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DAILY ISRAEL WAR UPDATE: INFORMATION CURRENT AS OF 1300 (GMT)

Sibylline will produce a single daily Israel-Hamas war update with information current as of 1300hrs
(GMT) from Monday to Friday. We will supplement this report with ad-hoc alerting and online
webinars. If you are not yet fully subscribed to these updates, please email clients@sibylline.co.uk
to register. Our out-of-hours team will continue to cover weekend developments of major
significance.

For further analysis and context, see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update 1300 GMT – 20 November
2023 and Sibylline Special Report – Israel-Hamas – 25 October 2023. For the latest webinar recording,
see Briefing Series Israel-Hamas War – 20 November 2023; and for additional data analytics see
Global Demonstrations Dashboard and Israel-Hamas War Data Dashboard.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claims to have successfully encircled Jabalia. It also reports that
over 250 airstrikes targeted Gaza in an apparent uptick in operations. In addition, the IDF has
introduced a plan to allow the return of Israeli residents to population centres which are located more
than 2.5 miles (4km) from Gaza.
• A ceasefire and hostage swap agreement between Israel and Hamas continues to progress with
Qatari and Hamas officials signalling that a deal is close; an announcement in the next 24-48 hours
is a realistic possibility.
• The gradual intensification of hostilities between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah and/or affiliated
militants along the Israel-Lebanon border continues; Israel is increasing the frequency of its strikes
hitting deeper into Lebanon compared to the previous week.

MILITARY AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

• The IDF claims to have successfully encircled Jabalia. It also reports that more than 250
targets were struck by the Israeli Air Force (IAF), reflecting an uptick in operations over the
past 24 hours. The IDF has also continued to hold its position around the Indonesian Hospital in Beit
Lahia. It is currently unclear whether the IDF will withdraw troops or continue to hold captured
positions in the event of a ceasefire. The IDF continues to implement temporary tactical suspensions
of military activities on an almost daily basis. The latest tactical pause took place between 1000hrs
and 1400hrs (local time) on 21 November in the Tal al-Sultan neighbourhood, west of Rafah.
• The IDF announced that it will approve the return of citizens to population centres which are
located 2.5 miles (4km) or further from Gaza in the coming days. The plan, set out by the IDF
Home Front Command, likely reflects the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire. Any failure in the
negotiations or a cessation of the yet-to-be-confirmed ceasefire will likely prompt a reassessment of
this plan.
• IDF operations in the West Bank continue on trend, while settler violence targeting Palestinian
communities continues to increase gradually. Of note, unconfirmed reports claim that settlers
disguised as IDF troops raided the home of a journalist in al-Rakeez (Hebron governorate). Repeated
clashes between settlers and Palestinian communities in the West Bank are likely to sustain elevated
ethno-religious tensions and security risks in the area.

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• Cross-border tit-for-tat attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border against IDF positions mirrored
the elevated levels observed in recent days. The IDF continued to conduct strikes against
Lebanese Hizballah and affiliated militant groups and/or infrastructure deeper inside Lebanese
territory compared to the previous week. These strikes and subsequent retaliation from Lebanese
Hizballah and/or affiliated militants are likely to continue in the coming week; any uptick in violence
will raise the risk of misidentification (as well as incidental security threats in southern Lebanon and
northern Israel).
• Additional emergency information:
• To report information about kidnapped IDF soldiers and civilians: 1229
• To receive information about missing civilians: 105
• To receive information about missing IDF soldiers: 1111 (press 5 and then 4)
• Home Front Command telephone service centre: 104 (this service provides information
about civil defence guidelines, as well as information about traffic and roadblocks along
various routes and instructions from government ministries, among other entities)
• For updated information on the Rafah border crossing issued by the Gaza Borders and
Crossings Authority, click here

Figure 1: The situation in Israel and the Palestinian Territories at the time of writing

