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US import ban expected to have


significant impact on Supermax's
earnings, say analysts
Tan Siew Mung / theedgemarkets.com
October 21, 2021 15:40 pm +08

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 21): The US Customs and Border Protection's


(CBP) move to ban imports from glove maker Supermax Corp Bhd
over alleged forced labour at the company is expected to have a
signi!cant impact on its earnings, said analysts on Thursday (Oct 21).

“The US historically contributes around 20% to 30% of its earnings.


So, we expect a signi!cant impact on its earnings, considering gloves
command premium pricing in the US compared to other countries,”
KAF Research analyst Nabil Zainoodin told The Edge.

According to him, the impact also depends on how long it takes for
Supermax to resolve the issue.

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“Note that it took almost a year for Top Glove Corp Bhd to be cleared
of the ban,” he added.

He also expects signi!cant operating margin reversal in the


forthcoming quarters as average selling prices (ASPs) of gloves will
be contracting faster than expected in the face of enlarged capacity.

“Note that Supermax's expansion plan is still ongoing in a big way


with !ve glove manufacturing plants currently under construction,”
he said.

According to Supermax's latest !nancial results and bourse !ling,


the group completed the commissioning of the remaining
production lines in Block B of Plant 12 in the last quarter of 2020
(4Q20), adding 2.2 billion gloves to the group’s annual installed
capacity. The group has seen full-quarter contributions since 1Q21.

The company is currently building the !ve glove manufacturing


plants concurrently, which are scheduled for completion
progressively. The new plants will add 22.25 billion pieces of gloves
in new capacity, bringing the group’s total capacity to 48.42 billion
gloves when they are fully commissioned. Supermax would invest a
total capital expenditure of RM1.39 billion in the new plants.

Meanwhile, an analyst who declined to be named said the US import


ban may reduce the company's earnings by 15% for the !nancial year
ending June 30, 2022 (FY22) as the US accounts for 50% of its sales.

As Top Glove took more than one year to lift the ban, he expects
Supermax to probably take at least one year to resume exports to the
US.

He opined that Supermax will immediately hire an auditor to go


through the audit process and assess the damage from the impact of
the ban.

However, he noted that the earnings impact will also depend on


Supermax’s strategies.

“If the group decides to dump its gloves (like what Top Glove did
when facing the import ban by the US), the earnings impact may be
less,” he said.

He does not rule out the possibility of Supermax dumping gloves as


the company logged in high prices in 4Q20.

“If the company dumps its gloves, glove ASPs, which were falling by
8% to 10% in October to December, will likely decline faster,” he said.

Fortress Capital Asset Management chief executive o"cer Thomas


Yong also opined that the immediate impact of the CBP import ban
on Supermax’s earnings is quite negative as about one-third of its
earnings come from the US market, which usually can provide a
higher selling price compared to other markets.

“The recovery pace would depend on how fast the company can
rectify the ban as well as its ability to look for markets elsewhere,” he
told The Edge.

He also said demand for gloves is already slowing down with the
covid-19 vaccination rate rising globally, and the urgency of a big
market player to sell its gloves in a relatively short period of time
would intensify the competition as large players would strive to
maintain their market share.

“Furthermore, players selling outside the US might face sti#


competition from Chinese companies as they are ramping up
capacity aggressively. All these potential developments are
suggesting that a decline in selling prices will be inevitable,” he
added.

In a press release on Thursday, the CBP said its o"cers at all US


ports of entry will detain disposable gloves produced by Supermax’s
wholly-owned subsidiaries Maxter Glove Manufacturing Sdn Bhd,
Maxwell Glove Manufacturing Bhd and Supermax Glove
Manufacturing.

“With 10 of the 11 forced labour indicators identi!ed during the


course of our investigation, the CBP has su"cient evidence to
conclude that Supermax and its subsidiaries produce gloves in
violation of US trade law,” said CBP O"ce of Trade executive
assistant commissioner AnnMarie R Highsmith.

At the time of writing on Thursday, Supermax founder Datuk Seri


Stanley Thai Kim Sim had not responded to questions sent by The
Edge.

The share price of Supermax fell as much as 25 sen or 12.5% to a 17-


month low of RM2. At 3.10pm, the counter had pared some losses at
RM2.02, still down 23 sen or 10.22%. It was the eighth top loser on
Bursa Malaysia, and the most actively traded stock on
Thursday morning with 59.77 million shares done.

Read also:
US Customs issues seize order on Supermax products on forced
labour !nding
Supermax plunges as US Customs issues seize order on forced
labour allegations

Edited by Lam Jian Wyn


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