Study Guide

Study Guide
POPULATION STUDIES
CODE 4684 UNITS: 1 -9
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY, SOCIAL WORK &

POPULATION STUDIES
ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY

ISLAMABAD
Study Guide
Unit 1-9 Code 4684
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY, SOCIAL WORK &

POPULATION STUDIES
(All rights reserved with the Publisher)
Editor Mansoor Sattar

Year of Printing 2012
Publisher Allama Iqbal Open University
Quantity 500
Price Rs. 30/-
Printer Rorkee Printing Press
Proof Reading M.S Khaki
C O U R SE TEAM
Chairman: Prof-Dr. Muhammad Iqbal Saif
Course Committee: 1. Prof. Dr. Muhammad Anwar,

Punjab University, Lahore.
2. Prof. Dr. Karam Ellahi,

Peshawar,University,
Peshawar. ^
3. Prof. Ishfaq Hussain Mirza,

Arid Agricultural University,
Rawalpindi.
4. Dr. Muhammad Latif Virk,

UGC, Islamabad.
Review: Dr. Muhammad ’qbal Saif
Course Editor: Abdul Wadood
Course Development
Coordinator: Dr. Rukhsana Masood
Course Coordinator: Syed Imran Haider
>*?
3
C O N TEN T LIST
PART I
1 ORGANIZATION OF THE COURSE

.1.1 Structure of the Course
1.2 How to use Reading Material
1.3 . Study Chart
1.4 How to Attend a Tutorial
1.5 Method of Assessment
PART II
1 COURSE INTRODUCTION
2 COURSE OBJECTIVES
Unit No. 1 THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY
Unit No. 2.,. SOURCES OF DATA
Unit No! 3 THEORIES OF POPULATION
Unit No. 4 SOCIAL THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH

Unit No. 5 FUNDAMENTAL METHODS FOR ANALYSIS OF
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
Unit No. 6 AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION
Unit No. 7 POPULATION OF PAKISTAN
Unit No. 8 DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE:

FERTILITY
Unit No. 9 SOCIO ECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECTING '

FERTILITY
PART ONE
ORGANISATION OF THE COURSE
1.1 Structure o f the Course
The course has been Structured to make it as easy as possible for you to.
complete the required course work. This course consists of eighteen units. Each
unit consists of a study material of one week, if you study 12-16 hours in a week.
This will include studying the prescribed reading material and carrying out the
various self-learning assessments.
We have organized this course to enable you to acquire the skill of self-
learning. You will find a course introduction at the end of this part, which will
provide you an overall .view of the course. This study guide has been written to
enhance the foundation of sociological ideas and issues, which are presented in
the textbooks. For each unit, out line provides a basis for organizing segments of
information. Specific learning objectives are given which identify the. basic
knowledge; explanation, comparison and understanding a student should have
after studying the unit. A section of the unit consists of a brief review in the form
of paragraph. An effort was made to simplify those concepts, which are covered
in the compulsory readings, by giving examples of our own society. Hence, the
study guide is intended to be a concise preview and learning tool to accompany
compulsory reading. So the contents are introduced briefly in the study guide. '
For each unit prescribed reading material has been classified as compulsory
and suggested readings. •Studying all this material is compulsory for successful
completion of the course. This study guide is based on prescribed reading. After
listing required reading, we have given you a few self-assessment questions and
activities. These questions are meant to facilitate you in understanding and self-
assessment that how much you have learned.
For this course, ‘Fortnightly Tutorials’ are arranged in University’s Regional
Study Centres. These tutorials are hot formal lectureis given in any formal
university,'rather these are meant for group and individual discussion with the
course tutor to facilitate you. So before going to attend a tutorial, prepare yourself
to discuss course material with your tutor.
After completing the study of first 4 units the ‘Assignment No. 1 is due.
Second, third and fourth assignments are due after the completion of every next
four units. Last 2 units will be covered in the final examination along with first 16
units. '^
1.2 How To Use Residing Material

As this is a course through distance education, so we have organized the
required course work, in the following manner to help you in evolving a self-
learning process in absence of formal classroom teaching.
1. A detail course description

2. Objectives of the unit
3. The major theme of the unit is divided into sub-themes. They are
listed in the beginning of every unit. A brief and simplified
introduction of major topic is given in the study guide so that you
can get acquainted with the material.
4. Required readings for each unit is listed.
5 At the end of every unit we have given you few self-assessment
questions for each topic or theme. These questions are not only
meant to facilitate you in understanding the required reading but
- 6
also to provide you an opportunity to assess yourself how far you
have learned.
Although you choose your own way of studying the required reading material,
you are advised to follow the steps, which are given in the study chaft-
1.3 Study Chart '

Stepl. For clear identification of your reading material, thoroughly
read description of the course.
Step 2. Read carefully the way the reading material is to be used.
Step 3. Complete the first quick reading of your required study

materials.
Step 4 / Carefully make the second reading and note down some of
the points you were not able to fully understand.
Step 5. Carry out the self-assessment question with the help of
. your study material.
Step 6. Revise your notes. It is quite possible that many of those
points which you did not understand previously become
clearer to you during the process of Carrying out self
assessment questions '
Step 7. Prepare yourself for the tutorial meeting, i.e. note down the
points for discussion with other-members of your group and
with your course tutor.
Step 8. Make a third and final reading of your study material. At
this stage, students are also advised to keep in view the
homework assignments. These assignments are compulsory
./S'
for the successful completion of the course.
1.4 How To Attend A Tutorial
Before attending the tutorial you are required to prepare yourself in the
following manner to get maximum benefit. The first tutorial is an ‘introductory
tutorial’ for which you are required to do following work:
Step 1. Go through first part of the study guide, which includes:
i. Organization of the course ' .
•s
ii. Structure of the program

iii. How to use the reading material and
iv. Assessment
Step 2. • Read carefully the course introduction 2-3 times to have a

better understanding of the course. It will give you an
overview of the whole course. Make notes of those points
- which you could not fully understand or wish to discuss
with your course tutor.
In tutorials 2-9 you will complete course work containing
18 study units. The way we have arranged these tutorials, it
will give you an opportunity to discuss two units in one
' ' tutorial.
Please see schedule of the semester.
Step 3. Read summary of the main themes of the concerned units

around which the units is constructed.
Step 4. Study required reading and make notes of those pqgats you
are not able to fully understand and wish to discuss with
your course tutor.
8
1.5 Methods of Assessment
For each course the registered student will be assessed as following:
ASSIGNMENTS
Assignments are those, written exercises which students are

required to complete while being at homes or places of
work after having studied their required material prescribed
in the study guide. They are designed in a way to motivate
the students in reading the required readings and enabling
them to relate their reading with their own objective. For
this course you will receive ‘FOUR’ assignments.
After completion; you will send these assignments to your

tutor within a time schedule for assessment and necessary
guidance. The tutor is supposed to return the same after
marking and providing necessary academic guidance and
supervision.
The successful completion of assignments will make you

eligible to take final examination to be held at the end of
the semester.
To qualify each assignment, you have to obtain a minimum

40% marks.
WORKSHOPS
Workshops are compulsory component of the M.Sc
programme. These will be organized by the university near
the end of every semester for every course. Detail of these
workshops will be sent to you with the course materials or
during the study period.
FINAL ASSESSMENTS
Final examination (a three hour written examination will
take place at the end of the semester).
These two components contribute 30:70 to get students
final course grade.
The condition to qualify each component are given below:
I. A minimum of 40% in each assignment
ii A minimum of 33% of the final written examination
iii An aggregate of 40% of the both components i.e.
assignment and. final examination
iv • To take final examination the student has to pass
assignment component
The grade will be determined as follow
40% - 54% C
55% - 69% B
70% - Above A
PART TWO
Course Introduction
No matter who you are, demographic events are influencing your life, and the
more you know about then, the better off you will be. You will find the study of
population to be of more than academic interest as you discover how your own
lives are affected even by distant population events. For example, population
pressure of any country can become a major obstacle to social and economic
development even if is not a pressure on a concerns family. In order to understand
the impact of population growth on your own life and on the nature of the world,
you must first know how populations are studied.
As you know demography is the scientific study of population. It draws upon
several components of population, including size, composition and distribution. In
unit No 1 you will study about the scope of this subject. Unit No 2 & 3 consist
different theories of population.
Much demographic work tends to be statistical. All the industrialized states
today gather and analyse basic statistics about their population by carrying out
censuses. Beside this, records of births, deaths, marriages and divorces are
gathered through a registration system maintained by government agencies. This
record is called vital statistics. You will study about these sources of data in unit
No. 4 -
Population information is best communicated in terms of numbers and rates.
Demographers use census, birth and death records for explanation of demographic
change and trends. They shape these data into manageable forms such as rate,
ratios or proportion. In unit No. 5 you will study how to calculate these rates and
ratios and why they are important in population studies.
11
Age and sex composition 's generally used to illustrate the population
structure of a society. A population’s age structure has a great deal to do with how
that population lives. Developing countries have relatively young population
while most developed countries have old or aging population. Age structure of
any population also indicates future pressure on that population. Unit No. 6 deals
with this issue.
In unit No 7 you will study the situation of population in Pakistan Fertility,
mortality and migration are the basic elements of demographic analysis. They are
the population processes that lead to change in the demographic structure and
©
often in the social, economic and political structure of society as well. In unit No.
8 to 12 each of these population processes will discuss and different factors will
analyse in detail, which are responsible for the change of these processes.
Urbanization in the twentieth century is a-global process. In all industrialized
countries most of the population lives in urban area. This trend has drawn third
world countries into it also. Modem urban life affects everyone, not only those
who live in cities themselves. We shall study different causes of urbanization and
the effect of urbanization on people’s life in unit No. 13 •-
Marital status and age at marriage are proximate determinant of fertility. The
lower age at marriage is generally associated with higher level of fertility, because
women are exposed to the risk of pregnancy throughout their reproductive lives
usually defined as ages 15 to 49. In unit No. 14 we will study this phenomena of
population. . -
Unit No. 15 & 16 will cover the social indicator and their relation to
population growth while in unit No. 17& 18 we will study different population
policies and fertility behaviour in Pakistan.
Course Objectives
To provide students with: ^
1. An ability to understand, social phenomena of population and the impact
of the growth rate in the human population on the society.
2. A knowledge of the various approaches and traditions within the study of ;

population.. \
3. The information about population, which is technically accurate, culturally

appropriate and sensitive!
1*
UNI T- 1
THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF

DEMOGRAPHY
v\
Writer: Dr. Rukhsana Masood
Reviewer: Dr. Iqbal Saif
.•>«** -
1- THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY
1.1 Introduction
In this unit we will study the nature and scope of demography and
population. As you Know, demography is a scientific study of population. This
unit introduce you the nature, scope and the subject matter of demography. The
unit also enables you to see how demography penetrates in other social sciences.
1.2 Objectives
After studying this unit you will be able to:
1. Define demography.
2. Describe the importance of population.
3. Explain the relationship between population studies and other social
sciences.
1.3 Major Topics

1. Definition of Demqgraphy and Population Studies
2. Nature and Scope of Demography
3. Population Studies and Social Sciences
1.4 Definition of Demography

Demography is a scientific study of population. This term was invented
about century and a half ago, at the time when states were beginning to keep
official statistics on the nature and distribution of their, population. Multilingual
Demographic Dictionary defines ‘demography’ as ‘the scientific study of human
population, primarily with respect to their size, structure and development’.
15
According to Thompson, demography is the empirical, statistical and
mathematical study of human population. It focuses its attention on three rather
commonplace and readily observable human phenomena: (a) change in.
population size (growth and decline), (b) the composition of population, and (c)
the distribution of population in space (Thompson 1953:-1).
According to Bogue, demography is a quantitative study of five
“demographic processes”: fertility, mortality, marriage, migration, and social
mobility. He further explains that these five processes are continuously at work
within the population, determining size, composition, and the distribution, and" if
there is a change in size, composition, or distribution, these are the components
or mechanisms by which the change occurs.
He also gives a precise definition as follows Demography is the statistical
and mathematical study of the size, composition and spatial distribution of
human populations, and of changes over time in these aspects through the
operation of the five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, and social
mobility. Although it maintains a continuous descriptive and comparative
.
analysis of trends, in each of these processes and in their net result, its long-run
goal is to develop a body of theory to explain the events that is charts and
compares (Bogue, 1969: p.1-2),
. Much demographic work tends to be statistical. All the industrialized
countries today gather and analyse basic statistics about their population by
carrying out censuses. Censuses are systematic surveys designed to find out
about the whole population of a country. The data collected through these
censuses are not always accurate even in developed countries. In many third
world countries governments find it even more difficult to acquire an accurate,
picture of their population. Despite of this fact, the census is the primary,
mechanism for collecting population information. The constitution of the United.
States and most other co-a; fries require that a census be held every ten years in
order to see the population trends.. In addition, other government surveys
provide up-to-date information on commercial developments, educational
trends, industrial expansion, agricultural practices and the structure of such
groups as children, the elderly, the labour force, religious groups etc.
Demographers seek to know the level and trends in population size and its
components. They search for explanations o f demographic change and their
implications for societies. For example, the results of many researches show that
in the developing countries, mortality decline had resulted primarily from public
health and sanitation programmes. Researches also show that mortality decline
initially had a positive effect on fertility, thus causing rapid population growth in
the developing countries. Similarly many studies show that poverty and high
fertility are strongly related to the low economic and social status of women. All
these demographic studies help government to develop their action plan
according to their population situation in a country.
For the detail of scope and the subject matter of demography please study
required readings. The reading also enables you to see how demography
penetrates in other social sciences.
1.5 Self-Assessment Questions

Q.l Define demography. Discuss what is the difference between macro
and micro demography. - • *
Q. 2 Demography is customarily treated as a branch of sociology. Why?

Discuss.
.Q.3 Analyse the role of demography in economic planning.
1.6 Required Reading
Sinha, V.C. and E. Zacharia Elements o f Demography, Allied Publishers
Private Limited, New Delhi (1984) Page 1-19.
UNIT- 2
SOURCES OF DATA
Writer: D r. Rukhsana Masood

19
2- SOURCES OF DATA
2.1 Introduction
Demographic facts and figures are assembled on the basis of the observation.
The observation requires sufficient skill, knowledge, expertise and judgement.
The demographic materials are assembled with the aid of census, registration
and survey, which require proper knowledge and skill. In this unit you will study
about all those procedures, which demographers adopt to collect the data for any
population.
2.2 Objectives
After study this unit you will be able to

1. Explain how populations are studied.
2. Identify basic terms and sources of data used in population studies
3. Elaborate the importance of different methods of data collection.
2.3 Major Topics ;
1. Population Censuses n
- ' t
i
2. Vital Registration System

3. Sample Surveys
4. Population Projection
5. Purpose of Data Collection -
2.4 Population Censuses
The raw materials of demography are data collected in censuses, surveys,
registration systems and elsewhere. They can be provided in a vast variety of
y ways but divided into three fundamentally different forms. First, there are data
collected in population census. A census produces a record of individual at a
particular time. It yields a static, cross-sectional picture of the population stock,
its size and structure as it was on census day.‘Comparisons within or between
censuses usually involve either absolute numbers or, frequently, the calculation
of proportions. A census of population may be defined as the total process of
collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic, and social data
pertaining to all persons in a country at a specified time or times.
2.5 Registration Systems
Second, there are the data usually collected by registration systems. The
data produced are the record of events during a particular time interval usually a-
year. The vital events recorded include births, deaths, migration, marriage and
divorce. They are essentially dynamic in nature, because they give information
on flows over time. In the registration of these events, certain pertinent
characteristics about the people involved are also obtained. For example in the
i registration of births,: data of the sex of the baby, its caste, generally the age of
the mother, birth order of the baby, place of birth, religion of the parents and so
forth’hre also recorded. In the case of death registration, *age and sex of the
! deceased are always recorded.
2.6 Sample Surveys
Third, there are small sample surveys. By using a carefully selected sample
of a few thousand people demographers often gather data in more detail. Sample
surveys are comparatively less costly than census and they can provide the
social, psychological, economic, and, even physical data, which are necessary to
understand why things are as they are. Such surveys provide answers of many
‘why’ rather than just ‘what’. For example data' from Fertility Survey of
Pakistan and Contraceptive Prevalence Survey of Pakistan have contributed
substantially to our knowledge that why people of Pakistan, have high fertility
; rate.' ■ . .v
Sample survey can investigate specific topics in depth. They are just like
fixing flesh on the bones provided by'census and vital registration. In this unit
you will study the detail of all these sources of data, their ways of collections
and their importance for social sciences. <
*
Population Projection '

There is another way to obtain data for* any population, i.e. population
projection. Demographers are called on not only to furnish data about the
preseftt size and composition of the populations and their past development, but
also to estimate their future trend. Computation of future changes in population
numbers, given certain assumption about^future trends in the rates of fertility,
mortality and migration is called population projection. The accuracy of
population projection depends upon the accuracy of the population .data
available and the accuracy of the assumptions made about changing level of
mortality, fertility and migration. It is a truism that projections are both always
right and wrong: right in the formal sense that .the projection is simply a
mathematical calculation, based on various assumptions, but wrong as a
predictor of future ,population size. Neither the base data nor the assumptions
can ever be 100% accurate. Haub (1987) suggests three rules of the reliability of
population projections:
The shorter the projection period, the more reliable the projection.
The larger the geographical area the more reliable the projection.
The lower the current fertility and longer the life expectancy, the smaller the
margin of error. /
Careful scrutiny of a population pyramid gives some understanding of the
process of population projection. To project ten years ahead, all the-age bands
move up two places. Obviously, people are lost through death during those years
therefore the age bands will be a little shorter, and this can be calculated on the
bases of current age specific mortality rates. New cohorts will be bom to provide
the new age bands of children. These can be calculated on the basis of current
fertility levels and the size of the child bearing group. Finally additions or
subtractions must be made for the effects of migration. Difficulties arise when
birth and death rates are changing very fast, when migration fluctuates and when
projections are being made over lonig time periods.
If a population projection is to be of value then it must be based on the right
assumptions. The correct pattern of future fertility must be selected. The
demographer must take into account the cultural attitudes to family plaining, the
status of women in the society arid their standard of education, the level of
health services and government policy on population. With regard to mortality,
one must note: the level of health and nutrition, the distribution of income and
indeed the likely changes in fertility. Finally a projection must take into account
the possible future patterns of migration, legal and illegal.
Remember that projections are not forecasts. They are merely calculations
based upon certain assumptions. Accurate population forecast are essential to
meet the government decisions making needs but are impossible. .However,
these projection are used as forecasts.
23
Q,1 What are the chief characteristics of a census? Explain the De facto
and the De jure methods of census.
Q. 2 Why registration o f vital events is important for a country? Which
types of information this registration provides? ,
’ Q.3 Discuss the role of sample surveys in demographic research.
2.8 Required Readings

The national census reports contain discussion on methodological issue as
well as material on wide ranging demographic topics. Try to study latest census
reports,
Newell; Colin, Methods and Models in Demography, Belhaven Press,

London (1989) Page 13-21.

