Session 4.

Homework

S4.1
Assume the following probabilities for two events, 𝐴 and 𝐵:
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.45, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.80, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.95 Are the events, 𝐴 and 𝐵, independent in this situation?
Provide reasoning for your answer.

S4.2
A fair six-sided die is thrown twice.
a. Identify the sample space. What is the total number of elements in the sample space?
b. Explicitly identify the event E = {The sum of the face values of these two tosses is
5}, and calculate P(E).
c. Given that the event E happens, what is the probability that the face value of the first
toss is higher than that of the second toss?

S4.3
The eight single-digit numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are produced equally often using
Excel. Consider about the test "the next integer generated" and the events:
Event A: odd number, {1, 3, 5, 7}
Event B: number > 4, {5, 6, 7, 8}
Event C: 1 or 2, {1, 2}

a. Find P(C’)
b. P (A ∩ B)
c. P (A| B)
d. Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Explain.
e. Are events A and B independent? Explain.

S4.4
a. Find a probability that a randomly selected person has a birthday on Jan 1.
b. Find a probability that of 6 randomly selected persons, no two share the same birthday.
c. Find a probability that of 4 randomly selected persons have same birthday.

S4.5
Apple has three factories to produce MacBook in: China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. A
certain model of MacBook is produced by these manufacturers in quantities of 40%, 30%, and
30%, respectively. 20%, 35% and 45% of the MacBook produced in China, Vietnam and Indonesia
are Pro, respectively.
a. If a MacBook produced by the company is selected at random, find the probability that
it is Pro.
b. Given that a MacBook selected at random is Pro, find the probability that it came from
Vietnam.
S4.6
Suppose a test for the Covid-19 virus is 90% accurate. The test gives a positive result for 90% of
those taking the test who are Covid-19 positive. Also, the test gives a negative result for 90% of
those taking the test who are not Covid-19 positive.
a. According to an estimate in 2020, approximately 5 million people in the Ho Chi Minh city
are Covid-19 positive. The population of this city is approximately 15 million. Suppose a
random Ho Chi Minh city resident takes the test and tests positive, what is the probability
that the person is infected given that they have tested positive? We let P denote the event
that a person chosen at random from the population tests positive, we let I denote the event
that a person chosen at random is infected.
b. Suppose we use a kit test from another manufacturer, it is 85% accurate when a person has
positive Covid-19 and 99% accurate when a person does not have the virus. What is the
probability that a person chosen randomly from the population who test negative for the
Covid-19 actually has the negative Covid-19 virus?

S4.7
A restaurant manager was investigating the satisfaction of customers in a week. A simple
random sample of 800 customers from all four age levels was taken. Each customer was given
the statement “Give your opinion about the quality of this restaurant,” and asked whether they
completely agreed, agreed, had no opinion, disagreed, or completely disagreed. The following
contingency table summarizes the results.
Age Completely Agreed No Opinion Disagreed Completely Totals
Agreed Disagreed
<20 38 30 10 xx xx 177
20- <40 42 xx 0 110 32 262
40 - <60 xx 0 23 74 xx 211
> 60 11 40 xx 16 16 150
Total 183 148 100 200 169 800
a. Complete the contingency table
b. What is the marginal probability of those customers who have no opinion?
c. Compute the conditional probability that a customer agreed with the statement given their
age between 40 and 60.
d. What is the conditional probability that a customer whose age is greater than 20 given
they completely agreed?
e. Say another survey was going to take a simple random sample of only 500 persons who
are over 60 and ask their opinion of the same statement above. How many people that agree
with the statement would they expect to find?
 Solutions:
S4.1
Yes. 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent.
Notice that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) So, 0.95 = 0.45 + 0.80 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Solving for 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵), we find that 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.3
If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.3 ≠ 0.45 ∗ 0.80 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) =0.36
Thus, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are not independent

S4.2
(a) The sample space
S = {(i, j):1 ≤ i ≤ 6, 1 ≤ j ≤ 6}.
In total 6 × 6 = 36 elements.
(b) The event E is
E = {(1, 4),(2, 3),(3, 2),(4, 1)},
And P(E) = 4/36=1/9

(c) This conditional probability is 2/4=0.5

S4.3

a. P(C’)=1-P(C)=1-2/8=0.75
b. A ∩ B={5,7} => P(A ∩ B)=2/8=0.25
c. P(A|B)=P(B∩A)/P(B)=0.25/0.5=0.5
d. Events A and B are not mutually exclusive because their intersection is not empty
P(A ∩ B)=2/8=0.25.
e. Events A and B are independent because
P(A|B)=0.5 = P(A) or P(A ∩B)=0.25=P(A)*P(B)

S4.4
a. 1/365
b. 365/365*364/365*363/365*362/365*361/365*360/365=0.959
c. 365/365*1/365*1/365*1/365=2.05e-8

S4.5
a. (0.40)(0.20)+(0.30)(0.35)+(0.30)(0.45)=0.32

𝑃(𝑉𝑁)𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑜|𝑉𝑁) 0.3∗0.35
b. 𝑃(𝑉𝑁|𝑃𝑟𝑜) = = = 0.328
𝑃(𝑃𝑟𝑜) 0.32

S4.6
a. We need to find P(I|P)
 𝑃(𝑃|𝐼)𝑃(𝐼) 0.9 ∗ 5/15
𝑃(𝐼|𝑃) = = = 0.818
𝑃(𝑃|𝐼)𝑃(𝐼) + 𝑃(𝑃|𝑁𝐼)𝑃(𝑁𝐼) 0.9 ∗ 5 + 0.1 ∗ 10
15 15

.1

10/15
.9

.1
5/15

.9

b.

We need to find P(NI|NP)

𝑃(𝑁𝑃|𝑁𝐼)𝑃(𝑁𝐼) 0.99 ∗ 10/15

𝑃(𝑁𝐼|𝑁𝑃) = = = 0.929
𝑃(𝑁𝑃|𝑁𝐼)𝑃(𝑁𝐼) + 𝑃(𝑁𝑃|𝐼)𝑃(𝐼) 10 5
0.99 ∗ + 0.15 ∗
15 15

.01

10/15
.99

.15
5/15

.85

S4.7
a.
 Age Completely Agreed No Opinion Disagreed Completely Totals
Agreed Disagreed
<20 38 30 10 0 99 177
20- <40 42 78 0 110 32 262
40 - <60 92 0 23 74 22 211
> 60 11 40 67 16 16 150
183 148 100 200 169 800

b. 100/800=0.125
c. P(Agreed|40-<60)=0/211=0
d. P(>20|Completedly agreed)=(42+92+11)/183=.792
e. P(Agreed|>60)=40/150=0.266 => number of people: 0.266*500≈133 persons over 60
that agree with the statement.