Futures 123 (2020) 102625

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Futures
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures

The Territorial Foresight for the construction of shared visions and

mechanisms to minimize social conflicts: The case of
Latin America
Fredy Vargas-Lama *, Francisco-Javier Osorio-Vera
Center for Strategic Thinking and Foresight, School of Management, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Calle 12 No. 1-17 Este., Bogotá, Colombia

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Articulating visions of sustainable territorial development at the sub-national level is a challenge
Territorial Foresight throughout the planet. In Latin America, due to the characteristics of its primary export-led
Long-Term Vision economic model, the deficient practices of public administrations have generated failures to
Social Conflicts
implement structural reforms, with this economic-social inequality, asymmetries of urban and
Cognitive Bias
Sustainable Development
rural development without a long-term vision.
Policy Design This article presents two results derived from a theoretical-practical debate: the first, a model
to determine the cases in which the territorial foresight can be successfully applied as a mech­
anism of generation of shared visions and long-term sustainable development, recognizing the
existence of the primary cognitive bias about the key actors; the second, is a formal proposal for
the implementation of the territorial foresight for an active process of collective participation that
ensures legitimacy and commitment.
The first section presents the causal problems of the slow development of Latin America in the
last 25 years and the critical aspects to achieving the expected improvements. Then, the role of
territorial foresight to promote the sustainable development of a territory analyzing its potential
and some identified problems. Finally, guidelines for a successful exercise with a long-term vision
in Latin America are suggested.

1. Introduction

1.1. Latin America in the last 25 years: Pseudo-economic stabilization characterized by inequity and short-term vision

The Latin American governments of the 90 s carried out economic reforms originated in the generalized economic crisis of the 80 s,
known as the lost decade (Brieger, 2002; Ocampo, Stallings, Bustillo, Belloso, & Frenkel, 2014). The crisis of this period revealed
structural weaknesses as a continent and the need for changes (Hofman, 2000).
These reforms sought economic stabilization, guarantee medium-term growth that would address the economic, social, infra­
structure, educational, and governance situation (Zettelmeyer, 2006). The internationalization and liberalization program used was
the Washington Consensus (Martin, 2005) based on the search for fiscal/monetary stability and the beginning of structural reforms, the
balance of payments, prevention of financial crises and reduction of the exposure of the region to external conditions (Loayza,

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: fredy.vargas@uexterrnado.edu.co (F. Vargas-Lama), francisco.osorio@uexternado.edu.co (F.-J. Osorio-Vera).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102625
Received 31 March 2019; Received in revised form 25 December 2019; Accepted 17 August 2020
Available online 26 August 2020
0016-3287/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
F. Vargas-Lama and F.-J. Osorio-Vera Futures 123 (2020) 102625

Fajnzylber, & Calderon, 2004). These policies implemented in the last decade of the last century managed to stabilize most of the Latin
American nations relatively.
While all of the above was fundamental to generating the economic growth framework, it was not enough for these economies to
achieve development (Brieger, 2002). Other factors that we have to consider are the following:

1 Incomplete implementation of first, second, and third-generation structural reforms. (Kuczynski & Williamson, 2003; Loayza et al.,
2004; Solimano & Soto, 2005). The imperative, as McKinsey Global Institute (2017) points out, is given by the promotion of the
adoption of digital technologies and automation, meeting the demands of the labor market, and increasing investments in the
economic engines of long-term productivity.
2 The high exposure to international crises, given the composition of the export basket, made up of primary products (Kuczynski &
Williamson, 2003; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009). The way to minimize the risk in the long term and the volatility of growth for the
region is to transform the natural-resource export profile dependent on a few commodities, to a structure based on productive
diversification; which promotes competitiveness via the democratization of entrepreneurship and innovation opportunities (OECD,
2016a, 2016b).
3 Population and socioeconomic inequality in the region (World Bank, 2016; Calderón, 2012; Arsel, Hogenboom, & Pellegrini, 2016;
ECLAC, 2015; Kuczynski & Williamson, 2003). To speak of growth with equity, we must create affordable and competitive con­
ditions for the majority of the population and generate human and social capital capable of assuming technology, managing
knowledge and capitalizing on its development model.
4 Asymmetric schemes for urban and rural development (ECLAC, 2015) (OECD, 2016a, 2016b; Acemoglu & Robinson, 2012). To
establish a regional balance about development, we must think of a system of incentives from governance to promote inclusive and
sustainable growth (Vargas-Lama & Mojica, 2019). Such mechanisms are 1) citizen inclusion with legal representation in
decision-making, 2) accountability public as an act of open government, and 3) the committed action of public administrations
from the legal framework and with the political will that provide viability to long-term public policies.
5 No long-term vision in Latin America (Mattar & Perrotti, 2014a; Mattar & Perrotti, 2014b; Bitar, 2014; Burinskiene & Rudzkiene,
2009). Territorial development plans with a long-term perspective must necessarily point towards sustainability (in a broad sense),
a concept that maintains a significant correlation with the concept of "quality of life" (KPMG International, 2016)

The five previous problems are the cause of the generation of social conflicts. They have generated a perception on the part of the
citizens of the inaction of the State in these regions (Calderón, 2012; Arsel et al., 2016), which has generated a permanent environment
of social conflict in the region.