3- THEORIES OF POPULATION
3.1 Introduction .
The preliminary stage of any scientific inquiry is the collection and
■classification-of data. Through classification different phenomena are separately
examined and their peculiarities observed. Further investigation often reveals
unsuspected similarities and significant relations between phenomena.. Scientists
try to pass beyond the classification level; they formulate explanatory hypotheses
and test their validity. In this way they develop certain theories. In this unit you
will study Malthus theory of population, Neo-Malthusian perspectives and Marx
perspectives about population.
3.2 Objectives
After studying this unit you will be able to
1. Define different perspectives on population
2. Differentiate the ideas of maj or theorists regarding theories of population
3.3 Major Topics
1. Malthusian Theory of Population
2. Neo-Malthusians
3. The Marxist Perspective ,‘ 3
3.4 History o f Population Theories.
Societies have been concerned with population problems since ancient times.
The germs of certain ideas that have figured prominently in recent theoretical
work on population can be found in ancient writings. For instance, Confucius's
writings suggest that the author had some concept of optimum population in so
far as the population engaged in agriculture was concerned (UN, 1973: 33).
Plato and Aristotle discussed the optimum population for the city-state. They
also discussed the population size from the point of view of defence. While
these ideas were formulated ;with a view to 'public policy, and only in
• exceptional cases went beyond mere speculation or incidental observations, the.
ideas expressed foreshadowed many of the issues, which would make their
reappearance in modem population theory. However, no consistent population
theory emerged until the modem period.
Theory of population is basically an attempt to make clear the major factor
or factors determining population growth. Ideally considered, a theory of
population should be able to explain not only historically observed changes in
fertility and mortality patterns as well as class differences in these processes,
should provide the basis for predicting with some accuracy in the future pattern
of a country or group of countries, given the stage of economic development and
type of social organization. In this unit you will study Malthus theory of
population, Neo-Malthusian perspectives and Marxist perspectives about
population. -
3.5 Malthusian Theory
Modem population theory is generally considered to have its beginnings in
the late eighteenth century writings of Thomas Robert Malthus who was a well-
known, outstanding, political economist of that century. Though not the first
writer to mention that the growth of population is ultimately limited by the food
supply, he was the first to develop a consistent and comprehensive population
theory in relation to economic conditions. His ideas on population were mainly
developed in his Essay On The Principle o f Population} first published in 1798,
in which he clarified the perception of population problems for a common reader
in a clear and very powerful interpretation.
On the basis of his own observations Malthus calculated that whereas the
.capacity of human reproduction was unlimited, space on earth as well as the
resources for the human subsistence were limited. His theory gives central
27
attention to the human needs for resources and for human procreation, as his
words in the following quotations assert:
"I think I may fairly make two postulates. First, that food is necessary to the
existence of man. Secondly that the passion between the sexes is necessary, and
will remain nearly in its present state”(Malthus, 1798: 11).
“Assuming then, my postulate as granted, I say, that the power of population
is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for
man. Population when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence
increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will
show the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second” (ibid.: 13-
14). ■ . "
He further argues that population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself
every twenty five years, thus increasing in a geometrical ratio, while under the
most favourable conditions, agricultural production increases each twenty five
years by an equal quantity, thus increasing only in an arithmetical ratio. He
concluded that, “taking the population of the: world at any number, a thousand
million, for instance, the human species would increase in the ratio of 1, 2, 4, 8,
16, 32, 64, 128, 256 and the subsistence as 1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9..... ’’(ibid.: 25).
He expressed the consequences of the difference between these two powers
as: "By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the
effect of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. This implies a strong and
constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This
difficulty must fall some where; and must necessarily be severely felt by a large
portion of mankind” (ibid.: 14).
28
He classified these checks under two headings: the preventive and the
positive checks. By positive checks he meant famine,, war, plague and
epidemics, which he termed the miseries of human civilisation. Preventive
checks include moral restraint, which consist mainly of the deferring of marriage
and sexual abstinence prior to marriage. He recommended preventive checks
only for the poor and labouring classes because, according to him, they produce
more children than the rest of the classes and, because of their poverty, they are
unable to adequately support children. Malthus, however, opposed contraceptive
use and classed it with vice. He believed that its use permits free sexual
gratification and does not generate the same drive to work as would a chaste
postponement of marriage.
The particular view taken by Malthus, however, was not borne out by
subsequent developments in various parts of the world, mainly because Malthus
failed to foresee the prodigious expansion in resources (e.g. food production), in
the efficiency of resources use,(e.g. recycling), arid in the substitution of new
resources for others, which the continuous unfolding of science arid technology
has rendered possible. Improved plant breeding, arid increased use of
fertilisation, combined with irrigation arid chemical control of weeds and insects
have in fact substantially raised crop yields.
Notwithstanding his approach to contraception, its use has in fact provided a
key means of checking population growth. By the 1930s the decline in fertility
had caused gross reproduction rates to fall below Malthus’s assumed levels in
developed countries such as Austria, England and Wales, Luxembourg, Norway,
Sweden and Switzerland, France and Germany (United Nations, Pop. Bulletin
1965). But in developing countries like Pakistan, where neither of Malthus’s
checks prevailed and the birth control movement has not achieved its goal, the
time for doubling the population is about the same^s Malthus suggested almost
29
two centuries ago. This Shows the relevance o f Malthus’s theory to population
studies even today. However, these differences between countries also suggest
the importance o f the level o f economic development u? ine understanding o f
population growth.
As a result o f rapid economic development due to agricultural, industrial and
sanitary revolutions, which some Western countries experienced earlier than
others, some changes, such as declining levels o f population growth and
increased production due to scientific progress, have taken place. These changes
also had an obvious effect on world fertility and mortality levels, which showed
that the population principle as formulated by Malthus in his first Essay, did not
apply to industrializing societies. The fertility and mortality level o f most
societies has been determined by existing levels o f economic development rather
than Malthus’s preventive and positive checks i.e. through moral restraint or
through war, famine or epidemic.
3.6 Neo-Malthusians
An other approach, which broadly accepts Malthus’s analysis" but argues for
the adoption- o f birth control within marriage is known as neo-Malthusians,
Today, many o f those involved in the practical urgencies o f population policy
advocate, birth control, whenever necessary with little concern for theoretical
reference. They also advocate the use o f improved crop fertilization to improve
nutrition in the Third world. Neo-Malthusians have a Marxist flavour in. their
condemnation o f developed nations, which despite their low birth rates consume
a disproportionately large share o f world resources. While rather pessimistic
about the future, these theorists stress that birth control and sensible use o f
resources are essential responses to rising world population.
3.7 Marx ,
Karl Marx strongly criticized Malthus’s views on population. Marx saw the
nature of economic relations in Europe industrial societies as the central
problem. He did not accept the Malthusian view that rising world population
was the cause of. social ills rather he thought that it was the capitalism, which
was the major cause. He believed that under capitalists system, wealth and
capital are concentrated in the hands of few individuals. The demand for labour
fails to keep up with the increase in the number of workers, which create a vast
unemployment. Beside this the.capitalist want to maximize their profit and pay-
less than the value o f labour power, and the surplus value is kept by the
capitalist. To increase the surplus. value they also introduce labour saving s
machines and rationalization. With accumulation of capital, unemployment
spreads, wages decline and poverty increases. The cumulative effect of the
poverty and unemployment creates the surplus population.
Marx held that every special historic mode of production has its own special
laws of population, historically valid within its limits alone. So the law of
population under industrial capitalism is the law of a relative surplus population.'
This law comes into operation at a certain stage in the accumulation of capital,,
i.e. the law does not hold for all stages of capital accumulation. Relative
population can only occur after a qualitative change has taken place in the
organip composition of capital.
Marx claimed that man’s tendency to press on the means of subsistence was
due solely to the evils of capitalism, which would disappear if his system -
communism - to be adopted. When communism is in operation, there can be no
poverty and hardship whatever be the rate of population increase.
31
Q.l Is demographic perspective a way of relating basic population
information to theories? Discuss.
Q. 2 Explain the main features of Malthusian theory of population. What
does Neo-Malthusian say? Analyse. * •' .
Q.3 Critically evaluate the Marxist views about surplus population.
Weeks, R. John Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues,
Wadsworth Publishing Company, California (1989) Page 61-70.
32
UNIT - 4
SOCIAL THEORIES OF POPULATION

GROWTH
Writer: Dr. Rukhsana Masoo<jf

33
-a,- *
4- SOCIAL THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH
4.1 Introduction
The review of the world population history has emphasizes that throughout
the history of civilization there has been a tendency towards regulation of
demographic process by social or group control. Population analysts tried to find
out the answer of two major questions: what are the causes of population growth
and what are the consequences of population growth. They also tried to establish
the relation between numbers of people and their social and economic pressure
and resources. It has been suggested that there are number of distinct stages in
demographic growth through which population passes, these stages commonly
known as demographic transition Jheory. In this unit you will study the theory of
demographic transition. You will also study Davis’s theory of demographic
change and response. These theories take into consideration the entire economic
and social aspects related to population. The theorist tries to lay down desirable
norms, values and believes regarding to population in detail. You will also study
the relative income hypothesis.
4.2 Objectives
After study this unit you will be able to . -
1. Discuss the importance of economic and social development in the
process of population change.
2. Elaborate the theory of demographic change and response
3. Discuss the relative income perspective of birth rate.
34
-3 - # ; -
4.3 Major Topics
1. Theory of Demographic Transition
%
2. Theory of Demographic Change and Response

