chapter One cis the people tha “ahined shemales? bu athe the people mad ‘sed by othe and mised by misorered counsel. “Te people ae never coe peed kd Rouse, "but sometimes decied” Tal hese wiys conventional hough has svided the punfl task of gripping sero wich lsh evidence undeuniing the sandud versions of democratic theory. “Well es, hee are poblems we san then we tum hick wo the imposible dream. In conequenc, cher dusions and ‘wish flint have dominated boch popula and scholalyshough about democracy fortwo cetuis, Democatictheor as sed alongs ifno ce ‘erga strck and he engine oom wee noc aking wars, Br the dam ageeothelntellecal wesc serra Bock the llare andthe east of roman Ia this domain were el _qeelydecibed by poli philosopher John Dunn (1999, 42-343) ia essay on democrat polite accouneabliey: "Tobe ruled abot necessary and inherely scons well a dangerous). For ou roles o be accountable to us sofens its iis uns, probably ss sore hay imis tothe has that hey wll, ‘lunacy choose wo do vou elle and chs diminishes Some ‘of he dangers to which thi ale may expose us To suggest hat me can ever hope to ave the power to make them acoso we woakd ‘ich hem co suggests hate iselly we not hey. who aeralng This ‘san lion. and probably 2 somewhat malign dlsone athe asl ecepcion, or an nance of blag dcrned by others or very probaly bork ‘Dunn wencono ty ta" plial scence hs ddjunicero democracy in llc ambigig) would have ro beonein which he presence of hese prep tions and senciments wa ecogpived and explained nd thee consequences ccurtely anes, atone in which thir exence was denied or dlmlned ‘sais inthe Baise” ‘The hisory of democratic choght—incuing much cotemporry po- Ica weienoo—s marked byanadiction co ome heen, Ar with sy ddieson the fist ep owatdssovery toad that we have problem, “Ts, oi aim in thir ook sto docamene she gap herwen democsse sess and elt. Then we wl mae a are ouaed the moe tober under standing of democrey advocated by Dunn, 2» 2 ‘The Elusive Mandate: Elections and the Mirage of Popular Control A god del of diol most hery end w ee ‘noe nelson han thy an oped We ‘specedetnsto reece wl orth pace me= ‘nyon soins Tsing eens ely Joep inane i ic, Rak A Dah Pet Dea hay 956181) Robert Dahl (1956 1) bean 4 Profi to Demat Thary by acknowl. Ingthat “there iso demceratithear—there ar oni democrat theories” [Nevertheless he noted (1956, 345) tha “unning rough the whol is racy of democratic there the iden of emery’ wth policl gle poplar sovereign andre by maja noon of Popalic ‘SeDemocray" he associned wath such diverse hikes as Arto, Locke Roast Jeon, de Tocqueril and Liesl, ails notion of "Pople Democracy” coreponds closely with wha vee hve called the ol henry" of democracy. a prtcl, ts emphasis on popular sovereignty requis thar whenever poiy choices ce pereved to ‘x thelr seleced and enforeed a governnenal policy ithe alee nase mos prefered by che memiben” ofthe evan pli community (Dab 1956, 37) But How migh popula soveregny in thi sense ally come about Theorists ahs tadion and practones alk have focused ‘onto primary mechanisns—clectoral comperion and “ese democracy” {nthe orm of poplar ntiatveso cfr, We consider thes 0 mech ssn this and the flloing chapter especie. ‘As the Gilded Age of he late 1th ceury came oan end, axitocaie Engl obverser James Bryce (1594, 923) poreayed Americans machingcaper Tw “ic sendy eps cond new sagen the eon of gover “Goverment by Pubic Opinions which ew ofthe ool son recy and constantly apo cate and legate agers: Pepa 22 poll movemen rested inthe United Stein he 169 bt he Progen Er tha lowed ws a hrs by high ens fo popular denoercy asa brad pola des Hisaan Chars Beard 1912, 14), who could be clereyed ad een eyial abot the pole more ofthe Foundes, everthees expres he concn that -eyey Banc of dow sharin ease nde he inlne of popular las been che ith enlightenmene and humaney” He aged tht ee ew pli incon incdinghe nate, ef and eal dy roc sl beer goverment in theft oh gener donne ‘on nthe sane it Jahn Dewey (927.16 ed tac arn ‘i but" wellasted conto nhs fc” that geese can sere the peopl ony when “he comma al shares in ssng fe seo and demining the plc” Ere the famouse eas ‘lic and poi observer H-L Mende (191619) expel sep cima eos nto ings" dry tat he common peopl they wane and dre oe pod ‘By the tide ofthe 20h cnr the paid as eyelid ‘noth Ameren ola clue and coll andesandingot Sanecacy Poli hink who resid "the Wefan of emocae ih plc ‘el equa poplar sovecgny, andl by maori fe cpl to aplin wy As we noted inthe previous chap, oh champ (194, 25) prfced his own theory of democracy witha sein eign of he neal of "dsl doce in which democay elas he common sed by making the people decide ve chngh the elon ond ‘dsl who arc asenbl in order so cary ons wil Da (1956 les dois of opi” Jeno. bu emphasned te impor oF atematve" Madson’ en "plyarchalconepins ven Wil ik ‘rho would eerie populism aroun igh of hand wed {0 sty coercion inthe mame of temporary or pious sors (198 13-14) woeinaietry Ameen genet eer 1953, 9 22) eh" sponsible gorenme oly pose when cco se ‘0 conde that a hoc of ren a deco on pls Meade hat bis the Sot Unio “area fade. bce the ac fg serment doesnot permite lance ply aking” T = ‘oe Base Mandate ronal the decades in which Scharpeter and been Dabl and Riker wrote hyve reco ewo anor intellect challenges wo the Fe shear Gocof these ws ogc challenge stemeing fom the cheorsial wore of ‘Sononits sudvingcollecive choice. Duncan Black (1948; 1958) Kenneth ‘Kr (1951), and Anthony Downs (1957) ll made