Generation availability assessment of wind farms
F. Castro Sayas
R.N.Allan
Indexing terms: Wind farms, Reliability, Probabilistic model, Analytical technique, Practical application
-
Abstract: Wind generation is one of the most
successful sources of renewable energy for the
production of electrical energy. As the nurnber of
installations connected into existing networks
grows rapidly worldwide there is a need to study
the reliability of these energy sources and assess
their effects on the system. However, the technical
characteristics of wind generation make existing
conventional generation models not (directly
applicable. A new probabilistic model of a wind
farm to be used in reliability studies is prcsented.
This model considers the stochastic nal ure of
wind, the failure and repair processes of the wind
turbines under different wind regimes, and the
output cliaracteri,stics of the wind turbine in
detail. Spatial winid speed correlation and waking
effects can also be considered. The model can be
used with one or several types of wind turbines.
Analytical techniques are used. A practical
application of the models is also included.
- (LOEE). Methods based on the load modification tech-
1 lntroduiction
The technologies for the generation of electrilcal energy
from renewable energy sources have evolved in recent
years from small experimental plants to a real option
for the utilities to prloduce significant amounts of elec-
tric power. The high cost of energy derived from fossil
and nuclear fuels, environmental issues and a protec-
tive legal framework encouraging the use of renewable
sources of energy in many countries have resulted in
the number of installations commissioned every year
worldwide increasing very rapidly. Wind has proved to
be one of the most successful of all available sources of
renewable energy (wind, solar, wave, tidal, ...) offering
relatively high capacities, with generation costs that are
becoming Icompetit ive with conventional energy
sources. In the UK the installed wind capacity grew
from 8MW in 1990 to 170.5MW in 1994 [J.J. During
the same period in Germany it soared from 60MW to
632.2MW. The estimated installed wind capacity
worldwide is presently about 4000 MW. However,
because of their intermittent nature they cannot replace
conventional generation and are really energy-replace-
ment rather than capacity-replacement sources 121. As
- networks. Conventional generators will sell less energy
0IEE, 1996
ZEE Proceedings online no. 19960488
Paper received 2nd October 1995
The authors are with the Manchester Centre for Electrical Energy,
URIZIST, Mdnch1:ster M60 lQD, UK
IEE Proc.-Gener. Trunsm. nistrih., Vol. 143, No. 5 . September IY96
wind power plants witlh higher installed capacities are
incorporated into existing power systems, it is becoming
important to study the reliability of these generation
systems and assess the effects that they will have on the
entire system and its reliability.
Earlier studies of the reliability impact of unconven-
tional energy sources have dealt with the problem only
at the generation level (hierarchical level 1, HL1 [3]).
The first attempts to include unconventional energy
sources in reliability analysis of the generating system
used the loss-of-load approach. A method which
included frequency and duration concepts is presented
in [4] for wind energy conversion systems. The method
presented in [4] is enhanced to consider different types
of units within the same wind farm 15, 61 and average
wind velocity spatial correlation [6]. Another approach
using the cumulant method including the failure and
repair characteristics of the wind turbines is illustrated
in [7].Correlation between load and the power output
of unconventional units is taken into account in [SI.
The latest publications use a loss-of-energy approach
nique were developed in [2, 91 with economic assess-
ment included in [:’]. None of these previous
approaches consider exlplicit rnodelling of all the factors
affecting the wind farm, and instead treat the farm as a
single entity. The effect of the individual components
and factors are therefore masked.
This paper overcomes this weakness by introducing a
wind farm model for reliability studies that can take
into account the stochastic nature of wind, the failure
and repair processes of the wind turbines, their output
curves, wind speed spatial correlation and wake effects
using reliability analysis based on analytical techniques.
This model produces re:sults that can not only be easily
integrated with available models of the distribution net-
work but can also be used for standard generation level
(HLI) studies allowing and .including a full reliability
assessment of the system.
Wind farms are generally connected to medium-low
voltage distribution networks and it is not necessary for
the wind farm owner to be the owner of the interfacing
network. The transmisslion network and conventional
generators will be affected as the combined installed
capacity of wind farms in the distribution network
increases to significant levels. The load profiles seen at
the bulk supply points will change and so will the
power flows in both the transmission and distribution
and might be forced to operate outside optimum points
because of the necessary load1 regulation action needed
to compensate for the rmdom wind speed fluctuations.
Therefore up to five different parties can be identified
as being affected by the inclusion of wind generation in
507
distribution networks; the wind farm owner, the inter- conventional units, cannot occur in the case of wind
facing distribution network, the customers, the trans- turbines because it would require different wind speeds
mission network and the conventional generators. driving the two turbines. However, this state would
Their perspectives are different and so can their inter- appear if statistical independence is assumed and the
ests and the benefits they derive from wind energy. individual capacity output tables are convolved. This is
Hence the information required by each of the parties a very simple example. In practice there are other
involved is different. effects that should be considered such as wake effects,
This paper focuses on the wind farms perspective spatial wind speed correlation, etc. In reality, identical
looking from inside the wind farm into the network. wind turbines can produce slightly different outputs
The results obtained are easily integrated into existing and these effects are considered in Section 5.
reliability assessment techniques allowing further stud-
ies to include the network. In this paper, however, the Table 1 Comparison between the convolution of capac-
network and load are not included: study results are ity outage tables for t w o conventional and wind gener-
valid up to the wind farm tee-point connection. Secu- ated machines
rity domain aspects such as voltage dips, voltage flicker
Combined output states example
and induction engine self-excita tion are not considered.
It is important to recognise that even when the Conventional generation Wind generation
impact at the HL1 or hierarchical level 2 (HL2) [3] are
Output States (9) Output States ( 12)
required, the input data needed will be that derived
from studies at the distribution level. Therefore the 2.0 uu 2.0 UUF
results given by the models described in this paper form 1.5 UR, RU -
the primary set of indices needed by all the parties 1.o UD, DU, RR 1.0 UDF, DUF, UUM
involved in order to identify the effect of wind genera-
0.5 RD, DR 0.5 UDM, DUM
tion on their activities.
