War in Libya

A Bit of History
After World War II, Libya declared its independence in 1951 and its three
provinces merged under a constitutional monarchy which allowed in 1953
and 1954, the British and the Americans to establish their military bases in
Libya respectively. Local oil reserves were discovered in 1959-69 the
booming economy transformed the Libyan society as urbanization
increased. Furthermore, Arab nationalism and anti-imperialism as
exemplified by Nasser, the President of Egypt became quite popular among
the disaffected youth especially in the Western part of Libya. The east-west
divide in Libya is a part of its tribal history. The monarch of Libya, King Idris
1, concentrated more on the eastern parts (Cyrenaica) to which he himself belonged and people in the west had their own
grievances against him.
Muammar Qaddafi was in 1969, a 27 year old captain and he along with a group of junior military officials arranged for a
coup. Foreign army bases were evacuated and oil industry was nationalized. In 1980s and 90s, differences b/w Libya and
US intensified as the latter blamed the former for a number of terrorist attacks. Sanctions were imposed and ties were cut
off. In 1999, Libya agreed to give up its citizens to be tried for their terrorist activities and in the early 21st century it also
agreed to roll back its WMD programs. Sanctions were lifted and diplomatic relationships were re-established.

The First Civil War

This started b/w the protesters and the Qaddafi led Libyan government in February 2011 when the Libyan government
arrested a human rights activist/lawyer. This arrest led to protests against the government especially in the Eastern parts
of the country where the people’s political rights had been violated more often and more frequently. Protests motivated
largely by the successful Arab Springs in Tunisia and Egypt, started in Benghazi and spilled over into other areas of the
country. The government tried to suppress them by use of force. Many government officials and military commanding
officers especially those belonging to the east defected and this allowed the protestors to get weapons and ammunition.
The opposing forces in Libya also formed an interim governing body during this time – the National Transitional Council
(NTC). As the international media received reports of violence, the rebels took control of Benghazi and the UN announced
sanctions on Libya. Later on, the UN authorized member states to establish and enforce a no-fly zone over Libya. After this,
direct foreign involvement started as the US led NATO coalition bombed Libya’s air defense systems before launching air
strikes to neutralize Qaddafi’s forces. The rebels continued to make progress despite some setbacks and were eventually
able to take Tripoli though Qaddafi escaped from there. By September 2011, TNC started to shift its operations to the capital
– Tripoli, and in the same month, it gained new legitimacy as the UN General Assembly voted to recognize the TNC as the
representative body of the Libyan people. Qaddafi was later found in Surt (his hometown) and was executed in October
2011.