fundamental cont ‘odors 0a theny of democracy focsng o@ the uanlacion of individ pertrenee into collective choice throug lng, While hr wok gue the Populi ea a mc dene snd more dine form than cha previouty Fa eal rvealedunespected dil i che very nocon of popular sovereign) severe enough o provoke Re’ sobeeuene ee SSovof “ceri nthe mime of enpery ox spusous majors” “The second formidable mi-centry challenge tthe popula ame fom soilogjts and posses harening the new technology of sure such tothe icy of poli opilon an lecrord polis. Tine fc eosin, hey fond cat che opinions ad behasir of ordinary c= ens compere poor with expecaons derived rm democratic theory 35 they understood ih i om the ll shear. For example, a em frm ‘Columbia Univesity conducted pathbeeakng empl eudes of voting ‘behavior inthe 1940 and 1948 presidental elections (Lazar, Beeson, and Gander 1948; Berd, Laas and MePhee 1954) They produced Tong list of contents Berween demi eas and their own findings ing vote? snoiionsknowedge. and soning, “The democratic ce inca b expected co be well informed sboorpolideal fas? they wrote (Besson, ard and McPhee 1984308). "He ssupporedo know whae the ser at, whit hel history ig wha he leant fits ae whalers ‘es are proposed, wha che party sands fo, what she likely consequences tue Dy such standards he voter fll shore” As we willow, subsequence ‘euch by age many ther choles as cme t esi eondasons Tn he seaindrof thi chaper we tale up bth these challenges the {alk cheory of democracy, We begin withthe loa challeng, hen can 0 sheen challenge. “THE “SPATIAL MODEL” OF VOTING AND ELECTIONS “The mos systematic and sophisaed instanton ofthe poplisieai the “iti node” of vocing and eleons. Although the mode has been 2 ‘mains of pla science fo the pasalf cera was olga foe Tae eimai by ecncmiss—perhaps because che elle framework 2ape Taw tani mel nly wh he ve ai nF tna ue gee nul tres ino verte Sein Eitan ty pr Da ily (99039) pa ir sinolagd nat tt omen moe ed icon sted often te nporant sche w a prc in epee howe hae aha nd ‘kin omen Hen ci che Sane peony Cond ihn te spe neg feed ee el Tn ee dng ficult greater Somat thay deme, thecal en fel mode dpm Anny ewe 957 oe pel pa? ingen On ae ose oe fem Eko Bake pe ‘Suey natch nemo cng polyps salon xh pry eed yep ering he oy “loses ea smd nat deg | _ —rsts— lg dimen Psa ed onto peep fof egy ng arn ete ce Theiler wher cia arte a cide ng dey Inge pede pre ‘tle conapendig be ncine! dedi Fr eps T-cell 2.1957] pgp oad Hog ha bly sebelah sone pe cel semana iiss. 1 Dawa en fpr ee dhs dda bt dd eins idence ysl opie premolar em gc inmyname tio wih ny sosng Wer fra pay Er ant Se pon nnn one oe atts Deon ogre hed ered ee tape ec eee ‘jedan sd ete ese hy hel te a ppecen fcr tna wn opie bm nbn {9 90 alc 20) ‘ed ore cine ned arc meng Bn ceca incense tele pry coco “Unload ey plod te la wl ys ed ce ean eng io omean onan ohh) eh ial don fy neg de mean ‘ean eens he Boos? He bray ee ‘cturngtom inp verano mad er mo ‘eats bern neta ed ae ac, 7 “he Bue ardate moc gener eth egaing callie choice with single peaked preferences {Blac 1948) Since platform (and elon goveromet policy loeel t the median ofthe dcr f vee uel pols haa stale average di- Canc from ll oe idea points han anyother Fae pai dhe median ove theoten veto np dha the mere face flee competion will sate har votes pefrences aswel aed in a uelitaran senza they pony canbe. Tht she voter enjoy esponsve goverment repaiseof Ithch party wis any given ection. In acon o beacon and normaskely zeae, the pac theory sexed to provide «compling cxplaaion fr the ideologically mated pol ines of mid 20d ‘Sr diicales Aro! there demon wth macbenace igor {Er war many pple anc omont-=-sible “deo” proce ‘capes hccs ini ccs to ave nck cle ‘hehout sing lngaly wine One coment Chas Pore (97631112) sderedenber melodanatalro Anow’ cre eleited ort wo ss imc enero which nol oar about sol cos, Alon aching» non as ee i Shoo wae sory wun o shal gee heed wih mca ico rene cow though pope eben alk for es aoa hing that own rnp ex nda maf ianecedto ew eject ‘Tin fom th comets” Of, Aron trem ad thea Simerioa pal motel a spec omelatonsoftbe pole of ale ‘he cic win the mow fewer of he lk hor of democracy eck oum onl oat anyone fat ve ld ioe ober osey wan ot {hold ge Noes the able eh he popisdead nto oil incoherent win hi sip ering cong ho Sto amo pra jo fi eo procter peice on in denotuipotes. “SEequem wok by polit sess (Steps 1979; ker 1980, Cal ct 195) hs tej ose and plain homie pli Suton shape calle cho inthe sen of elle of ee” {er 1980 diabledecy fm indo! pees For xls semen als comission nee ns {Esc ply ple cies uly ent xen ‘Si een ncn whe dbuton opto oe ‘ould ae any oucome potently epee wbelngovared ough {gendaaipltin sad malidmensonl lglg. eal pole waihivn Wtian dasioan oes son “Seirus ooldcae nee whe tye he ‘ati hen ey epee wench “ivarnacon pny ner yeschapter Te Inca felis Reh sonal) a —r—~—<“~—s—sOSSsS -~—rté<“<~r™t~S~—~—~—™™ theo ops Bn dean chan spe peice epee th ene oes ace et he fp pnp ‘es atg ewe ofan epee a EE Shao (90,59 oye desea eee ‘sel indo rors ead Nate ees Iealagu pds bo vette niyo sears teva how ae tk Yrs cansoge eek tebe cee npn sedating pcan es ton stning nts bart esd Sey le Se ees Paar a —C—Lrt—“—CO—ssS— a = _i +; ~—_ tt st ema ene cleo tee ree sch id spr le ian acct jase esas te a a =—srs—Ssee Sone dns creep ay degen nee rey Sow sen peg te ious fal spe sng pcs mip ee gle aoe ‘contort no tqone feline ce — —Er— Int eye er cong il (99) ng rns ‘ieton mii ips lends pce eae