1.2. The critical aspects of achieving long-term territorial and sustainable development in Latin America

The creation of a long-term vision strategy is a necessity for sub-national entities (regions, departments, provinces, or territories).
The OECD perspective suggests the need to think of the territory as an interaction between man - "homo economicus" and territorial
space in the long term, and for this, he suggests an analysis with a long-term horizon (greater than ten years). For this, the use of
foresight is essential because of the strengths of its methodology (OECD, 2010) (OECD, 2016b).
Territorial development goes hand in hand with sustainable development. The notion of sustainable development is based on a
dimension of "change," which can be gradual and directional (Gallopin, 2003). This perspective applied to the region suggests having
public policies of regional economic development (Cuervo, 2012) with a long-term vision.
The tendential and weak citizen participation in Latin America in the decision making of the future from its conception to propose
the ordering and territorial planning has been cause that the decision processes are not reflective of the public interests subordinated to
a common good (Arrow, 1951; Sandoval, 2014; Arsel et al., 2016). This theme has been worked from the ancient Greek philosophers to
Jean-Jacques Rousseau, as an object of the social search and supreme objective of government (Rousseau, 1762/2014).
Consequently, we affirm that the participatory component in decisions is fundamental for the generation of shared long-term
visions (Miklos & Tello, 1991; Burinskiene & Rudzkiene, 2009; Mattar & Cuervo, 2016).
Today there is a worldwide trend of citizen participation and media communication in the design of public policies for regional
development that generates a strong incentive in democratic governments for the generation of these participatory practices (which
can be used in territorial planning processes) that implies the generation of a "political profitability" (Mariñez, Zurbriggen, & Osorio,
2012).
These behaviors for the sake of territorial ordering reveal the pattern of being-inclusive type exercises that generate: economic and
social synergies, a reduction of political tensions, a decrease in unregulated economic activity (informality/illegality), a decrease in
uncontrolled migration to developed regions (Zinovyeva, Kozenko, Gerasimov, Dubova, & Irizepova, 2016). These imply that regional
development strategies must be structured jointly, maintaining the particularities of each subnational entity, but winning the synergies
of systemic thinking.
The territorial ordering is a complex phenomenon, given that it is multidimensional (various factors), multitemporal (past, present,
and future), multiscalar (internal, external influence) (Salas, 2013). We must also add the dimensions; micro, medium, and macro
levels of interactions between actors and factors that affect the territory (Urteaga, 2011). This consideration helps understand the
possible alliances and degrees of collaboration, as well as of conflict between the agents involved in the task of regional development
(Tennoy et al., 2016).

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2. The new Latin American foresight territorial planning

2.1. The Territorial Foresight generating a territorial planning model

On the practical level, we observe that effective processes of citizen inclusion are rarely carried out in decision-making processes
and that they are generally characterized by their lack of transparency, non-representative nature, and, therefore, without legitimacy.
From the above, two possible causes are identified concerning the lack of citizen participation in the long-term territorial planning
processes: a) the tools to consider the opinion of the population are not adequate and more worrisome and fundamental, b) the denial
of the importance of citizen participation in these tasks by government organizations (Calderón, 2012; Naser, Ramírez-Alujas, &
Rosales, 2017),
In the last 15 years, there has been a revival of planning in the region, based on a new paradigm: there is no attempt to reject the
market, but they need to have a government that responds to the expectations of the population through better public interventions
(Martin, 2005).
This new scheme is based on long-term future thinking, which is related to the most crucial development experiences in the world
over the last 40 years based on two elements: i) generation of a long-term vision and ii) strategies that specify it (Baena, 2015). These
two elements must be accompanied by an adequate follow-up and monitoring process that guarantees compliance with national
objectives (Martin, 2005), (Mattar & Perrotti, 2014a; Mattar & Perrotti, 2014b).
Territorial foresight is the way to structure long-term thinking for the achievement of national vision-strategy objectives that
promote regional and sustainable development (Burinskiene & Rudzkiene, 2009; CEPLAN, 2014a) and has been the basis for the
development (and consolidation) of many nations in the world in the last 40 years (the European Union, Japan, Singapore, Korea,
Taiwan, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, among many others (Kuosa, 2011; UNDP GCPSE, 2014; Habegger, 2010; Yoo, 2008b).
Historically, the development of the territorial foresight has as its origin the works carried out in Europe and which have been
surveyed by the OECD for more than two decades. These derive from post-war Western Europe territorial planning methodologies,
which were developed within the so-called European Recovery Program generated by the famous Marshall Plan (Woods, 1987), which
led to the recovery of the continent with a long-term vision. In the case of Latin America, one of the organizations that have most
promoted its use has been ECLAC, through its multiple publications and impact on regional decision-makers. Below are compelling

Table 1
Territorial prospective studies and documents in Latin America for the structuring of long-term territorial development plans and policies.
COUNTRY STUDY DESCRIPTION YEAR