The Aftermath and the Second Civil War

When the Qaddafi regime fell in 2011, centralized power quickly dissipated and Libya fell into chaos. A wide range of armed
groups asserted control over large swathes of territory in the oil-rich nation (oil reserves concentrated in the east) without
any effective central authority strong enough to exert control of the entire country. Once Qaddafi was dead, there was no
common cause and the strong and historic tribal and regional identities came to the forefront – which led to political and
ideological disputes that evolved into a full-fledges civil war. Some militias operating in Libya leaned towards the West while
others wanted a stricter version of the Sharia to be implemented throughout the country. Since then, Libya has become a
battleground for powers outside and inside Libya with competing interests and conflicting visions.
After the 2012 elections, Libya was governed by the General National Congress (GNC). Since then, Islamist parties had
controlled the assembly, outmaneuvering the majority centrists and liberals. In December 2013, the GNC voted to enforce
a variant of sharia law and decided to extend its 18-month mandate for a year until the end of 2014. On 14 February 2014,
in a coup attempt, General Khalifa Haftar, who served under the former regime of Muammar Gaddafi, called on the GNC to
dissolve and for the formation of a caretaker government committee to oversee new elections. In May 2014, forces loyal
to General Haftar launched a large scale air and ground offensive codenamed “Operation Dignity” against Islamist armed
groups in Benghazi and against the GNC in Tripoli. In June, the GNC called for new elections to a Council of Deputies:
Islamists were defeated, but rejected the results of the election, which saw only an 18% turnout. Anyway, the elections held
in Libya in May 2014 were lost by the Islamist
coalition called “Libya Dawn.” This was led by the
MB and refused to accept the election results.
The fighters of Dawn established their own
parallel system to replace the GNC which was
forced out of Tripoli into Tobruk and this elected
Tobruk government became known as House of
Representatives (HoR). Despite the numerous
efforts by the UN to settle their differences, the
two governments in Tripoli (GNC) and Tobruk
(HoR) still have their differences.
Put simply, the crisis could be framed as a
contest between Islamist and Arab nationalists –
a familiar trope throughout the Arab world.
But there are other factors at play, including
regional rivalries, rump parliaments and outside
agendas that don't always align neatly. Here are
the key actors at present in the Libyan
maelstrom:
1. The Government: even when the central
government in Tripoli held sway over
Libya, it was a fragile institution beholden to the myriad of factions that surrounded it. Now there are two parallel
governments although the one in Tobruk with Abdullah al Thanni as the PM is the one identified internationally as
representative of the Libyan people. But there is little that this government can do on its own since the militias and
the terrorists possess weapons not only greater in quantity but also in quality. So the Tobruk government has asked
the international community for its help, though not direct help.
2. General Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army: Haftar held a senior position in the forces which overthrew
Gaddafi in the 2011 Civil War. In 2014 he was commander of the Libyan Army when the GNC refused to give up
power in accordance with its term of office. Haftar launched a campaign against the GNC and its Islamic
fundamentalist allies. His campaign allowed elections to take place to replace the GNC, but then developed into a
civil war. He launched his Operation Dignity to destroy the Libyan branch of Muslim Brotherhood and to defeat
other terrorist organizations in Libya. In March 2015, he was made the commander of the forces by HoR.
3. Militias: a number of militias have been active in Libya since 2011 although they have gained increasing importance
over the last two years or so. They can be divided into 3 groups:
a. Islamist Organizations: concentrated in the West, these militias support the new GNC in Tripoli and want
Sharia to be imposed as the law of the land. These groups include:
i. Libya Dawn: it challenged the result of the 2014 elections. Many of its fighters came from the city
of Misrata but these fighters have left the group.
ii. Libya Shield: this group has pro-Islamist branches fighting all over the country especially in areas in
the East where the government’s hold has been relatively stronger.
iii. Other pro-NGNC groups
b. Terrorist Organizations: these groups have taken advantage of the turmoil in the strategic North African
country to expand not only their influence and base of operations but also to expand the regions where
anti-terrorist coalitions have to fight them globally. On the ground, it is very difficult to differentiate
members of one group from another:
i. ISIS: the crisis in Libya has been nothing less than a boon from heaven for ISIS. Under pressure due
to the strikes specifically targeted at ISIS in Syria and Iraq, it has exported its ideology to other
countries where locals have pledged allegiance to ISIS. Then followed a number of its fighters in
Syria who had originally gone from Libya. The year 2015 saw ISIS rise in Libya especially after it
captured the coastal city of Surt (aka Sirte). While ISIS has attacked oil pipelines controlled by the
French, it has so far not developed the capability so far as Libya is concerned to control the flow of
oil resources. ISIS has stuck to its methods of one-off important attacks instead of continuous
 fighting. It has attacked important sites in Benghazi and Tripoli to show its power and has been
successful in doing so.
ii. Ansar ul Sharia: the group is considered to be an affiliate of the AQIM (Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghrib).
Its fighters have been engaged in a jihad mostly in the eastern parts especially in Benghazi. They
have been battling the Libyan Army for nearly two years. This group is also assumed to have been
responsible for the deadly attack on US diplomatic compound in Benghazi on 11 September 2012.
iii. Other Al-Qaeda Affiliates
c. Pro-Government Militias: on the side of the internationally-recognized authorities are various battalions
comprising the Libyan armed forces as well as units supporting them. Haftar’s Operation Dignity targeted
Islamist groups, and largely operated alongside but outside of military's official ranks. Despite his official
appointment as head of the armed forces, the opposition (pro-Islamist authorities, media and militias)
continues to refer to his army battalions as "Haftar's forces". These militias include the Al-Zintan and Al-
Saiqa forces among others.
4. Muslim Brotherhood: the Society of Muslim Brothers (aka Muslim Brotherhood - MB) is an Islamic organization
formed in 1928 in Egypt as a Pan-Islamic religious, political and social movement. It has influenced many in the Arab
world including the organization Hamas. As of 2015, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bahrain, Egypt and Russia have
branded it as a terrorist organization.
5. Qatar: this Middle Eastern country along with UAE, played an important role in the anti-Qaddafi struggle but the
two emerged on the opposite sides of the grander geopolitical struggle and the war in Libya has also been called a
proxy war b/w the 2. Qatari forces were also involved in the air strikes on Qaddafi’s forces and his loyalists. However,
since 2011 Qatar has emerged as one of the key backers of political Islam in the MENA (Middle East & North Africa)
region especially with respect to the MB which it also supported in Egypt and some other Islamist organizations it
supports from Tunisia to Syria. Qatar has supported MB for quite some time now probably because it sees the
Brotherhood as a political tool it can use to increase its influence in key regions and create its own niche in the
Middle East (to come out of Saudi Arabia’s shadow). Libya may be important for Qatar because of its large oil and
gas reserves which Qatar will be able to control if it eventually decides to sell either of them to the EU.
6. Egypt: the situation in Egypt after the Arab Spring has been characterized by a deep rift b/w the Islamists and the
secularists. It is essential and of strategic value to Egypt that Libya should be free of terrorists and should not be a
safe haven for them. So far Egypt has done it in more or less an indirect method by providing UAE its bases for air
strikes and by supporting in various ways General Haftar’s Operation Dignity. This has especially been because Egypt
itself has shown that the effects of the Arab Spring can be reversed (MB backed Morsi being replaced by the general
Sisi). If however a situation were to arise where ISIS would step up its operations in Libya either itself or by
supporting foreign fighters such as the ongoing augmentation from the Boko Haram or by expanding its territory,
Egypt might have to interfere directly. Egypt has economic interests as well – before the revolution, some 2 million
Egyptians were employed in Libya and the figure was lower than 750000 earlier this year.
7. UAE: the small country has been for the past years trying to increase its global role to diversify its group of partners
on whom it can rely – partnerships in the Middle East are usually short lived. It is probably the only Arab nation to
be directly involved in Afghanistan. UAE has also participated in negotiations on Yemen, though it has distanced
itself from Syria so far. For UAE, it is imperative to check the gains made by MB not only in Libya but anywhere
because of the Brotherhood’s potential to challenge the status quo in at least the poorer emirates where the local
MB branch has several supporters. Moreover, UAE seems to be tired of Saudi Arabia taking a vocal stance against
the Islamists without doing anything about it, and this could very well be a signal that UAE is willing to take a lead
role within the GCC to carry out operations against destabilizing forces. Finally, some analysts also say that AUE’s
decision to send its fighter jets to Libya against Gaddafi, someone with whom UAE enjoyed cordial relations up to
that point, was just a decision to ensure that UAE did not end up on the wrong side of the international coalition
that was already in the making – the writing was on the wall and it was not considered wise to ignore it.
8. Saudi Arabia: it has already extended billions of dollars in aid to Sisi’s government in Egypt and this aid might have
been used in Libya operations but Saudi Arabia has a history of funding Sunni-Salafist organizations in the region as
a part of its struggle against Iran. In Libya however, it has had only a limited influence and interference especially
since it has concentrated more on Yemen. Some expect Saudi Arabia to play a more proactive role in helping the
US and Europe to enforce cease-fires and in their attempts to establish a national unity government in the future
but it seems to be unlikely.
 9. USA: America initially tried to follow a wait and see policy where it hoped that Gaddafi would not allow the Arab
Spring to spread any further. In such a case, US could publicly criticize the regime while privately pat it on its back.
Some conspiracy theorists may however suggest that US designed the whole Libyan campaign to overthrow Gaddafi
(and they see Libya’s giving up its WMD program as a part of such a long term plot). In any case, US was left with
no option after the French and Qatar governments recognized the new government in Libya even before Gaddafi
was replaced. Plus, the implementation of no-fly zone along with some other developments forced US to be drawn
directly into the war.
10. France: it was among the first Western nations if not the first to voice its support for the rebels in 2011. This can
be attributed to a number of reasons:
a. Domestic Politics: the French government had to deal with its reputation after it did not show support for
the rebels and protestors in Tunisia and Egypt (because the foreign minister of France had used private jet
of a businessman closely associated with Ben Ali of Tunisia). So to cover up its earlier mistakes, the
government outpaced everyone in the case of Libya.
b. Intra-European Politics: it was a good opportunity to reassert to Europe and especially Germany that France
could still lead the continent on foreign and military affairs. Ever since the EU had been facing an economic
crisis and Greek’s economy had declined, Germany had tried to use the power of its purse to shape EU’s
policies and events to its own liking. Thus 2011 Libyan revolts were no less than a blessing for France to
come into the forefront once again.
c. Strategic Concerns in Africa: Gaddafi’s rising influence during the decade preceding the revolution across
the African continent, and especially his willingness to bankroll regimes in West Africa, had placed France’s
economic and cultural influence at risk.