0.0 DD 0.0 DDF, DDM, UUN,
2 Wind generation reliability modelling UDN, DUN, DDN
U: u p U: u p M: half rated speed
The total output of a wind farm is obtained by aggre- R: derated D:d o w n N: unsuitable speed
gating the individual output of each turbine. The usual D: d o w n F: full rated speed
approach to find the combined effect of many genera-
tors operating in parallel using probabilistic analytical Determination of the statistical output characteristics
techniques is the convolution of their individual capac- of a wind farm for reliability analysis requires the
ity outage probability tables [ 10, 31. However. this tech- simultaneous consideration of all wind turbines. There-
nique is not valid when wind generators are considered. fore a new wind farm generation model is needed
The problem is that the output of each wind turbine is which represents the stochastic characteristics of all
dependent on a common source: the wind. The statisti- processes involved. This can be accomplished by merg-
cal independence between the different generation out- ing a wind model and a wind turbine model.
put states is an underlying assumption in the
convolution of capacity outage probability tables. 3 Wind model
Therefore it is not possible to calculate the wind farm
capacity table by convolving the output table of each 3. I Modelling concepts
wind turbine. The wind [arm has to be considered in its Wind speed is a continuous physical phenomenon that
entirety. evolves randomly in time and space. A random varia-
This characteristic is shown in the following simple ble can be associated with each value of time. A sto-
example. The output states obtained from the convolu- chastic process is considered to be a model of a system
tion of capacity tables from two identical conventional which develops randomly in time according to probabi-
generators are compared with those obtained when two listic laws [ I I]. Thus, wind speed is a stochastic process
identical wind turbines are considered. In order to per- with a continuous state space (wind speed values) and
form the comparison, the conventional and wind gener- continuous parameter space (time). This type of proc-
ators are assumed to have the same individual output ess can be modelled approximately as a discrete state
levels. In the case of conventional generation, three space and continuous parameter state process.
generation levels are considered for each unit: full, der-
ated and out-of-service, corresponding to 1. 0.5 and
0p.u. output, respectively. For wind generation the tur-
bines are considered to be operational or out of service.
The wind has three speed levels each creating the same iJ-1 112 p3 PJ 111'1
individual wind turbine output levels ( I , 0.5 and Opu) Fig, 1 Birth ond &utI/ ~Mrirhoc.tlruiri
h , : transition ratc from state / to statc i+ I ; p, : transition from state 1 to
as for the conventional generators. The resulting com- state 1- 1
bined output states and their corresponding generation
states are shown in Table 1.
Five output states result from convolution of the Many studies have reported statistical tests on wind
conventional generators' capacity tables. However speeds using different probability distributions (Wei-
there are only four combined output states in the bull, Rayleigh, x2,...) It is generally accepted that the
equivalent wind generation case. The I .5pu combined Weibull distribution adequately represents the wind
output state with conventional generation is not possi- speed probability distribution [12-141 for most sam-
ble when wind generation is considered since it would pling times. This is all that is required to estimate the
require one unit generating at full output and the other wind farms' expected output. For reliability analysis,
at half output. This situation, perfectly possible for however, the probability and frequency distributions of
508 IE% Proc.-Gener. Trcinsrri. Dhtrih., Vol. 143, No 5, Septrmhet 1996
 the wind speed stochastic process are also required.
Therefore a new wind model is needed to reflect not
only the probability but also the frequency and dura-
tion characteristics OF wind speed.
'The proposed model to represent wind speed is a
birth and death Markov chain (Fig. 1) [15, 161 with a
finite number of states. The following assumptions are
made in this model:
( 0 ) The annual wind speed values in a period (e.g.
annual, sea~~onal, etc.) are represented by a set of N
wind speed levels or wind speed states. State 1 corre-
sponds to tlhe lowest speed range and state N to the
highest.
(h) The wind speed model is statistically stationary.
The stochasl.ic behaviour of the wind speed must be the
same at all points of time irrespective of the point of
time being considered, i.e. the probability of making a
transition from one given stale to another is the same
(slationary) a t all times in the past and future (mean
and variance do noi~depend on the choice of a time
origin). Wind speed is not strictly a stationary process
but the effect of the nonstationarity can often be
neglected as long as there is no trend in the data over
the period of time considered so that the process c m be
treated as wide-sense stationary [I 71.
(c) The distribution of residence times in a given state
of the birth and death process is exponential. I t is not
necessary, however, for the wind speed discretised
model to follow this distribution. Analytical techniques
only calculate long term average values. It can be
shown [18, 191 that the exponential distribution pro-
duces these values regardless of the residence time dis-
tribution th,at the system is actually follownig. Using
the actual statistical distribution of duration is only
important m7hen evaluating the time-dependent charac-
teristics of the stochastic process.
(d) The probability of a transition from a given wind
speed state to another state is directly proportional to
the long-term average (i.e. quiescent or stmdy state)
probability of existence of the new state.
(e) Transitions between wind speed states occur inde-
pendently of transitions between wind turbines states.
It should be noted that the techniques used to account
for failure bunching do not imply dependence between
the failures of wind turbines. Although the wind t UT-
bines may reside within a common environment which
affects the failure rates of the wind turbines, the actual
failure process of overlapping outages sti I1 assumes
wind turbine failures to be independent. There is no
suggestion therefore that the process is a common
mode or dependent failure, only that the independent
failure rates are enhanced because of the common envi-
ronment.
v> From a given wind speed state, only the case of
transitions to immediately adjacent (lower and higher
speed) states are considered although the mlodels pro-
posed later could treat equally the case of transitions
from one state to any other state.
3.2 Wind mode/ parameter estimation
The wind speed range of interest is divided into a finite
number of states that do not necessarily have to be
equally spa'ced. This is an advantage because of the
nonlinear characteristic of the turbine output curve
described in Section 4. The parameters of the wind
model are c:alculatetl from a wind speed rec:ord. Wind
speed is usually sampled at regular intervals. Available
data is norinally values of wind speed observations
averaged over ten minute periods. The data that needs
to be extracted from the sample record to calculate the
model pararnctcrs are: (i) the number of transitions
from state i to i -c 1; and (ii) the duration of the resi-
dence tiinc In a stale before going to a different state.
