Terms of reference

Investment Case for Underfunded Sectors

1. Background and Context

Mozambique is characterized by a youthful population (51.6 percent below age 18 in 2023), a high
population growth rate (2.8 percent) and a slow demographic transition1. The percentage of Mozambicans
under 18 will still be around 41 percent in 2050, an estimated 24.8 million of children that will require
education, health services, social support, justice and much more to be able to survive and thrive. For
comparison, the total population of Mozambique in 2023 is estimated at 32.5 million2, about 16.7 million of
them children, suffering levels of deprivation in key dimensions such as education, health, and access to
water as high as 46 percent3. This is therefore the time for Mozambique to plan on how best to reap this
demographic dividend by investing in those key sectors that are fundamental for the survival and thriving
of children but are currently relatively underfunded.

These sectors can be broadly defined as Early Childhood Development (ECD – which is structured around
the Nurturing Care framework4 and spans from nutrition to health – from pregnancy, through birth and
onwards, early stimulation and education as well as protection) and Social Protection (including cash
assistance, the care component and specifically PROSAS – as detailed in the Estratégia Nacional de
Segurança Social Básica 2016-2024 (ENSSB II)).

Investing in these areas early can have tremendous impacts in the future chances of the child to survive
and thrive. For instance, children who attend early childhood education programs are twice as likely to
show progress in early literacy and numeracy, compared to only 20 percent among children not attending
any pre-primary education program (Black et al., 2017) 5. Moreover, children who access quality early
childhood education are more likely to start primary school at the right age, progress through the system,
learn, and develop competencies needed for life. This means lower dropout and repetition rates, and higher
completion rates (UNICEF, 2019)6. Attending an early childhood education program is, therefore, one of
the strongest predictors for a child’s readiness for school (Britto et al., 2017) 7. Investing in early years
generates exceptionally high economic and social returns. The World Bank (2018) estimates that better
nourished children earn between 5 and 50 percent higher incomes when they become adults than their
malnourished counterparts7. Heckman (2008, 2017) estimates an annual rate of return on investment in
ECD of between 10 and 13.7 percent for every dollar invested 8 . ECD is therefore a very effective
investment to improve the future chances of children in the country.

Furthermore, the current monetary and multidimensional poverty conditions of children in Mozambique
signal the needs for additional interventions to improve their chances in life and to leave no one behind.
Global and regional evidence on the benefits of cash transfers, especially unconditional cash transfers,

1 http://www.ine.gov.mz/iv-rgph-2017/mocambique/censo-2017-brochura-dos-resultados-definitivos-do-iv-rgphnacional.pdf/view
2 http://www.ine.gov.mz/projeccoes-da-populacao-2017-2050
3 Multidimensional Poverty in Mozambique (UNICEF, 2020)
4 https://nurturing-care.org/
5 Black, M. M. et al. (2017) ‘Early childhood development coming of age: science through the life course’, The Lancet. Lancet

Publishing Group, pp. 77–90. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31389-7.

6 UNICEF (2019) UNICEF global resource guide on public finance for children in Early Childhood Development, Partners

Edition. 7 Britto, P. R. et al. (2017) ‘Nurturing care: promoting early childhood development’, The Lancet. Lancet Publishing
Group, pp.
91–102. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31390-3
7 https://www.unicef.org/esa/media/8156/file/UNICEF-ESARO-Quantifying-Heckman-Paper-2021-revised.pdf
8 https://jenni.uchicago.edu/papers/Heckman_Masterov_RAE_2007_v29_n3.pdf

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in addressing multi-dimensional poverty is overwhelming, with extensive evidence supporting the
positive impacts of cash transfers on food security, school participation, monetary poverty, and

economic productivity, among others. In the case of the Child Grant, the pilot evaluation results show
strong impacts on children’s birth registration and dietary diversity as well as improved status of their
caregivers and families (greater savings and reduced violence), among others. There is therefore need
to further strengthen social protection mechanisms in the country to bring these benefits to scale.