Issues of Importance
The long lasting war in Libya can have multiple effects and it raised a number of questions especially in 2011 with regards
to the Arab Spring:
1. Risk of a Wider War: the proxy war b/w Qatar and UAE could spread to other regions and this conflict, if it spreads
to the already destabilized regions of the Middle East can increase further if that is possible the improbability of
establishing peace. Qatar hosts Ali Salabi (a leader of the Islamists) while UAE is the support base for Mahmud Jibril
(a leading nationalist politician).
2. Is Libyan Dawn another ISIS: the Dawn insists that its motives include to ensure that the country is run by
revolutionaries and not politicians – what the purpose of the initial revolution was. However, its actions speak
otherwise (torching an international airport, burning more than 200 homes, wrecking government ministries,
militiamen kidnapping those who have surnames common with pro-government tribes and their self-proclaimed
PM is a former Islamist guerrilla fighter). So far as their political motives are concerned, the Libyan Dawn does not
wish to establish a trans-border caliphate, has more tribal and regional than sectarian concerns etc.
3. Potential Break-up of Libya: the country is a recent construction, cemented into a single state by Italian occupiers
in the 1930s. Tensions between the regions of Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica in the east and Fezzan to the south
are ever-present. To those is added Tripoli now being under the control of Libyan Dawn, with the newly elected
government decamping to the city of Tobruk in Cyrenaica. Some in Cyrenaica think separation is the answer, noting
that the region contains two-thirds of the oil of Libya, which holds the largest reserves in Africa. The government
itself is determined to reconnect with the rest of the country, but it lacks the armed forces to take back Tripoli,
making de-facto partition the present reality.
4. Western Military Intervention: direct interference by the Western nations seems unlikely so far as the non-ISIS
entities are concerned. Any intervention that takes place will probably be directed against the Islamic State, not
against either of the two governments. Plus the proxy dimension will further complicate the situation for the
Western nations – who will they support, those backed by Qatar or by UAE and Egypt.
5. Is the Arab Spring Dead: some more than 4 years ago pro-democracy revolutions swept Syria, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt
and Libya. Since then around 300,000 people have been killed in Syria, Yemen’s reforms have stalled and it has
become a scene of war, Egypt is back under quasi-military rule and civil war rages in Libya. Only Tunisia has
produced a functioning parliamentary system. This grim reality has seen some write off the Arab Spring as followed
by an inevitable Arab Winter. Others - the optimists - say the bloodshed is part of the growing pains of populations
wanting freedom pushing back against the old order. Libya’s own future is in the balance, with a democratically
elected parliament at one end of the country and Libyan Dawn controlling Tripoli at the other. Having failed to win
 the hearts and minds of Libya’s voters, the country’s Islamists appear to have decided to take power the hard way,
setting up a struggle that will define whether Libya’s democratic dream gets into orbit or comes crashing back to
Earth.

