Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PE LV 08 220220 Milind Watve
PE LV 08 220220 Milind Watve
PE LV 08 220220 Milind Watve
S
A fundamental question in “ uppose, in a business you invest The above example, although very simple,
economics as well as in adaptive `1,000 and get `1,500 as return. demonstrates that optimising difference
You have `500 as net profit. Sup- and optimising ratio can lead us to dia-
evolutionary biology is when to
pose you expand on the business by ad- metrically opposite decisions. The ques-
use difference and when to use ditionally investing `1,000. Now you get tion is not only important in economics,
division in cost–benefit analysis. a net profit of `800 instead of `500. but also in biology. Evolutionary bio-
At times, decisions taken to Would you consider the decision of this logists frequently worry about budgets,
additional investment as a wise deci- where energy, time, health, longevity, or
maximise the cost–benefit ratio
sion?” We raised this question in a meet- reproductive success is the currency.
can be diametrically opposite to ing of a mixed group, consisting mainly Only the ones with a profitable budget
that to maximise the cost–benefit of social workers working with farmers, will survive. As a result, an intuitive
difference. Common people fisherfolk, pastoral, and tribal communi- sense of optimising has evolved in ani-
ties. We were discussing the economics mals. It is unlikely that humans are an
intuitively know when to
of livelihood for people dependent on exception to the evolved intuitive opti-
maximise the ratio and when to nature. Some of them said, “Yes. We will misation mechanisms. But, humans also
maximise the difference. The invest `1,000 more because by doing so, have conscious thinking and theorisation,
contrasting history of hybrid our net profit goes up.” Some of them so we should seek a logical explanation
said, “No. This is not wise! Because, for our decisions in our conscious beliefs
versus “desi” breeds in agriculture
even if net profit goes up, it is not in pro- and theories. So, we wanted a logical
as opposed to animal husbandry portion to the additional investment. answer to the question of when to divide
illustrates this point effectively. The ratio actually decreases with the and when to subtract.
additional investment.” We then started scanning economics
Which of the answers is correct? Is it textbooks and asking economist friends
really wise to make the additional inves- about when to take the ratio and when
tment or not? Both the groups certainly to take the difference in the cost–benefit
used logic which was “right” in their analysis. The economists we consulted
context. Both the groups were doing a ranged from teachers of first-year eco-
careful cost–benefit analysis. But, one nomics in colleges to senior economists
group was using net profit, defined as working as consultants in multilateral
returns minus the cost. The other was organisations. Surprisingly, we did not
using a ratio, defined as returns divided get any definitive answer. The responses
by the cost. Interestingly, even within included “Use ratio;” “Use difference;”
the latter group, individuals working “We always use ratios, but I don’t know
with farmers appeared to think in a dif- why;” “Use either, what difference does it
ferent way than individuals working make?” “I don’t know;” and “Frankly
with tribal communities. For this article, speaking, I never thought of this ques-
we will use the words “cost” and “benefit” tion.” The theory of probability in math-
Milind Watve (milind.watve@gmail.com) is a to describe the actualities of a deal, and ematics begins with two simple rules
freelance researcher and formerly taught at the
the words “investment” and “returns” to that tell us when to add probabilities and
Indian Institute of Science Education and
Research (IISER), Pune, and is interested in refer to the perceptions and strategies of when to multiply. We thought there
the evolution of human behaviour and human an investor. would be such simple rules that instruct
social systems. Ojas S V (meetojas@gmail.com) Although the dilemma of using differ- when to use difference and ratio. How-
is with the Maharashtra Gene Bank Programme, ence or division, or rather when one ever, we learnt that such rules do not ex-
IISER, Pune.
should use difference and division, could ist, or even if they do, most economists,
28 FEBRUARY 22, 2020 vol lV no 8 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
PERSPECTIVES
at least in our sample, do not seem to invest much more in Figure 1: Concept of Ratio Optimum versus Difference Optimum
600
know them. terms of money or efforts.