Perú General Directive of the Strategic Planning Process
Perú Megatrends: an analysis of the global state
Uruguay Uruguay and its development-foresight model.
Opportunities and restrictions.
Colombia Status and foresight of the possibilities for mitigating
the impact of climate change in the Atlantic Coast
region.
México The foresight of agriculture in the development of
Mexico.
México Critical areas for economic and social development: A
vision from international foresight activity.
A document that details the main elements of a strategic planning process with 2014
three phases for long-term territorial and institutional planning: Prospective,
Strategic, and Institutional Analysis.
The authors reveal the global context until the middle of the 21 st century 2014
analyzing the interaction between eight megatrends demographic changes,
expansion of the middle classes and consumption, scarcity of resources, climate
change, power, and global governance, globalization economic, citizen
empowerment, the massification of knowledge and technological convergence.
The authors argue from the perspective of the political and academic cast as 2015
Uruguay could give the "leap to development" in the medium term. The
conjuncture of economic bonanza and the confirmation of several virtuous
social tendencies in the recent past seem to pay the opportunity to achieve the
territorial development intended 2015
This article describes the mitigation conditions in the Colombian Atlantic Coast 2014
and the public and private actions that are being developed to achieve this
goal. The understanding of mitigation as human intervention helps to reduce
the impacts of climate on the population affected by climatic phenomena
through strategies to reduce sources and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)
and the promotion of sinks (conservation and restoration of forests).
Since the mid-sixties, the field has become a demanding sector of government 2013
subsidies. Its role as a lever of industrial development was relieved first by oil
and then by the export sector of manufactures. However, the situation of the
international crisis in developed countries and the increase in demand in the
large emerging countries now place it as a generator of goods and services of
high demand and, therefore, a profitable area of interest for investors and
investors. of the financial system. The article discusses the long-term possibility
for the field to play again as a driving force for the economy and national
development in the face of the world economy.
This work situates the foresight within the framework of the economic and 2008
social development of international cases. Individually, more than twenty
foresight activities are examined over five continents. The purpose of this study
is to establish priorities and key technological areas to promote economic and
social development transversally.

Source: Own elaboration based on: CEPLAN (2014b), Caetano and De Armas (2015); Guerrero, De Dios, and Garcia (2014)); Haro (2013) Silvera and
Silvera (2008).

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F. Vargas-Lama and F.-J. Osorio-Vera Futures 123 (2020) 102625

contemporary examples that have had an impact on the structuring of public plans and policies in this area (Table 1).
Although each of these countries has had a particular development strategy, which can not be copied correctly, they have in
common an orderly vision of the future and a concrete participation of the Government in the formulation and implementation of the
same, articulating the efforts of all social actors, who must participate both in the conception and in its development (Yoo, 2008a).
The common problem of a territorial ordering of the future is the absence of a joint long-term vision, explained from two actual
situations of the actors: a government that does not listen to the population and a population that feels ignored in their requests. If
decision-makers ignore the population, there is no way to achieve the satisfaction of their needs (Bray, 1968).
At the subnational level, there are at least two types of intervention that can be worked from the perspective: a) Development plans
(departmental, regional and provincial) and b) Land use (and spatial) plans (Haro, 2013). In both types of interventions, it is necessary
to observe the relationship of the social space in the physical (the group that has power or control over said territory) (Sandoval, 2014).
The territory and the possessors are not static entities; it is imperative to understand the dynamics in the territory (Massey, 1995).
These dynamics have implications: social, cultural, environmental, geographical.
For the United Nations, the administration of spatial planning is closely related to the concepts of territorial and urban planning, as
a whole (UN Habitat, 2015). At the same time, they indicate that to achieve their objectives, they have to be closely related to three
dimensions of development: social inclusion sustained economic growth and environmental protection and management (UN Habitat,
2015).
For this reason, it is vital to link the Environmental Mediation approach with the territorial partner (Caser, Marques-Cebola,
Vasconcelos, & Ferro, 2017). Through instruments to listen to the voice of the community (Mojica, 1999b). The interactions be­
tween power and communication in regional planning processes are prevailing in the administration of socio-spatial learning policies,
and that must be taken into account for future territorial planning decisions (Natarajan, 2017).
The strategic formulation of the territories are in function of Global Structural Change Dynamics that are: i) The productive,
technological and educational, ii) the geopolitical/geostrategic, iii) the institutional political, iv) the sociocultural and digital, v) the
environmental and sustainable economy and vi) governance processes (Dalla-Torre, 2016; Medina, 2016; Sandoval, Sanhueza, &
Williner, 2015). If we fail to understand these dynamics in our social or territorial processes, we would be disarticulated from the
symbolic components of the territory: values, cultures, and local identities and what is being presented on the planet today for the
future.
If to all the above factors we add the intervention of foreign economic agents, authorized to exploit the region’s natural resources
and who in many cases are perceived by the population as "invaders who want to take advantage of their wealth," we have the broth of
ideal crop for conflicts between communities and the system (Haslam and Taminoune, 2016; Castellares & Fouche, 2017).
For the generation of an orderly vision of the long-term future, which is also participatory, the Territorial Foresight is the tool. It is
based on the orderly exploration of the contexts for the generation of possible medium and long-term scenarios (Medina, Becerra, &
Castaño, 2014), with the particularity that does not take the possibilities as given, but proposes us to "design the future," as the French
philosopher Maurice Blondel pointed out: "the future is not foreseen but is built" (Mojica, 1999a, 2006). It is the effort to make the most
desirable future probable (Miklos and Tello, 1991), where the important thing is to provoke a collective process in the decision making
under reasonable control - logical, causal, feasible, economical, political, legal, and technical viability. The long-term future visions
that are generated from the foresight have to guide the subsequent realization of development plans that guarantee the design,
articulation, and implementation of public policies congruent to the notion of the desired future (Osorio, 2008).
This creation can be done through the determination of possible objectives for the territory and the identification of the means and
resources to achieve them and is complemented with the forecast of the behavior of the system, to choose the best option (Baena,
2004).
Another essential aspect that stands out in the generation of long-term planning processes based on foresight is the fact that the
cognitive and transdisciplinary approach of opinion experts in the co-creation of future events is used as a primary input (CEPLAN,
2014a). This aspect helps to escape from the linearity in consideration of the possible future and of step propitiates an exercise of
collective reflection that generates learning (Mariñez et al., 2012).

