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MODULE TWO: TOPIC TWO

POPULATION DYNAMICS
Introduction
Population refers to the total number of people living in an area at a particular time. The
scientific study of human population is called demography. Demography deals with the
distribution of population over space and time. It uses statistical and scientific data
analysis of the population.
Definitions of key population concepts:
 Population census: the official counting of people in a particular country.
 Population dynamics: the ever-changing structure of population as a result of
factors such as birthrate, migration and death rate.
 Population structure: composition of population e.g. ratio of males to females or
proportion of the working to the non working population.
 Birth rate: number of children born alive per 1000 people in a given year.
 Death rate: number of deaths per 1000 people in a given year.
 Life expectancy: the number of years that a new-born child is expected to live
from birth.
 Fertility rate: the average number of live-births that a woman is capable of
producing during her reproductive period.
 Infant mortality rate: the number of children who die before the age of 12
months per 1000 live births.
 Child mortality rate: the number of children who die before the age 5 years per
1000 live births.
 De facto population: total number of people who are present in a country during
a census (includes visitors and foreigners but excludes citizens temporarily
outside the country).
 De Jure population: total number of people present in a country during a census
(de facto) plus all citizens outside the country during a census.
 Migration: movement of people from one area to another either permanently or
semi-permanently.
 Emigration: movement of people out of a particular area (out-migration).
 Immigration: movement of people into a particular area (in-migration).
 Natural increase rate: the difference between the birth and death rate in a similar
year.
 Population density: the average number of people per unit area.
 Overpopulation: when there are more people than the available resources can
support.
 Optimum population: when there is a balance between population and available
resources.
 Dependent population: people who are not economically independent i.e. those
who rely on the working population for basic needs.
 Sex ratio: proportion between number of males and females.
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Factors influencing fertility rate

Social factors:
 Religion: Some churches like Roman Catholic do not allow their members to use
artificial contraceptives such as pills and condoms as a result members are likely
to have many children.
 Level of Education: Uneducated people generally have little or no knowledge
about the use of contraceptives and family planning and as such they are likely to
have more children. On the other hand educated women have more knowledge
and therefore likely to have fewer children.
 Preference for a particular sex: Some families may want to have a certain
number of boys or girls. If they fail to have the preferred sex ratio they will
continue to bear children with the hope that they will achieve the desired number
of boys or girl and this often results in larger numbers of children
 Early childbearing: When women bear children at an early age they are more
likely to have many children by the time they reach menopause.
Economic factors:
 Country’s level of development: Developed countries can afford to provide their
people with enough contraceptives to prevent frequent and unwanted pregnancies
whereas poor countries cannot afford to provide their people with enough
resources to curb fertility rates. This results in high fertility rates for poor
countries and low rates for developed countries.
 Desire for wealth: Some families may decide to limit the numbers of their
children for economic reasons e.g. when a family wants to buy expensive items
they avoid having many children so that they cannot put pressure on their budgets.
 Economic returns or old age security: Some families want to have many
children so that when they retire or reach old age such children can support and
protect them.
Cultural Factors:
 Use of family labour: Traditional societies encouraged large families because
most of their economic well-being was based on availability of labour at family
level including child labour.
 Gender inequality: Traditionally the number of children a family desired was
decided by the husband only. In most cases men wanted to have many children as
they thought it symbolised their virility or sexual power.
 Polygamous marriages: This marriages encourages large fertilities as they
stimulate competition for number of children amongst the married women.

Factors contributing to rapid population growth

When the birth rate is higher than the death rate then the population increases. This
results in natural increase in population. If the death rate is higher than birth rate there
would be negative growth or natural decrease.
 Factors leading to high birth rates:
- early childbearing
- use of family or child labour
- lack of use of contraceptives
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- old age security

- lack of education on family planning
- desire for a particular sex
- religious beliefs against use of contraceptives
- population policy promoting population growth
 Factors leading to low death rates:
- improved quality of health services and facilities
- better nutrition and diet
- emergence of old age homes and allowances
- improved standards of hygiene
- improved supply of clean water.
 When immigration is greater than emigration i.e. when people migrate into a
particular area more than the ones leaving the area.