Whereas, in maximising Ymax
In that context, cattle are more like a need not always be money. Time, labour, the entire country changed agricultural
“crop” and land is a limiting factor. This energy, sex, reproductive success, sur- practices. Individual farmers invested
sets the ground for a difference model to vival, or social status work as currencies more in order to get more returns, al-
work in which the investment as well as in human intuitive economic calculations though the benefit to cost ratio might
productivity goes up. Thus, the economics (McNamara and Houston 1986: 358–78), have actually declined. It should also
of modern Western dairy farming and but it is beyond doubt that using cost– be noted that although there were many
traditional cattle keeping is fundamen- benefit optimisation is an innate ten- incentives and promotional schemes
tally different, and therefore, the breeds dency of animals (Parker and Smith 1990: launched by the government, nothing was
and characteristics of animals support- 27–33; Smith and Winterhalder 1992: made mandatory. The farmers largely
ing the two economic models are also 25–60) and that legacy continues in accepted the green revolution in a short
fundamentally different. In a ratio model humans. Formal education is not a pri- span of time.
that is typical of traditional Indian ani- mary requirement for making such com- More recent is the specific case of
mal keeping, people will tend to select plex calculations. While doing formal Bt cotton. India is the world’s largest
animals requiring near zero inputs with- economics, some of the currencies can be cotton producing country (Statista 2019).
out worrying much about their produc- put in numbers as equivalents of money, Bt cotton was introduced in 2002, and
tivity. In the modern Western private whereas for other currencies, it is diffi- it took a few years to be known. Soon,
ranching system, there would be a selec- cult to set up an equivalence with money. Bt cotton percentage in terms of produc-
tion for high-productivity animals even Herein lies the difference between intui- tion area boomed up from 6% in 2004–05
if they require greater inputs. The differ- tive economics and formal economics. to 81% in 2009–10. In less than eight
ence in productivity in different varieties Nevertheless, the fundamental princi- years, 93% cotton farmers started using
of animals originates in the selection ples of cost–benefit analysis, including Bt cotton (ISAAA 2014). The change was
operating on these animals. Animals the above stated rule about ratio versus so rapid that non-Bt cotton seeds were
bred for generations in the difference difference, need not be different. practically out of the market, and many
model become more productive, and If asked directly, farmers do not know indigenous varieties were threatened to
those under the ratio model become more what a difference model is and what a extinction (Kumarnath 2016). More gen-
hardy and resilient, but less productive. ratio model is, but they appear to use the erally, hybrid or high-yielding varieties
right model in the right context. In have replaced indigenous varieties, and
Innate and Intuitive Economics another study published earlier (Bayani a special drive is needed to conserve
Evolutionary ecologists have shown that et al 2016), we tested the differential indigenous varieties.
even the so-called “dumb” or “unintelli- predictions of the difference versus ratio In contrast, if we see the case of live-
gent” animals with tiny brains make models on a set of farmers (Watve et al stock, Operation Flood, launched in 1972,
very careful cost–benefit judgments. For 2016: 861–67). The results showed very was a project of India’s National Dairy
example, a parasitoid wasp typically lays clearly that farmers unanimously used Development Board (NDDB), which was
eggs on the caterpillar of a host insect. the difference model. Thus, the farmers the world’s biggest dairy development
The number of eggs to be laid on a given appeared to have an intuitive knowledge programme. High milch foreign breeds
caterpillar is a complex investment deci- of some principles of economics, which were introduced in the cattle population.
sion. The optimum egg investment per our educated economists have not yet Programmes like artificial insemination
caterpillar unit depends upon a number clearly figured out. (AI) were launched, with substantial
of factors, including the expected remai- thrust from government and non-gov-
ning lifespan of the female, the residual Hybrid Crops vs Crossbred Cows ernmental agencies. Concerned agen-
egg-laying capacity, the probability of The green revolution entered India in cies worked with targets and tried to
finding more host caterpillars, whether a the late 1960s. It was brought in by gov- reach out to every doorstep to insemi-
caterpillar found already has eggs laid by ernment efforts, with the help of vision- nate local cows with high-quality semen
a competing female, and so on. Mathe- ary scientists. The government whole- (NDDB 2015). Furthermore, there were
matical ecologists have shown that wasp heartedly promoted the use of hybrid moves to improve feed, fodder and vet-
females are able to take a complex seeds, chemical pesticides, and fertilis- erinary services. But, the efforts precede
economic decision (Heimpel et al 1996: ers, bringing about changes in tradition- Operation Flood since even before Ope-
2410–20). al farming practices. The new agricul- ration Flood, there were active efforts to
Considering the astonishing innate tural practices needed more investment eradicate and replace indigenous cattle.
