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16 FOREIGN POLICY
FALL 1999 19
20 FOREIGN POLICY
Absolutely.Moreoftenthannot, recentfinancialcriseshavebeentrig-
geredby externalfinancialshocksthat are amplifiedby failedfixed
exchangerateregimes: Countries attemptto defendtheirexchangerates
bysellingoffmoreandmoreforeignreserves, promptingwidespread spec-
ulationof animminentcurrency devaluation,andleadingin turnto even
morecapitalflight.However,the rootcauseof thesecrisesis usuallya
weakbankingsystem.In manydevelopingcountries,undercapitalized
andbadlysupervised banksborrowed toomuchshort-term moneyabroad
andlentit to dubiousprojectsathome.Theysuffered fromcurrency mis-
matches(banksborrowed in dollarsandlentin localcurrency, convinced
thatexchangerateswouldstaystable)andmaturity mismatches (inThai-
for
land, instance, some banks were on
borrowing the30-daymarketand
lendingfor multiyear construction projects).Cronyismandcorruption
madetheseweakbankseven weakeras theymadeloansto veryrisky,
unworthy projectsownedbytheirshareholders andmanagers.
Foreignbanksalso beartheirshareof the blame.Convincedthat
governments wouldbailout insolventbanksin timesof crisis,interna-
tionallendersmadeextremelyriskyloanswithoutduediligence.They
wereencouraged by faultyinternationalbankingstandards (the "Basle
CapitalAccord")thatfavorshort-term ratherthanlong-termlending
bybanksanddo not discriminate effectivelybetweenassetsof different
risks.Fortunately,
a centralthemeof globalfinancialreformis improving
bankingstandards. is rapidlybeingmadeon thisfront.
Progress
We Need a New "Global FinancialArchitecture"
That dependson what you mean. The frequencyand severityof
recentfinancialcriseshave fueledcallsfor a radicalredesignof the
rulesof globalfinance.PresidentBill Clinton wants to "adaptthe
international
financialarchitecture
to the 21stcentury";Britishprime
ministerTonyBlairwantsa "newBrettonWoodsfora new millenni-
um."Countlessacademicsandpunditshavepublishedpapersandedi-
torialson how to revampthe system.Some want to scrapthe
InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF) altogether;otherswant to createa
global central bank;still others want a globalbankruptcycourt.
Sadly,most of these radicalideas are either ill-advisedor politically
unfeasible(or both). A "new architecture"is thereforehighly unlikely.
FALL 1999 21
FALL 1999 25
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