Effects of high population on the environment

The following are some of the negative effects of human growth on the environment:
 Shortage of land: Population growth results in too many people scrambling
for limited available lands which will result in rapid depletion and degradation
of resources.
 Urbanisation: Many people will move from rural to urban areas in search of
better living standards. As a result there is going to be overcrowding in towns
which will lead to problems such as traffic congestion, overuse of resources
and encroachment of industries into residential areas.
 Development of slums: When population increases beyond control there will
be shortage of housing which will force people to establish illegal settlements
called slums or squatter camps.
 Pollution: A high population will increase amount of waste in the
environment and this will give rise to various diseases such as cholera and
bilharzia.
 Overuse and extinction of resources: Increased population may lead to more
over-exploitation of resources in order to maintain the ever-growing
population.
 Rise in unemployment: A high population will increase the number of
unemployed people and thus increase the number of dependants who will
pressurise the working population’s budget.
 Shortage of basic amenities: A high population will put pressure on limited
schools, clinics and hospitals which may not be enough to satisfy the needs of
the high population.
 Land use conflicts: A high population may create conflicts over the use of
some resources. Due to shortage of land people may end up creating
settlements on agricultural land and thus creating conflicts with affected
farmers.
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Possible solutions to rapid population growth

 Promotion of family planning and use of contraceptives: There should be
enough education on the available family planning methods and their accessibility
to people in remote and rural areas should be increased.
 Legislation: The government can formulate some laws on maximum number of
children that a couple should have.
 Incentives for smaller families: Small-sized families should be given rewards so
as to discourage large families.
 Education: Educated women are likely to marry later and have fewer children
through wise planning and proper use of contraceptives.
 Development of rural areas: There is need to provide basic amenities such as
schools, hospitals, roads and telecommunication networks in rural areas so as to
reduce accelerated rural-urban migration.
 Emancipation of women’s rights (gender equality): Improved status of women
will make them take part in decision-making concerning family size unlike in the
past when that decision was taken by men only.

Impacts of HIV/AIDS on the population

AIDS is a disease that results from the impacts of the HIV virus on the body. At present
there is no cure for HIV/AIDS and the disease is virtually in every country in the world.
HIV/AIDS has the following negative impacts on the population:
 Increased death rate: HIV/AIDS has no cure and therefore many of its victims
end up dying.
 Reduces the workforce: The disease mostly kills people who are economically
active and thus reducing skilled personnel.
 Reduction in life expectancy: The most affected age group is between 18 and 45
and therefore death of such people results in decline in life expectancy.
 Pressure on government budget: Government spends a lot of money in buying
preventive medication such as ARV drugs as well expenditure on education and
awareness campaigns.
 Loss of breadwinners: Families may lose their only providers resulting in
increased poverty.
 Increase in dependent population: Death of important family members may
lead to increase in the number of orphans and destitutes who may also need
government support.
 Stigma and discrimination: Some people tend to have a negative attitude
towards victims of HIV/AIDS and end up discriminating them in family and
community activities.
Importance of population census
A population census is an official counting of people in a country at a given period of
time. A census is important for the following reasons:
 Enables identification of changes in the structure of population (e.g. birth rate,
death rate, life expectancy etc.) as well as causes for such changes
 Census data is needed for planning in various social and economic sectors
such as agriculture, health and education.
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 In elections census data helps in delimitation of parliamentary constituencies

and councillors’ wards.
 A census can be used to identify where various developments are mostly
needed. Usually such developments and services are mostly needed where
there are more people.