2. Objectives, Purpose and Expected Results

Against this background, the Government of Mozambique, together with UNICEF, wishes to prepare an
investment case to support reforms and advocacy efforts to improve over the medium- and long-term the
level of financing of ECD and Social Protection in Mozambique, having identified them as key levers to
improve the conditions of children in the country, respond to the challenges of poverty and support the
achievement of Mozambique’s development ambitions towards the SDGs and beyond. This analysis will
be critical to inform the development of a new ENSSB in 2024 and other sectoral policies and programs.

The case will be structured around the modelling of possible scenarios in terms of programme coverage,
impact9, and financing needs for ECD and Social Protection, to propose a set of viable policy options for
government’s consideration. These will be included in a report and summarized in a policy brief. The model
will also be part of the deliverables.

3. Description of the Assignment

The investment cases should be built on the (i) available evidence of positive impact of investments in
programs constituting ECD and Social Protection on children outcomes, poverty reduction and thus the
economy; (ii) costing of selected reform options and programme expansion scenarios; (iii) modelling of the
impact of different levels of investments in key programs as well as of some reforms, to show in various
scenarios the positive contribution that will be made in the future connected to each level of investment
(the scenarios will be agreed upon during the inception phase) 10 ; and (iii) a proposition for a short-,
medium- and long-term approach to improving the financing of these sectors through different mixes of
resources. The possible synergies between social protection approaches such as Cash+ and the some of
the ECD programs could also be explored in some scenarios. The points above will require a mapping of
which programmes to include within ECD and Social Protection and what their current coverage is, to be
done together with Government and stakeholders.

Having clarified the objectives of this ToR, UNICEF is also looking forward to receiving technical proposals
from bidding institutions suggesting improvements to the approaches and methodologies hinted at in this
ToRs, to best deliver the required products and improve UNICEF’s capacity to advocate for children.

9 The Ministry of Economy and Finance, in collaboration with the ILO and UNU-WIDER already has a microsimulation model,
MozMod, that could be used to support part of the required modelling.
https://www.socialprotection.org/gimi/ShowRessource.action?id=58032
10 There are available models and tools that could be used to complement the analysis such as

https://www.socialprotection.org/gimi/ShowRessource.action;jsessionid=KIatmToosQHsVzFIh2jgoavl5QcDYpojNQdCAEL1-
L9ktwRsn2Am!-
1244396747?id=58032
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5. Reporting Requirements
Each of the deliverables listed under .4 will be sent to UNICEF’s Social Policy Section. UNICEF will review
and provide the required quality assurance of the deliverables before they are submitted to the Ministry of
Finance and a reference group of relevant line ministries for their comments and clearance of the
deliverables.

6. Location and Duration

The assignment will last indicatively from December 2023 to July 2024, with the possibility to modify the
timelines depending on the proposals received. The team will be required to carry out a fact finding visit in
Mozambique.

7. Content of proposals and Qualification requirements

Technical Proposal
UNICEF, on behalf of the Government of Mozambique, seeks to establish a contract with a competent and
technically qualified contractor, to execute the services described in these terms of reference

The technical proposal shall contain but not limited to the following:
• Proposed methodology to carry out the service, including implementation timeline and resources
used to achieve the project results within the timeframe.
• Analysis of the context, the challenges (geographical and logistic, local contractors’ capacity,
climate, time-lag management, quality control.) and mitigation action proposed.
Detailed the Project Team:
• List of qualified key personnel available for the proposed consultancy and including their CV's and
certificates to be submitted proving their qualifications.
• Detailed allocation of staff and their roles and responsibilities in each phase of the implementation.
• The team will need to include local consultants (as individuals or in partnership with a local firm).
Implementation strategy
• Demonstration of a clear rationale and understanding of the terms of reference including any
comments on the terms of reference and associated risks.
• A list of the proposed tasks you consider necessary to achieve the contract objectives
• Approach to managing the project, including Risk Management, Quality Control and Monitoring &
Evaluation.
• Work plan with logical sequencing and work schedule in accordance with timeframe, including a
detailed plan of the intervention by task force.

8. Administrative Issues
The team will be required to carry out a country visit to Mozambique to support the preparation of the
investment case and ensure a proper understanding of the Mozambican context. The reporting should be
done in English and the final version of the Final Report and Policy Brief should be translated in
Portuguese.

9. Project Management
The assignment will be managed by the Social Policy Section.

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