Professional Documents
Culture Documents
دليل المستثمر في التقنية العميقة- إنجليزي
دليل المستثمر في التقنية العميقة- إنجليزي
to Deep Tech
November 2023
By Jean-François Bobier, Anne-Douce Coulin, Constant Morez, Greg Emerson,
Kaustubh Wagle, and Antoine Gourévitch
An Investor’s Guide to Deep Tech
While many investors were prospecting elsewhere, deep (or
emerging) technologies staked out territory as an established asset
class—with the returns to match the best venture investments.
Deep technologies are the technologies of the future— BCG has been advising on, researching, and writing about
the solutions to major global challenges, such as climate deep tech for years. (See the sidebar “A Selection of BCG’s
change, food shortages, and disease. As investments, they Thinking on Deep Tech.”) Here’s our guide for investors
are not for the faint-hearted since they are almost always that are now looking into the field.
risky and typically require more capital and greater pa-
tience than do other asset classes. But the markets that
deep tech opens and the returns that startups realize An Established Asset Class
can be huge.
Venture capital funding of deep tech fell back from a re-
For these reasons, over the past half decade, deep tech has cord $160 billion in 2021 to about $105 billion in 2022 and
become a mainstream funding destination for corporate, to $40 billion for the first half of 2023—close to 2020
venture capital, sovereign wealth, and private equity inves- levels. The drop roughly tracked the broader decline in
tors. Deep tech claims a stable 20% share of venture capi- venture funding that resulted from rising interest rates
tal funding, up from about 10% a decade ago. Multiple during this period. The more significant point is that deep
funding rounds and billion-dollar investments are com- tech’s share of venture funding has held constant at ap-
monplace. Investors that do not understand the opportuni- proximately 20% since 2019, signaling that these technolo-
ties, which are significant, and learn the ropes, which can gies have come into their own as an asset class. (See
be complex, are missing out on attractive returns and an Exhibit 1.) Moreover, the size of the average deep tech
excellent means of diversifying their portfolios. investment has significantly increased. Many investments
now reach $100 million or more, and billion-dollar funding
commitments are no longer uncommon.
40
21% 20% 21%
19%
30
OpenAI
20 ($10 billion)
10
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1,000
26% 21%
Traditional Average IRR, Average IRR,
100 not weighted weighted
10
0.10
Distribution
CO2 emissions Overpopulation An older and Remote work Semiconductor Storage needs Cybersecurity Global conflicts
need to be and wealthier and an aging density and are doubling threats (quantum and tensions can
reduced by environmental population is workforce is speed is hitting every one to two technologies pose disrupt stability,
about 50% by degradation can causing changes creating gaps for quantum physics years, and the both threats and fuel warfare, and
2030 lead to increased across industries, low-paid jobs limitations at amount of data solutions) foster
competition for including in and disrupting three worldwide is manufacturing
rare resources health care ways of working nanometers expected to reshoring
reach 175
zettabytes by
2025
• $5 trillion • >$280 billion • >$10 trillion • ~30% of global • >$500 billion • >$60 billion • >$150 billion • >$500 billion
global energy global water global health workforce global data storage global global defense
market, 2022 market (7% care market works semiconductor market, 2021 cybersecurity market
• >40 billion CAGR or more, (8% CAGR or remotely market (about 25% market (10% • 30% of global
tons of CO2 2021–2029) more, • 1.5 billion CAGR, CAGR, manufacturing
emissions, 2023–2030) people are 2022–2030) 2023–2028) is in China,
2022 older than age 2019
65 by 2050
Series C
Grants Seed Series A Series B Growth
and beyond
Conduct Isolate an idea on Plan to create an Develop prototype Have a proven Look to scale and
Funding foundational the basis of initial prototype iterations to prove technology monetize product
stage research at the scientific research that the technology
university level is viable
State of
NA Idea Pre-prototype Initial prototype Iterated prototype Product that is
product
ready to scale
Average Primarily $1 million to $5 million to $20 million to More than More than
investment government or $5 million $20 million $50 million $50 million $100 million
university grants
24 25 24 23
20 20
17
15 About 95 months from
seed to Series D for
deep tech startups vs.