Significance of population and development planning

A country’s development is affected by population variables such as size, composition,
fertility rate, mortality rate, density and spatial distribution. Development plans are done
for the following reasons:
 For budgeting purposes: Government has to know how much money would be
required by each sector and each constituency. This is done by using census data
which will enable planners to determine the needs of each sector.
 For prioritising development funds: This enables the government to know
where resources are needed most.
Population Policy
This refers to government’s decisions and measures which are intended to change the
characteristics of population such as its size, growth rate, composition, spatial distribution
etc.
Importance of population policy
 A controlled population will ensure a balance between population and available
resources
 It would permit future population projections which are needed for development
planning and thus help in prioritising development.
 A population policy would lead to an increase/decrease in population because
relevant measures such as family planning, sterilisation, marriage age etc. will be
put in place.
 Relevant legislation will be put in place so as to help population regulation e.g.
one child per couple in China.
 It enables all stakeholders to work towards a common goal e.g. government,
private institutions and NGOs will put in place similar measures towards a
common goal of either increasing or decreasing population growth rate.
Population Policy in Botswana
Botswana’s population policy aims at maintaining a balance between population and
resources. The efforts by government to reduce population growth rate include the
following:
 Education: Government has introduced topics such as ‘Population’ and ‘Family
Planning’ in the school curriculum to sensitive people about the impacts of a high
population.
 Women Empowerment (gender-equality): The status of women has been improved
so that they cannot be seen only as childbearers. In recent years women have been
given more rights and job opportunities and this has reduced their fertility rates.
 Family planning and use of contraceptives: Through family planning education the
government tries to encourage teenagers to delay parenthood, men and women to use
contraceptives and parents to have only the number of children that they can support.
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 Improved health and family care: If clean water, sewage disposal, adequate
nutrition, medical services, maternity and infant care, and immunisation programmes
are introduced, fewer children will die in infancy. People will then see no need to
have many children as security.
 Decentralisation: To reduce population growth due to migration government has
made efforts to develop rural areas so that they match urban areas in terms of
infrastructure and services.
 Increased employment opportunity: Better employment opportunities will ensure
money for the people and will give them more security. As people become wealthier
they will see no reason in having many children as an economic investment.
 Maternity leave policy: According to government labour policies working women
can take three months maternity leave on full payment for a maximum of three
children only. Beyond three children women are not paid full salaries.

Population Migration
Migration is the movement of people from one place to another either permanently or
temporarily. Migration is one of the factors contributing to rapid population growth of
certain areas. There are two types of migration:
 International migration: This is the movement of people from one country to
another e.g. from Botswana to South Africa.
 Internal migration: Movement of people from one place to another within a
country. Internal migration can take the following forms: rural to rural, urban to
urban, rural to urban and urban to rural.
In any migration there are pull and push factors. Pull factors are favourable conditions
which attract people into a new area and usually lead to voluntary migration. Push
factors are unfavourable conditions which force people to a new area and usually lead to
involuntary migration.

Examples of pull factors:

 Employment opportunities: Urban areas are more developed than rural areas
and offer better chances of employment. There is a belief that there are better
paying jobs in urban areas.
 Educational facilities: Most of the secondary and tertiary schools are in urban
areas and therefore people migrate to urban areas in search of further education.
 Good medical facilities: Many referral hospitals in the country are found in
towns and cities e.g. Nyangabwe and Princess Marina Hospital in Francistown
and Gaborone respectively.
 ‘Bright light syndrome’: Some people are attracted by the unique lifestyle of
towns such as going to night clubs, parties and other recreational activities.
 Better infrastructure: Urban areas have good roads, telecommunication
networks and a variety of shops.
 Political stability: Peace attracts people from areas affected by wars.
 Good environmental conditions: good rainfalls and suitable temperatures.
Examples of push factors
 Poor infrastructure in rural areas: Rural areas are characterised by untarred
roads, limited and often too expensive shops, poor telecommunication networks
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etc. These factors often force people to migrate to urban areas for better facilities
and services.
 Unemployment: Rural areas offer the least employment opportunities as they are
not as developed as urban areas. In rural areas most people are engaged in small
scale agriculture which is unreliable because of poor rainfall.
 Unreliable and inadequate rainfall: Subsistence farming is the backbone of
many rural areas’ economies and therefore if rains are inadequate there are poor
harvests and finally starvation. The entire population suffers leading to
involuntary migration.
 Poor medical and educational facilities: Rural areas usually have little health
posts or clinics which may not provide all services leading to referral of some
patients to hospitals in urban areas.
 Fear of witchcraft: Traditional beliefs like witchcraft may drive some people
away from rural areas to urban areas with the hope that they cannot be reached by
witches.
 Political instabilities(wars): people may migrate from their home countries
because of wars and other political crises.
 Natural disasters: e.g. earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions,
outbreak of diseases etc, may force people to migrate to other areas that do not
experience such problems.