3. Theory of Relative Income
4.4 Demographic Transition Theory

Attempts have been made to formulate a generalised account of the process
of mortality and fertility decline in Western countries. This is commonly called
the theory of demographic transition. The theory of demographic transition is
derived from actual historical experiences, constructed into a general model. On
studying the demographic evolution of the countries in the West that these
societies had experienced in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a number
of writers inferred that population historically passes through different, ,more or
less, well-defined stages. These are usually specified as follows: the first stage is
characterised by high fertility and high mortality and, consequently, low
population growth rate. The second stage exhibits continuing high fertility but
declining mortality and consequent by rapid natural increase in population. And
the third stage has both fertility and mortality stabilizing at a low level, which
produces more or less static populations.
One approach of the theory has been to categorize societies according to the
stage in demographic transition they have reached. Writings in the early part of
this century seem to be an attempt to generalize the demographic experience of
Europe into a theoretical framework, which could apply to other areas as well,
Thompson grouped the nations of the world into three types, according, to the
level of their birth and death rates. According to Thompson
35
“There are three type of countries in the world today as regards their
population.”
Group A: These countries have a very rapid declining birth rate and death
rate with the former declining more rapidly than the latter, so that the rate of
natural increase is also declining. ■,
Group B: Evidence that decline in both birth-rates and death-rates is
underway in certain cases, but the death rate is declining as rapidly or even more
rapidly than the birth-rate with the result that the rate of natural increase will
probably for some time, remain as great as now, or even become larger in the
near future. - .
Group C: Both birth rates and death rates are less controlled than in either A
or B. But in some of these countries e.g. Japan, there is some indication that
death rates are coming under control faster than birth rates” (1929: 961-62).
. In his classification countries like Britain now fall into group A (a group that
would now also include Japan) and countries like Pakistan would fall into group
One of the best-known formulations of demographic transition theory was
put forward by Frank Notestein in 1945. While Thompson just examined the
level of fertility and mortality in his classification, Notestein based his
observation on the changes that had taken place in the fertility and mortality
^ - *
rates of West European countries and compared them with the agricultural,
industrial and sanitary revolutions (and thereby economic development) which
these countries had experienced in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.
Notestein stated that the growth of Europe in the modern era initially involved
declining mortality produced by .the process of modernization as a whole,
including rising levels of living standards and new control over diseases.
Fertility responded more slowly to . modernization, but ultimately began to
decline through the widespread use of contraception under the impact of factors
such as growing individualism and rising aspirations in urban, industrial
societies. He noted that the more rapid response of mortality than of fertility to
the forces of modernization is probably inevitable. This was because as people
begin to experience the effects of modernization, there is an improvement in
nutritional and health standards, which reduce mortality, while fertility remains
high until the mature stages of industrialization also create pressures to reduce
; fertility. He distinguished three types of stages of demographic evolution; stages
which parallel Thompson’s three groups of countries:
(a) Population with incipient decline or transition completed (United States,
Europe, Australia), characterized by a fertility rate declining to or’even below
the replacement level;
(b) A transitional type of population (Soviet Union, Japan, some countries in
Latin America) with the rate of growth which is still* relatively rapid, but where
• ■
the decline in the birth rate is well established; and (

■ - .\ ■ .• .■ ■
37 :v .
(c) Populations with high growth potentials or where transitional growth has not
yet begun (most of the countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America), and where
fertility remains high with no tendency to decline and where the high but
declining death rate is the main growth factor. •
Notestein set this pattern in the context of economic changes^ which
occurred in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in Europe. And argued that
•the study pf the early phases of economic development and demographic .
transition in certain non-European countries suggested that the principles drawn
from the European demographic transition would be widely applicable
throughout the world.
While the idea of a demographic transition has been widely adopted and is
frequently used as a generalized description of the evolutionary process, a
number of writers have emphasized its limitation as a theory. The most obvious
of these is that the so-called ‘transition theory’ was developed from a European \
point of view i.e., (a) it simply discusses what happened in European societies, it
does not really explain (except for some cases from loose references to
economic development), (b) It does not empirically fit developing countries. The
experience of developing countries seems to indicate that the immediate effect
of modernization on fertility may be to produce ah increase rather than the
steady, downward trend suggested by the theory as originally formulated (Jones
and Grupp, 1987: 13). The world fertility surveys, for example, show that
fertility decline was far from a universal trend. In Africa, South of Sahara,
fertility rate's appear to be still rising in many countries because of improved
maternal health and nutrition and reduction in sterility and breast-feeding
(Findlay and Findlay, 1987).
(c) Tiie transition theory is deterministic, with one stage apparently giving
/ _ s f* * ■
rise to the next in a unilinear fashion without adequate explanation of the
38 '
mechanism responsible for powering the transformation. It is argued that
transition theory is not a theory but a description of historical events that have
occurred in the developed countries with some regularity.
The population of Pakistan has quite a few peculiarities. It has a broad base,
the age at marriage is low, family size continues to be large and the traditional
concept of the family remain unchanged. With the population of 130.5 million in
1998, Pakistan is the seventh most populous country of the world. Overtime, i t -
has been observed that the death rates are consistently falling while the fertility
rates remain high. But the recent evidence suggests that important demographic
changes are underway. In 1990s all demographic analyses point to a decline in
fertility also. That shows the onset of fertility transition in Pakistan. Study
relevant material from the reader for the details of fertility transition.
4.5 Theory o f Demographic Change and Response - ■ ' .
Kingsley Davis is a sociologist who has spent much of his career
emphasizing both micro and macro level aspects of social structure. In the paper
“The Theory of Change and Response in Modem Demographic History”(1963),
Davis provides a sophisticated sociological statement for explaining the data
assembled by demographers. He confronts-the analysis of macro data and offers
a theoretical explanation of how social and behavioural activities could have
produced the structural effects. Davis’s concern is with the causes of population
growth. He believes that in order to do anything about the consequences you
have to know the causes. ! .■
Davis notes that it is too simplistic to say that fertility eventually falls in
response to a drop in mortality. He states that the demographers avoid, the
complexity of the claim when they ignore the kinds of information presupposed
about how a decline would be noted by different members of a group and how
respondents’ social distribution of knowledge would be a central ingredient in
" .......’ ........ ; .......... ■' * 39 . '

making claims about the perception of a decline. He tries to deal with the central
issue of how and under what conditions can mortality decline lead to a fertility
decline.
Davis’s remarks lead us to reason that individual family members
experienced the consequences of a decline in mortality by way of having to live
with several siblings with whom they obliged to share whatever they could
obtain from their parents. Several additional implications suggest that the.
individual family member might have become preoccupied with having to spend
more time with his parents because of an economic obligation to help support
the family. As an adult, as he has been raised among many sibling, he would
have fewer resources with which to start his own family and to provide for
educating his own children. '
In the case of rural population’s demographic response to declining
mortality, Davis tries to pinpoint the critical decision affecting Changes in
fertility behaviour. Declining mortality leads to land scarcity and changes in
traditional patterns of land distribution for couples wanting to get married. Land
scarcity problems lead to postponement of marriage and to the migration of rural
youth to find hon-agricultural jobs created by the changing economy.
Davis implies that members decided to postpone marriage and to leave the
farm setting because they saw that the declining mortality was contributing to a
scarcity of land. The “responses” of postponing marriage and migration to non-
agricultural occupation possibilities are linked to changes in the larger economy,'
• whereby industrialization requires emigration from agricultural areas. The rural
youth were rewarded for such migration. These activities can be viewed as
having provided an “alerted” or self-conscious population with the opportunities
to participate in the economic revolution. For these youth there was no
resistance to modernization in term of sticking on to a traditional value system.
Thus the rural population of industrialized countries “responded” to declining
mortality by out migration and a postponement of marriage, not simply to
reduce fertility or lessen the population problem, “but as a response *to the
complexity and insecurity of the new requirements for respectable adult status
under changing circumstances”
Davis suggests that the most powerful motive for family limitation is not
fear of poverty or avoidance of pain as Malthus argued, rather it is the prospect
of rising prosperity that will most often motivate people to find the means to
limit the number of children they have.
•4.6 Theory o f Relative Income
The theory of relative income is based on the idea that the birth rate does not
\ •■
necessarily respond to absolute level of income well-being but rather to levels

that are relative to those which one is accustomed (Easterlin-1968; 1978).
Easterlin assume that the standard of living you experience in late childhood is
the base from which you evaluate your chances as an adult. People try to
maintain their life style; which they enjoy at their late childhood. So if they have
less income they try to avoid marriage and children. But if they have improve,
their income relative to late childhood, then they will be more likely to marry
early and have several children. This theory does not approved in many low-
income countries. It is evident that poor people employ their children in
remunerative productive work at an early age that acts as an incentive to
birthrate.
Q.l . The hypothesis of demographic transition presumes that death rates
fall faster than birth rates. How do you interpret this?
*' '
Q. 2 Demographic transition theory suggests that due to the fall in death
rates, birth rates also start falling after some time. But Davis did not
agree with this simple assumption. What did he suggest? Explain.
Q.3 Discuss the relative income hypotheses in your own words.

Weeks, R. John Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues,
Wadsworth Publishing Company, California (1989) Page 71-82.
Sathar, A. Zeba and John B. Casterline, “The Onset of Fertility Transition in
Pakistan”, Population and Development Review Vol 24, No. 4 . Page 773- 796.
42
UNIT- 5
FUNDAMENTAL METHODS FOR

43
5- FUNDAMENTAL METHODS FOR ANALYSIS
, OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
5.1 Introduction ?
In previous units you have studied nature and importance of population data
and theories. Population information is best communicated in terms of numbers
and rates. It is not enough to kno w that population is increasing. We also need to
know what is the rate of its increase. How many years it needs to be doubled?
How does it affect different segments of the society? Such information is
meaningful when it provides an indication of the magnitude and distribution of
the phenomenon, as well as the trend. To be useful, data must be expressed
clearly as well as accurately. Demography being the scientific study of
population, demographers seeks to know the levels and trends in population size
and its components. They use census, birth and death record and survey. They
shape these data into manageable forms such as simple counts,, rates and ratios.
In this unit you will study how to count population figures and how to calculate
certain rates and ratio. .
5.2 Objectives
After studying this unit you should be able to: '
1. Define different measures of demographic data
* 2. Use different tools o f calculation in demography A
* .
5.3 Major Topics
1. Methods of Population Counts
2. Rate, Ratio and Proportion
5.4 Count
The absolute number of a population or any demographic event occurring in
a specified area in a specified time period is called count. For example the
global aging population age 65 years and Over is-growing by about 800,000
people per month. According to population census of 1998. the total population
of Pakistan was 130,579,671. Wheri figures show absolute number, it is called
‘count’. . '
5.5 Rate
The frequency of demographic events in a population during a specific time
period-(usually a year) divided by the population at risk of the event occurring
during that time period is called rate. For example crude birth rate (GBR) is a
total number of children bom in a specific time period in a given population; To
express these measures in more understandable fashion most rates are expressed
through per 1000 population. For example, 0.0352 live births per person
occurred in Pakistan in 1996. Multiplying this rate by a constant (1000) gives
the same statistic in terms of 1000 population. This is the clearer way of
expressing the same thing that there were 35.2 births per 1000 population.
If we want to calculate CBR, it will be like this:
Number of Births
GBR x 100
Total Population
Or
38868 '
CBR - x 100 = 24.0
1620086
y ■■
5.5.1 Ratio
The relation of one-population subgroup to another subgroup is called
•A ’
Ratio. This is simply calculated as one subgroup divided by another subgroup.