The noncoi-rtinuoits sampling process and the average
values obtained for each observation mean that some
transitions From recorded data could occur between
nonadjacent wind speed states. This is an important
consideration because wind speeds do not increase or
decrease instantaneously, but change continuously
albeit over very short periods of time. Therefore the
speeds will encounter all! intermediate states even if not
monitored. If this is the case., the duration of the inter-
mediate states is estimated by a linear proportion of
the sampling time.
The wind model parameters can then be calculated
using two main methods depending on the adequacy of
the exponential distribution to represent the residence
t iines .
3.2.1 Wind speed duration follows an expo-
nential distribution: The states are recurrent in a
finite state. irreducible Markov chain. The probability
that the process returnis to any state an infinite number
of times is unity. Frorn the law of large numbers, the
proportion of time spent in a state when the number of
returns to that state tends to infinity approaches the
reciprocal of the mean residence time. This time is
equal to the parameter of the exponential distribution.
The transition rate between any two states can then be
calculated as
where N , = number of transitions from state i to state
, j 3and Dji = duration of state i before going to state .j.
Therefore to make a good parameter estimation it is
necessary that the numlber of interstate transitions is as
large as possible.
The exponential distribution gives a rough approxi-
mation to the duratioii of wind speed runs when sam-
pling intervals of one hour are used [20]. Studies were
carried out to check the validity of exponential resi-
dence times in a given discretised wind speed range
with real data extracte'd from real wind farm sites with
dirferent sampling times. Assuming an exponential resi-
dence time in each of the states, the parameters of the
birth and death process were calculated. The model
was solved to obtain the predicted probability and fre-
quency distributions. These were compared with the
ones obtained from the sample which, by expanding for
several years, is considered representative of the long-
term wind behaviour. This comparison is shown in
Table 2 from which ii can be seen that the statistical
distributions predicted from the model are quite differ-
ent from those obtained from the wind sample. Hence
this calculation method cannot be used since the wind
speed runs show a poor fit .with sample data when an
exponential residence time is used.
3.2.2 Wind speed duration follows an
unknown distribution. Sample adjustment:
The second calculation method does not require that
the residence time of the stochastic process follows an
exponential distribution. It generates a finite state
Markov chain with exponentially distributed residence
 Table 2 Wind speed model statistical distributions assuming exponential residence times

Exponential Unknown distribution Sample Prediction

Speed distribution
Wind range
state
(m/s) % >Pi A, F, Probability Freq’ Probability Freq‘
(occ./year)
(occ./year) (occ./yea r) (occ./yea r) (occ./yea r) (occ./year)
1 0-5 4 162 - 3 805 - 0.305800 1372 0.029538 1104
2 5-6 30 635 27 871 13 474 13224 0.1 13300 5715 0.044123 1104
3 6-7 31 271 29 231 13620 13980 0.108500 5865 0.046255 2675
4 7-8 32 646 30 809 13776 15 159 0.100300 5500 0.046962 2922
6 9-10 35 367 33 959 14711 16939 0.070540 4363 0.047691 3272
7 10-11 35 922 35019 14 872 17 519 0.0581 30 3665 0.048181 3405
8 11-12 36 97 1 36 797 15 578 18 147 0.047260 3040 0.047051 3522
9 12-13 35 009 37 440 15072 18 123 0.0351 50 2433 0.046479 3681
10 13-25 39 066 71 783 139 6 303 0.025960 1774 0.226770 372 1
11 25 - 27 51 195 32 969 10229 23 868 0.049 100 500.7 0.026897 2447
12 27-30 18724 28 932 7 165 15533 0.000188 8.395 0.047626 1156
13 30-35 - 31 312 - 28 608 0.000023 0.7901 0.028510 543.9

Table 3 Results for the IEEE-RTS load model using a Markov chain

Individual State Cumulative State

Frequency Frequency
Frequency Duration (occ./year)
State Load Probability Probability (occ./year)
(occ./year) (year)
to lower states t o higher states
~

1 100.0 2.175 x 7.000 3.107 x 2.175 x 7.000 0.000

2 90.0 4.327 x IO-’ 8.800 x 10’ 4.917 x 4.544 x 10-2 8.100 x IO’ 7.000
3 80.0 1.567 x IO-’ 2.980 x IO2 5.257 x IO4 2.021 x IO-’ 2.170 x IO2 8.100 x IO’
4 70.0 2.178 x IO-’ 5.360 x IO2 4.064 x IO“ 4.199 x IO-’ 3.190 x IO2 2.170 x IO2
5 60.0 2.020 x IO-’ 7.090 x IO2 2.849 10-4 6.219 x IO-’ 3.900 x IO2 3.190 x IO2
6 50.0 2.335 x IO-’ 6.110 x IO2 3.819 x 8.553 x IO-’ 2.210 x 102 3.900 x IO2
7 40.0 1.357 x 10-1 2.480 x IO2 5.472 x 10-4 9.910 x 10-1 2.700 x IO’ 2.210 x 102
8 30.0 9.043 10-3 2.700 x IO’ 3.349 x 10-4 1.000 0.000 2.700 x IO’
9 20.0 0.000 0.000 - 1.000 0.000 0.000
10 10.0 0.000 0.000 - 1.000 0.000 0.000

times that replicate perfectly the probability and fre-
quency distributions found in the sample. The parame-
ters are calculated from the principle of frequency
balance between any two states. The transition rates
are calculated as
where, Pi = state probability given by
be calculated. However, they should be generated from
a wind speed record that is long enough to ensure that
the generated wind model is indicative of the long term
conditions found at the particular site of study. It
should be noted that this model can also be used for
the same conditions to reproduce the statistical charac-
teristics of the load. The results obtained for the load
as specified in the 1EEE-RTS using ten load states are
shown in Table 3.

4 Wind turbine model

The wind turbine model defines the output characteris-

Fy = frequency of transitions between state i and s t a t e j
and N = total number of states.
Therefore the main advantage of this model is that it
represents exactly the real characteristics of the wind
speed found at a particular site with a representation
suitable for conventional reliability analysis. Hence
regardless of the sampling time, if the wind speed range
to be considered is discretised into a finite number of
states, it is always possible to find a finite birth and
death process with the same number of states that
reproduces exactly the probability and frequency distri-
butions of the sample.