2.2. The potential of foresight as a generator of solutions to potential social conflicts

Based on the regional experiences in Latin America and the previous studies carried out (PAPEP, 2012; Sanchez, 2012; Suarez,
1989), we can see the existence of long-term social demands throughout the continent, for which the political and government actors
have not proposed solutions. In this process, other social actors present questions to the legitimacy of the system and explicit requests
to participate in this type of decision that concerns them as stakeholders. From this, it is possible to infer a system of social conflicts due
to the absence of participatory and long-term territorial planning that can be explained from the conceptual view that the Collective
Action Theory gives us. In this, the individual spontaneously and rationally, would not seek the collective good over their particular
interests but would see what is necessary to maximize their benefit, ignoring the possible collective objectives. What is clear, according
to (Olson, 1965; Ostrom, Burger, Field, Norgaard, & Policansky, 1999) is the non-existence of a possible "altruism" in the achievement
of social action for the achievement of a common goal. The individuals collaborate in the function of the positive incentives that they
can appreciate in the short and medium-term.
Such theoretical appraisals justify that it is the government that must reveal adequate incentives to promote collective action that
leads to the achievement of public benefit goals. Still, it is our most significant lack at the regional level. Governments with the ability
to regulate social interactions and pressures (perverse interest groups that promote abuse of power and corruption relationships) for
the common good are required. In this sense, in the regional development process, it is crucial not to lose sight of the concept of

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territorial ethics, where principles of efficiency and equity should regulate the interaction between ethics and regional economic
policy. The role of the Government in its different levels is fundamental to guarantee the institutional and life quality of the population,
on particular interests. (Cuervo, 2012).
The preceding is outlined in the proposed model of: "Actors and Processes for Territorial Planning and Solution to Potential Social
Conflicts" (see Fig. 1).
In this model we have two major actors: a) the Government, represented in the Central Government authorities and the authorities of
Sub-national Governments (regional, departmental, provincial or local) and b) the Population of the territory to be analyzed (repre­
sented by leaders of the civil society and other interest groups).
For the model, it is considered fundamental to minimize possible conflicts to have:

• The incorporation of territorial foresight as a support tool in the creation of a long-term vision.
• An institutional framework that guarantees the creation of country- systems with a long-term vision.
• Solid territorial planning allows the generation of medium and long-term country-objectives and the sufficient articulation of short,
medium, and long-term institutional planning programs within the national system.

The model arises when we question ourselves; if the decision-makers want to fix the situation. Therefore, the model considers the
psychological factors (cognitive bias), economic (social choice and collective action), and sociological (culture) that can make it
optimal for a specific group of actors not to solve the dilemma.
Next, we present a proposal of nine types of cognitive deviations that Liedtka (2015) presents in Table 2.
The cognitive-bias presented by Liedtka (2015) are used to explain the behaviors that we show in our proposed model (Fig. 1),
where we see that not only can affect the government authorities, but also the leaders of the population in for collaboration to define
solutions to public problems.
In the first instance, we analyze the stance of "NO” collaboration of the government actor to dissolve the cause of the public conflict
and listen to the population for the generation of a long-term shared vision we have:

a) The creation of a "subjective social reality" on the part of government leaders (topic 2.1 of Fig. 1), obeys a psychological aspect that
affects their decision making. This cognitive deviation creates a sense of superiority in this type of actor versus the view of the
population on the same phenomena.
b) The interests, perks, and corruption (topic 2.2 of Fig. 1) that in the case of the exploitation of natural resources, use or development
of critical productive infrastructure and technology (which are the main of the leading causes of social conflicts) the authorities
prefer to maintain the status quo of no action. This because of the commitment acquired with specific private interest groups such
as economic actors (as industrial sectors) linked to the knowledge and technological developers (public & private universities and
research centers) that provide them with benefits (economic or political influence).

