower than 1.34 in Japan. But

China's GDP per capita is only one fourth of Japan's. The few

other countries with a lower fertility rate include Singapore

(1.1) and South Korea (0.84).

"Of course, the bad news to China is this is not the end, and

that China will continue to gravitate toward the lowest of the

spectrum -- so it'll be more like Singapore and South Korea

very soon," Liang said.

"If you look at big cities in China, like Shanghai and Beijing,

their fertility rate is already the lowest in the world -- at about

0.7."

The rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce could

severely distress China's economic and social stability.

"It'll hurt China financially, because you need to support a lot

more old people with fewer young people," Liang said.

"(But) the biggest worry is China will lose its scale advantage,

being the biggest market for almost everything. It has a very

efficient supply chain because of its scale. And the innovation

capacity may not be as vibrant when you have only half the

young people today."

Chinese millennials aren't getting married, and the government is

worried

An aging society also puts tremendous pressure on the

country's younger generation, which is already increasingly

postponing marriage -- or even eschewing it entirely. Last

year, marriage registrations declined for the seventh

consecutive year to 8.1 million, a crushing 40% drop from a

peak in 2013, according to the National Bureau of Statistics

yearbook.
For decades, local governments have forced millions of women

to abort pregnancies deemed illegal by the state under the

one-child policy. Now, they are churning out a flurry of

propaganda slogans and policies to encourage couples to

have more children. The common incentives include cash

handouts, real estate subsidies and extension of maternity

leave.

This year, more than 20 provincial or regional governments

have amended their family planning laws, including extending

maternity leaves for women. For example, eastern Zhejiang

province offers 188 days of maternity leave for the third child;

and in northern Shaanxi province, female workers can enjoy a

total of 350 days paid leave for having a third child, according

to state media reports.

But the policies have failed to convince women, who worry

that they'll be further disadvantaged as companies seek to

avoid the extra financial burden.

"Women will be even more worried about their careers if they

take a longer maternity leave -- and if the maternity leave is

paid by the company," Liang said.

At the heart of the issue is the high cost of raising a child,

especially among the country's growing middle class. Parents

want their children to succeed, and are willing to invest as

much time and money as it costs.

While some cities have offered cash incentives, Liang said

relying on local governments alone is far from enough. Instead,

the central government should dedicate a certain percentage

of the country's GDP to provide financial subsidies to families,

either in the form of cash payment, tax incentives or other

social security benefits.

Chinese women were already discriminated in the workplace. A three-

child policy might make things worse

Another much-needed policy change is to increase daycare

centers for young children, Liang said. Currently, only 5% of

Chinese children under 3 years old use daycare services, and

only 20% of those services are run by the government,

according to Xinhua.

But there are also more deeply-rooted structural problems to

be addressed. China's high property prices and rising

education costs, especially in big cities, have frequently been

cited in surveys as the top factors preventing couples from

having more children.

Both sectors have been thrust into the spotlight this year, with

the debt crisis surrounding property giant Evergrande and the

Chinese government's sweeping crackdown on the private

tutoring industry.

While the government has never directly admitted it, its

crackdown on after-school classes -- which have placed huge

pressure on children and growing financial burden on parents

-- is widely perceived by the public as part of the broader effort

to boost the country's birthrate.

Liang said the measure is only "addressing the symptom," and

will be hard to enforce in the long run, as people can always

find ways to hire a private tutor.

"I think the long-term solution probably will be to change the

college entrance regime," he said, referring to the notoriously

tough and competitive exam that millions of Chinese students

take every year to get into universities, in the hope of securing

a good future.

Such interventionist measures are likely to be the first of

many. After years on the fence, the government is now keenly

aware of the severity of the problem -- and has showed ample

resolve to fix it.

Realistically, the most optimistic scenario for China is to have

a fertility level similar to that of Europe, at around 1.6 or 1.7,

Liang said. "But that's very hard. You're talking about spending

5% of GDP (to encourage childbirth), or fixing the housing

problem and the education problem," he said. "In fact, just

maintaining 1.3 is not easy."