soutoronbencdetaiansarsingsine don eee 6 Fer cols Mu (205 191) apd egos dneeso ss ‘ine wo qe a aon eanag the mses fat: ok fe ‘Sect remy sep weg nice ie once ‘stdoteen oft poechngecn nna ears desing Imespuce dere de aherone mires peste Fm an apse psy cecum nance tome een ‘oc hoger n cee ope ok ime hte na ag pp Inpatient eae ben fe » aa SN ‘he aioe andere 7 sca ho mgmt ees er ty lowing lane cnsitense ot out and hepsi core “Gaui List and his colleagues (2013) used before-and-after compar- ater agrees mee arate anet reser no lly opengl (dimen) pee Sota Sie angen wate eS amaeterees secre inne ene cr en Se ai aeaeeeanel Scrnoenitanemrsres Znoamnee tment rmmverc atisatttransessigmes poeer eer need eee ——— fence aetna acne tenes ee Sosa epee tg eer Secriecctamanecemratnaat fctendowa tay teenie eae pa ti re — tatiana beer ofa errr naietee toga reer gaia nat et Erie itary a ap erp rineatbai nese 9Chapa ‘he hoor of toil choice more generall—has no cub appeal at all even & peredlyetional highly informed mean voce doesnot ge what she ‘rants Tha res used fundamen loge problems fo the ppulie de by ealng ino guction how any sor of deta prces could ell ap gga penaly complex individ! prefeene inc coheren wil of the people” PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL IDEOLOGY ale lion thelr edn vot aed ee din specs of Dons "nomi thn of denon One ch vd stl pil mol of deal aeons ashe eg Incest converge onthe ell al pant oft els rons Th he Dov ati of ple natn cos wh elt co conde at, bese othe afin ie whichok cnet oe sin eine det” che es squig pltel enn “stow tnt nan ron vr (olsen oe pcg yr lt informatio or” (Donn 195728) Than'A lage pong oe chien vrs ic cone needa Sot {econ the ious toledn cen ew ey beet romero empnan (Downe 1957.98, _ Unborn forthe pala del of esto competion to work aol ort” vor donde pli omen Ingo Ia they ato nce cng ft pty se otha hy ned ‘oko thei ovn prefaces adh los of he compeag ee ‘ing “the lus ied in dctomTe wea ove pees ‘cla fen inl een fr aed nh pope den oe Ica haf tes dent eal Ln ws hy mene ‘hel chy of danny and he pl mel sae sng an ‘ne ling inden dates dan fhe le hey maybe hk han apne te ses pla ea eat ‘mela eke ening neces venta quoter songs cones Fr eal 69 6 of eas in th 58a thefedal prem wa png on “asap oe nly 20% 75% al ews endings fe on elas 199,391). "Wiie ety hd phy neque anno fsa ‘Aeon roby een edi mel egg "ste the or (Ges 193) Wold sod nl peg a ry | 1 i | | : t } “The ie Mendate bs donne elected eh wil ofthe majo or nt? We can suggest no Jenuble wa anes tha question. Teccamscendentous to hin that “walle and “sistance tothe poor” aod fie pois, and hae Americans careful opposed de Former We supporting the lee However, even shat dino i acepted. (lene sie Ramin fees appear in cases whee the sbseanie “Bencion becncenalgeative frames seven more enous. For example, (p diweseparte cxperiments conducted inthe d-197D, lost half of “Assicen said they woud noe llow” communist 0 give speech, while nly boot one-fourth td they would odd” hiw or he rom doing so {Schuman and Pree 1981, 277)-Ln the weeks lang up othe 191 Golf ‘We almost o-thindsofAmaicant were willing “use mary fore” but Fever han half were wig eo "engagein comb and fewer chan 302% were tiling > “go to war (Macler 1994, 30), raming mow abstract quanti tre choices Indien bat mama equivalent ways alo produces ppedicable—and vometies deamai—erences in ests Pri 1967: “rea and Kahseman 1981). “The pyehaogiel indeterminacy of preferences reveled by these “ia ing fee (Kahneman, Slovi, and Tresky 1982) and qustion-wording ‘rperient ells nto queton the mor andsmenal asprin of pop- ‘lor demorrai theory cizens have definite preferences o be elie ied and aggreguedtzough ome welpeded proceso elles choice (Borel 2003) n chi espee, modern cognitive psychology has sharpened td enforced concent abou the uty of pull opiaion red by xis tf demoeray frome Plat 0th panei rey researchers ofthe 19405 1nd 1950s. "The fist rigorous sins porte ofthe Areican ve by Berard ‘Bezelon and his clleagus at Colambia Univers, found that “he wort fallshoe” of dplaying the moriation knowledge, and rationality expected by “teaonal aormative theory” (Bescon, Lacan, and McPhee 1954 308, 306), "On the res of the campaign” the Colombia scholars found (Bescon, arasfld, and McPhee 1954, 308, 311, "tbere isa considerable mount of ‘on koow somes efetnggecine indelson, more of ten meaning on care” Vou consent misperclved where candidates ‘sood on the importa suc ofthe dy 2nd exaggerated the cent of public suppor for thee five candidates And voe choices wee “eae i> ‘ulnrble wo diec argumenation” and charsceied nore by Eth than by conviction and by wishful expectation acer dan eaeflprediclon of comequence”| 2chaperTar Sere yeas ac 4 lnk ay of The mean Ye, Ang ‘Canpl and is colleagues tthe Unie of Michigan decd he seven inpoecent of pail though ina large proportion of he lsc Te acnovledgd tha many pope now hexstenceof Fw any of he jr ues of poly mach eho the competing psd candids ight ads chan (Carl eal 96,38 168, 170) Sls in eecion tomes they conladed wee gays ro eons fom longstanding parian lps by lately ensphinited vores ‘ihe gp ofits or elo Philip Comer’ (1968 esa on “The Naure of ce Sens in Mase abl” provided an even more devatting and fuel port of he polite hilngofordary zens Employing the growing of aa colle by she Michigan Survey Reach Cente, Conver concided tha may cso ot ive marigl bl enone a re Formed he bs frien ola ononey nog ls rsa tod fe” (Conese 196,245) Cone erence was of