Peace Deal
A deal has been signed to bring this conflict - which has threatened to destabilize the whole region and has contributed to
the refugee problem of EU - to an end. The UN has taken a huge gamble by pressing ahead with the signing of the deal -
some key politicians, let alone armed groups, have opposed it. The UN hopes they will eventually back the deal. Otherwise,
Libya could sink deeper into conflict as supporters and opponents of the deal try to strengthen their positions.
At the heart of the deal lies the formation of a unity government, bringing together lawmakers from Libya's rival parliaments
- one based in the capital Tripoli and the other about 1,000km (620 miles) away in the port city of Tobruk. The UN and
Western nations hope it will bring about stability, defeat jihadi groups, and help control the flow of migrants and refugees
across the Mediterranean. They have taken a greater interest in Libya since the so-called Islamic State (IS) group gained a
foothold in the country last year. Italy is spearheading plans to send 6,000 troops to Libya to assist local troops in curbing
IS-linked groups from gaining more territory. But it is still unclear where the new government will be based, how it will be
chosen, or who will head it.

Release of Saif
Saif, the son of Gaddafi has been given his liberty on April 12, 2016, in accordance with the amnesty law passed by the
Tobruk parliament the previous year. What is so significant about his release, however, is what it represents: the
recognition, by Libya’s elected authorities, that there is no future for Libya without the involvement of the Jamahiriya
movement – the socialist movement started by Gaddafi. The truth is, this movement never went away. Rather, having been
forced underground in 2011, it has been increasingly coming out into the open, building up its support amongst a population
sick of the depravities and deprivations of the post-Gaddafi era. Over the years that followed, as the militias turned on each
other and the country rapidly fell apart, reports began to suggest that much of southern Libya was slowly coming under the
control of Gaddafi’s supporters. On January 18th 2014, an air force base near the southern city of Sabha was taken by
Gaddafi loyalists, frightening the new government enough to impose a state of emergency, ban Libya’s two pro-Gaddafi
satellite stations, and embark on aerial bombing missions in the south of the country.

Export of Oil, Again

Libya’s state-controlled National Oil Co. said on 31 July 2016 that it was taking steps to restart exports from three blocked
oil ports after the government reached a deal with local guards that had blocked the facilities during a pay dispute. The deal
could help revive Libya’s sagging oil exports, which have been curtailed as various factions fight for control of this North
African nation.