Effects of rural-urban migration on rural areas

Positive effects
 Remittances: Migrants employed in urban areas send part of their earnings to
relatives left behind in rural areas and this gives families in rural areas a chance to
buy basic needs.
 Transfer of skills, ideas and technology: Migrant workers bring in new skills
and technology that they have acquired in urban areas. This knowledge may be
used to stimulate development of rural areas.
 Reduced pressure on available resources: Those rural areas that are
overpopulated may benefit from rural-urban migration as their populations may
be reduced leaving behind a smaller population which can be supplied adequately
by the available resources.
 Investment of income in rural areas: Emigrants may invest their income in rural
areas e.g. by building shops, running public transports, entertainment centres,
opening saloons and other businesses.
 Reduced family sizes: The relocation of some family members to urban areas
may lead to reduction in the size of the family which may mean fewer mouths to
feed.

Negative impacts
 Brain-drain: Usually the most intelligent people migrate to towns leaving
rural areas with people who are less educated or intelligent enough to initiate
and implement important development projects.
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 Unequal distribution of resources: Migration will increase population in

urban areas and as a result development and resources will be channelled
towards the urban areas at the expense of rural areas.
 Family breakdown: One partner may leave for urban areas and lose contacts
with his or her spouse and this may result in extra marital affairs and finally
divorce.
 Decline in economic activities: As able-bodied men and women migrate to
towns for greener pastures much of the workload is left in the hands of the
young and very old. This reduces productivity especially agricultural
production as it is the backbone of rural economy.
 Age and gender imbalance: Rural migration tends to leave rural areas with a
population dominated by females as well as the young and old. This results in
change in division of labour.
 Depopulation: Accelerated rural-urban migration may result in the decline of
the population of rural areas. Reduction in population may also mean
reduction in labour force and market.
 Spread of diseases: Interaction between migrants and permanent rural
dwellers may result in spread of contagious diseases from urban areas to the
rural areas.
Effects of rural-urban migration on urban areas
Positive effects
 Increased market: As many people migrate to urban areas urban population
increases and this increases potential buyers especially for local.
 Increased labour force: An increased urban population will lead to plenty of
labour force with a variety of skills.
 Exchange of skills and technology: Interaction of people from different
cultural and ethnic backgrounds may facilitate exchange of skills and
technology.
Negative effects
 Shortage of amenities: More schools and hospitals will have to be built to
cater for the ever increasing urban population.
 Depletion of natural resources: Increased urban population will lead to
pressure and overuse of resources such as land, water and food. This will
result in depletion of such items.
 Rise in unemployment: Job opportunities are not rising as fast as urban
population growth rate. Failure to find employment may lead to illegal and
anti-social sources of income such as crime and prostitution.
 Establishment of squatter settlements: Shortage of housing or unaffordable
rent prices may force people to establish illegal squatter camps or slums.
 Pressure on government budget: Due to high population government will be
forced to provide more basic services such schools, hospitals, roads and
telecommunication networks to majority of people who live in urban areas.
 Multiplication of diseases: Many diseases and disease vectors multiply when
provision of water, sanitation, drainage, garbage collection and health is
inadequate. Other contagious diseases such as tuberculosis may be spread
quite easily due high population.
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 Land use conflicts: Rapid growth of urban areas may lead to loss of
agricultural land to housing or establishment of more industries. This will
create conflicts between the affected farmers and the Town Council or Land
Board.
Effects of international migration on the source country
Positive
 Reduced pressure on available resources as many people migrate.
 Gaining of foreign exchange as migrants send remittances in foreign
currencies.
 Returning migrants may bring in new skills and technology vital for
development.
 Investments by migrants in their home countries may stimulate economic
development.
Negative
 Brain drain; the country may lose skilled manpower to other countries.
 Loss of active population leading to reduction in productivity.
 Poor developments due to shortage of skilled personnel.
 Starvation due to mass exodus of breadwinners.
 Family breakdown as some members never return.
Effects of international migration on the receiving country
Positive
 Acquisition of skilled manpower such as engineers and doctors.
 Abundance of labour which is a benefit to local industries.
 Increased markets for local products.
 Exchange of cultural knowledge which facilitates exchange of skills and
technology.
Negative
 Loss of culture by immigrants as they interact with other cultures.
 Increased social ills as some of the immigrants may not find jobs e.g.
Zimbabweans in Botswana are blamed for escalating crime and prostitution.
 Spread of diseases from other countries e.g. HIV-AIDS, SARS and Ebola.
 Increased pressure on manmade and natural resources such housing and water.
 Competition for limited job opportunities with the local people