dhe Lnds Fe etn repondenst answer opted question about oll pres and canis fr evidence that hey anderned and pontine cnplyed he slog concep athe cox of elite poise dioane He found ha bout 3 of eee dey cies eslgae with ance quali “nesidelogues he vas may of oes (and an even ge rope of nonouzsemedea think sbove pres andandiatin sens yp Jct he “tre ofthe tne or in wae ta come no std of pli siteance whatever” (Conese 1966 217-280 Campbell 19. ctap. 10)" Second, Cmmene seed che dees oF ngnisntion of ple et se 8 eed by sical eomasons erento rated folic guetons Cold responds ge contend Hert or consenty ‘onsravereponte? Hefeundony ods orange 23) among dome pay views (geting employment aid edu, and fede! hosing), sirlay modes oon ong feign ply views 9 Keeani Pb ben cede nen 205 eon {0 Wesco of een arch eo tne ‘wetowi dupe 6 wean ps pepe cay ep Tp othnsaiaeUnagat nic care tel hee Mu 2 The Ble Mandate afi cnoidal nd Fre ctntn errr wr the domino rp ‘2c ih pry pce cg 7) epee th ctjeting oon wr mh hg pe ‘Spell ais ponding aed etc ger sae Sameer tes een pring ‘retort lypodess ater sneng pled once ws ge ey pone we on he mo ede eudihe perm” “Cone wa cgi dt “cnn sing pi tar even opel ce iene eyo ply ser of Tannen een Crt eee crepe (Sri er ey be anng pray phe sow prong ‘Fete cmc one pons eng» owed Hole gli ap ori epee oat chad ghee own eral pel bee teeeodng cnet els pay? "Ahn eng Come id fenay hich assed the ayo te ss ping ec te Cree (Doel "he ey fi cent yen te ane pol pons io csan unseen coded eye in ben 156und 1960 Ses apne tee tren ed nro nay moran Te cae a Somening open my of rons ray Gen oe Semertey edn ged frm heart 50 dwn Ahn St mgping ane wr creme nl oe tee (Gone 164 34020" nace spans 1 Sones unguided arent ct dhe lntlergune rygecns (ihe 175) Meroe pea anges ‘caeconatirtos eboney gin ese Frodeig erode f ee coe esi ‘che ar 98) a fo jaar Ce oor fap ‘Set eenuny fol ci webs ec oe ieeetiaed pepe egpern crineesoic ne usa wr Homey me wing bere pai pon ed on rpms “cntlaw “ted eon tes god dal oer Forel Knell IB) led rc np ly cron cone anne 92- Tope ma Nil Bacon Se flay pon amon eb ‘Mermed queef eget ens 35 meer eon gale Mp ” CC CCC CCC CC CC CC CC CCChapt To denlnton were mh mot sable, with corclans rom one uve 0 ‘hens exeeding 70, Conver (196,241 nord tha pret ae more ‘ental whine pitta of che mas pb thane he pal ieyendathat he paris desgoda puis” Cove sayfa ey sbsatal debe about his methodology and inerpretions. Perhaps no singe rgoment he advanced was fly per tue Bat cren mower agreed with condone pla" ‘em of onlay cles bore ie roeablace w the el embod {Edin the atk sheory of democracy As Kinder and Kalmoe (nm 3) sunatoedcarenescholulyundewnding, “Gewie sel id feron—an bing capstonal commence to an esol point of ‘ewe out erate Re ber and ea concrete ae fad in {nrc nares oly in thigh ceo folie cy coined tothe compare Sw whose Ser and woul egeed i poitcl Ii For mont odour crn ieslogy a bee—a yprducc fore Sse puean and rouploale Thus Kinder and Kale (nm 12) etd, “Anse are mich more el in thee ith ary than heyacin cc dean wh delogy” Resch in ter countries has gecelly produced slic pos of demcrteciens Thidecogesllsceenarfendnien moxehy arsanhip than by policy portos (Inger and Klingman 1976). et eight ems se sometimes meaning prima aerate aes forthe pli pars fo. nues th theprcethemscles hae agit she vous (an and Shami 1989), oe in ance, te pesumed hae oF ‘elope pais Conver nd Pee (1986, chap. 4 ound eat mest totes did no andetnd pola Te” and “igh” When ens doa {ead he ems hey may lb unertnocnfsed abot whee he ies on the cg inersion (Beran Stokes 1974 323-337) etapa aa, his prion lyn and ine pee at fen ‘ay nlgnd In 1968 survey in ly fen, 5% of hoe who ‘dems with the nig wing Monarch arty na ewig oly Post sions Barnes 171.170} Tee younger eds tend support fconfnon ea seman ofan oleae piosened plea (orn arta older ‘de sophieted hola ana) we noe ha earl ceeds Geoapiain irkuammabooyin pepeatnapel tomate ‘Bisiuedldgen dishonor ene eater Thepacle Sn che msec te onthe Sp a eae ee - Te Bladoe Mandare ve epee ted up smi ndings. For example Elzabeth Zech ce (2006, #62) fund Swkng sysemate deers... boh within and 0s the counties” in the concepion of el and ih offre by ee priate college stadens in Menlo and Argent, while Ande! Blais (per {onal cotuncacon) found halfof German wees unable plas the party faled “Di Linke" the eon leigh wele™ “hither Hak por of publi opinion bas provoked a good del of reteae among pola scents, and a vay of conerted atempes fever or eae the ndings ofthe cic Combi and Michigen sad {Inthe 1970 for eample, some scholars hired to fave discovered Th Changing verze Ver. auch more v-oened ad desloge consent specimen than the elie sede ad preyed (Ne, Veta, nd eeu 1976), Unfornacy further rainy reveled at most hap rc change cul be arrbuted 9 change in che quetone ot were Fringed ether chan to morlevsed oll hing When 19700 crs ereaked theo queso chee raponses played lie more consi- tec ot sophistcron than they hain che 1950s (Bishop, Olden and “uch 197841978 Bronk 1978; Sellen ea 1979), ‘Other scholar have argued tha overarching elope onvcons ae nnecesty beets ties can drive meaning pole preference fom ‘omewhaenarowe ‘cor eis” such qual opportuni, ite oven ‘mee, ot eadonal moray (Feldman 1988: Goren 200). Cie all fess (orantiathie)co these vale do tend o be womcwhat move sable Shan thee pce poly preferences Howevet hey ars god da et Uerthan he has "cor vals would cent imply being sifcantlycak ced by pare idenecaron and even by