75 months for other
tech ventures
Deep tech
~95% ~80% ~50% NA1
failure rates
Other tech
~90% ~70% ~40% NA1
failure rates
Demo-
Climate and sustainability Technology Security
graphics
Digital
Mobility Energy Physical Health Cybersecurity, cross-
and and cross-industry and DeFI, and industry
logistics climate Agri-food platform well-being legal tech platform Space Defense
Technology
Digital AI
Autonomous systems
Advanced physics
and chemistry
Synthetic biology
Advanced materials
and nanotechnology
Next-generation interfaces
Blockchain
Factory automation
Quantum technologies
We also analyzed the activity of deep tech’s current pool of Genius Hunters. These are small funds that have strong
investors. Each fund follows its own strategies, of course, ties to research institutions and that are focused on seed
but patterns over the past several years have revealed five investments. They number about 500 in total and are
types of investors that are active at different stages of the located close to large research institutions. They typically
investment life cycle. (See Exhibit 7.) Each type has built have less than $100 million in assets under management.
differentiated skills and capabilities to support its ap- Genius hunters concentrate on pre-seed and seed invest-
proach. There also may be other ways to play, but these five ments that are typically $1 million to $5 million and that
archetypes offer a variety of models for others to consider. have a time horizon of three to five years. Each fund focus-
es on one or two investment theses, such as molecular
biotechnology, planetary health, and food and agriculture.
Our analysis of deep technologies reveals clear patterns of The fundamental challenges that these technologies seek
investment activity over the past five years. (See the exhibit to solve can be classified into ten categories of use cases.
“Deep Tech Investments Can Be Classified into Ten Tech- (See the exhibit “Among Use Cases, Mobility and Digital
nology Groups.”) Digital AI, the backbone technology of Cross-Industry Platforms Have Received Almost Half of
deep tech, accounted for almost one-third of investments. Deep Tech Investments.”) A handful of areas are of very
Autonomous systems attracted a fifth of the funding, and high focus for investors. After mobility and logistics (27% of
advanced physics and chemistry, sensors and the internet funding) and digital cross-industry platforms (21%), inves-
of things, and synthetic biology received another 32%. tors are interested in health and well-being (15%), energy
and climate (9%), physical cross-industry platforms (8%),
and space (7%). All of the startups operating in these areas
could be the unicorns of tomorrow.
Autonomous Electric vehicles, autonomous driving, drones, robots, Cruise, Nuro, Rivian, Waymo,
20
systems eVTOL aircraft, and nanosatellites and WM Motor
CommonWealth Fusion
Advanced physics Battery technology, energy production, green solvents,
13 System, Northvolt, Relativity,
and chemistry and propulsion systems
SpaceX, and TAE Technologies
Blockchain and homomorphic encryption (platform only, Consensys, Ledger, and Near
Blockchain 3
excluding use cases such as nonfungible tokens)
Digital cross-industry
21 Generative AI and cognitive platforms OpenAI
platforms
Health Drug discovery, smart wearables, AI diagnostics, CMR Surgical, Exscientia, and
15
and well-being surgery robots, and biologic drugs Roivant Sciences
Energy Energy production, carbon mitigation and economy, Climeworks and TAE
9
and climate and climate adaptation Technologies
Physical cross-industry
8 Bioreactors and advanced materials Gingko Bioworks
platforms
Space 7 Nanosatellites, satellite imagery, satellite communications, Oneweb and Sierra Space
and zero-gravity manufacturing
Cybersecurity, DeFi, Cybersecurity threat probes and predictions, peer-to-peer Consensys and Dataminr
6
and legal tech lending, and generative AI in legal
Other 4 Construction, fashion, media, and education Improbable and Magic Leap
Tech
One or two areas Two or three areas Four or more areas Four or more areas One or two areas
focus
$1 million to $5 million $5 million to $25 million $25 million to $50 $40 million or more $5 million to $50 million
Average
(deploy ~$25 million per (deploy ~$75 million per million (deploy ~$125 (deploy ~$400 million (annual investment
investment year), often co-invested year) million per year) per year) varies significantly)
Early-Stage Investors. Some 250 small-to-midsized funds Life Cycle Investors. These large investors—about ten
around the world, managing $100 million to $500 million firms around the world managing more than $1 billion
each, double down on existing startups within a specific each—look to make long-term strategic investments in
vertical. Their typical investment is $5 million to $25 mil- deep tech. They are active from the seed capital stage
lion, and each also focuses on two to three investment through the later stages, focusing on investments of
themes (such as AI, climate change, health, and quantum $40 million or more and a lengthy (seven to ten year) time
computing). horizon.
Growth-Focused Venture Capital Funds. These larger Bits-Only Deep Tech Investors. A few, large traditional
and more diverse funds leverage their existing investment venture capital funds are making limited investments in
capabilities to invest in attractive startups. They number software-only deep tech. The funds are typically large
about 50, with assets under management of $250 million (more than $1 billion in assets under management) and
to $1 billion. They focus on Series B or later investments of their investments range across the life cycle, from small
$25 million to $50 million each and a five-to-seven-year seed deals ($5 million) to large ($50 million) late-stage
time horizon. They “specialize” more widely across the investments. Their time horizon is usually three to four
deep tech landscape, and some are corporate venture years.
capital offshoots of large established companies.