The trend of rural urban migration

This refers to the general tendency or direction of rural-urban migration. A large volume
of people migrate from rural to urban areas and the migration is selective in the following
ways:
 Sex: Both men and women migrate equally for different reasons; men mostly
go to towns for better jobs so that they can support their families in rural
areas.
 Age: Most of the people who migrate are aged between 15 and 45 (working
age). This age group is the core of the working population and they mostly
migrate to seek better employment opportunities.
 Destination: Most of the rural migrants target specific urban areas such as
mining towns like Selibe Phikwe, Jwaneng, Sowa Town and Francistown. In
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recent decades Gaborone as the administrative capital has attracted the largest
number of both local and international migrants.

The role of stakeholders in addressing problems resulting from rural-urban

migration
Youth
 Self employment: The youth can initiate their own businesses in rural areas
such as bakeries, saloons, poultry farming and tourism related projects
 Formation of cultural and entertainment clubs: Rural dwellers can form
clubs such as traditional dance troupes e.g. Ditholwana and drama clubs to
keep culture existing. Drama clubs can also educate people about the negative
consequences of migration through plays.
 Formation of sporting clubs: The youth can form different sporting clubs
such as football teams and organise tournaments. Such tournaments will help
to address the boredom that is normally associated with rural areas
 Utilisation of government schemes: The youth can take advantage of
financial institutions such as CEDA and Department of Culture and Youth to
start their own businesses in rural areas.
 Voluntary service: Unemployed youth can take part in voluntary services
such being members of Village Development Committees and Drought Relief
Projects. They can also volunteer to work for various NGOs that provide
services to rural people such as Red Cross.
 Active participation in decision making: The youth can actively take part in
major decision making in their communities so that they can advocate for the
improvement of their lifestyles.
Government
 Provision of clean water: A clean and reliable supply of water in rural areas will
reduce migration and frequency of diseases especially cholera, malaria and
bilharzia.
 Encourage more industries to locate in rural areas: This can be achieved
government policies such as subsidies and tax rebates for industries that locate in
rural areas.
 Increase recreational facilities in rural areas: Provision of entertainment
facilities in rural areas will help make rural areas less boring e.g. establishment of
stadiums and youth centres in major villages.
 Improvement of basic infrastructure: There is need to develop roads and
telecommunication networks so as to improve linkage between rural areas and
urban areas.
 Establishment of social welfare facilities: An increase in the number of social
services will encourage more people to live in rural areas e.g. housing, schools,
post offices, banks, shops etc.
 Education: People in rural areas need to be taught about the negative
consequences of migration. This can be done through kgotla meetings, workshops
and through the media.
 Balancing of skilled manpower across all regions: Skilled manpower can be
equally spread and rotated across the country so that all regions can benefit.
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Non Governmental Orgaisations