Fig. 1. Model of Actors and Processes that identifies possible Social Conflicts.
Source: Own Elaborations.

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Table 2
Most common Cognitive Deviations (by type).
Description Consequences

Deviations by projection
A gap in egocentric empathy
The illusion of focus
Hot/cold gap
Gap say/do
The fallacy of planning
Deviation by Confirmation of
Hypothesis
Effect of Indebtedness
Deviation by Availability
Projecting the past in the future
Projection of own preferences in others
Development of exaggerated emphasis on particular elements
The emotional state of decision making at the time of the review
influences predictions and future decisions
There is no precision in the description of their preferences (related
to implementation)
Exaggerated optimism (unfounded)
Every effort is made to confirm the hypothesis of the Decision Maker
Attachment to the first possible solution
Preference for what can be imagined more easily
Failures in the Generation of new ideas
Failure in generating ideas that create value
Failure to generate ideas of general scope
Sub valuation or overestimation of ideas
There is no precision in the articulation and advice to
implement what you want and can
Exaggerated commitment to inferior ideas
Loss of information, (decisions biased by subjective
opinion confirmation search)
Reduction of options to consider
New and novel ideas are obviated.

Source: Own elaboration based on Liedtka (2015).

In the second instance, we analyzed the stance of "YES" to the collaboration of the government actor to resolve social conflicts
caused by the lack of structured dialogue with the population and that inhibits the possibility of generating a long-term territorial
vision/strategy:

a) The key actors for the dialogue are identified (topic 1.1 of Fig. 1) as industrial sectors, knowledge & technology developers, and
organized civil society. According to Solares (1996), it is enough to mention these three types of actors that we usually find as the
fundamental proposal of the functioning of the analysis and implementation of Public Policy, but in many of the social conflicts,
especially in the early stages; organized groups are created spontaneously, and sometimes there are no recognized leaders. In
organized civil society, in many cases, institutionally is weak, or it is not representative of the ideas and claims of the community. It
also happens in the industrial sectors usually linked to the government side, where they present severe difficulties in defining who /
what are the public officials and at what level they must take charge of the crisis. Also, the interaction and power relations between
these two actors (private industrials and government officials) is a crucial point to consider due to its dynamism over time.
b) Inefficient methodological tools of interaction with them for the joint exploration of long-term visions of the territory (topic 1.2 of
Fig. 1). Throughout the region, fundamentally in the hands of the Ombudsman’s Offices or bodies of the Executive Branch in charge
of the prevention of social conflicts, various methodologies have been created or adapted to have a dialogue with the population
(Office of the Ombudsman, 2017). However, fundamentally these have been applied once the social conflict has erupted and are
aimed at calming the population with short-term measures, lacking a horizon, and a systemic vision. In other cases, governments do
not use any methodology and confront the problem in an improvised manner.

In the third instance, we analyzed the position of "NO" collaboration of the actor Population, to solve the possible conflict with the
Government and to be able to generate shared visions under the principle of governance.

c) Distrust of organized civil society before the Government (topic 4.1 of Fig. 1). Commonly, the population distrusts that the Gov­
ernment intends to fix the problem (Calderón, 2012) disinterestedly. This delegitimization of the government as "the" relevant actor
of the system to achieve the common good obeys to a cognitive deviation of a sociological and cultural type in Latin America.
d) Personal interests or economic groups (topics 4.2 and 4.3 of Fig. 1). For the first case (topic 4.2) the reluctance to collaborate for the
solution to the social problem is based on the search for personal benefits of the leaders of the population, usually related to power:
where social conflict is used as a platform for the political launching of regional leaders or individual economic interests are sought.
In the second case (topic 4.3), it concerns the omission of action and collaboration on the part of social leaders in the search for
public solutions. In the region, there have been cases of influence on these actors of national organizations (political parties, among
others) and foreign organizations (NGOs, foreign competition, foreign governments, between others).

Finally, we analyzed the position of "YES" to the collaboration of the actor Population, who seek to solve discrepancies generated
with the Government but fail to do so. Here are two explanations:

e) The aspirations of social actors are not listening for the construction of a vision/strategy for the future (topic 3.1 of Fig. 1). It is the
Government that does not pay attention to them and reflects the behaviors already posted by corruption, technical failures, and old
governmental practices.
f) Social actors are not listened to in their aspirations for the construction of a vision/strategy for the future (topic 3.2 of Fig. 1). When
their claims are heard, the social actors resort to the escalation of violence. The causes are the discretionary management of po­
litical factors, institutional failures, and a process of tendential frustration of civil society.