shorten ote ineions (Gore 2105; MeCann 997. Snes the 19805 the Ametcn pola ptm has sen sural ie crease in pata polarization, wth Denocrceleesbeeomingmorclely tnd consent Heraland Republican ees more cel and eonsiendly 12 Sennen pena clan od ae ming od isa ego yen he pollen cl epee) Savin eit) fun Comer (e180 a ar ade goon rh pe. si a Sad heat sol emcee hn ona cheno ‘Sempron comnts roche banc yon a pel engug ‘edeurlwemad mar depp ring. Ak tl med Set eo ens 35Chapter Tow onsrvative (Dole and Rosenthal 2007; Thera 2008; Mena and Ore seein 2012), As a sult rankand-fle purses have increasingly comme 29 ‘dope dcologal abel constens wich thei parsnip (Layman, Casey, ‘nd Horouit 2006, Hetherington 2009; Levendasky 200) Ha hi sled Converse’ problem? Als, vote? policy prefrnce ecm to lave become nly modesty more "eclegallycberene sa esl with cheaveragecor teaton between pats of policy preferences increasing from a pay 16 fn 1972 aig le palry 2018 2012 Normsch bar changed ™ ‘Sialad, when a rouposcholas hls entry later painstakingly ep. Heated many ofthe specific analyses peseted in The American Fer wing sary daca rom 2000 and 2004 they Fund no changer mos respects and only gail improvement inthe remainder (Lew Beck eal 2008), Veer, ie sec, ae war they ate and ace what deliic proponents of popular sovereignty mighe with them co be, The fol theory i oie usin onde seandingsel democrat potics "Ths, mos comerpozay schol of pbc opinion have come ape scletsinbroadouline, Converse port of democracies. Kinder and Kaloe (ns, 61-62) conde that Converse concsion of dese ‘alinnocenc sil sands. Edvetionl eansormation, pasty plszion, revautonacychangesis information dscniaton,fandmental aeeatons in gender and race reins impressive as these changes have Bea, equly impresieishow i isle fect they ave ha on how the American ele torte undentands poles™ POLITICAL YGNORANCE, HEURISTICS, AND “THE MIRACLE OF AGGREGATION” ‘Confivon regarding polis dclogy i js he tp of lange charg of poll nawrenest Michiel Dell Carin and See Kecter (1996) 0 ‘eyed sponse ro hundreds of pec feul quesson i US. opinion se ‘ey over the preceding 50 eats eo provide an authoritative sumwaty of 1 Ket Rao 45-6 ily clad i eg an cuneate inde ene mde eee ion pl io pole elena eprom he ep cere Ejpemn ert? 00 Fo 5 Caner heute (9 29206) we ‘ed continar fino la (The afte sented Prof eens pins init ron Seecrcoaptn hi ho mel Coes oop) 36 7 \ The sve Mandate het Americans Know about Poles and Why lt Matt. tv 1952, Dali CCupinianKeeter Fond, only 49 of Americans could names ese one Iyanch of goverment In 1972, only 22% knew something about Watergate 11985, only 59% know whether cei ow sates oremor was « Democrat tr Republican. In 1986, only 495 new which one nacion in se word ad wel melear weapons (Del Capa and Keer 1996, 7,81. 74,88 Dell Capin and Keetr (1996, 270) concluded fiom thee and score of simile Sadings dha “lange aumbes of American ctiens ae woe un- {daiforned and ha over evel oFnowledge re modes at bet” Rebure Tasha (2002 282) pu she same concaion rather mare cally obser Inga mos people “know jaw-doppingly ltl abou polis” Hee to, cis sriking hw lide sees eo have changed inthe decades since sry reach began shed spac igh onthe nataeofpuble ‘opinion Changes in he strte of he mss peda kaealloned people wich {mcammon ase fr public af to find an unprecedented quay and ‘acy of pla news; bur they have al llowed people wth more tpi fan eo shandon traditional newepaprt and elevision new or ound he ockspor pe cs or pornogephy producing an increas in the selene ‘of pola! infounsio levels but ao chung inthe average ee of pial infomacon (zum and Kerell 199; Pie 2007. Silane forma ed teation remains strong predicar of tdivdual’hnowladge abou ples snail nce Aman educaonal alam have produced ile ‘Sgpueaincreiein ovr evel of pola knowledge When Deli Carpi su Kecter (1996 17 compared responses scorsof cul questions asked repeatedly in opinion rey ove the par half cenaryeey Sound dt “the ‘pul level of pli knwedge ide dferenerody chan wae iy at go, Gin the ample eons 9 expect changing lee of knowledge ‘vet the pce iy yes, this Ending pre he song evidence forthe inatabyof pli knowledge and iorance” ls Somin (2013, 192) ‘onladed om a moce recent survey longi ines ha "widespesdpo- Iie ignorneeisaserioa problem for democracy sndqzesoned“whesher ‘he moder cleeorae even come clon to eating the eguements af dex cece” ‘Some ics ofthis prspecivehavesopposed that opinonsuveyssignf «ancy sndereimate peoples poiial knowledge by providing isuicient ‘eodaton for them to anawerguetons cones (Duce and Lupa 2008; Bullock ea 2013). Unfreunatlyisuficient mocvacon is endemic to mass plc, not an aricf opinion surveys; we donot dour that vores woul be Bete informed if hey were pide er poi as, but chat a”chagtrTon seems impact (an jadgingy the eles of hse toes, exer ex ete) her agine cael poll krowledge” recognising the ‘ces of plies gues but no this nares provier siren road to competence (Prot 2014) but dng phorographs to the alloc would ise Signican addtional poems of woe bis (Tedonow ea. 2005; Lavon «2010; Olvola and Todorov 2010; Lene and Lawson 2011) ‘Most attrpts to eden” the eestor ave saken 2 dierent ck, se nowledging shat ovr ae general inate and ninfoumed but deny ing ha the quality ofthe poll decisions sues mucha rele For ‘rample, femal corse have proposed versions of the spa model of ‘eeons in which he una postal ha ote ae fll informed soo ‘ned some. Unforanatly even “ealafozmat” vores in these models ‘ow agjet dea mote chan mos rel voters do, Fo esampleoneinBserial spac model of elcome with “eninformed” voters (MeKehvey and Onde ‘hook 1985, 1986) posted thar all voters naw dhe disubution of votes el points informed votes know che cand postions exact and un Infor vt know the level of informed” oppor fr candidate (om pal das) andthe eight ode ofthe canst postions fz whlch they then proced co infer the cada postions onthe basi of spatial thon. Ay, awe have ten ant yore donot know what pall ie” Sand igh? mean, mach lest knon wha informed vr ink. Ths, ew if ny of hese cheery asurptions ar ils holdin prc, ‘the cly 19905 spate ofbooks with sch easung es 5 Th Re soning Vite (Popkin. 