This model requires a small number of parameters to
510
tics of the wind turbine as well as its failure and repair
processes.
The wind turbine output curve determines the power
output of the machine for corresponding wind speed
levels. The wind turbines can be divided into two major
types according to the type of output control: pitch or
stall regulated wind turbines (Fig. 2). Both can be rep-
resented by the proposed wind turbine model. The
reactive power characteristic of the generator can also
be defined in the same way although it is frequently
specified as a percentage of the output active power
since in most cases the power factor is corrected by
means of capacitor banks or SVAR compensators.
IEE Proc-Gener. Trnnsm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 5. September 1996

~~~
I I
cut-in rated cut-out
Fig.2 Typical output curve for pitch and Atall controlled wind turbines
-~ pitch control
- _ _ stall control
The failure and repair rates of the individual wind
turbines should be taken into account to callculate the
expected wind farm output. The structural safety of the
tower and blades is specified by the manufacturer up to
a certain wind speed value called the survival wind
speed. The failure rate of the turbines as wind speed
increases also increases [21-23]. Failures under extreme
wind speeds are norrnally of a catastrophic nature such
as cracking of the tower and blades. These ,Ire expen-
sive, lengthy and costly failures with a low probability
but whose expected Jfrequency should be carefully con-
sidered. Therefore two major wind speed ranges can be
distinguished. A range within the design wind speeds
and another above it comprising extreme wind speeds.
Consequently, different sets of failure and repair rates
are considered within each range.
The wind turbine is modelled as a binary ‘state com-
ponent, i.e. the machine is considered fully capable of
giving any output within its power curve limits (up) or
it is out of service (down). The failures of different
wind turbines are considered independent. Therefore
the resulting state transition diagram for a given
number of lurbines is equal to that obtained when a
system with the same number of independent compo-
nents is considered (Fig. 3 shows the diagram for two
independent components).
ll..
U It is always theoretically possible to have different
Fig.3 State riiugrum j b r twu hinury wiird lurbirres
Preventive maintenance in conventional ,generation
units usually tend to be lengthy because of thie inherent
complexity ‘of the systems involved. Wind generators
IEE Proc.-Gener. Trunsm. DiAtrib., Vol. 143, No. 5, September 1996
on the other hand are relatively simple machines and
so the maintenance time is much less than that of con-
ventional units. The most common machine used for
wind generation is the induction generator which is a
very reliable and robust electrical machine. As a result
wind units are usually left unattended for long periods
of time. It is also possible to further minimise the
impact of maintenance by making it coincident with
periods of low winds. With these considerations it
seems that preventive maintenance when using wind
generation has a significantly smaller impact than when
using conventional generation and therefore it is not
- included in the models.
wind
speed
5 Wind farm model
The wind farm model comprises the wind model and
the wind turbine model. For each of the wind states
considered, the associated wind turbines’ failure and
repair processes are represented. States with the same
wind turbines contingency are connected by the wind
model transition rates. The resulting diagram can be
viewed as a set of layers (wind turbines states) con-
nected by the wind model transition rates (Fig. 4 for
two wind states, I and 11). For each wind farm state,
the number of wind turbines in service is known, as is
the corresponding wind speed level. Therefore it is
straightforward to determine the output of each wind
turbine by using the output curves. The total wind
farm output for eachi specified wind farm state is
obtained by adding the output of all wind turbines
while in that state. This; solves the problem of statistical
dependence to calculate the wind farm output.
down /
, /
down .I
down down
down
/’
,
UP ,
down
W’
Fig.4 Multi-layered windfirm state diagram for two wind turbinesfor
two wind stutes I und II
In general the transition rates for all states in each
wind speed layer could be different although it seems
realistic to consider only two sets of values, one for
normal and the other fix extreme wind speeds as stated
before. The impact of failures in the elements connect-
ing the different wind turbines inside the wind farm is
neglected.
The main advantages of this model are:
The addition of more wind state levels to increase the
precision of power out put and energy calculations is
simple.
More turbines can be easily added to the wind farm.
9
sets of transition rates for each wind state.
States with different but non-zero output are not
directly connected, so that the cumulation of identical
output capacity states is simple.
511
 The model can be combined with existing reliability
models of the distribution network to evaluate the
overall impact of the wind farm.
The effect of increased repair time necessary to
restore damaged parts under extreme wind conditions
can be masked by the rapid transition to normal wind
speed levels with normal repair times. Consider Mods1
A shown in Fig. 5 for a one-turbine system and four
wind levels. This is the same model as the one shown in
Fig. 4 using a flat representation. The states belonging
to each wind layer can be identified by having the same
capital Roman number. If the system is in state 4 (Up-
IV) and severe damage occurs, it goes to state 8
(Down-IV). The large restoration time needed to repair
severe damage would not be taken into account if the
system transits to state 7 (Down-111) due to a wind
change. This is a minor damage zone and the repair
time in such states corresponds to minor damage.
Therefore the severe damage effect is not reflected
correctly.
I
down
__..-
6 I
I I
I
\ minor damage
_ _ ___---____-_--
\ -
hg.5 Model A for a 1vind.furm c?f m e turbine and j&r wind levels
This shortcoming can be overcome at the expense of
increased complexity and an enormous number of
states by using the alternative Model B shown in
Fig. 6. In this model any failure under extreme wind
speed conditions is considered to create a separate
damage state. Separating these severe damage states in
this way prevents a change in the wind making the sys-
tem transit to minor damage state. Only the repair of
the severe fault allows the system to return to the nor-
mal damage states region. Therefore a new transition
rate for the repair of severe damage is needed. Differ-
ent repair rates for severe damage can also be consid-
ered. However, correlation between the repair time and
the duration times of severe wind speeds and its recog-
nition would be very difficult. Therefore it is more rea-
sonable to consider a repair time for minor and one for
severe damage, irrespective of the wind speed regimes.
I
1
I
I I
1 1 1
minor damage
'\.-----__________-____
/' '\ ,
,
/
Fig. 6 Model B j b r U wind,furm of one turbine andfour ~iitidlevels
512
The extended model also prevents unrealistic traiisi-
tions from the ininor damage states to the severe dam-
aged states which would create pessimistic results since
it would have the effect of increasing the probability of
the severe damage states.