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3. The application of Foresight in territories: Points to consider in Long-Term Subnational planning

3.1. Particularities of the application of Latin American Voluntary Prospective Model (MPVLA) at territorial level

The fundamental objective of the territorial foresight is to support medium- and long-term decision making (Mojica, 2005) . It
involves three parts: the understanding of the present, of the environment, and the determination of the factors that would originate
the change in the territory.
In this section we present a series of considerations that can be extrapolated to any exercise of territorial foresight in the world,
based on the Latin American Voluntary Prospective Model (MPVLA, by its acronym in Spanish) (Vargas-Lama & Osorio, 2018):

1) Theoretical / Conceptual Framework of the Phenomenon (territory): To carry out the development of an efficient territorial
vision, it is necessary to understand the territory in its anthropocentric concept and from the development point of view. In this
sense, the use of a relevant theoretical framework is the fundamental basis for identifying the concepts that help explain the be­
haviors observed in the phenomenon of study and finally propose the variables that should be used unequivocally for the mea­
surement and understanding of the study system (Vargas-Lama & Villarraga-Ortiz, 2019). It is common that in the majority of
territorial foresight analyzes, we start from an exclusively empirical perspective without formal support for the theory. Still, this
practice leads to a false identification of the research problem, as well as its dimensioning.
2) State of the Art: It is advisable to carry out an analysis of the environment (Contextual Framework) as complete as possible of the
latest events, which are relevant in the long term of the territory.
a In the case of subnational territories, these are subject to a larger political unit, so it is necessary to know in detail the National
Development Plan to which it is articulated to determine what would be the contribution to the plan from the territory and which
they are the particularities of the political unit to analyze. So, it is essential to consider the following inductive questions:
i What is the situation of the near and distant environment? What is the interaction with the appropriate geographic and
economic environment? What are the main opportunities and threats that arise? Are there significant short- and medium-term
risks for the territory? Have risk minimization studies been done?
ii If there are natural resources that can be exploited: is there a particular opportunity cost of exploitation / non-exploitation of
specific resources? Are there estimates of the damages/benefits that exploitation can bring to the population? How is it that the
use or non-use of existing resources is related to global development? Could the people be missing the opportunity to exploit
resources that would later have no value?
b Secondly, it is essential to carry out a Competitive Surveillance analysis of the region, looking at the latest developments in the
world in the fields identified in the Contextual Framework analysis. This analysis is carried out with scientometrics tools (analysis
of scientific articles, patents, latest policy documents, and relevant applications at territorial level).
3) Analysis of Trends: It serves to understand what is expected with certainty to happen in the medium term on the planet, the
continent, and the country, based on the leading global and sectoral megatrends that would impact the territory in the medium and
long term (Vargas-Lama, 2019; CEPLAN, 2014b).
4) Predictive Analysis Short / Medium Term Compiler: This step is used to systematize the previous information, which is very
important nowadays. Some organizations are developing knowledge management systems to systematize this information (Kai­
vo-oja, 2012) periodically. For the present case, we consider the methodology proposed by Yuval Atsmon, of McKinsey and
Company (McKinsey Global Institute, 2017), which consists of five steps to perform an efficient predictive analysis (Atsmon, 2016):
a Start from the momentum: The past and the present of the territory cannot be ignored, and what has been happening would
continue, at least in the short term. It is necessary to consider this for decision making in the present and understand the im­
plications of the decisions of the recent past (Vargas-Lama & Villarraga-Ortiz, 2019). Origin of information: Contextual
Framework.
b Clarify the context: We can not analyze isolated events; it is necessary to know the events that take place in the territory at
present based on the context of the environment. Origin of information: State of the Art and Trends.
c Study the inflection points: It is a mixture of science and art. To determine an impending change, it is necessary to have clarity of
the relevant information for decision making. At this point, from the foresight, it is imperative to know the so-called future events
(Miklos and Tello, 1991; Mojica, 2005), as well as the weak signals (Ansoff, 1975) and the black swans (Taleb, 2007) so as not to
leave them to take into account. All of the above in combination with global trends. Origin of information: State of the Art and
Trends.
d Consider the interactions of the system: We can not take any phenomenon in isolation. Trying to predict the behavior of a
"segment of society" or the "economy of the territory" in isolation would give us a partial analysis and erroneous judgments. It is
fundamental to know how the system of territorial interactions works in all aspects and how it interacts with other systems.
Origin of Information: Theoretical Framework, State of the Art, and Trends.
e Recreate the past: To understand the territorial dynamics in the following steps, it is worthwhile to prove the multivariate re­
lationships in a model of recreation of the past (this is one of the most deterministic steps of the McKinsey model).
5) Factors of Change and Strategic Variables: In the determination of a territorial development model, the most relevant is the
identification of the factors that can generate a change in the territory (Vargas-Lama & Villarraga-Ortiz, 2019). For a territorial
vision, much of the necessary information would come from numerals 1 to 4, in a complementary way to the tools of the voluntarist
foresight, such as Marc Gidget’s competency tree (Gandara & Osorio, 2014), the matrix of changes expected, the matrix of pre­
conceptions to be able to understand the dynamics between the capacities and the probable products of the territory. In the case of