An example is the sex ratio - the number of male per 100 female. For example
sex ratio of Pakistan in 1998 was 108. We have the number of women and men
in thousands rather than actual number so we can calculate it in the same way.
See the example below.
45
Males
Sex Ratio = ——---- x 100
Females
Or 67840
Sex Ratio - --------- x 100 = 108
62739
5.5.2 Proportion
A proportion is a special type of ratio in which the numerator is included
in the denominator. In other words this a relation of a subgroup to the entire;
population. For example if we want to calculate the proportion of urban
population, total urban population divided by the total urban and rural
population w ill' give. us'-the proportion of urban population in that area.
Remember that a proportion can only range from 0.0 to 1.0. It is, though, very
common to express proportions as percentages simply by multiplying by 100, in
which case the range-of possible values is from 0 per cent to 100 per cent.
x
Proportion = ——
■ s x+y
If we want to see the proportion of urban population in Pakistan in 1998;
it will be. like this.
Urban population = 42458
Rural population = 88121
x 42458
• Proportion - :------ or ------^ ■= .325
x+y 42458 + 8812;
In other words it means in Pakistan 32.5 % population lives in urban areas.
A
Q. l Discuss the importance of different measures of demography..
Q.2 What is the sex ratio in Pakistan? How can we calculate it?
5.7 Required *Rcading

Sinha, V.C. and E. Zacharia Elements o f Demography Allied Publishers
Private Limited, New Delhi (1984) Page 34-38. • , .
UNIT- 6
AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION

\
Writer: Dr..Rukhsana Masood

48
6- AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION
6.1 Introduction '

In this unit you will study how to measure age and sex ratio and their
importance in the field o f demography. The number o f people at each age .and
sex is an important factor in how a society is organized and how it operates. Age
statistics are o f fundamental importance in demographic as well as in all social
science analysis. As they reflect changes in behaviour at various stages o f life
cycle. Similarly sex composition o f a population is the basic demographic
variable. It directly affects the incidence o f birth, deaths and marriages,
migration and occupation. When we present age arid sex distribution in graphic
manner it is called population pyramid. In this unit you will study about the age
and sex composition arid population pyramids in detail and their importance in
population studies. *
6.2 Objectives
1. Measure age and sex ratios. v
’ - ' • ' ■■ ■. j
2. Explain population pyramids and their importance in the field o f

demography:
6.3 Major Topics
1. Measurement o f Age and Sex Structure
2. Population Pyramids
3. Impactdf Pbptflatiori Processes on The Age and Sex Structure . ■
6.4 Age and Sex Composition

Almost every census o f the world collects data on age and sex composition
because it constitutes one o f the important compofients o f demographic analysis.
It has great impact on population growth at any given time because the present
age-sex composition of the population is greatly influenced ,by the growth trends
of the past and may be said to^be in part a residue, of past demographic
processes.
Many -social* and economic issues are closely related to the current sex and
age profile and to the future changes therein. The age comppsition of the
population provides the basis for estimating the requirements for various
essential goods and services. The potential school age population, female in the
. reproductive age, working age population and dependant population are
influenced by it. .To meet the future demand in different sectors, every country
requires projections’ for schools, employment, food and housing demand, etc.
■s
Demographers usually categories age in three broad categories; i.e. dependent
children, the active population, and dependent aged.
The reason for studying the sex ratio is its relevance to family formation.
The number of marriages possible in monogamous societies and thus the
number of legitimate births depends in part whether there ,are' as many men as
women. .
A population’s age structure has a great deal to do how that population lives.
As proportions of the .population in the labour force "or in school, as well as
different consumer preference, medical need and even crime patterns are very-
much related with the age structure of a population. In world some populations
are relatively young, that is, they have large proportion of population in the
younger age groups. Pakistan is the example of this type of population because
due to high fertility, we have more young people. O ther populations are
relatively old, such as many countries of Europe or USA, where death rate is
very low and age expectancy is very high. Beside this their fertility rate is also
very low. Due to this reason they have more old age people. . ■. •
50
The age dependency ratio is the ratio of persons in the dependent ages,
(generally under age 15 and over age 65) to those in the economically
productive ages i.e. 15-64. Countries with very high birth rates usually have the
highest age- dependency ratio: because of the large proportion of children in the
population. In 2001 Pakistan had 42 % of its population under age 15 and 4 %
over age 65. -
6.5 Population Pyramids
Population pyramids reflect the sex and age distribution in graphical manner,
A pyramid essentially comprises of two ordinary histograms placed on their
sides and back to back. The rules for drawing pyramids are generally the same
as those for producing histograms you have studied in social statistics course.
But there are some special features, that you should remember.
First pyramids are always drawn showing the male population on the left
hand side and the female population on the right hand side. The young are
always, at the bottom and-the old at the top. it is conventional to use either
single-year or five -year age group though other groupings are possible.
Second the last age group, which is normally open ended, is omitted entirely
from the pyramid because it is impossible to draw truthfully. Third, the bottom
scale can be graduated as either absolute number or percentages. The shape of
the pyramid is not affected at all by this, but it is essential that the percentages
are calculated using the total population of both sexes combined as a base. If the
percentages are calculated separately for male and females then the pyramid will
present a .false picture. It will not reflect the different numbers of males and
females in the population because the areas on either side of the pyramid will be
exactly equal. ,«*■
\51
6.6 Impact of Population Processes on The Age and Sex Structures
All the population processes i.e. fertility,, mortality and migration make their
own impact on the sex and age structures. Changes in fertility produce the
biggest change in a society’s age structure. A decline in fertility and mortality
ages the population, just as a rise makes it more youthful. A rise in fertility also
tends to produce a greater number of males than females, since there are more
boys bom than girls universally.
Migration can have a sizable impact, since migrants tend to predominate at
particular age group and in. addition migration is frequently selective for one sex
or the other. Mortality has. the smallest short ran impact on the age and sex
structures but when child mortality declines suddenly the impact is to make the
population more youthful. At the same time, a decline in mortality influences the
sex structure at the older ages by producing increasingly greater numbers of old
age people as well as more females than males as males have comparatively less
age expectancy than females.
Q,1 Discuss the importance of age structure for the development of any
country.
Q.2 What are the three main age categories usually considered in
demographic data? What is the importance of these categories?
Q.3 Discuss the impact of population process on age structure of any
society. • ■
Weeks, R. John (1989) Population: An Introduction;to Concepts and Issues
Wadsworth Publishing Company, California. Page.220-230.
Petersen, William (1975) Population (3rd edition) Mcamillan Publishing Co.,
Inc. New York Page.61-82.
■' UNIT- 7
POPULATION OF PAKISTAN
«

53
7- POPULATION OF PAKISTAN
7.1 Introduction
This chapter will consider certain aspects o f Pakistani population. It will
begin by examining the historical trends o f population in Pakistan. The special
terminology used in population research will be discussed in detail and a brief
overview of world population history will be offered. Particular attention will be
given to the cuirent problem of overpopulation in Pakistan. In this unit
comparatively more detail is given, keeping in view providing more current
information to the student on population issues.
7.2 Objectives '■'■■■' *
1. Explain the historical trend of population growth of Pakistan.
2. Discuss the distribution of population and its importance.
3. Analyse the characteristics of Pakistani population.

4. Compare the situation of Pakistan’s population with rest o f the world.
7.3 Major Topics

1. Size and Growth of Pakistan’s Population
- 2. Historical Trends of Population Growth
3. Rural Urban Distribution and Density o f Population
4. Age and Sex Composition
5. The Economic and Social context of Population
7.4 Size and Growth of Pakistan’s Population
Size, and Growth
Pakistan is a populous nation with a high continuing natural birth rate, which,
threatening its political and economic stability. According to 1998 census the •
total population size of Pakistan was 130.579 million with this population
Pakistan stands seventh amongst the most populous countries of the world. It
ranked 10th in the year 1991, below to Japan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. Among
the Asian countries it is at fourth position. Pakistan has second highest average
annual growth rate of 2.61 percent among these countries. With this annual
growth rate, the population of the' country would be doubled in the next 27
years. This situation is very alarming for the country! .
Table 7.1 shows the situation of population among ten most populous
countries of the world. ’ ,•>
: Table 7.1. The Most Populated Countries of the World: Area, Population
size. Rate of natural increase, and Density.
Country Population Rate of Area in Density
Mid, 2001 Natural square per sql
(In Million) Increase Miles , Mile
China 1273.3 / 0.9 3,696,100 344 .
India 1033.0 1.7 1,269,340 814
• USA . 284.5 0.6 3,717,796 .77
Indonesia 206.1 1.7 735,355. 280
Brazil 171.8 1.5 3,300.154 52
Russia • 144.4 -0.7 - 6!592,819 22 ■
Pakistan 145.0 2.8 303,375 - 472
Bangladesh 133.5 2.0 55,598 2401
' Japan 127.1 0.2 : 145,869 872
Nigeria 126.6 2.8 .*356,668 355 ■
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2001 World Population Data Sheet.
Population Reference Bureau (USA) data gives even more alarming'
situation than given by Pakistani statistics. According to the World Population
Data Sheet 2001 Pakistan stands at sixth position in the world with the highest /
natural growth rate i.e. 2.8. The growth rate is even higher than the overall
average rate o f growth o f the world population. The world population is growing
at the rate o f 1.3 per cent per annum, whereas in South Central Asian countries,
including Pakistan, the growth rate is 1.8 per cent. The population growth o f
Pakistan is still the highest among these most populated countries o f the world
(see Table 7.1). It is higher than the overall average o f the group o f less
developed countries, which is according to PRB 2001’s projection, 1.6 per cent
per annum, the Asian figure being 1.4 per cent per annum and for more
developed countries 0.1 per cent per annum. ^
• •>
Table 7.2 Population size, and Rate o f Natural Increase in , v
World and Major Regions in 2001
Regions Population in Natural growth
Million Rate
World 6137 1.3
Asia 3720 1.4
More Developed 1193 0.1
Countries
Less • Developed 4944 1.6
Countries
The rapid rate at which the population o f Pakistan has been growing is partly
because population densities are already high and partly because o f the result o f
a marked decline in the death rate coupled with a constantly high birth rate. The
change in mortality .levels has, therefore, played a significant role in determining
the present size o f population.
7.5 Historic Trend of Population Growth