Some cases were evaluated to compare the above
models. Consider an example of one wind turbine and
four wind levels. The input parameters for the wind
speed transition rates and the wind turbines failure
rates are shown in Tables 4 and 5, respectively. The
results are shown in Table 6 and are typical of the
results obtained in other cases analysed. The differ-
ences between the two models are small (for example,
the frequency, of severe damage, 0.23Xflyr given by the
simpler model and 0.236flyr given by the extended
model). Model A tends to give slightly more pessimistic
results due to the prevailing effect of transitions from
minor damage states to severe damage states over the
opposite direction transitions.
Table 4 Wind speed transition rates in occ/yr
Wind speed model transition rates
= 200 ~ 1 1 1=
11400
1 ~ l l I / l V= 10
hll/l = 20 ~ 1= 300
11,11 ~ l v , l l l= 500
Table 5 Wind turbine model transition rates
I Wind speed regime
I / Normal Extreme
1 '\ I
I
_ _ _ _ _ /'
-/ \ Failure rate (occ./year) 4 24
minor&severe Repair rate (occ./year) 90 24
damage ~~~~ ~~
Another important aspect as the number of wind tur-
bines is increased is the number of states that result.
The gain in theoretical precision from Model B may be
a disadvantage in practical situations. If the number of
states is very large, many states will have probabilities
that could differ by several orders of magnitude. The
ill-conditioning of the problem will be degraded and
the computed values will be subject to large precision
errors. Therefore the increased complexity and small
differences expected in real cases indicates that Model
A (Fig. 5) should be used for these studies.
If a wind turbine is exposed to the turbulent air wake
of another turbine, the amount of power that can be
extracted is less than that if it was exposed to free air
flow. This effect is minimised for a carefully laid out
wind farm . However if the wind has significant varia-
tions in direction. this effect might be significant for
those occasions when the hubs turn to face particular
wind directions. To consider this effect, a correction
I
-.
...
I
I I severe damage I
\
IEE Pro(.-GenPr Tvanrm. Distrih , Vol. 143, No. 5, September 1996
 Tablle 6 Results obtained with the two models
Model A Model B
-
State Probability Frequency Duration State Probability Frequency Duration
(occ./year) (years) (occ./year) (years)
___-
I 0.038863 7.928 0.004902 1 0.038608 7.882 0.004902
2 0.388366 164.667 0.002358 2 0.385703 1163.538 0.002358
3 0.517541 162.508 0.003185 3 0.513962 1161.384 (0.003185
4 0.009919 5.198 0.001908 4 0.009854 5.163 0.001908
5 0.00 1787 0.518 0.003448 5 0.001712 0.496 0.003448
6 0.018138 9.250 0.001961 6 0.017095 8.719 0.001961
7 0.024465 9.786 0.002500 7 0.022778 9.1 11 0.002500
8 0.000921 0.483 0.001908 8 0.000435 0.228 0.001908
9 0.000331 0.0741 0.004464
10 0.003706 1.646 0.002252
11 0.005265 1.758 0.002994
12 0.000552 0.289 0.001908

Zero output states Zero output states

1,4,5,6,7,8 0.094093 16.566 0.005680 1,4,5,6,7,8,9, 0.100345 16.452 0.006099
10,11,12
Nonzero output states Nonzero output states
23 0.905907 16.566 0.054684 23 0.899655 16.452 0.054681
Severe damage frequency Severe damage frequency
443 0.009919 x 24 = 0.238 9,10,11,12 0.236
Minor damage Minor damage
0.041585
5,6,7 0.044389 4.240 0.010470
--3.970 0.010474

factor in the power generated is applied to I hose wind
turbines more likely to experience this effect. The possi-
bility that ,I waked turbine can extract more power
when the waking turbine is out of service i:; neglected
for the same reasons given above regarding mainte-
nance and repair times.
Different types of wind turbines having different out-
put curves and/or failure and repair characteristics are
treated as different components in the layers. In this
way it is simple to add the effects of spatial (correlation
or waked effects as new turbines (components) with
different output curves and/or failure and repair
parameters.
I 11 Ill IV
IEE Proc -Gene? Trrmsm Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 5, S~p.ptrmherI996
6 Solution of the wind farm model
Solution of the wind farm model involves calculation
of the probability ancl frequency of each state in the
system.
The limiting state probabilities are given by the equa-
tion a P = a, where P is the stochastic transitional
probability (STP) matrix 1191 of the system and cx the
state probability vector. It follows that a(P-I) = 0
where I is the identity matrix. The P-I matrix is not
linearly independent, another equation is needed saying
that the sum of problabilities is one (PZ'matrix).Two
problems arise in solving the proposed wind farm
model as the number of wind turbines and/or wind
states increases. The model :shown in Fig. 7 is for two
turbines and four wind states, and can be compared
with the one shown in Fig. 4 and the one shown in
Fig. 5 , Model A, for one wind turbine. The problems
are: (i) reduction of the number of states resulting from
the wind farm model; (ii) construction of the STP
matrix representing the connections between the differ-
ent states (or alternat.ively the PI' matrix to calculate
directly the states probaibilities).
The number of states that result from a full Markov
analysis of the wind farm m.ode1 with I I turbines, each
machine having two states, is 2n times the number of
wind states. As the number of wind turbines increases,
the number of states in the combined wind farm model
reaches enormous proportions. For example, in a wind
farm with 30 turbines (11 = 30), the resulting number of
states per wind state is; 1073 741 824. This clearly shows
that the solution of the proposed model in terms of the
full Markov matrix becomes practically impossible
when the number of turbines in the wind farm is
increased to commercial levels.
This difficulty has been overcome by reducing the
number of equations created for the generalised system
513
by considering that the probabilities of those states
with the same contingency level are the same. The
resulting number of equations becomes realistic and the
results obtained are the same as those which would be
obtained from a full Markov analysis. The main prob-
lem is to describe an algorithm which directly translates
the complete matrix into its smallest possible form
avoiding storage of the initial number of states. This
matrix is called PItCLR (contingency level reduced PI
matrix).