1991), Resning and Ohoce(Soderan, Brody, sad “esac 1991, and Te Rational abl (Page and Shapiro 192) argc cha vorercoeld se information shorts” oe hewn tonal ele tonal choles even dough ty lacked dead knowledge abou candies snd poles These shorcus could take a vasey of foes, ncvding ewe From tuted individ or groups nrence denver politi or social seer oxpneralatins fen personal experience o fll wisdom, ‘Secllogit and polis seni have long recognized thc cine sometimes ake ‘cu from bere informed fend elves, neighbor, or ‘cowoskrs (Karz and Lazard 1955; Hackfeleand Sprague 1995; Marz 2006), The ster Cabin Tilia once ad such an ateangement.°Mrs. ili, ‘Alice, uve Cyprasto Me Tilin forhisbithy: forthe nex 12:months she ‘would thik about Cypras and he would have co. Me Til, fr Chl ‘as, ve Mr. Tis Iran. Nether of hem was wig eke ove think lngabout che SALT [dscnamens) ull” (Leonad 1982). The very humor ofthe stay pins eo one limitation ofthis defen of democracy whe 38 The av Mande Mend Mrs. Tallin were sicily wellnformed (and we hope, play compable)to make sucha division of labor easible and fice, mas cit ens dort ave Cyprus wacher In the hous and would aot know what 9 ake of advice shout Cyprasifthey hai "The Beate on "heen pla ene an od spell of the coresponding tran: in paychology. Psychologies have deotedex- Jautiveactention othe bisses in jadgment produced by elianceon speci, slenlabl hears For example he eae eoleson of ene eid by Daniel Kehaeman, Pal loi, and Amos Tey (1982) inelded epors on" belefin hela of all numbers" sbortcamingsin the ausibution pro ce “egoceticiaesin aay and aebacon” “he llsion of con- ‘ll and “otexconidence in easeseady judgmens” among othe opie tho tnluded a eis of ess on “cone procedures" nended 9 mi pete er ofthese aris base and shortcomings Poca sient by comparison have epi been mach more likely. view “hewisues" asa boon wo dmocracy. Wesaspect alongwith Jes Kake Tinlad Pal Quite (2000, 15) shat ha eau as eh to do with she fc ca "the notion of competent cizery snout ance. cusses forts co apand czen patcipaton and crite cen Or some of American demoacys sucess” ‘When sedens of poli heuristics ave defined the sks of chiens sof Send leas for covert performance benchmarks o be meaningful they ovetendedoprsenethon tasks in auch igh simple oem that lefehe ius of el pola infxeace ae abacted away (Lupiaand MeCuby ins 1998) More often, obseeved preferences and behvir ae deemed tatio al simply beers they ook sonable rsa oe inuencd by pasty ‘elevate conlderaons. ln ane of che tnt colo examples ofa pital “wloemationshorut? Sunmel Popkin argued hac Mescan-Amedca vr tsshad good reason ro be sspcos of Presiden Geld Ford when he made the mise, davis Teas pimary campaign appearance, of ying a doen ‘tamale without fac emoving ks comnuse wrapper. Accedng to Poplin (0991, 3), “Showing Fabry wich yore’ cules an obvious and esy tet of any ro elt the problems and sealer of the eho group and wo understand and cre bout them” An bios and ey to, ye. An ‘ecortebaiforinfeing Ford ens towaed Mele Amnecene? We oveno ies, Lacking any objective sandard for dinguishing elle poi cucs from uni ones, some scolas hve sinply asked whether winfoeed taens—using whatever “infomation shore are avlsble to then — ”Chapter Te manage to minic the preferences and chicer of bere informed peopl ‘Alas tual analysesf the impact of plies information an pliy pe. erences hare prodaced ample evidence of substance divergences beeen the preferences of eat uninformed and beter informed cians (Del (Carpi and Keccr 1996, hap. 6 Altus 1998). Sil, when diary peopl ar exposed to intensive poltial education and enteston on pe ‘fe poi issues, the fen chang their mind (Laskin, Fishkin, and Jowell | 2002; Saris 2003), acl anaes of voung bebavioe have ews found chat uninformed ens cast signfcandy dierent vores han those who were bewc in formed, For example, Bar (1996) etimaced thar atl vore choice Gl lout balay berween wha they would have ben foes had bean Fly Informed and wha they would have been fevryoa hd picked andres ‘by Sippngcoine" Ricard Lau snd Dad Reda (1997; 2006) alyzed | the same lecions wing er demnding ceion fo asessng “ore” ‘voiag (They took each voter’ partianip, policy potion, and erla- tions of andidate peeormance as given, setingasde he fara these, 200, ‘may besabjectoecorsand Biases) They found hacabout 70% ofvoes.08 | serge chose che candidat who bere matched ter own exposed pref ences, Lan and Redlause (2006, 88, 263) wondered, "Te 70 percent cores | enooght" Answeng that question rule a careful asesment of the ewene 29 hich “ieorer” yous sew cleeson outcomes Opeimizmsbost the com ecence of democtatc cere has on been bolced (atleast among, polical scientists) by appeals to what Converse (1990) dabed dhe “iale faggreguion"—an ea formalized by he Margit de Condorer mote