The population o f Pakistan grew from 16.6 million in 1901 to 32.5 million at
the time o f independence in 1947 (only consider the area now called Pakistan).
According to 1998 census it increased up to 130-6 million. Population sizes
since 1901 and the compound growth rate are given in Table 7.3. ^ -
Table 7.3. Population o f Pakistan and Growth Rate since 1901.
Census Population in Compound growth
millionf rate in percentage
1901 16.576a .
1911 19.382 1.6
1921 21.109 0.9
1931 23.542 1.1
1941 28.282 1.9
1951 33.817c 1.8
1961 42.978 d 2 .4 e
1972 65.321 3 .7 e
1981 84.254 3.1
1991 8 113.78 3.1
1998 130.579 2.8
2001 n 145.4 2.8 jr
Source: Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey
a. Excluding population o f the Frontier region.
b. Based on population excluding 1.622 thousand persons o f the Frontier
region in 1911..
c. Including 13 thousand persons (estimated) ofGawadar not part o f Pakistan
in 1951 and 24 thousand persons -(estimated) in the Frontier Region who
were not included in 1951 census.
d. The planning commission has estimated that there was under-enumeration
in the 1961 census to the total o f 7.5%.
e. The intercensal population growth rate between 1951-61 and 1961-72 is
3.21% and 3.02% respectively, after adjustment o f 7:5% under-enumeration
in the 1961 census. '
f. The Pakistan censuses.were held around the month o f February up to 1951.
Since 1961 the date is March 1 except 1972, which was October 1,' 1972.
g. Estimated as at January 1991.
Y Estimated as at midyear 2001 by PRB.
58
Table 7.3 shows that the first doubling of the population took almost 50 years
(1901-1951) and the next about 21 to 26 years (1951-1972, and 1972-1998). By
comparison the population o f other regions are, predicted to double at the
fallowing intervals (see table 7.4).
Table 7.4 Population Doubling Time, 2001
Regions Doubling Time
World .50
More Developed 700
Less Developed 41 •
Pakistan 33 . '
The Population Reference Bureau Washington DC data suggests that the

population of Pakistan grew nine fold over one century (1901-2001.) compared
to the population of the world, which increased four times and the population of
developing countries, which increased six times.
7.6 Birth and Death Rates
Davis calculated the crude birth rate and crude death rate for the period of
before 1947 in 1951. According to his analysis, the CBRs varied between 45 and
49, and the CDRs varied between 48.6 and 31, based on the 1901-1941
censuses. Table 7.5 presents the CBRs and the CDRs for the period 1901-1993,
based on data for the period up to 1941 from Kingsley Davis and from various
surveys by different agencies for the years after 1941.
Though the crude birth rates and crude death rates are the least sophisticated
measure they are the one most commonly used to measure the overall trends in
the population. Table 7.5 shows that in Pakistan CBRs varied between 42 and 35
per thousand populations during 1965-1991. Bat this comparison must be
viewed with caution as noted in the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey
59
1984-85. “The CBRs obtained from .various sources are the by-product of
procedures, response errors, enumerators bias, problems of coverage and
©
sampling error which were of different nature and magnitude in the concerned
inquiries” (Population Welfare Division, 1986: 39). However, the CBRs did not
show any significant decrease except some short-term fluctuation. On the other
hand, the CDR declined from 15 per thousand in 1962-55 to 11 in 2001. Since
independence in 1947, Pakistan has experienced steady but modest declines in
rates of mortality at all ages. Yet early childhood mortality remains high. It is
estimated that at the time of independence in 1947, the Crude Death Rate (CDR)
was around 25-30 per thousand. The decline in mortality during the post Second
World War period had been very rapid. The decline in the death rate is the result
of the reduction m famines and in infectious diseases, such as cholera and
smallpox. The rapid rate of population growth is largely an outcome of the
decline in mortality, which began to occur as early as 1920, and has been more
rapid since the 1950s (Robinson, 1967; Davis, 1951).
Table 7.5. Crude Birth Rates and Crude Death Rates 'of Pakistan.
Period CBRs per 1000 CDRs per 1000
population population
1901a , 46.0 44.4.
1911 48.0 42.6
1921 49.0 x 48.6
1931 46.0 36.3
' 1941 45.0 31.2
1962-1965D 42.0 15.0 ;
.1979c 41.6 9.6
1984 43.3 11.8
1984-1986e 42.8 10.7
1990-19911 35.0 10.6
1996 3 5 .2 ,'" 8.8
2001 39 11
Crude Birth Rates and Crude Death Rate of Pakistan
,iiN
■ -r,
—- - — CBRs p er 1000
- p o p u la tio n
25 - \
• C D R s p e r 1000
V p o p u la tio n
15 -
n-
1979
1962-1965
1984
1996
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1990-1991
2001
1984-1986
; . :■
Sources:
a. Kingsley Davis, The Population o f India and Pakistan,, New Jersey, Princeton
University Press 1951, p. 36, 69, for the years 1901-41.
b. Farooqui M. N. I, and G. M. Farooq, Final Report o f the Population Growth
Estimation Experiment, 1962-65, Pakistan Institute of Development
.. Economics, Dacca, 1971.
c. Government of Pakistan, Population Growth Survey, 1979, Federal Bureau of
Statistics, July 1984.
d. Government of Pakistan, Population welfare plan 1980-83, Population.
Welfare Division, Islamabad.
e. Government of Pakistan, Pakistan Demographic Survey, 1984-86, Federal
Bureau of Statistics, Karachi, 1988.
f. Arnold, F. and M. Sultan, Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 1990-91,
National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad, and IRD/Macro
International Inc. Columbia, Maryland USA 1992.
.The CDR shows a slight increase during the last few years; in 1984-86 it was
estimated at 10.7 deaths per thousand persons and 11 in 1993. This rise may be
due to a number of factors. One of them is the change in the age structure of the
population. As a result of rapid population growth in the past the population of
Pakistan is composed primarily of young people. In Pakistan 46.3 per cent of the
population was under the age of 15 and 6.1 per cent of the population was in the
age group of 60 and over in 1988. In 1991 in India the percentage of the
population under the age of 15 was 36.0 per cent and in Bangladesh 43.6 per ' .
cent. Since fertility has been high in the past, the population today is composed *
of a relatively larger number of .young people and a relatively small number of
older people. As the child mortality rate is still'high and life expectancy at birth
is 60 for males and 61 for females, the increase in crude death rate may be due to
the age structure of the population. It may also be due to a deterioration in the
socio-economic conditions, status of hygiene and -availability of medical
services. ,
It must be pointed out that the CDR in Pakistan is still one of the highest s
among several developing countries. However, due to the very high proportions ®
of young people, the CDR in developing countries is v.ery low, even lower than
in some developed countries. For example, in 1992 the CDR in France was 9.1,
in the United States 8,5, and in the United Kingdom 11.2, while in 1991 it was
only 5.8 per thousand population in Sri Lanka, 6 in Turkey, 5 in Malaysia, 9 in
Iran, and 7.5 in Egypt.
Pakistan remains amongst the high fertility countries of the world. The Total
Fertility Rate (TFR, the summation of total number of children bom to a women
in each five-year age group during one year which indicates the total average
number of births a women is likely to experience over jier reproductive span if
current fertility rat:s continue) as reported by PRB World Population Data 2001
63 '
was 5.6 per women. As the birth rate is still high, consequently, the number of
young women entering their reproductive'years exceeds the; number of older
women moving out of their reproductive years. If the current rate of CBR and
CDR prevail, the population will be much larger in the future when these young
women will enter in child-bearing age and even if they control their total
fertility, the rate of population growth will be continue to be higher in the future.
7.7 Rural Urban Distribution and Density o f Population
Urban population of Pakistan is'increasing very rapidly due to different
spcio economic reasons. In 1951 rural population was 17.8 per cent of the total
population, which has increased up to 28.3 in 1981 and 32.5 per cent in 1998.
The urban population, which was 5.99 million in 1951 has increased to 42.46
. ■ V.
million in 1998 i.e. about 7 times increased in 47 years, whereas, rural
population has increased slightly over 3 times, which indicates high pressure on
urban areas. This shows that Pakistan is on the way of rapid urbanization. Table
No. 7.6 shows rural- urban share of population in Pakistan.' ^ ; ,
Table 7.6 Population Distribution, Growth Rates and Percentage Share by
... %
Urban and Rural Area
Population Growth Rate Percentage Share
Year All , Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban
Areas Area Area Areas Area Area Areas Area Area"
1951 33.75 27.76 5.99 1.1 0.3 5.4 100.0 82.2 17.8
1961 .42.88 33.23 9.65 2.5 1.8 4.9 ioo.o; 77.5 22.5
1972 65.31 48.72 16.59 3.7 3.3 4.8 100.0 74.6 25.4
1981 84.25 60.41 23.84 3.1 2.6 4.4 100.0 71.7 28.3
1998 130.58 88.12 ■42.46 2.6 2.2 3.5 100.0 ■67.5 32x5
The population density in the country has increased almost four times' i.e.
from 43 persons per square kilometre in i951 to 164 persons per sq. kilometre in
1998. Province-wise analysis indicates that Punjab is the most populated
province with 353 persons per sq. km. followed by NWFP with 236 persons,
Sindh 213 persons and Balochistan 19 persons per sq. km.
7.8 Age and Sex Composition ^
Table 7.7 shows sex composition of the Pakistani population for the census
years from 1901 to 1998. It is noted that the proportion of males and the sex
ratios increased up to the year 1921- They then remain more or less constant up
to the year 1931 and, thereafter, decline gradually. The increasing proportion of
males and sex ratio up to 1921 may be attributable to frequent occurrence of
epidemics and famines in which millions of people were killed. The proportion
of deaths was more amongst female than males, thus resulting in a high sex
ratio. The unusually high sex ratio in Pakistan may be attributable to a number
of factors such as
.A high number of male to female births i.e. a oiological phenomenon
common throughout the world higher female than, male deaths,"particularly,
ahead of infancy and adulthood etc. Also in census males are more completely
enumerated than females due to cultural reasons.
The declining sex ratio is reported after 1951, which indicates the female
mortality in the country has improved as compared to males and better coverage
is given in the censuses for female reporting.
\ . *
Table 7.7 Sex Ratio of Pakistan
Census year Sex ratio
1901 117.9
1911 121.5
1921 122.4
1931 122.3
1941 119.9
1951. 116.4
1961 115.3
1972 114.3
1981 110.6
1998 108.1
7.9 The Economic and Social context