Deploying patient
Funding Funding startups
capital across
across various stages
investments is key
and investment sizes
since multiple rounds
is important
of funding are needed
Objectives of prioritization
• To identify the core areas in which
funds should develop deeper expertise
Disruptive potential
to facilitate investing
• To inform factors in operating model
design (for example, governance,
capabilities, and networks)
Likely Evaluate tech risks and Low
saturated invest to diversify priority • To identify longer-term opportunities for
selective and opportunistic investing
Time to value
Investors can then prioritize segments by considering the This analysis will result in a handful of core investment
following: areas and longer-horizon and diversification opportunities.
(See Exhibit 9.) The former are target areas in which to
• Disruptive Potential. Which use cases can the selected develop deeper expertise and start to assess actual candi-
technology redefine? dates for funding. Funds can selectively and opportunisti-
cally invest in the latter to diversify their portfolios and
• Investment Possibilities. How quickly are startups build a long-term technology advantage.
growing in this area? How full is the pipeline of available
investments based on the number of startups in the
field and the deals currently being done? O nce a niche for high-risk, high-return bettors, deep tech
investing has migrated to the mainstream of venture
funding, riding a wave of expanded understanding and
• Time to Value. How mature is the technology? What appreciation of the opportunities available. Since the prob-
are the remaining technological risks? lems that deep technologies seek to solve are both large
and complex, they are likely to be with us for a long time.
• Existing Capabilities. Does the fund have the capabil- The need for advanced technology solutions will only
ities and resources to leverage in the field? If not, what increase, but the playing field of funders will also become
capabilities does it need to build? What’s the level of more crowded and competitive. This is the time for fore-
difficulty? sighted investors to make their play in the deep tech game.
Countries’ support of deep tech varies widely. In both the Governments also play a critical role in deep tech as policy
private and public sectors, the support takes many forms setters, regulators, and funders. National or regional poli-
and affects the growth and health of supporting ecosys- cies and frameworks can support and subsidize strategic
tems. The US and China lead the world in absolute share segments’ growth, from origin and incubation (which often
of deep tech funding provided, with more than 60% and takes place in academia) to market development. This
12%, respectively; Europe collectively has 14%. At the same support can take multiple forms. For example:
time, our analysis of deep tech funding as a share of GDP
shows that several nations—among them Israel, Sweden, • Policymaking. Dedicated policy frameworks, including
the US, Singapore, and the UK—are aggressively trying to tax incentives, preferential loan conditions and guaran-
support deep tech development. (See the exhibit.) In coun- tees, and legislation that promotes a national agenda
tries where pension funds are part of the investing infra- (such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 in the US)
structure, they put substantial capital into the market and help make the business case work for deep technologies.
can be major backers for startup funding. This is one of the As the first country to authorize synthetic meat (chicken)
reasons why the US’s ration of funding to GDP ratio is grown from animal cells, Singapore gave a boost to the
much larger than Europe’s. development of alternative proteins.
Israel, Sweden, the US, Singapore, the UK, and Switzerland Invest More of
Their Wealth in Deep Tech Than Do Other Countries
Deep tech intensity, 2018–20231
3
0 GDP
Israel US Singapore Canada Germany
Sweden UK France South Korea
Switzerland China Japan
Jean-François Bobier is a partner and vice president, Anne-Douce Coulin is a senior product manager, deep
deep tech, in the Paris office of Boston Consulting Group. tech, in the firm’s Paris office. You may contact her by
You may contact him by email at bobier.jean-francois email at coulin.anne-douce@bcg.com.
@bcg.com.
Constant Morez is a partner in BCG’s Paris office. You Greg Emerson is a managing director and partner in the
may contact him by email at morez.constant@bcg.com. firm’s San Francisco office. You may contact him by email
at emerson.greg@bcg.com.
Kaustubh Wagle is a managing director and partner in Antoine Gourévitch is a managing director and senior
BCG’s Dubai office. You may contact him by email at partner in the firm’s Paris office. You may contact him by
wagle.kaustubh@bcg.com. email at gourevitch.antoine@bcg.com.
If you would like to discuss this report, please contact one The authors would like to thank Linus Bergström of BCG,
of the authors. Cassia Naudet-Baulieu of BCG, Lorenzo Chiavarini of
Dealroom, and Nico Dehnert of Optiml for their contribu-
tions to this article.