Global Index Briefing:

Japan MSCI
Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 30, 2023

Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

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thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Japan MSCI
Stock Price Index 1
Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles 2
Annual Growth Squiggles 3
Margins & NERI 4
Forward Growth & Valuation 5

November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Japan MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Stock Price Index 11/30
Figure 1.
1300 1300
JAPAN MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
(ratio scale)
1150 1150

1000 1000

850 850

700 700

550 550

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400 400
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average.

Source: MSCI.

Figure 2.
3650 3650
3150 JAPAN MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 3150
x30
2650 Japan MSCI Index 2650

2150 11/30/23 2150

x20
Blue Angels Implied Price Index*
1650 11/23/23 1650

1150 1150
x10

650 650

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150 150
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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 Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles
Figure 3.
1500 1500
JAPAN MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE
(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

1400 1400
11/23

Consensus Forecasts
1300 1300
Annual estimates
Forward revenues*

1200 1200
23

22
1100 1100

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1000 1000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.
105 105
JAPAN MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE 11/23
90 (analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale) 23 90

75 22 75

60 60

45 45

30 30

Consensus Forecasts
Annual estimates
Forward earnings*

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15 15
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 2 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Japan MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Annual Growth Squiggles
Figure 5. 22
15 15
JAPAN MSCI ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS
(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)
21

13
10 10

17 18
5 5

12 14 24
23
11
0 0
2011 (1.3) 2019 (-1.8)
15
2012 (2.3) 2020 (-7.9) 19
2013 (10.6) 2021 (12.6) 16
2014 (2.3) 2022 (15.5)
-5 2015 (-1.2) 2023 (1.8) -5
2016 (-2.8) 2024 (2.2)
2017 (6.4)
2018 (6.3) 20
Latest data thru 11/23/23 yardeni.com
-10 -10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.
50 50
JAPAN MSCI ANNUAL EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS
(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)
capped at 40% due to extreme values
40 13 21 40

12 17
30 30

20 20

16
20 23
10 10
14 24
22

0 15 0
18
2011 (-26.9) 2018 (-3.3)
-10 2012 (34.7) 2019 (-18.3) -10
2013 (40.0) 2020 (11.8)
2014 (7.7) 2021 (40.0)
19
-20 2015 (1.0) 2022 (5.1) -20
2016 (13.3) 2023 (10.9)
Latest data thru 11/23/23 11 2017 (34.1) 2024 (6.8) yardeni.com
-30 -30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Japan MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Margins & NERI
Figure 7.
8 8
JAPAN MSCI PROFIT MARGIN 23
(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
11/23
7 7
22

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3
Consensus Forecasts
Annual estimates
2 Forward profit margin* (7.3) 2

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1 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.
15 15
JAPAN MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

10 10

5 5
Nov
0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20

NERI
-25 Sep 4.31 -25
Oct 3.83
Nov 2.69
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-30 -30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage
of the total number of forward earnings estimates.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Japan MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Forward Growth & Valuation
Figure 9.
70 70
JAPAN MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG
(percent) STEG capped at 60%
60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10
11/23

0 0

LTEG* (10.5)
-10 STEG* (8.0) -10
STRG* (2.1)
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-20 -20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term
revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 10.
65 65
JAPAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE*

Forward P/E (14.3)

55 55

45 45

35 35

25 25

15 11/23 15

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5 5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / November 30, 2023 / Global Index Briefing: Japan MSCI Yardeni Research, Inc.
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