The present socio-economic and cultural situation o f the country is deeply
rooted in its history. The infrastructure of the society is a legacy o f British rule:
institutions such as schools, universities, courts, bureaucracy and the army are
modelled on British lines. However, Islamic characteistics are dominant in
Everyday life. It is difficult to decide which category of social and cultural life to
present first: all are interlinked and difficult to isolate and each one needs to
• be
■
explained in order to understand the other. Here we will explain the more easily '
definable and measurable categories of social life, such es the economic context,
literacy and education and health facilities. *
Pakistan is one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita GNP
of $US 500 in 2000. This increased from $390 in 1991, which is a welcome
progress that has been achieved in spite of the rapid growth of the population.
« * • -
Pakistan is still predominantly an agricultural country witlfover 50 per cent of
.1 f ■'
• 66 5 ■
» - v- •,
the workforce employed in occupations related to agriculture. The 1998 census
reported that 67.5 per cent of the total population lived in rural areas. But the
availability of agricultural land per person in the country as of 1991 was less
than half an acre and the number of landless people is increasing. While the
pressure on agricultural land is increasing, the surplus labour force is migrating
to urban centres causing further congestion in the already over-burdened urban
centres, particularly the largest cities of Karachi, Lahore and Faisalabad. '
The majority of the population in the country is below the poverty line.
These people suffer from the pressure of large family size, illiteracy, health
problems, unemployment, or Under-employment, low income, inflation,
inadequate housing and high fertility and mortality. , -v
7.10 Literacy and Education
The educational base in Pakistan has been quite weak since the British era
and has remained consistently so for most of the past five decades. Education in
Pakistan is one of the neglected sectors in comparison to many other countries.
The country’s literacy and school enrolment rates are amongst the lowest in the
world. With a 48 per cent literacy ratio in 1998 Pakistan is still much behind than
its neighbouring countries such as India (52%) Malaysia (83%) and Sri Lanka
(90%). According to a UNICEF report in 2000, secondary school enrolment ratio
for female was only 17 per cent and for male 33 per cent only. According to this
data Pakistan ranks at 32nd position for female and 46* position for male in the
world. To increase the literacy rate in the country emphasis has to be placed on
both the improvement in quality and on the expansion of the education system at
the primary and secondary levels. In order to tackle these problems, the Seventh
Five Year Plan (1988-93) strategy was set up to broaden the resource base for
education by generating additional, resources for education and encouraging the
private sector’s participation in educational development. Though private sector
■ ■ . ■/ 67
is very actively involved in promoting educational facilities in Pakistan yet
unfortunately it is quite expensive and out of the reach of poor people.
7.11 Health Facilities and other Related Indicators
Only ,55 per cent of the population of Pakistan has access to health facilities,
which is the second lowest percentage after Bangladesh.(45 per. cent). {This:is.
because most doctors and health services are located in urban areas. The rural
areas, where the large majority of the population lives, have inadequate
facilities. Though efforts have been made to improve health and medical
services, the level of expenditure is rather low. Total expenditure on health as a
percentage of GNP in 1990-91 was 0.85. •
Life expectancy in Pakistan has slowly risen from under 40 years at
independence to the 60s in 2001. But it is still well below"the average of the less
developed nations as a whole, reflecting the continuing high levels of infant
mortality and low levels of social development.
In Pakistan The population per doctor is 2360 while the ratio of doctors in
Asia is 1020, in India 2340, and in China 650 (Britanhica Inc. 1995).
Considering other health related indicators, it is worth mentioning that the
availability of safe water in Pakistan is confined to only 56 per cent of the
population. This means that 44 per cent of the population does not have an
access to safe drinking water, which is the basic necessity of life. Adequate
sanitation was confined to only 20 per cent of the population in Pakistan during
1984-88. According to Pakistan Integrated Household Survey 1996-97 about 44
percent of the households had flush facility in their toilets, whereas, 14 percent
were without flush and 44 percent of the households had no latrine in their
housing units. Area analysis indicates that in urban areas 7 percent of the
households did not have toilet facilities while in rural areas 61 percent
households did not have this facility. From this health related indicators it is
68 .
implicit that among the factors associated with low development in health
services and facilities, the role of rapid population growth is quite prominent.
7.12 Self-Assessment Questions ,
Q. 1 Literacy rate of Pakistan is still very low. What are the main reasons for
this in your opinion?
Q. 2 Explain the historic trends of population growth in Pakistan. What do we
learn from the growth history of the population of Pakistan?
Q. 3 Why demographers collect age and sex data? What age data of Pakistan
suggest abo ut future trends of population?

Hakim, Abdul “ Population Change and Development Prospects:
Demographic Issues in Pakistan, Pakistan’s Population Issues in the 21st
Century: Conference Proceedings Oct. 24th - 26th, 2000, Karachi. Population
Association of Pakistan. Page: 363-393
69
w am m sssm sm sm t
UNIT - < f ‘
.* **•. *
DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE:

FERTILITY
Writer: Dr. Rjikhsana Masood

70
8- DYNAMICS © F POPULATION CHANGE: FERTILIT
8.1 Introduction
' \ . ■
In this unit you will study the basic demographic process of fertility. There
are, broadly, two ways of approaching thejstudy of fertility: period and cohort.
In this unit you will study the different ways of measuring fertility in a given
population.
8.2 Objectives /
1. Define fertility and fecundity.
2. Measure'different-fertility rates;
3. Discuss different approaches to fertility analysis
8.3 Major Topics
' . ' <
1. Fertility and Fecundity
2. Approaches to Fertility Analysis Cohort Analysis and Period Analysis
3. Broad Measures of Fertility: Child Women Ratio, Crude Birth Rate,
General Fertility Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate,
General Marital Fertility Rate, Marriage Duration Specific Fertility Rate
‘ \
8»4 Fertility and Fecundity
In demographic usage the term fertility relates to the number of live
births the average woman actually has. Most students of population use the
term fertility to indicate the actual reproductive performance of a women or
• 0
group of women.- A woman is considered fertile if she has ever bom a live
child. It differs from fecundity, which refers to -the physiological capability of
women to reproduce.
8.5 Period and Cohort Analysis
The essential quality of period fertility analysis is that it looks at fertility
across time, that is births occurring during a specified period of time normally
one year. Cohort analysis on the other hand, looks at fertility on the bases of
groups of women normally all those who have the same age group or married
during a particular year. Period analysis is generally simpler than cohort analysis
and is more frequently used. Measures of period fertility are called crude birth
rate, the child /women ratio, general fertility rate, while cohort analysis consists
of age specific fertility rates* total fertility rate, and marriage cohorts.
8.5 Broad Measures o f Fertility
8.5.1 Crude Birth Rate
The crude birth rate indicates the number of births per 1600 population in a
given year. It is called crude because it includes all ages and both sexes in, the
denominator. No attempt is made to relate the birth to the women at risk of
having those births. Crude birth rates, however, are useful for making overall
comparisons between different groups and societies. It is calculated as follows:
Number of birth in year

CBR = ■ ■ — ------ — ------ x 1000
Total population at mid. year
8.5.2 Child Women Ratio
The child-women ratio is the number of children under age 5 per 1000
women of childbearing age in a given year. This measure can be calculated from
national census or survey data. It is an extremely crude measure, but if fertility is
high the child/women ratio will be high, while if fertility is low, the ratio will be
low. It is calculates as under:
No. of children under age 5
C/w Ratio = ——-------------------- ------- x 1000
No. of women ages 15-49 years
8.5.3 General Fertility Rate
The general fertility rate is the number of live births per 100p women ages
15-49 in a given year. The childbearing ages for women are assumed for
statistical purpose to age 15-44 or 15- 49. In Pakistan it is mostly considered 15-
49. it is important to see the denominator because comparing a 15-44 GRE with
a 15-49 GRE will be misleading. The general fertility rate is somewhat more
refined measure than the birth rate because it relates birth to the age-sex group at
risk of giving birth. It is calculated as under:
No. of births in a year
GFR = ■ — —---- —-------— x 1000
8.5.4 Age peciflc Fertility Rate