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F. Vargas-Lama and F.-J. Osorio-Vera Futures 123 (2020) 102625

the Strategic Variables, the analysis of interactions that derive from the analysis of the matrices of crossed impacts allows knowing
the causal and systemic relationship between them. This step requires the participation of thematic opinion experts, who know
in-depth the region in reference and their interaction with the country and the world.
6) Generation of Territorial Future Scenarios and Choice of Alternative Betting Scenario: In this issue, there are no particu­
larities of a regional analysis concerning a standard foresight analysis. It is necessary to specify that in the case of Territorial
Scenarios, we must try to be as accurate as possible as for the narration of these (storytelling) and having at hand all the data that
supports the interaction of the specific change factors / strategic variables for each one of them. The “Bet Scenarios” must be
ambitious, transforming society, but achievable. The Bet Scenario is in itself the Vision. Once completed, the process must be
socialized with the population. Guaranteeing the appropriation of it would guarantee the search for its realization (Mojica, 2005;
Mojica, 1999a).
7) Lookout Plan: Finally, this paper aims to identify the determinants of social innovation for territorial development, applied to the
Latin-American case, by using an analysis of Future Alternative Scenarios based on institutional capacities, through the study of its
normative competences, organizational, administrative and political capacities. In this sense, this paper aims for a methodological
analysis of the critical features of local development implementation that promote development at a regional level and based in a
Road-Map for the long-term view (that in the MPVLA is called Lookout Plan).
a Currently, it is acknowledged that the local-regional dimension of development is given in terms of economic, environmental,
technological, social, institutional, and cultural criteria, driven "bottom-up," though consensual and participative processes.
b The emergence of regional development as a sustainable growth process implies going beyond the idea- necessary but not
enough-, of a simple list of "strategic processes." Is it necessary to identify the factors that can "unbind" the encompassing
development process of a locality, and as a consequence of the region, materializing a joint development project (Osorio, 2008) .
c The maximization of endogenous development translates into self-management and the "empowering" of development processes
on behalf of local agents, the aim is to establish a shared vision of the regional future, which implies consensus as a priority
component to enhance the factors the community relies on in search of endogenous development. The current vision regarding
endogenous development constitutes a useful tool for the interpretation of the dynamic between regions to propose measures of
public policy that stimulate growth in the context of extensive interaction.
d In this sense, the Lookout Plan is the accurate instrument to take into account (in terms of a systemic and a medium- and long-term
view) the different capitals can be visualized (environmental, productive, human, informational, and social) to contrast them
against institutional capacities. Results could be reflected in an increase of innovative capacities in governments and the
strengthening of clear targets, as well as in networked relationships with non-governmental actors (private sector and com­
munity organizations).

The Lookout Plan involves a review of all alternative scenarios. In each of them, the non-realization of the value sought in each
variable (the “zero” values thereof) is explored. As it is evident, the divergence between the presented value of the variable and the
value that it takes in the betting scenario (which would mostly imply having a value of “one”) generates a distortion that moves us
away from the ideal sought (Vargas-Lama & Villarraga-Ortiz, 2019). In the Lookout Plan, the causes that lead the variables to present

Table 3
Comparative Phase Analysis of MPVLA and CLA
PHASES OF THE LATIN AMERICAN COMPARABLE CLA PHASE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION & COMMENTS
VOLUNTARIST PROSPECTIVE MODEL
(MPVLA)

Conceptual/ Theoretical Framework of the
phenomenon
State of the art
Trend Analysis
Short/medium term predictive analysis
Factors of change and strategic variables
Generation of Future Scenarios and Choice
of Bet Scenario
Litany, Social Causes
Social Causes
Litany, Social Causes, Discourse
Analysis/Worldview
Litany, Social Causes
Discourse Analysis/Worldview
Litany, Social Causes, Discourse
Analysis/ Worldview, Myths/
Metaphors
Knowledge of the phenomenon from its characterization and theoretical
contrast is the first step in a review of futures in the MPVLA. In the CLA,
these steps are adopted in the Litany and Social Causes phases.
The state of the art is closely related to the phase of Social Causes. Since, in
a complementary way to the previous stage, they allow an in-depth
analysis of the consequences.
At this stage, in the MPVLA, there is not only an approach based on
underlying trends, but a whole work of Signs of the Future, which includes
unplanned events (Black Swans) and Weak Signals. To achieve this, we
have to consider a more in-depth analysis than usual and assume the
existence of alternative points.
Very related to phases 1 and 2 of the MPVLA analysis, this analysis seeks to
complement the preliminary environment information.
Although in CLA there is no direct reference to the search for change
factors and strategic variables, in the Speech Analysis / Worldview phase,
there is a search for differential points, which can cause a real break in the
phenomenon of study. That is closely related to the Discourse Analysis &
Worldview phases of the CLA
The scenarios generated with the MPVLA can be similar to those of the first
three phases of the CLA in their vast majority; however, also they can
reach the fourth level, that of the Myths and Metaphors since there is a
work that is carried out from the French Voluntary Prospective for the
elimination of preconceptions (Godet, 1997, 2001; Mojica, 2005).

