The Commodity Edge Short Term Update

www.wavescapital.com Bottom line: Gold & Silver should continue the steep fall. One more down leg pending for base metals in coming days. MCX GOLD: DAILY CHART
5?
GOLD MCX (26,275.00, 26,378.00, 26,255.00, 26,350.00, +131.00)

The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

October 10, 2011

28400

5 (v)

ii

29000 28500 28000

(iii) i (iv) a

26470 iv ?

27500 27000 26500 26000

25553 iii c ? 24600

25500 25000 24500 24000 23500 23000

(i) b (ii) a

22500 22000

c 4

21500 21000 20500 20000

Relative Strength Index (45.2567)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 10000 x10

March

April

May

June

July

August

Septem ber

Novem ber

Wave Analysis
Last week for MCX Gold, we mentioned that prices are trading in the corrective wave C. Prices are still consolidating within a small symmetrical triangle formed near Rs. 26470 level. Prices should see some more consolidation here and then they should move below Rs.25553 level, so as to confirm the corrective pattern. A move below 25500 should open up way down for 24600 levels. Prices might take some short term support here at this level, which is also at the upward sloping trend line. For now sell on rallies for a fall towards 25500 followed by 24600.

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011 MCX SILVER: DAILY CHART

Silver Daily (52,603.00, 53,535.00, 52,566.00, 53,223.00, +926.000)

75000

ii
70000

B ii
i iv i
60000 65000

iv? 54700 iii vA

49690 iii? A =C Target
Relative Strength Index (42.9591)

55000

50000

45000

43000
40000

50
2010 2011 February March April May June July August September October November

Wave Analysis
As mentioned in the last report, MCX Silver made a low of Rs.49690 and then again gave a pull back up to Rs.54700. this suggests that internal (iv)th wave of C is complete. Further we expect prices to move within the range of Rs.54700/Rs.50000 and later they should give a break below Rs.50000, so as to confirm the completion of the corrective wave C. As per the equality principle, wave C is likely to fall up to Rs.43000 (A=C). In the near term, Rs.54700 will act as a strong resistance for Silver. At present, MCX Silver can be sold on rallies to Rs.54700 for a target of Rs. 50000/49700.

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

MCX CRUDE : DAILY CHART ANTICIPATED ON 19TH SEPT

CRUDE MCX (3,963.00, 4,030.00, 3,951.00, 4,002.00, +30.00)

5200 5100 5000 4900

b S

4800 4700

X
S a c

4457

4600 4500

b?

4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900

3820

3800 3700 3600

a
Relative Strength Index (45.3904)

c?
3365

3500

70 60 50 40 30 20

December

2011

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

HAPPENED
CRUDE MCX (4,046.00, 4,076.00, 4,035.00, 4,071.00, +36.00)

5200 5100 5000 4900

b S

4800 4700

X
S a c

4457

4600 4500

b?

4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900

3820

3800 3700 3600

a
Relative Strength Index (52.9410)

c?
3365

3500

70 60 50 40 30 20

December

2011

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

Wave Analysis
In the previous update, we said, any break below 4100 should invite a steep fall towards a new low. Initially Rs. 3820 might offer some support for the prices and any fall below this level will drag the prices lower up to Rs.3370/Rs.3365. The prices did try to break below the level of 3820, but were unable to sustain there for long and again gave a pull back on the higher side. Currently the prices are taking resistance near 4100 level, which is a crucial level. Prices should now see a downfall and should move below 3820 to confirm the completion of the last leg of correction, i.e., wave C. Ideally prices should move below 3820 towards the target region of 3370 in the coming weeks.

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011 MCX COPPER: DAILY CHART ANTICIPATED ON 19TH SEPT
c X ii b a i iv I b iii v a iv? IV ? i
COPPER MCX (362.80, 377.00, 362.80, 368.95, +6.40) 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 340 335 330 325 70 60 50 40 30 20 20 27 4 July 11 18 25 1 August 8 16 22 29 5 September 12 19 26 3 10 October 17 24 31 7 November

429
II ii

386

iii v? III ? V?
Relative Strength Index (28.9529)

340
c?

Y?

HAPPENED
c X
COPPER MCX (360.00, 360.65, 359.20, 360.30, +1.05)

ii b a i iv I b iii v a i iv IV

429
II ii

386

W
iii III V?
Relative Strength Index (40.8639)

340
c? Y?

450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 340 335 330 325 70 60 50 40 30 20

13

20

27

4 July

11

18

25

1 August

16

22

29

5 September

12

19

26

3 10 October

17

24

31

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

Wave Analysis
In our last update, we mentioned that, we should see a steep fall now in the copper prices. We also said that the internal wave counts on copper daily chart suggest that prices have some more downside pending. Any rallies towards 375/386 will now be capped for a fall towards the target of 340 or even lower. The prices behaved exactly in the similar manner this week (denoted by a circle). Prices are currently taking resistance near Rs.355/358. Prices should trade below these levels for some time and then we can expect a fall below 340 or even lower, which will confirm the completion of Y.

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The Commodity Edge Short Term Update October 10, 2011

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