MARKET SPOTLIGHT RACE TO ZERO DECEMBER 2023

In the first quarter of 2023, just under 2,000 new

EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles were sold in
DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY: JANUARY-MARCH 2023 the EU-27, including 1,000 buses and coaches, 450
light and medium trucks, and 500 heavy trucks.
EAMONN MULHOLLAND AND NICOLE EGERSTROM
Zero-emission heavy truck sales in this first quarter
represented 0.6% of all sales, double the 0.3% share
for the full year of 2022. Shares of zero-emission
Sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles by segment Sales shares of zero-emi ssion heavy-duty vehicles by Member State light and medium trucks reached 4% this quarter,
Sales Shares up from 2% in 2022. Sales shares of zero-emission
Shares buses and coaches rose from 12% in 2022 to 16%
5,000 20% 100%
Light and medium trucks this quarter. However, 23% of all city bus sales were
Rest of
Heavy trucks EU-27 zero-emission this quarter, while the zero-emission
Buses
Italy share for coaches and interurban buses was less
4,000 16% 80%
Denmark than 1%.
Sweden

Netherlands Germany and France continue to dominate the

3,000 12% 60% sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, being
Spain
responsible for over half the sales in the EU-27 this
quarter. A notably high share of sales were in the
2,000 8% 40% smaller Member States of Denmark, Sweden, and
France
the Netherlands.

1,000 4% 20%

Germany

0%
0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

2017 2019 2021 2023 Q1 2017 2019 2021 2023 Q1

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THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
1. HEAVY TRUCKS FIGURE 1.1 FIGURE 1.2

TRUCKS WITH A GROSS VEHICLE Sales of heavy trucks by powertrain Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks
WEIGHT ABOVE 12 TONS
Sales (bars) Shares (dots)
Heavy trucks represent 80% of the sales
97% 2% <1% 1,000 1.00%
of all heavy-duty vehicles. Of the 77,000
Diesel Natural gas Battery electric Fuel cell electric
heavy trucks sold in this quarter, just 500 Battery electric 820

were zero-emission vehicles. This is more 750 0.75%

than all zero-emission heavy truck sales in
2021. The majority of these zero-emission
sales were rigid body trucks, while less than 500
500 0.50%
25% were tractor trailers, which is the most
popular heavy-duty vehicle segment in 290
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
Europe. More than half the sales of zero- 250 0.25%
emission vehicles came from Volvo Group,
80 90
which consists of Volvo Trucks and Renault
Trucks, even though the Volvo Group sold 0 0.00%
only one-quarter of conventional vehicles 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1

in the same period. IVECO, MAN, and DAF THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG

combined sold just 4% of Europe’s zero-

emission heavy trucks yet were responsible FIGURE 1.3 FIGURE 1.4
for 40% of conventional sales. Nearly one- Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by configuration Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by model and
and powertrain battery capacity
quarter of all zero-emission heavy trucks
were sold in Germany, along with roughly 6x2 tractor trailers Sales
Volvo Trucks FE/F/FL7Series
the same share of combustion vehicles. 4x2 4x2 6x2 60
tractor rigid rigid Volvo Trucks FM Series
Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands Battery chemistry
trailers trucks trucks Other Renault Trucks D
50 LFP
accounted for 40% of zero-emission heavy
Conventional NMC
truck sales in the EU-27 but less than 10% Volvo Trucks FL-Series
vehicles 40
of conventional heavy truck sales.
30 Scania P-Series
Zero-emission Renault Trucks D Wide
Mercedes-Benz Actros
vehicles 20
DAF CF
10
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Renault Trucks D Heavy
Mercedes-Benz Econic
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
0
150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Battery capacity (kWh)
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2 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 1.5 FIGURE 1.6
Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by Member State Shares of heavy trucks by powertrain and manufacturer
Shares
23% 16% 11% 50%
Germany France Denmark Zero-emission vehicles
Conventional vehicles

40%

13%
Sweden
30%

20%

17%
Netherlands

10% 10%
Spain Rest of EU-27
10%

0%
Volvo Trucks Scania DAF MAN

Renault Trucks Mercedes-Benz Hyundai Others

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3 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

2. LIGHT AND MEDIUM FIGURE 2.1 FIGURE 2.2
Sales of light and medium trucks by powertrain Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks
TRUCKS
Sales (bars) Shares (dots)
TRUCKS WITH A GROSS VEHICLE 93% 3% 4%
WEIGHT BETWEEN 3.5 TONS AND Diesel Natural gas Battery electric 1,500 7.5%
12 TONS Fuel cell electric
Battery electric
Light and medium trucks constitute 14% of
1,100
the sales of all heavy-duty vehicles. Of the
12,000 vehicles sold this quarter, 450 were 1,000 5.0%
910 900
zero-emission vehicles. This represents an
720
increase in the zero-emissions sales share
from 2% in the full year of 2022 to 4% this
500 450 2.5%
quarter. More than 80% of zero-emission
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
vehicle sales were vans, even though vans
represent only 30% of conventional vehicle
sales. The majority of zero-emission vehicle
sales occurred in Germany. Over half of all 0 0.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1
zero-emission vehicles were supplied by
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
Ford. Several manufacturers produced only
zero-emission light and medium trucks,
FIGURE 2.3 FIGURE 2.4
such as StreetScooter, Maxus, and Bucher.
Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by
configuration and powertrain model and battery capacity
Sales
4x4
rigid 4x4
250
4x2 Ford Transit Battery chemistry
rigid 4x2 trucks vans Other
trucks vans Unknown
200 LFP
Conventional NMC
vehicles LTO
150