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F. Vargas-Lama and F.-J. Osorio-Vera Futures 123 (2020) 102625

value other than the one sought are explored. That happens to avoid the causes of this behavior, if possible, or in the worst case, be
prepared if they occur and be clear about the consequences. With this logic, the Lookout Plan not only becomes a Road Map, which
transforms the normative scenario into reality but also develops a risk analysis, which in the case of the territorial approach is funda­
mental, given the multiple opportunities and threats that may arise in its implementation.

3.2. Comparison of the Latin American Voluntary Prospective Model (MPVLA) and the Caused Layered Analysis Model (CLA)

As is known by the majority of practitioners of future studies, the Caused Layered Analysis Model (or CLA), is one of the most used
today in both academia and applied studies, as an alternative to the evolution of the traditional schools of the French Voluntary
Prospective and that of the Anglo-Saxon Foresight. It is based on post-structuralist logic and consists of a series of phases or levels of
analysis: litany, social causes, discourse/worldview, and myths/metaphors (Inayatullah, 1998).
In Table 3, we present a comparison regarding the scope and coverage of what is indicated by the Latin American Voluntary Pro­
spective Model (MPVLA) and its correlation with that shown in the CLA model to be able to make a parallel as far as possible from the
conceptual aspect.
As could be seen in Table 3, these methods are not exactly comparable, since they have different ontological structures; however,
they show many degrees of complementarity and parallelism, both in their structure and in their execution. There is an epistemological
closeness as in some methodological way in the way of facing the topic with different visions and tools, trying to reflect new views
regarding the object of study. Finally, there is also a need in both cases to understand the temporal scope in the past, present, and future
of the phenomenon, trying to systematize the understanding of each of them (Inayatullah, 1998; Godet, 1997; Mojica, 2005).

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

• The persistence of the vicious circle, which hinders the change of the administrative structure of the State and promotes the
stagnation of regional productivity, must be understood from a political, socioeconomic and cultural point of view, so that such a
vicious circle is created by influence of four elements that feed themselves, namely: i) Short-term view for Public Policies; ii) the
excesses of individual rationality, iii) the lack of common referents; iv) and the absence of collective and integrative projects.
• Three premises could help to understand the origin of this phenomenon:
1 There is a gap between the increase in environmental challenges in recent years and the speed of response. The symptoms are
chance, instability, and a specific general setback in social indicators. But in the end, there is a capacity gap between decision-
makers and operational managers of the Public Administration, produced by the rise of international standards and the slow and
poorly response capacities.
2 A little manifestation of the capacity for innovation of new decision-making models and organizational practices that strengthen
institutions.
3 The empirical situation manifests many dangerous mistake elements in itself because of the decision-making process that relies
on institutional and cultural aspects linked to how power is conceived and operated in the Public Administration.
• The usefulness of linking cognitive deviations (cognitive bias) as an explanatory basis for the possible reactions of key actors in the
process of constructing a vision of the future for the sustainable development of a territory is the recognition of harmful practices,
outside the "rule of law" and without the expression of governmental innovation.
• Once we conceive an influence of the social sphere in the decision-making processes for the Territorial Future, which reflect their
demands and integrate into the form of organization, we begin to talk about actors focused on institutionalism, a concept contributed
by Guy Peters (2003). In it, the institutions are interpreted as sets of rules and incentives that establish the conditions for limited
rationality and establish a political space within which many interdependent actors can function. That suggests that the
decision-making processes of a political system present an expression of methods based on rational choice where profit maximi­
zation is the primary motivation of individuals. In this way, individuals recognize that their personal goals can be effectively
achieved through institutional action.
• Foresight and future studies are the best alternatives to support the generation of future regional visions. Them allows us to escape
from the natural effect of linear analysis in the appreciation of the possible future, as well as the consideration of the creative
component of the " opinion experts "that intervene in the creation of the future commitment for sustainable territorial development.
• An analysis of territorial foresight has its dimensions to consider.
1 The generation of futures for the regions requires the compilation of data and, with it, the adequate construction of the relevant
information (strategic).
2 The use of a practical methodology to achieve optimal decision-making in the territory despite the presence of "limited ratio­
nality" (reflected in information, economic and time constraints).
3 Finally, territorial foresight recognizes the importance of the participation of the critical change agents on a territorial gover­
nance perspective.
• The creation and maintenance of public policies over time (state policies rather than government policies) and the analysis pro­
cesses for their formulation and decision-making that are at their base (in which we must consider the population as a key actor) are
fundamental, both nationally and territorially.

The main recommendation derived from the present study is to continue the research in the following topics:

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F. Vargas-Lama and F.-J. Osorio-Vera Futures 123 (2020) 102625

• The short-term nature of public policies for development.

• The impact of sociological and psychological factors on long-term decision making.
• The field of prevention of social conflicts in Emerging Economies.
• The use of a systemic & long-term view Roadmaps for the Public Policy implementation

Acknowledgments

We want to thank the School of Management of Universidad Externado de Colombia for its cooperation and especially to Dr.
Alejandro Beltran (Dean) and Dr. Carlos Restrepo (Research Director) for their full support. We want to express our gratitude to Dr.
Francisco Jose Mojica (Director of the Center for Strategic Management and Foresight) one of the most important figures in Latin
American Foresight for his constant guidance.

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