mathematical ability of a wasp, it should not only in purchasing hybrid seeds, but For example, in Kerala, castration of lo-
not be surprising that even illiterate also for chemical fertilisers, pesticides, cal bulls was made mandatory under the
humans do take wise economic decisions and irrigation. Hybrid or high-yielding Kerala Livestock Improvement Act of
even when they have not studied econom- varieties of seeds certainly required 1961. Under this act, any bull of an indig-
ics formally. Humans appear to make com- more care, since they were more suscep- enous breed reaching sexual maturity
plex cost–benefit analysis while making tible to climatic variation as well as dis- had to be castrated and a task force set up
several decisions where the currency eases and pests. Within a decade, almost to implement the castration operations
30 FEBRUARY 22, 2020 vol lV no 8 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
PERSPECTIVES
Figure 2: Time Trends in Terms of Percentage of Total Area/Population of Bt Figure 3: Comparative Cost–Benefit of Cattle Farmer and Dairy
Cotton and Cross-bred Cattle 70
100
Benefit farmer
30
40
20
Cross-bred cows
20
10
Ropt farmer Ropt dairy
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Year Cost
Source: 19th Livestock Census 2012: All India Report and ISAAA (2014). Source: Conceptual diagram, no real data.
at a mass scale. Nothing comparable to predominating agricultural economics, which is ecologically sound (Palekar
this was ever done for Bt cotton or any they are ready to invest more money and 2007). We raise no doubts about the
high-yielding crop variety. Even doorstep- efforts and go for higher yields. But, ecological and sustainability-related mer-
level facilitation and persuasion was with animals, they are happier with its of zero-budget agriculture. But, the
never needed for the green revolution. small yields coming out of near zero in- response from the farmer community to
In spite of all such efforts, the trend in vestment because they are using a ratio this model so far is extremely limited.
the growth of exotic/crossbred cattle re- model. This choice of the model is com- Out of the 140 million hectares (ha) of
mained poor, in contrast with the trends pletely innate and intuitive. Nobody did agricultural land in India (Directorate of
in high-yielding crop varieties (Figure 2). any calculations consciously. Such calcu- Economics and Statistics 2014: 305), farm-
Although there has been a steady lations must be as natural and built-in as ers have committed to organic farming
decline in indigenous cattle percentage the wasp optimising her egg investment. in only 0.51 million ha (PoliticalTruth
and a steady increase in exotic/hybrid Now, it is high time that formal econo- 2016). The reason is likely to be that the
cattle, the percentage share of exotic/ mics recognises the innate economic promoters are trying to promote ratio
crossbreed cattle has increased only by models of people. optimisation (Misra 2007), whereas the
14% in two decades (from 1992 to 2012). farmers’ community has a difference
In comparison with the 93% spread of Bt Ratio Model in Agriculture model in their intuitive calculation. It
cotton in eight years, this increase is The ratio model can be appropriate for would be necessary for the promotion of
meagre. Particularly notable is the vast agriculture under a set of conditions. In organic farming to rework its economics
majority of the so-called “non-descript” slash-and-burn agriculture, where new and see how it performs in a difference
cattle (DAHD 2012). There have been land can be brought under cultivation, model. If Misra’s (2007) claim is correct,
excellent indigenous cattle breeds, such that is, new investment opportunities both the ratio and difference models
as gir, that are high-yielding, but even can be created, a ratio model will work could be more favourable in “spiritual”
they were never abundant across the better. Also, in a society that is free to agriculture. But, unless it is propagated
country. Majority of the population was expand the agricultural land, a ratio model by projecting its economic superiority by
happy with the low-yielding one, but is appropriate. We see this difference in the difference model, farmers are unlikely
self-sustaining hardy cattle that needed the history of modern agriculture too. In to adopt it on a large scale.