Fertility rates can be calculated for specific age groups to see difference in
fertility behaviour at different ages or for comparison over time. For the
calculation of this measure it is necessary to have births classified by age of the
mother. Normally ASFR are calculated for seven groups, with an interval of five
years for each group i.e. 15-19, 20-24, 25-29 .....45-49, but it can be calculated
for single year also.
It is calculated as follows: >
No. of births to women
ages 30-34years
ASFR - ------------------- x 1000
Table No. 8.1 shows age specific fertility rates and totakfertility rates in
Pakistan during different years.
73
Table 8.1 Age Specific and Total Fertility Rate
Age Category 1987-1989 1989-1991 1992-1994 1993-1995
(average) (average) . (average) (average)
(1991 PIHS*) (PDS**) (PIHS) (96-97 PIHS)
15-19 Years 1 0 2 ,- 73 59 47
20-24 Years 279 266 238 • 226
25-29 Years 314 317 297 287
30-34 Years 283 270 • 233 244
35-39 Years 188 187 157 151 ' '
40-44 Years 72 94 96 88
45-49 Years 33 33 33 33 ,
Total fertility 6.35 6 .2 0 5.57 5.38
rate
..... . #
Source: Pakistan Integrated -Household Survey, 'Round 2: 1996-97
*Pakistan Integrated Household Survey
** Pakistan Demographic Survey , /
8.6.5 Total Fertility Rate
Fertility rate is comparatively a complex calculation. It is the number of
children that would be bom to an average women in a given population if she
were to live to the end of her child-bearing years, and bear children at the-same
rate as those of currently in the age group who have just passed the age of child-
bearing. ■
It is calculated by adding up the ASFRs . As ASFRs are usually relates to five
years. It is necessary to multiply the five-year rate by five. If single year ASFRs ‘
are being used, then there is no need to multiply by five. The TFR is almost
always expressed per women, whereas ASFRs are often expressed per 1000, if
that is the case, then it is necessary to divide by 1000. The formula is thus:
Sum of ASFRS x 5
TFR =
1000
Total fertility rates are given in table 8.1 with ASFRs . If we want to
calculate TFR for the year 1996 - 97, it would be like this:
47+226+287+244+151+88+33 x 5
TFR =
1000
= 5.
The TFR is a synthetic measure; no women is very likely to pass through

three decades conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of any single year. In
reality, age specific rates change and fluctuate from year to year. Year to year
fluctuation in the TFR may reflect changes in the timing of births rather than
changes in the average number of children women bear. However the TFR is
one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture of
how many children women are currently having.
8.6.6 Marriage Cohorts
One problem of trying to explain fertility using ASF cohort data is that the
member of any particular birth cohort will marry at different ages, some early
some late, so their fertility behaviour is likely to be different. For example if a
women marries at the age of 20, she might have 5 children when she reaches at
the age of 30. While another just marries at the age of 30 and the both have same
age group. One way of controlling for this diversity is to use marriage cohorts;
women marry in the same year rather having same age group. Their rate of
child-bearing and overall family size is likely to be less variable than that of
birth cohorts. This measure is Called Marriage Duration Specific Fertility Rate.
We can calculate it as:
75
Births in year x to women who married in year y
MDSFR = -------------------- :........... ....................'... ■
__ ____
. Total women who married in year y
8.7 Self-Assessment Questions J
Q. 1 What are the two different approaches to fertility measures? Explain
their significance in demographic studies. s
Q.2 Compare the age wise and year wise trend of fertility by using data
from table 8.1.
Weeks, R. John Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues

Wadsworth Publishing Company, California (1989) Page 87-116
76
UNIT-9
SOCIO -ECONOM IC VARIABLE

AFFECTING FERTILITY

9- SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLE AFFECTING FERTILITY
9.1 Introduction
It is well known that population policies and planning, particularly in
developing countries can benefit from an improved understanding of fertility
related behaviour. Such an understanding can be facilitated by examining how
certain socio-economic conditions affect such behaviour. Demographers and
social scientists are busy to find out certain factors that appear to influence
demographic change. In this unit you will study how different social aspects of
life affect women’s fertility.
9.2 Objectives
1. Relate social aspects with fertility behaviour.
2. Describe the importance of socio-economic factors for studying fertility
c
behavibur of any nation. .
3. Explain different approaches to study fertility behaviour.
9.3 M ajor Topics

1. Educational Achievements and Fertility Behaviour
2. Economic Status and Fertility Behaviour '
3. Cultural Factors in Fertility Behaviour
4. Explanation for Low Fertility
5. The Economic Approach
6. The Sociological Approach
9.4 Educational Achievements and Fertility Behaviour
Education is one of the most important sources of opportunity in any society.'
The ability to read and write gives individual access to a wide body of knowledge.
Formal education and its related activity exposes people to social life outside the
9 • x
family. School provides entry into other opportunities: Job with higher status and
better pay are nearly always associated with higher level of education.
In nearly all societies the amount of education a women achieves affects the
number of children she has and the way she cares for children. Fertility levels are
usually lowest among the most highly educated women within a county. A lot of
work has been done to see the effect of women education on fertility in different
X •
countries. All these researches indicate that the fertility rate declines as women’s
educational levels increase.’ To see the situation in Pakistan Please study Zeba’s
Paper from your Reader.
9.5 Economic Status and Fertility Behaviour
Research related to fertility behaviour in different developed and developing
countries shows that those people who hold more prestigious occupations have
fewer children than people with lower-prestige occupations. At national levels it
also indicates that fertility remained high in countries where economic growth and
social development have stood still. In 1980-85, oirth exceeded 6 children per
woman in Afghanistan; Bangladesh, Guatemala, Honduras and Nepal, and in
many African and Arab countries as well; 5.9 children per women in Nicaragua,
5.8 in Laos and Pakistan. These are the countries where low standards of living,
development, schooling and health cart account for the lag in reduction of
fertility. Similarly, within the countries themselves, the rates of fertility show a
marked difference between the poor and the rich, and particularly between urban
9.6 Cultural Factors in Fertility Behaviour
Every culture has different value of children that affects their fertility
behaviour accordingly. In developed countries children are mainly the source of
satisfaction of psychological needs while jn developing countries some economic
value also attaches to children. Wherever the economic value of children prevails,
son preference is also evident. Sometime the persistent desire for sons adds to the
overall magnitude of existing high fertility and creates further demand for earning
member of the family. This situation is more or less prevailing in all the
traditional, low income and agrarian societies. However there are so many other
factors also that influence fertility behaviour.in our society such as the influence
of religion, carrying on the family name, old age security and prestige, male
attitudes, low status of women in the family, employment opportunities for
women, women and law etc.
Q., 1 What are the major reasons for high fertility in Pakistan? Explain.
Q. 2 What are the two reasons for the decline in fertility? Are all countries in
South East Asia and South Central Asia experiencing fertility decline?

Weeks, R. John Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues
Wadsworth Publishing Company, California (1989) Page 118-134
Zeba A. Sathar “Women’s Schooling and Autonomy as factors ip. fertility
change in Pakistan: Some Empirical Evidence.” In Jeffery and Basu ed. Girls
schooling, Women’s Autonomy and Fertility Change in South Asia
Sage Publications New Delhi. Page 133-149

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CODE 4684 UNITS: 1 -9

DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY, SOCIAL WORK &

ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY

Unit 1-9 Code 4684

DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY, SOCIAL WORK &

Editor Mansoor Sattar

Chairman: Prof-Dr. Muhammad Iqbal Saif

Course Committee: 1. Prof. Dr. Muhammad Anwar,

2. Prof. Dr. Karam Ellahi,

3. Prof. Ishfaq Hussain Mirza,

4. Dr. Muhammad Latif Virk,

Review: Dr. Muhammad ’qbal Saif

Course Editor: Abdul Wadood

Course Coordinator: Syed Imran Haider

1 ORGANIZATION OF THE COURSE

Unit No. 1 THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY

Unit No. 2.,. SOURCES OF DATA

Unit No! 3 THEORIES OF POPULATION

Unit No. 4 SOCIAL THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH

Unit No. 6 AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION

Unit No. 7 POPULATION OF PAKISTAN

Unit No. 8 DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE:

Unit No. 9 SOCIO ECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECTING '

1.1 Structure o f the Course

1.2 How To Use Residing Material

1. A detail course description

1.3 Study Chart '

Step 3. Complete the first quick reading of your required study

ii. Structure of the program

Step 2. • Read carefully the course introduction 2-3 times to have a

Please see schedule of the semester.

Step 3. Read summary of the main themes of the concerned units

Assignments are those, written exercises which students are

After completion; you will send these assignments to your

The successful completion of assignments will make you

To qualify each assignment, you have to obtain a minimum

2. A knowledge of the various approaches and traditions within the study of ;

3. The information about population, which is technically accurate, culturally

THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF

1.3 Major Topics

1.4 Definition of Demography

1.5 Self-Assessment Questions

Q. 2 Demography is customarily treated as a branch of sociology. Why?

Writer: D r. Rukhsana Masood

After study this unit you will be able to

2.3 Major Topics ;

2. Vital Registration System

Population Projection '

2.8 Required Readings

Newell; Colin, Methods and Models in Demography, Belhaven Press,

Sinha, V.C. and E. Zacharia Elements o f Demography, Allied Publishers

SOCIAL THEORIES OF POPULATION

Writer: Dr. Rukhsana Masoo<jf

2. Theory of Demographic Change and Response

4.4 Demographic Transition Theory

the decline in the birth rate is well established; and (

rise to the next in a unilinear fashion without adequate explanation of the

" .......’ ........ ; .......... ■' * 39 . '

necessarily respond to absolute level of income well-being but rather to levels

4.8 Required Readings

FUNDAMENTAL METHODS FOR

Writer: Dr. Rukhsana Masood