The problem associated with a large number of states
becomes worse when several types of turbine are con-
sidered within the same wind farm. In this case, the
resulting reduced matrix using the above method shows
an irregular pattern that has to be corrected by means
of further reordering of the equations. The matrix then
presents a structure that is retained as the number and1
or types of turbines increases and which is suitable for
a computer algorithm. Each row in the matrix repre-
sents a unique contingency state of the different types
of turbines in the wind farm. For each contingency
level of a particular type of wind turbine, all possible
combinations of contingencies are considered recur-
sively. The diagonal elements contain the negative sum
of the transition rates departing from each state.
Although the size of the system of equations is reduced
by assuming those states with the same contingency to
have the same probability, the states at this level are
not lumped but treated individually. Therefore calcula-
tion of the individual state frequency is straightforward
when the state probabilities have been calculated.
can be represented as divided into small submatrices as
shown in eqn. 4. The submatrices A and D (eqns. 5
and 8) along the major diagonal correspond to subma-
trices WT, and WT2,respectively, in eqn. 3, and sub-
matrices B and C (eqns. 6 and 7) on the minor
diagonal correspond to W1+2 and W2+1, respectively,
in eqn. 3. The wind transition rates in the elements of
the main diagonal in submatrices A and D have not
been included for clarity purposes. In the case of two
wind states there are no submatrices of type 2.The
submatrices along the diagonal can also be subdivided
into smaller boxes. For each contingency level of each
type of wind turbine present in the wind farm all con-
tingencies of other types are considered recursively. In
this way the failure and repair rates of the wind tur-
bines occupy diagonals which can be identified and
described in an algorithm. It should be noted that this
matrix is not a STP matrix, the elements in the main
diagonal do not add up to the bum of elements in each
row. Therefore it is not directly possible to derive a
corresponding simplified state diagram:
(4)
J
0 ...
...
2x2
(2&1+2P2) ’ ’ ’
...
0
A= 0 ...
...
21’1

...
Finally, after considerable manipulation of the system (1

equations, a completely general algorithm was created 0 ...

for writing this matrix. The solution algorithm can 0 ...
directly create the smallest possible transition matrix
without losing any information for a system made up ... ...
XI 0 0
of n binary components with different interstate transi- ... ...
0 A1 0
tion rates in a multilayered environment. ... ...
0 0 X I
The general structure of the PICLRmatrix is shown in ... ...
0
eqn. 3. It can be subdivided into as many groups of ...
-(2hz+I’l+Xl) A2
...
rows and columns as the number of states used in the 2112 - 2+PZ
1 +/’I + 1 2x2
... 112 ...
wind model. Three different types of submatrices can 0 -(x1+1’1+2U2)
... ...
be identified: WLI 0 0
... 0 I’ I 0 ...
The WT submatrix. This submatrix contains the ... ...
0 0 PI
resulting transition rates derived from the analysis of
the wind turbines failure and repair processes in each
wind state. ... U

The Wj+j submatrix. This submatrix contains the ... 0

information about the transition between wind speed ... n

states i and j . ... 2xx1

The Z null submatrix. All elements in this submatrix

*.. 0
... n
are zero.
... -izv,+2x21
All these submatrices have the same dimension and
have the same number of rows and columns:

1 : :!
WTl

i:
WIi2
w211 wT2 w2+3 z - A n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
z w3+2 wT3 w31-4 ‘.’
O X A 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
: : (3) 0 0 0 0 0 1
As an example of the resulting PI’CLR matrix con- 0 0 0 X A O 0 0 0 2
sider a wind farm with two types of wind turbines and B= 0 0 0 O A A 0 0 0 4
two wind speed states. The wind speed transition rates 0 0 0 0 O X A O 0 2
are hA and h,. The transition rates for the wind tur- 0 0 0 0 0 O X A 0 1
bines are A,, p1, A2, p2for normal wind speeds and A’,, 0 0 0 0 0 0 O X A 2
p‘,, At2, pt2for extreme wind speeds. The PI’,,, matrix .o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
514 IEE Proc.-Cener. Transm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 5, Septemhrr 1996
 A B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 where
O A R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 &y = equivalent transition rate from subset a to sub-
0 o x g o 0 0 0 0 0 set6,
0 0 0 A B 0 0 0 0 0
A, = transition rate from state i of subset a to statej of
C= 0 0 0 o x g o 0 0 0
subset 0,
0 0 0 0 o x g o 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 o x g o 0 PI= probability of state i of subset a.
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x g 0 Sparsity techniques for the storage of the Markov
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O A R transition matrix can also be used to take advantage of
(7) the sparse nature of the matrix resulting from the state
0 ... diagram to solve the Markov model.
2x; ...
(Zx;+2WL;) ... 7 Wind generation indices
0 ...
... Wind generation indices have been defined to reflect
,D = 11
the specific aspects affecting the wind farm perform-
2P.i
...
...
ance [24].
0

0 ... Installed wind power (IWP). Sum of the rated power

0 ... of all the wind generators in the wind farm.
Installed wind energy (IWE). Installed wind power
... multiplied by a year, tlhis is the energy that could be
A ;
... extracted if the units could be operated continuously
0
... (IWP x 8760).
0

... -(2x;--,1; +A;)

Expected available wind energy (EAWE). Expected
... 211:
amount of energy that would be generated in a year, if
... 0 there were no wind turbine generator (WTG) outages.
... P ; Expected generated wind energy (EGWE). Expected
... 0 maximum amount of energy that would be generated
... 0 in a year by the real WTGs considering their outage
rates and the real wind to wlhich they are exposed.
... Wind generation ratios:
wind generation availability factor WGAF: EGWEi
IWE
wind generation utiilisation factor WGUF: EWEUi
EGWE
capacity factor: WCrAF x WGUIF.