thin 200 yeu ago and fvefally argued with amprsl evidence by Bexrin Page and Robert Shapiro (1992). Condoret demonstra thera thar several noe make independent judgments of «pec gull or ano ‘cane amajoity are ql ikl jg cored ven fever ing rorisonly modesty moze ikl han chance to each she corer cones lf Det ater i np ney anaes rll on sau sso [ebicais ksesnonstn opnsn tp of rice ae ‘rin ey rm bg el” ay ec oe peal cel esr einai Bar (950 pots ne ‘al den opi nee ell eign de peed pu ‘eleancfte nfeon gy 40 r \ "he Blin Mandate Applied > cleroral plies, Condower’s ogi ages thatthe electorates ‘ema be much wiser an any india ote "The cecil problem with vis machemascally elegant argument is tha doce noe work very wei practice.” Rea vor er ae gui nll to te mais independent Condovod’s loge requivez When thowsands ‘milion of vorers mibeonstrae the sme eran fe or te swayed by the Sine vid campaign a ao asount of aggregation wil poce the regaste (sc, nda voters “exon” wil no ancl oa inthe overall lecion Sncome pci when they are bued on consid Bows of lformavon| (Page and Shapzo 1992, chaps 5,9) IFanincumbene goterament censors or dors information eegaing foreign poley or national sets. the fevlkingroct in cen Judgments obviocy wl no be random." Less hoe een uninensinal roby plsclly new puveyersofinon- von my greatly dar clleevejadgent as when sisal agen- Cis orthe news media overstate or understate the strength ofthe eeonony in ‘heran-up tan election (Hecheringon 1996). Barl(1996) estimated how well he oer outcome of pesiensal lesions marched wa they woald hae been every vou had been “ily fnlbed” The rage dctepacy between the acti poplar vote and che ype "ily nfrmed™ oszome ofeach cation amounted ro thee prcentige points —more then enough wo sina dos cones Related analy ‘sof behavior n Sweden (Ovsacton 2007), Canada (Bee 2009), Denmark (Hansen 2008), and many other coun (Arnold 2012) have fun anlar cs ofnformacon on agree clation cuore. Ths the lack of polit knowdgenttens—not ony fornia vores, bu ls rena decorates the oles the fae, andthe pares they et. “Th paul ehory of wring ast “te proxi” as both the pinary de remnant of vote choie and he primary as of eandidate campaign 17 Fama air gunn npg gid ania he agen, rich paying oe sep te ee" me an ‘Sipe Ambani 96 edn nd Pender 998 TF Whe welmem madi ernest coed on ne den det dese eam soe ox Cd ne ‘sre niga pty pnd on ceo fond sre eres cane ‘Eucwdr stoneware ccna “nn three That "aro (oe) oe eros o ‘Gnade fam rd oan) snchap Paw sree. Over the couse ofthe 19605 and 1970s, hs theorel dee ‘opment was gall buc powerfully anlted into empirical analyses of ‘otng behaior. In the aukoretine American National Flexion Studi Conducted by the Univety of Michiga, quessions rpuding sues of | fable poly wer incesingl reco epost sped by patil sry. Serve espondents erent “pl” then teen and pacts oa cach ue imenon The protein of Sue wakes povided ample rv xr for ave stitial etn, oer choice pinto? called comparngrepondent on ostions on hae te eles wih che psn they tbe the con ecg ands or paren "Tecaoal anbiguynbeeain uaa of hisort asclete schoks of voto by she eal 1970 ihr Brody nd Beja age (1972 Page and Bly 1972) odie tee dnc erpencons ok hepa comelatonberveen se ponies andrue ches The, pol ointe vlan, enepond to he ctentonal iterpttion o oe vosng inthe fol theory of democracy pores roe ere the candids ole postnes compte hem otc own ply prec, td chon sande acon Tecan, pon aes pope th voters aerng thrown ne postns obi hem in conformity whee su ponion ofthe and or pate or Te hid ge am aes prospective You conning tees hase candida ot py they fora ite pons narod os ad peal at ‘strands ops we disinlae postos whee ot ‘Msn ech Tac ihe econd and tid ene, promi ‘coupe of he voter prec oe pec esate ox pay 04 nef a rence ‘Bred and Page (1972, 458 woe, "We need ome mea for xing the pret fr peso ad poet a fxg ‘cpa proces the nation of plc ings paca to he dercandingo the oleofrhecinen nadenncyan theo de ‘oe certaily tei ithe any proce which al con fie projection and pension wil bean endepende me pon which +0 brid oor undertandng” Brody an Paes clr wring wa lowed by some esurcefl arp ro rere he sl mig te ented (neta 1975; Mass ad Conse 1979 Poe ad Joe 197 Fain tnd Jackson 1983) Unfounary, hse temps monly ved ude ine the omen to which he onchsions dea fom such ule ee om fg tl appareny emeable ii sstnpcons. haps moe a : he Bie Manda sonal backtobnck aces by Maks a Convene (1979) ad by ageand Jones (1979) in he sun ise fhe American Poi See Re 7b epmatd comple rimlaneoss-eqacion model eltng parsnip, fone proiniy and axesmene of ands? peconaltesusg these (des fom Areccan Natal lection Studs surveys but ame very if {fen conlsions abu te bv of oingchvoe two eas oF gy ampoenearalyss ing ener sin queonrofhe same dra could ‘ome eo sch difeen condsions ie scemel cet thar che rel of such ‘cies st depen teat a ch onthe ana! hese precoo- ‘pons and awed tiie amtmpeone son he chic of wot nigh of thie sppatent imp, may colar of vung behvioe hare rece to sdenep the causal ambiguity plgng the laonsipbeowen [Be positon and vores by reverting simple single eqution models in bic ue posions can fee vote cles but not vce we. ef, they bare led onthe ssumpeions of the fle cheary of demecracy ether than empirical evidence to ese the problem rise by Brody ard Page” For example, Stephen Anolbchere Jonathan Roden, and James Sry (2008) cused esposes to doen of spec ave queniont in Amt <0 National lection Stade uve in use Bond (econmie"and “or ne