little care and survived droughts, dis- the 1960s, the green revolution took
eases, and parasites (Mazoomdaar 2013). quick and firm roots in India, but it did When Two Optima Contradict
These animals’ performance was poor if not succeed in much of Africa, although The contrasting example comes from
seen through the difference model, but its promotion was attempted (Pingali the rapidly rising dairy industry. When a
excellent by the ratio model because the 2012: 12,305). For the 1960s population- dairy company or cooperative is estab-
investment needed was negligible. to-land ratio in much of Africa, people lished, it has invested substantial amounts
Thus, there is a stark contrast between could rely on the ratio model and were into overhead costs like land, establish-
people’s response to high-yielding crop not interested in difference optimisation. ment cost, machinery, storage, and sup-
varieties and high-yielding animal breeds. As the population grew, and there was a ply chains. Although the dairy industry
They seem to have accepted the former clear demarcation of agricultural lands might still be using the ratio model, a
in a short time, but have resisted the latter and land saturation, the difference model rise in overheads shifts the optimum to
even after the option has existed for a started gradually taking over, and the the right. The dairy unit has certain other
long time. We feel that the difference response to the green revolution improved. limitations. It can take raw material from
lies in the economic model of optimisa- Today, we see substantial and sincere several cattle or buffalo owners. But,
tion used. With the difference model efforts to promote zero-budget agriculture, since milk is highly perishable, there is a
Economic & Political Weekly EPW FEBRUARY 22, 2020 vol lV no 8 31
PERSPECTIVES
Figure 4: Time Trends in Organised Dairy Sector and Cross-bred Cattle Figure 5: Correlation between Statewise Milk Processing Capacity of Organised
Dairy Sector and the Number of Artificial Inseminations in the State
30
25,000
(thousands)
Milk to organised sector 20,000
thousands)
Uttar Pradesh
20
Percentage
Tamil Nadu
Artificial Insemination
Cross-bred cows Karnataka Maharashtra
10,000
10 Punjab
Kerala
West Bengal Haryana Gujarat
5,000
Odisha Madhya Pradesh
0 Himachal Pradesh
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Year Organised sector capacity (million litres)
Source: 19th Livestock Report and Sharma et al (2002). Source: Sharma et al (2002).
limit to the area from which it can trans- rise is closely followed by the pattern which would help the planning of large-
port raw milk. Within this area, they need of the number of cross-bred cattle re- scale operations in the right direction
to maximise the incoming flow. There- flecting acceptance of cross-breed cattle and in the most effective way.
fore, the industry is interested in a higher by people. Although the jersey cow was This article is neither to support gene-
investment and higher returns model. introduced in India long ago in 1856 tically modified (GM) crops, nor to oppose
This goes in a subtle conflict with the (Chako 1994), systematic breeding pro- better animal husbandry practices. It
animal owners. The optimum for the in- grammes began only in the 1960s. demonstrates how the underlying innate–
dustry is far to the right than the optimum Thereon, it followed the growth curve intuitive economic model used by ordi-
for animal keepers (Figure 3, p 31). As a of the organised dairy sector very faith- nary people dominates the outcome. For
result, the industry would have to take fully. Even geographically, the statewise promoting any new technology or prac-
special efforts to motivate people to success of artificial insemination pro- tice on a nationwide scale, it is necessary
increase their investment per animal and gramme shows a good positive correlation to understand people’s economics with-
improve the returns per animal. For this, (r = 0.64, p = 0.018) with the number of out which huge efforts can turn unpro-
they need to give incentives, attractive organised sector units and the total ductive. The whole motive of this analysis
offers, free veterinary services, animal capacity (Figure 5). The correlation re- is to understand how microeconomics at
insurance, assured market or some other mains significant even after correcting the farmers’ level affect trends in a big-
means to motivate them. Only with such for the area of the state. Thus, much of ger picture. It is surprising that such an
efforts, the high-yielding varieties can be the spread of high-yielding cattle is cater- analysis has not been the centre of