 Education: They can conduct kgotla meetings and seminars to educate people
about the effects of migration.
 Provisions of basic needs: Some NGOs like Red Cross often donate clothes,
food, shelter and medicine to poor rural dwellers.
 Creation of jobs: Some NGOs have branches in rural areas and this helps in
terms of development and creating employment.
 Represent the interests of rural dwellers: Some international and local
NGOs advocate for the rights of rural people so that they cannot be ill-treated
e.g. Survival International and Ditshwanelo.

Causes of conflict over the use of natural resources

 Overpopulation: Population increase has led to people exceeding available
resources and this can lead to shortage of resources such as land, water and
fuelwood. Shortage of such resources can lead to people scrambling for limited
resources resulting in conflicts as everyone would like to have a share.
 Forced removals: People have often been forcibly relocated to other areas in
order to pave way for development. Forced relocations may create conflicts
between people and the district or town council e.g. the removal of Basarwa from
Central Kalahari Game Reserve (CKGR).
 Unfair distribution of resources: Government or other stakeholders may be
biased in allocation of resources such as water and land. This may create conflicts
between the disadvantaged communities and the government.
 Denied access to natural resources: In some regions people may be denied the
right to use certain resources by government or other stakeholders in
environmental conservation. However, some people may continue to use such
resources despite being prohibited by the law. This can cause conflicts between
the public and environmentalists.
 Lack of consultation: Some developments may be done in certain areas without
any prior consultation with people living in such areas. This will cause conflicts
between the residents and whoever makes developments.
 Delayed allocation of resources: Relevant authorities may take a very long time
to allocate resources such as land to people resulting in establishment of squatter
settlements. Squatters are usually evicted by the town or district council resulting
in conflicts between the squatters and the council.
 Illegal or mismanagement of resources: Unlawful or mismanagement of
resources can lead to conflicts between people and the government or
conservationists. For instance, some people hunt endangered species of animals
which may consequently lead to their extinction.
 Ownership: In some communities residents often claim to be the owners of all
natural resources within and around their communities. This often leads to
conflicts between people from different communities. For example, neighbouring
communities often fight for resources such as grazing lands and rivers.
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 Resources not benefiting the community: Some natural resources like minerals
may be extracted from areas belonging to certain communities. Conflicts may
arise between members of such communities and the mining company as the
residents would demand more benefits as they feel that the resources are theirs.
 Land-use conflicts: There have been several conflicts arising from the use of
land especially between farming communities and wildlife. Conflicts may arise
between farmers and wildlife department.

Ways of resolving conflicts arising from the use of scarce resources by various
stakeholders.
a. Government
 Legislation: The government should formulate laws that protect the natural
environment e.g. firewood collection as well as the law on harvesting of veld
products such as thatching grass and phane.
 Strict government policies: Enforce anti-pollution laws and punish those
individuals or organisations that pollute the environment..
 Education: Government should educate communities through workshops and
kgotla meetings about the importance of resources and the need to preserve them.
 Negotiation and consultation: Government should consult or work hand in hand
with other stakeholders in order to find a common solution to environmental
issues.
b. Community
 Form more clubs or organisations that campaign against environmental
mismanagement.
 Educate the public about conservation through conducting workshops and
seminars.
 Advise the government on environmental issues and assist in formulation of
policies.

c. Private Sector
 More investment in conservation
 Sponsor educational workshops and activities concerned with environmental
conservation
 Assist the government in formulation of policies.