pons, caring l fhe emaning aon inspec we response ar aeibuable to measurement enor” Thy imped Ie ston for vote who had none. or lpi dropped hem rom he analy Se Then hey inpesed2 model in which he observed claonshipbeeween ie postions and ote chokes (nes of parcanehip and ideology) was at abut ene eo ie voting with o allowance or ertsion oF group ene ees Usurprsngly they tepoed nding able policy peer cence" and “tong erence of isc voting” (Ansolbehee, Rodden nd Snyder 2008229) 19 Sone ashe ee coin pee of be den pet siorngel ang pops con om tons tel po lw em pp. tS sd Rope en nd ar 35D, ‘oneand Nor) hae dapper ecole reac Iictopsean doc matinge oben psn othe | iets pants ih opurerersirr dy poh e ‘beri (nsoingy) vorbis voy Wore ag, ‘Soles: peep ccs a ten ep wn peeps stkonplielchdunsl cohen att bry dictrosrhonarohy ee Saldcna har ows npn coo pop pecs ceo oi ‘hs gnaw ecpeone bck Lane nd Trey 1) pel inp a seca sone th Car (6 eran eu 4chapter Ts Subsequent wor by Gabriel Lene (2009; 2012) provided wbicnilad- Aion grounds for sep soardnginfcence af this or Lena wed ‘peated interviews with he same insu n show tac ereuasion play large ole—and pli arintd clarion etka ie tole—in ston ng for observed asociacon berweeh ue poitions and votes, That cat Aidt choles determine oe posions, ot vce es 1n the 2000 presidental campsig, for sample, candidate George W, ‘Bush advocated allowing india evens wo invest Social Secu funds inthe sock make. hereby aaputiga previously care pole propor tothe poll Limelight Much ofthe news eoreage and advetsng in the final month ofthe campaign Focused on the eandidatconerang sands onthe se: na rpical “heteground” media mathe, che wo cate, dates cogeter rn about 200 ads touching on Soe Scr prvasacon jus inthe fal sok before Hetion Day Johnston, Hagen, and Jameson 2004, 153-159). And, sure enough the tical elaonshipbeween oe. «les on Social Security pivaation and thle preferenees for Bush of Al Gor (holding constane pry dentin) mote han doabled over the coueof he campaign, “his exactly the vor of si we might expect if yotets wee sending ‘othe polica dba, weighing che competing candies policy plore sd formulating her vote inecins aceordingy However Lens mote de tae anal employing epeaed ineevow wth che une people demon. seared hari subsea inres in the ppusntelecorl Input of ews shout Soil Secuty paztion was mor: ens asoryde nt > hangs in vote intentions, but Bush and Gore supporters arin te efirted candidate's poston onthe ie ad thin adopting het own, ‘As Lens (2012, 59) put, "the inca in media and eampalghatecion to ‘his ied slo nothing ro make people whore postion was the sane a Bl mor ikl vote fo Bush han they aad wee ‘On se afer ae ranging fem spp fr public wots in 1976 and fens speadingin 1980 Earopean negation a Bitsn toner powec in the Nehelands in he wake ofthe Chernby] rector mtdown-—Lenes ales povided ubsancial evidence of soredien changes in i pst. ‘on but like or no evidence of swesdres changes in candidate or party prcfeencs As John Zaller (2012, 617) pai "Patsan veers take ue po shins they ar expected as partsns ro tae, bt do ot sinc ate about ham” Lene (2012, 235) characterized ches findings a “dbappoicng” for “ehalats who ste democracy as fundamencly about vores expreing thei vews on policy’ nig thatthe “imersed elon beeweea sue 7 Pie ttain Mandate pons andes cena vpn wih conden eda in tbe poli hey hoon ELECTIONS AND PUBLIC POLICY ‘Alot all ofthe shoal evidence we Bae considered thus fr egeding pul opinion and electoral behavior feces on dhe ates and wots of Fda ciens. Fortnael we ae not hinted to india evel al sof public opinion and voting behavior. We an alo attempt o acs direcly how clstions shape denocrave pl, Does sie vung compel both prs o aope policy postions ose to those ofthe median Yo 35 ‘hespail theory o eleeions impli? [As we have sen IS presidental elections inthe post-World Wee I exand expel the nds defers aeedby Batty Golda in 1964 and George MeGoveen in 1972—seamed 29 comport rather well with che prediction of che spat theoy. However more peti each on US. presen lions has sugested thi Goldwate and MeGores loses Ind les to do with chee ise postions then with ection eat economic ‘auton; ieclogi “exes” probaly coe them ast 2 ew percent 1s points ofthe pala ore (Bares and Zaller 2001; Caher and Zaller 2012). Moe generally the impae of candace policy ands on election xicome--a es over he range of pliy sands abesved in moder pes eal eleeions—seens to be quice mode Ax Zale (2012 616) pat “the penalty er excemis fel isnot ange” ‘The broad analysis of US. public policy in Robert Eskson, Michael MacKuen, and James Sessoms The Mat Pali (2002, 303-31) silly tndalns the failure of sue vrng re dssplineplicians ia he manne sogexe by he pai heryof lee one, Enon, MacKuen and Stinon ‘nested the kdeoogiel reno of pai avy in cach branch of Cones andthe White House ver more chan 40 years. They found that policy eu ‘comes shied substancaly when arian contol shied fom Deroere 0 Repsblcanso from Republicans to Democrat. The pub's policy mood” (akson, Macken, and Seinson 2002, 194-205) ao inuenced policy ‘egies of which pany wa conte, but tht effect was eal by om. patton Fr example, he esinated impact on White House policy ctiy of moving fom the most coneratie “pli mood” recorded in four de. ‘ads tothe most liberal “pelicy mood" was only about one-hin 35 lange 18 the estimated impact of replacing a rypiel Republican pesidene with ‘ypial Democrat The estimated fees of partisan conta on congresionel “s