sustainable by people’s intuitive economics. ing to the economic interest of the organ- thinking in this field. Huge amounts of
As a result, in the milk catchment area ised dairy industry rather than the econo- efforts have gone into developing better
of large dairy units, high-yielding breeds mic interest of individual cattle keepers. breeds, sperm banks, artificial insemi-
are expected to be better accepted by Our emphasis on the use of ratio nation techniques, and the like. A num-
people. In the absence of incentives and versus difference models of intuitive ber of excuses are given to explain the
active promotion by organised dairy age- economics does not mean that other relative failure of cattle-breed improve-
ncies, people are unlikely to accept and factors, such as government policies, ment. The predominant excuses include
maintain these varieties on a mass scale market infrastructure, advertising and the relatively high care required for
and over a long time. This prediction of socio-political–cultural acceptance do cross-bred cows, the need for continued
the hypothesis matches with the statisti- not play any role in the growth and ac- cross-breeding programme since the
cal trend. The spread of cross-bred var- ceptance of high-yielding varieties. But, quality is not maintained in subsequent
ieties closely follow the rise in the dairy it gives the right platform on which the generations and the lack of awareness
industry (Figure 4). effects of every factors can be rightly and education in people (Sainath 2012;
mapped. If planning is based on the ap- Ramdas and Ghotge 2006). Interestingly,
Dairy Industry and Breed Selection propriate economic model, the imple- all of these factors were applicable to hy-
The organised sector of the Indian dairy mentation is more likely to be effective. brid crops as well, but they did not prevent
industry started growing post-independ- their acceptance and spread (Koshy 2011).
ence, and in the early 1960s, the share Conclusions It is necessary to differentiate between
of the organised sector in total milk For any microeconomic model, it is nec- reasons and justification/excuses, which
procurement was only 3.7%. By the mid- essary to have clarity about whether one can be revealed only through insightful,
1990s, it reached 12% (Sharma et al should use a ratio model or a difference evolutionary socio-economic investiga-
2002). By 2008, the share of organised model. People appear to use the two tion. Advancement in the field of tech-
milk production was 23.39%, and by models discriminately and appropriately. nology needs to be accompanied by an
2015, it was 26.26%. The pattern of this Formal economics needs to realise this, equally intensive, scientific, unbiased and
32 FEBRUARY 22, 2020 vol lV no 8 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
PERSPECTIVES
insightful research in peoples’ behaviour Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Ap- Seminar, Vol 564, August, viewed on 28 July
plications, viewed on 14 July 2019, https:// 2019, http://www.india-seminar.com/2006/
for a socially important policy to be suc- isaaa.org/resources/publications/briefs/49/ 564/564_s_r_ramdas_&_n_s_ghotge.htm# top.
cessfully implemented over a large pop- default.asp. Roy, Deb R (1997): “Communal Grazing Lands and
Koshy, J (2011): “How India Became a Bt Cotton Their Importance in India and Some Other
ulation like ours. Country,” Livemint, 27 July, viewed on 28 July Asian Countries,” Session 18, Communal Grazing
2019, https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/ NZID- Lands, International Grassland Congress,
je22uiFUoskfs9FD5M/How-India-became-a- Winnipeg, Manitoba.
References Bt-Cotton-country.html. Sainath, P (2012): “Cattle Class: Native vs Exotic,”
Bayani A, D Tiwade, A Dongre, A Dongre, R Phatak Kumarnath, K (2016): “Bt Cotton: How It Flowered Hindu, 6 January, viewed on 28 July 2019,
and M Watve (2016): “Assessment of Crop and Is Losing Lustre Now,” Hindu BusinessLine, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/col-
Damage by Protected Wild Mammalian Herbi- 22 March, viewed on 28 July 2019, https:// umns/sainath/Cattle-class-native-vs-exotic/
vores on the Western Boundary of Tadoba- www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/ag- article13355009.ece.
Andhari Tiger Reserve (TATR), Central India,” ri-business/bt-cotton-how-it-flowered-and-is-
losing-lustre-now/article8386090.ece. Samuelson, P and W Nordhaus (2001): Microeco-
PLOS One, 19 April, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.
nomics (17th edition), Boston: McGraw-Hill.
