Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-05 Rev. 0 / 15-08-2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 3F
Low Pressure Area
Issued at 5:00 AM, 14 November 2023

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST SOUTHEAST OF PALAU WEAKENS INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA

Location of Center (4:00 AM)

The Low Pressure Area was estimated based on all

available data at 1,620 km East of Southeastern
Mindanao (5.6°N, 140.2°E) (OUTSIDE PAR)

Intensity

Central pressure of 1006 hPa

Present Movement

South southwestward at 10 km/h

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

 This Low Pressure Area is forecast move erratically and may meander near or around its present position in the next
24 hours as it remains highly disorganized. Unfavorable environment may prevent this weather disturbance from
significantly organizing during the same period. Afterwards, a slight improvement in the environmental conditions will
allow this disturbance to reorganize and re-develop into a tropical depression. During the same period, the system is
forecast to accelerate towards the west or west northwestward is forecast to occur. It may enter the PAR region late
tomorrow or on early Thursday.
 Should the disturbance re-develop within or enter the PAR as a tropical depression, the domestic name “KABAYAN”
will be assigned to it. Within the PAR, this weather system will continue tracking westward until Friday while slowly
intensifying. A more northwestward turn during the weekend over the waters east of Mindanao.
 Regardless of its development trend, the interaction between this disturbance and a possible shear line related to the
forecast surge of the Northeast Monsoon may result in heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of Mindanao beginning
on Friday and over Bicol Region and most of Visayas (especially the eastern portion) beginning on Saturday.
 Gale warnings for coastal waters are currently being issued due to risky sea conditions caused by the surge
of the Northeast Monsoon. Aside from rough to very rough seas resulting from the ongoing and forecast surge of
the Northeast Monsoon over most of the seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas in the next five
days, this tropical cyclone is also forecast to bring moderate to rough seas over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao
beginning on Friday. Mariners of small seacraft, especially of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels, are
advised to continue monitoring for updates.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to
continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless re-development occurs, this is the final tropical cyclone advisory.

DOST-PAGASA

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Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

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