... Table 7 Wind speed probability table

Prob,abi,ity Frequency Duration

State Range
Many states in the wind farm model correspond to (4s) (occ./year) (year)
-~
the samc output level. For further network reliability 1 0-5 0.347’1254 1321 2.62828 x IO4
analysis, it is necessary to generate the wind farm out- 2 5-6 0.09!38773 2666 3.74566 x
put table with generation states sorted by output
3 6-7 0.0962636 2657 3.62319 x
power. Therefore the original results are sorted by
power output, cumulated by grouping them with a 4 8-9 0.0864924 2503 3.45608 x
desired step length and the frequencies of going to 5 9 - 10 0.07134044 2286 3.34281 x
higher or lower generation levels calculated The main 6 10 - 11 0.064!5943 2044 3.15963 x IO”
difficulty is the calculation of the frequency of depar- 7 11 - 12 0.0542400 1757 3.08731 x
ture from each new cumulated state to lhigher and 8 12 - 13 0.0444518 1499 2.96522 x
lower generation states. This frequency is calculated as
9 13 - 14 0.03132090 1268 3.01250 x
the product of the icumulated state probability and its
departing transition rates. Additional algcirithms are 10 1 4 - 25 0.09113673 588.6 1.55232 x IO4
therefore necessary to calculate the equivalent transi- 11 25 - 27 0.00~0!5316 18.13 2.93280 x
tion rates between t he subsets of states representing the 12 27 - 30 0.001033542 7.976 4.44101 x
new cumulated stales in the transition matrix. These 13 30 - 35 0.00~00887 2.538 3.49556 x
are given by --
Values i n the sample: 289 ‘152
Valid observations: 269 57:2 (93.23%)
Sampling time: 10 m i n
M a x i m u m speed: 33.724rri/s
(9)
Mean w i n d speed: 7.035m/S
Variance: 18.273 (m/sP
2Ea

IEE ProcGener. Transm. Di.slrib., Vol 143, N o . 5, Seprernher. l Y Y 6 515

 301
s of 5.5 years of 10 min average wind
speed values giving a total of 289 152 observations.
25 However, Failure in the anemonieters or the recording
equipment reduced the number of valid values to
269572 (93.2'Xr). The wind speed state space consists of
13 states as shown in Table 7. The wind speed duration
curve i s shown in Fig. 8.
The wind turbine output curve used 1241 in this
example is shown in Fig. 9. This has been discretisecl
into 11 points. The wind turbine failure and repair
characteristics under dif'f'crent wind regimes are shown
in Table 8.
The order or the reduced matrix resulting from tlie
transition diagram is 195. The number of nonzero ele-
ments is 1 11 1 Liild hencc the sparsity ratio is 97.1'Xi.
T h e results For the first ten or the 195 levels are shown
in Table 9. These results are obtained after the wind
r--- - - ~- output states have been cumulated and sorted by
I125
5Ol
/
i
power output. The wind farm output duration curve is
given in Fig. 10.

1
Table 8 Wind turbine transition rates 10

Wind speed regime

Normal
. - ~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Failure rate (occ./year) 1.oo
Repair rate (occ./year) 50
8 Numerical example
The models described in the previous Sections have
been iinplemented into a Fortran 90 computer pro-
gram. Thc rollowing example illustrates an application
of the iiiodcls to a realistic wind farm containing 14
turbines cach rated at 1 501tW. The wind profile
obtained fi-om a real wind f;irm site has been used to
calculate the parameters of the wind speed model. The
Extreme
12.00 The resulting wind generation indices and ratios are
shown in Table IO. The wind farm capacity table for
10.00
network reliability studies. reduccd to 15 states, is
shown in Table 11.
9 Discussion
The results obtained from the wind farm model are
very satisfactory. The wind model adequately repre-
sents the frequency and probability distributions found
in the sample. The total wind fai-rn output found by
combining the wind and wind turbine models provide
very detailed information.

Table 9 Results obtained from the wind farm model after sorting the cumulated states by power
output

Individual Cumu Iated Frequency D u ratio n Wind Turbines Power

Number States
probability probability (occ./year) (year) state UP ikW!
________ -__-___ - ____ ____
1 1 6.9274 x 6.3274 x IO-' 4.4723 .? 102 1.5490 x 1 0 ' 10 14 2100.00
2 14 1.3834 x 1.9367 x 8.9991 1.5373 x I 0-4 10 13 1950.00
3 91 2.7628 x 2.5141 x 1 0 ~ 3 1.8108 x IO-' 1.5257 x 10 10 12 1800.00
4 364 5.5178 x IO-' 2.0085 x 3.6436 x IO-' 1.5144 x IO-' 10 11 1650.00
5 1001 1.1011 x 10-8 1.1032 10 5 7.3317 x 1.5032 x IO-" 10 10 1500.00
6 2002 2.2014 x 10 l o 4.4072 x 10~' 1.4753 x 1.4922 x I 0-4 10 9 1350.00
7 1 2.8970 x 2.8970 x 1 0 ~ 2 9.6207 x IO2 3.01 12 x 9 14 1332.00
8 14 5.7849 x 8.0988 x 1.9239 x I O ' 3.0068 x 9 13 1236.83
9 3003 4.3980 x I O - I 7 1.3207 x IO-* 2.9690 x 1.4813 x 10 8 1200.00
10 91 1.1552 x 1.0512 x 3.8476 x IO-I 3.0024 x 9 12 1141.69
 t y turbines IS very high N o t
Hie c ~ \ a i l c ~ b ~ofl ~wind ~pccds.This would increase the generated energy and
s~irpiisingly the ovcr.iIl availability ligui e I S very good alw the capiciiy factor but a1 the cost of ~ncrcasingthe
cd to conveiitiondl generatoi S . I i i this c a ~ ethe freq ucncy of sevci e damage5
I S 0 98041 (Table 10) Phis figure includes the Table 9 contains the detailed iiifcmmtion requiied by
ettect of I ~ i l u i e sin normal and evtienic uind \peed\ [he mind farm owner I-Iowwer, the iietwork planncr
tlowcvei . tlie effect of extieme wind speed^ upon this docs not iieed this detailed information. 7 he most
mliid f<11111it, 11egllglblt: Thc expected WGCJF wltliol~t iinportaiit resulls for t kit. interfacing network are found
coiivdei ing i lie effect of extrenie wind spccd4 f c i i l u i es IS in Table 1 1 ~ v l i i ~includes
h ilre probability and fre-
0 08044 and the fiequcncy of sevcic d‘imaper in t h i ~ quciicy cii\tributioiis ol ihe wind farm a s seen from the
c‘iie is ‘in excellent 0 00796 occiye:rr rhls was expected tee coniiection point This table IS very similar to the
hec‘iuw capacity outage probability table [I01 of a conventional
( C L ) Ilic medii \ m i d spccd IS low [or the lurbine ouiput generator with mulLiple (derated states and hence males
curve used llt IS at the 5ta1t of the nonl1ncar 1x11 t of the the tieatniciit of a wind farm for other iietwork relia-
t ~ i bine
i output tunc vcry necu the c ~ ~ t - i,peed n The bility ~tiidiesgreatly simplified I t can be also observed
stciindard deviation I S 4 24m/s Thercfoi c u ind speed from Table 1 I that. due 10 the grouping process of the
s h y \ well within the iatcd and ~ u i - v ~ vwind ~ i l speed foi cumulated states, somc cumulated states (state 5 ) may
most OJ the t i m e h o w very low pi ohabilities
(/I dtliough the li cqucncy of the extreme wind speed The \pai sity ratio is Imnsiderablc (0 97) justifying the
\tcite 15 3 5:;80cc/ycui. itr piobabilily 15 iiegligihlc dt u x of s p i se ~ i i ~ices
i t i 1111 the calculdtioiis. If inorc wind
0 0000887 l u r b i n c ~of the wine or Ihfferent types are added to the
wind fcu-m the order of the matrix grows con\idercibly
Table 10 Wind generation indices for the numerical In thLitc a ~ etruncation techniques for those states with
example hig1.1cr conlingencicc 1171gli1 be considered, however, the
icsultj would then iiot be exact.