0153854. Mazoomdaar, J (2013): “The Desi Cow: Almost Ex-
tinct,” Tehelka, Vol 10, No 5, viewed on 28 July Sharma, V, R V Singh, S Staal and C Delgado
Chako, C T (1994): “Development of Sunandhini
Cattle in India,” World Animal Review, Food 2019, http://old.tehelka.com/the-desi-cow-al- (2002): “Critical Issues for Poor People in the
and Agricultural Organization of the United most-extinct/. Indian Dairy Sector on the Threshold of a New
Nations, viewed on 14 July 2019, http://www. McNamara, J M and A I Houston (1986): “The Com- Era,” June: Phase I of an IFPRI–FAO project en-
fao.org/docrep/t4650t/t4650t0v.htm. mon Currency for Behavioural Decisions,” titled “Livestock Industrialisation, Trade and
American Naturalist, Vol 127, No 3, pp 358–78. Social-Health-Environment Impacts in Devel-
DAHD (2012): “19th Livestock Census 2012: All
Misra, S S (2007): “Punjab’s Spiritual Farming,” oping Countries,” viewed on 3 January 2017,
India Report,” Department of Animal Hus-
bandry Dairying and Fisheries, Ministry of Ag- Down to Earth, 30 November, viewed on 28 http://www.fao.org/wairdocs/LEAD/X6115E/
riculture, Government of India, New Delhi, July 2019, https://www.downtoearth.org.in/ x6115e0b.htm.
viewed on 14 July 2019, http://dahd.nic.in/ coverage/punjabs-spiritual-farming-6918. Smith, E A and B Winterhalder (1992): “Natural
sites/default/filess/ Livestock%20%205_0.pdf. NDDB (2015): “Operation Flood,” National Dairy Selection and Decision Making: Some Funda-
— (2013): “Breeding Survey Book: Estimated Development Board, viewed on 29 December mental Principles,” Evolutionary Ecology and
Livestock Population Breed-wise: Based on 2016, http://www.nddb.org/about/genesis/flood. Human Behavior, E A Smith (ed), New York: Al-
Breed Survey 2013,” Animal Husbandry Statis- Palekar, S (2007): The Techniques of Spiritual Farm- dine de Gruyter, pp 25–60.
tics Division, Government of India, New Delhi. ing, Amaravati, Maharashtra: Vedic Books. Statista (2019): “Cotton Production by Country
Directorate of Economics and Statistics (2014): Parker, G A and J M Smith (1990): “Optimality The- Worldwide in 2017/2018,” viewed on 5 July 2019,
“Agricultural Statistics at a Glance (various ory in Evolutionary Biology,” Nature, Vol 348, https://www.statista.com/statistics/263055/
issues),” Department of Agriculture and Coop- 1 November, pp 27–33, doi: 10.1038/348027a0. cotton-production-worldwide-by-top-countries.
eration, Ministry of Agriculture, Government Pingali, P L (2012): “Green Revolution: Impacts, Trading Economics (2016): “Agricultural Irrigated
of India, New Delhi, viewed on 14 July 2019, Limits and the Path Ahead,” Proceedings of the Land (% of Total Agricultural Land) in India,”
https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/PDF/Agricultural- National Academy of Sciences of the United States viewed on 5 January 2017, http://www.trading-
Statistics-At-Glance2014.pdf. of America, Vol 109, No 31, July, pp 12302–08. economics.com/india/agricultural-irrigated-
Heimpel, G E, J A Rosenheim and M Mangel PoliticalTruth (2016): “Organic Farming: India land-percent-of-total-agricultural-land-wb-da-
(1996): “Egg Limitation, Host Quality and Dy- World’s Third Highest Producer of Organic ta.html.
namic Behaviour by a Parasitoid in the Field,” Products,” 13 February, viewed on 28 July 2019, Watve, M, A Bayani and S Ghosh (2016): “Crop
Ecology, Vol 77, No 8, pp 2410–20. https://politicaltruth.wordpress.com/2016/02/. Damage by Wild Herbivores: Insights Obtained
ISAAA (2014): “Global Status of Commercialised Ramdas, S R and N S Ghotge (2006): “India’s Live- from Optimisation Models,” Current Science,
Biotech/GM Crops: 2014,” Brief 49, International stock Economy: The Forsaken Dry Lands,” Vol 111, No 5, pp 861–67.