100
Zero-emission
vehicles Fiat Ducato
StreetScooter Work XL
50
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
DAF LF
Mitsubishi Fuso Canter
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
0
50 100 150 200 250
Battery capacity (kWh)
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4 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 2.5 FIGURE 2.6
Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by Member State Shares of light and medium trucks by powertrain and manufacturer

Shares
51% 23% 12% 70%
Germany Netherlands Rest of
EU-27 Zero-emission vehicles
Conventional vehicles

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

8% 6%
Spain Denmark
10%

0%
Ford StreetScooter Mercedes-Benz Bucher Others

Fiat Maxus Mitsubishi

Fuso
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5 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

3. BUSES AND FIGURE 3.1 FIGURE 3.2
Sales of city buses (top) and interurban/coaches Sales of all zero-emission buses
COACHES (bottom) by powertrain
WITH A GROSS VEHICLE WEIGHT ABOVE Sales (bars) Shares (dots)
3.5 TONS 24% 21% 31% 23% 3,000
3,400
15%
Diesel Natural Hybrid Battery Fuel cell electric
The gap between diesel and electric city
gas electric Battery electric 2,800
bus sales narrowed significantly, while
hybrid buses became the most sold 1%
powertrain type for the first time. All city Fuel cell 2,000 10%
buses sold this quarter in four countries electric
1,700
(the Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, and 1,500
Lithuania) were zero-emission. The majority 95% 4% 1,000
of zero-emission bus sales came from Diesel Natural gas 1,000 5%

manufacturers who produced no diesel

vehicles in Europe. BYD (headquartered 1%
in China), Yutong (China), Heuliez Bus Electric
0 0%
(France), and Karsan (Turkey) produced
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1
half of all zero-emission buses sold in
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
Europe.

FIGURE 3.3
Sales of zero-emission city buses by model and battery capacity

75%

60%

Diesel
45%

Battery electric
30%
Natural gas
15%
Hybrid
Fuel cell electric
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021 2022 2023

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6 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

 FIGURE 3.4 FIGURE 3.5
Sales of zero-emission city buses by configuration and powertrain Shares of all buses by powertrain and manufacturer
Shares
Netherlands 50%
Zero-emission vehicles
Denmark
Conventional vehicles
Ireland

Lithuania
50%
Finland

Luxembourg

Portugal

Sweden
40%
Romania

Greece

Spain

Poland 30%

Italy

Belgium

France
20%
Germany

Hungary

Austria

Czechia 10%
Estonia

Fuel cell electric

Battery electric Hybrid Natural gas Diesel 0%

EU-27 Karsan MAN Yutong Heuliez

Bus
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Solaris BYD M-Benz Other
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7 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

4. TECHNOLOGY
FIGURE 4.1
FOCUS: BATTERIES Sales of trucks and buses in 2022 by battery manufacturer, battery chemistry, and manufacturer headquarters
LOOKING BEYOND QUARTERLY SALES
Manufacturer base Battery manufacturer Battery chemistry Vehicle type
The zero-emission truck and bus market
Heavy trucks
is heavily dependent on the supply
BYD
of batteries. In Europe, most of these
batteries are supplied by non-European China
manufacturers. In 2022, the latest full year
of data, suppliers headquartered in South CATL
Korea were responsible for one-third of
Buses and
Europe’s heavy-duty batteries (all NMC),
coaches
while suppliers headquartered in China
LFP
provided one-quarter (almost all LFP).
Roughly 20% of Europe’s heavy-duty SAFT

batteries were produced by companies Europe

that are headquartered in the bloc, with the
remaining share from unknown sources. FIAMM NaNiCI

Two battery chemistries dominate

the heavy-duty sector: lithium nickel
manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and lithium LG Chem
iron phosphate (LFP). NMC batteries are
the most common battery chemistry in NMC
the transport sector globally, representing
South Korea Samsung SDI
60% of all electric vehicle sales, but LFP
batteries have started gaining traction,
particularly in the heavy-duty market.
In China, 95% of battery electric trucks SK Group
LTO
are powered by an LFP battery. LFPs
have a lower energy density but are
comparatively cheaper than their NMC Unknown Unknown
LMP
counterparts because they rely on less
Light and medium
expensive and more abundant materials.
trucks
They also pose less of a safety risk, with a
THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG
lower propensity to overheating, and have
a longer average lifetime.

8 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY

DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES, METHODOLOGY, AND ASSUMPTIONS
A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle with a
propulsion system producing zero combustion
emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel
cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by
combustion.
A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle,
intended for the transport of passengers or freight,
with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons.
A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight
above 12 tons.
A light and medium truck is a truck or van with a
gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tons and 12 tons.
A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle
weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in
urban environments.
An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross
vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used in both
urban and regional environments.
A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle
weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in
regional environments.
9 ICCT MARKET SPOTLIGHT | EUROPEAN HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE MARKET DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY
Battery abbreviations:
LFP: Lithium iron phosphate
LMP: Lithium metal polymer
LTO: Lithium titanate oxide
NMC: Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide
NaNiCl: Sodium nickel chloride
All data on the sheets for heavy trucks and light and
medium trucks and any figures with the heading “all
zero-emission buses” in the buses and coaches sheet
were supplied by IHS Markit; Copyright © IHS Markit,
2023. Any figure with the heading “city buses” was
sourced from Chatrou CME Solutions. All data from
the batteries sheet was sourced from EV Volumes.
All countries from the EU-27 Member States, except
Bulgaria, are covered here. Data related to city buses
excludes Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia, Malta, and
Cyprus.
 © 2023 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION (ID 41)

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