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POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Ceasefire and hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas have continued over
the past 24 hours, with Hamas representatives stating that a ceasefire agreement is close. The
deal is likely to include the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a multi-day ceasefire in Gaza
and the release of a limited number of Palestinian prisoners. There is a realistic possibility of an
agreement being announced in the coming days.
• UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for a multi-stakeholder approach to
supporting Gaza after the conflict. Guterres believes that a strengthened Palestinian Authority (PA)
should assume responsibility for Gaza as part of a transition towards a two-state solution. He also
stated that the PA should not be propped up by the IDF, but that it should instead be supported by
the international community. In particular, he has called for engagement by the US and regional Arab
nations, rather than a UN force. However, the prospects for such an arrangement are highly limited.
Israeli President Netanyahu has already claimed that the PA is unfit to govern the strip. Furthermore,
Israel would almost certainly oppose troop deployments by Arab countries, a proposal for which there
is limited evidence of regional support.
• The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza remains operational, with the movement
of aid and people broadly consistent with recent trends. On 21 November, at least 50 aid vehicles,
nine ambulances and two fuel trucks crossed the Rafah border into Gaza. This marks the continuation
of deliveries permitted by the Israeli cabinet on 19 November to support the operations of international
organisations. The limited movement of permitted people out of Gaza also continues, as evidenced
by the movement of some 240 dual nationals into Egypt. The passage of several extremely vulnerable
persons in need of medical support was also permitted (28 premature infants passed into Egypt).
However, despite the continued and substantial decline of medical support within Gaza, the passage
of people with a medical emergency will likely remain highly limited.
• Following talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, representatives of the Organisation of
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and diplomats from other Arab and Islamic States met with Irish
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to discuss the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. As with previous meetings,
the talks represent a symbolic act of solidarity and are unlikely to result in any short-term policy
. ’ opposition to the IDF campaign in Gaza is well known and the state has already
called for a ceasefire. The delegation of Arab and Islamic representatives is due to continue its tour
and will hold talks with UN Security Council (UNSC) members France, Russia, the UK and the US in
the coming days to push for a UNSC resolution-backed ceasefire. However, unanimous action by the
UNSC remains unlikely (the US is likely opposed to a legally binding ceasefire).

FORECAST

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the next 24-48 hours is a realistic possibility.
Qatari mediators and Hamas officials continue to signal that a ceasefire deal is close, while unofficial reports
from Israel confirm that talks are advancing positively. However, the continued silence from the Israeli
government and IDF leadership leaves negotiation prospects open. It is likely that the Israeli government and
IDF leadership will be looking for a deal or development that symbolise a win for their domestic audience.
The current details of the ceasefire suggest the deal is relatively disadvantageous to Israel. During the
ceasefire, which will last several days, a limited number of hostages will be released over a period of time;
Palestinian prisoners in Israel will also be released as part of the deal. As such, it is likely that Israel will try
to delay the confirmation of a ceasefire until further positive developments from an Israeli perspective emerge,
including the conclusion of operations at the al-Shifa hospital. Nevertheless, there remains a realistic
possibility that a ceasefire will be confirmed in the coming 48 hours. However, any such ceasefire will be

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fragile. Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility that dissident factions within Palestinian militant groups in
Gaza will continue to conduct sporadic rocket launches towards Israel regardless of the deal, sustaining
security and bystander risks across the country.

A ceasefire is unlikely to reduce clashes and tit-for-tat strikes between IDF troops and Lebanese
Hizballah and/or affiliated militants. Cross-border clashes are likely to continue gradually increasing in the
coming days. While the sporadic targeting of Israeli population centres remains likely, Lebanese Hizballah is
likely to continue focusing on IDF positions and bases close to the Israel-Lebanon border. This will sustain
the heightened likelihood of rockets being launched across the border, while also raising bystander and
misidentification risks for civilians travelling nearby (in both Lebanon and Israel). There is a realistic possibility
that a ceasefire in Gaza will allow Hamas to co-ordinate with its affiliated militants in Lebanon (as well as
Lebanese Hizballah) in preparation for a break in the ceasefire. As such, there is a realistic possibility of an
uptick in hostilities and/or rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israel when the yet-to-be-confirmed
ceasefire ends. These will further sustain security and bystander risks across Israel (while also elevating the
risk of further escalation) due to likely retaliatory strikes by the IDF.

F’ c p g c P
West Bank will almost certainly continue over the coming 24 hours. IDF operations in the West Bank
show no sign of slowing. They will sustain heightened ethno-religious tensions and risk sparking
confrontations. Intensified armed clashes involving IEDs and IDF drone strikes are likely to continue in
hotspots such as Jennin, Hebron and Tulkarm. Furthermore, a ceasefire in Gaza, if confirmed, is unlikely to
reduce IDF operations in the West Bank, further elevating tensions. The uptick in Israeli settler violence
against Palestinian communities is also likely to continue, further exacerbating these tensions. This will likely
sustain the risk of attacks against Israeli-associated assets and personnel in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

• A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets
outside Israel
• High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli
settlers and/or Palestinian militants
• Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
• Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or
West Bank-based militants to retaliate
• An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an
escalation from Lebanon-based militants
• US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
• Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
• The ongoing IDF ground operation into Gaza expands beyond the northern area of the enclave

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Figure 2: A map of areas to be evacuated and IDF ground operations in Gaza, as well as the ‘ ’
the last 24 hours

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Figure 3: A map highlighting the time available to find shelter in the event of a rocket launch from Gaza and/or Lebanon

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Figure 4: A map of Tel Aviv showing the locations and numbers of operational shelters; for an interactive map with shelter
addresses and contact information, please click here

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