Wind generation indices

INIP 2100kW 10 Conclusion

IWE 18 396.0 M W h
EAWE 3966.6MWh
A riew probabilistic motki of il wind farm that can be
used in reliability sLudics using analytical techniques
EGWE 3888.9MWh
has been presented. The model c o n d e r s the stochastic
WGAF 0.2140
nature oi‘ wind, the failure and rcpair processes of the
WGUF 0.98041 wind turbiiies under cliffcrciit wind regimes, and tlie
WGAF x WGlJF
- 0.2114
- - wind turbine output cliaracteristics in detail. Spatial
~
wind speed correlation ;and waking effects can also be
I t can be c:onclLided that this machine is overrated for cotisidci-cd. Tlie model c:iiii be used with one or several
thc conditions found 011 the particular wind far111 site. typcs of wind turbines and is easily integrated into
This is coiifirtiied again by the low value of the capac- existing reliability a ment models for distribution
ity I‘ictor (0.21. Tablc 10) which docs not iiicludc any nctworlts. A n~inicricalapplication of the models to a
notwork effkct. 7‘1iis is iiormally about 0.3 for ii wcll realistic wind farm cast: is also presented. The model
(1csigiied wirid f i rm G iven th is infoi-m;t li o 13 L hc wi nd
I
s ~rcces~~fullyprod uces the in for m a t ion required for each
fa 1-111 owner might consider I-cplacing thesc turbines o f tlie partics involved with a detailed representation of
wil h others with lower cut-in. rated arid C L I ~ - O L I Lwind the stochastic processes; iiivolvcd.

Table 11 Wind farm output table for network reliability studies

Probability Frequency
~ _ _ _ _ Duration Power
State To highet To lower (year)
Individual cumulated Individual states (kW)
states
~___ ~____
I 6.927 x I O 1.000 4.472 x I O 2 0.000 4.472 x I O ’ 1.549 x IlP4 2 100.00 1 274 355
2 1.937 x 1 0 ~ 7 9.307 x I O - ’ 1.260 x I O ’ 4.472 x I O ’ 5.713 x I O 2 1.537 x 1950.00 330 834
3 2 . 5 ’ 1 4 ~10-3 9.114 x IO-’ 1.648 x I O ’ 5.713 x I O ’ 5.872 x I O 2 1.526 x 1800.00 39 642
4 2 . 0 0 9 ~I O 4 9.088 x 1 0 ~ ’ 1.326 5.872 x I O 2 5.885 x I O 2 1.514 x 1650.00 2 903
5 1.103 x 1 0 ~ 5 9 086 x IO-’ 7.339 )r IO-’ 5 885 Y 10) 5.886 x I O 2 1.503 x I0-4 1500.00 145
6 3.707 x 1 0 ~ 2 9.086 x 10 ’ 1.231 103 5.886 x 10) 7.018 x I O 2 3.012 x 1311.19 425 780
7 3.476 x IO-’ 8.716 x 10 ’ 1.172 r I O 3 7 018 x 10) 7.920 x I O ’ 2.965 x 10-5 1071.61 326 259
8 1.073 x IO-’ 8.368 x IO-’ 3.642 x I O 2 7.920 107 8.191 x I O ’ 2.962 x 984.74 92 586
9 5.273 x 10~2 8.261 r 10 ’ 1.708 r IO3 8 191 107 9.588 x 10’ 3.087 10-5 820.19 378 822
10 5.059 x IO-’ 7.734 x IO-’ 1.603 r. I O3 9 588 107 1.073 x IO3 3.156 x 625 92 277 382
11 1 . 5 6 2 ~I O ’ 7.228 x 10 ’ 4.949 >: 102 1.073 x I O 3 1.107 x I O 3 3.155 x 572.78 78351
12 7.641 x I O 2 7.071 x 10 ’ 2.286 >. I O 3 1.107 x I O ’ I,204 103 3.343 10-5 430.84 288 391
13 1.595 x I O - ’ 6.307 x 10 ’ 2.530 x: IO3 1.204 x I O 3 1.351 x IO3 6.304 10-5 218.95 305 888
14 1.231 x 1 0 ~ ’ 4.712 x IO’ 2.659 x 10” 1.351 x I O 3 1.333 x I O 3 4.631 x 62.67 67612
15 3.481 x 1 0 ~ ’ 3.481 x 10 ’ 1.333 x I O 3 1.333 x I O 3 0.000 2.611 x 0.00 0
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