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Muthoot Fin
Muthoot Fin
RETAIL RESEARCH
Muthoot Finance Ltd
Industry CMP Recommendation Add on Dips to band Sequential Targets Time Horizon
NBFCs Rs. 218 Buy at CMP and add on declines Rs. 196-204 Rs. 243 - Rs. 258 2-3 quarters
Muthoot Finance Ltd is India’s largest, niche gold finance company with an AUM of ~Rs250 bn in Dec 2015, with a robust
HDFCSec Scrip Code MUTFINEQNR 38% CAGR over FY09-15. Headquartered in Kochi (Kerala), the company is majority owned by the Muthoot family (75%
BSE Code 533398 stake as of March-2016).
NSE Code MUTHOOTFIN Investment Rationale
Bloomberg MUTH IN Gold loan NBFCs returning to stability post the storm
Regulatory clarity and strong retail franchise
CMP(as on 18 May, 16) Rs.218
Gold prices have largely remained steady for the last one year and are now on the way up
Equity Capital (Rs crs) 399 Muthoot Finance is expanding its presence in the western region through Muthoot Homefin- for financing affordable
Face Value (Rs.) 10.0 housing in the coming days.
RBI’s draft guidelines for on tap bank licences for NBFCs may open up a new opportunity for Muthoot Finance.
Eq Sh Outstandiing crs 39.9
Market Cap (Rs crs) 8698.2
Risks and Concerns
Collateral Risk
Book Value (Rs) 127.7 Credit & interest rate Risk
Avg. 52 Week Volumes 261715 Liquidity Risk
52 Week High Rs. 236.8 Outlook and view
52 Week Low Rs. 151.0 Over 2012 to 2015 the gold loan industry was dragged down by various regulatory pressures. With a more stable regulatory
environment, healthy RoE, expected improvement in RoA, low asset quality risk and a gradual pick-up in loan growth in the
medium term, we believe Muthoot’s valuations are quite attractive. Moreover, its dividend yield is also healthy at close to
Shareholding Pattern (March 2016) 2.5%. While recent growth rates have been sluggish, current valuations leave room for improvement if the rural economy
Promoters 74.64 and SME/trade community see better times and its growth rate breaks into higher trajectory. We think that investors could
buy the stock at the CMP and add on declines to Rs. 196-204 band (1.25x-1.3x FY18E Adj. BV) for sequential targets of Rs. 243
Institutions 20.86 and Rs. 258 (1.55x and 1.65x FY18E Adj. BV) over 2-3 quarters.
Non Institutions 4.50
Financial Summary
Total 100.00 Particulars (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
NII 23,019 22,074 22,678 25,000 28,307
Fundamental Research Analyst: Total income 23,214 22,183 23,303 25,682 28,989
Zececa Mehta PPP 12,957 11,542 12,247 13,516 15,495
zececa.mehta@hdfcsec.com PAT 7,801 6,706 7,263 8,030 8,996
EPS 21.0 16.9 18.3 20.2 22.7
Adj. BVPS 108.2 122.4 133.4 144.3 156.3
(Source: Company, HDFC Sec)
Muthoot has ~7mn customers with an average ticket size per loan of ~Rs. 36,000. While loans are typically disbursed with
tenure of 6-12 months, most of the loans are repaid within six months – implying average duration of close to six months for
the loans.
Investment Rationale
Gold loan NBFCs returning to stability post the storm
Post a stellar run during FY08-12, India’s gold finance NBFCs had undergone significant turmoil in the next three years—led
by the changing regulatory landscape and steep decline in international and domestic gold prices. While stricter norms led to
a slowdown in growth, steep decline in gold prices brought asset quality pressures; this forced most gold-financing players to
shrink their loan books over the period.
In our view, the industry has started to stabilize now and is poised to return to growth from here on in as:
The regulatory environment has stabilized with gold financing NBFCs following stricter regulatory norms than most
other asset financing NBFCs
Competitive intensity has rationalized with many smaller players exiting this segment and market shares starting to
consolidate with fewer and larger banks and non-banking finance companies
International gold prices have already stabilised and are now on the way up
Domestic economic revival is likely to boost demand for loans again, especially in the small and mid-sized towns and
rural centres
Distress in select pockets of the country (due to inadequate rainfall in the last two years) could also lead to higher
demand for gold loans
Asset quality concerns have stabilized as most of the pain is over and should abate over the medium term.
Regulatory benefits
Over the last couple of years, RBI has tightened the regulatory requirements (LTV (loan to value), valuation methods, branch
opening and cash disbursements), which has further strengthened the gold loan business model. Further, LTV cap of 75% for
banks, augurs well for the gold loan financing companies and creates a level playing field. Given its leadership position in
gold loans and the low cost advantage, Muthoot will be the largest beneficiary as and when there is revival in the broad
economy.
It now has its focus on diversified presence across India, South Region now constitutes 65% of the branch network.
Widespread branch network has enabled AUM diversification with South now contributing 56% of the total AUM (as on Dec
2015) as compared to 74% in March 2011. The company is concentrating on the Western region of India whose contribution
to gold loan portfolio is increased from 8% in March 2011 to 16% in Dec 2015.
Reducing competition
Low gold loan penetration, stabilizing/rising gold prices, exit/lower focus area from various small/new players has reduced
the competitive intensity. Further with level playing field vs. banks, regulatory concerns behind, coupled with launch of
newer products, we believe Muthoot being the market leader with large branch network is well placed to capture the huge
opportunity.
In the medium term, one of the key challenges for private sector players, especially gold financing NBFCs, could come from
public sector banks which have turned aggressive on collateralizing agricultural loans with gold as additional collateral and
also from the expected entry of small finance banks, which could erode market shares for non-banking finance companies.
Gold prices have largely remained steady for the last one year
Global gold prices fell ~41% from their peak of USD 1,791/oz during Oct 2012, while domestic gold prices fell ~30% lower
from the peak of Aug 2013 of Rs. 3110/gm to Rs. 2223.9/gm in July 2015. Deterioration in Muthoot’s asset quality in Q1FY14
was on the back of sharp decline in global gold prices, which declined from ~Rs. 2965/gm to Rs. 2,277/gm (~23.2%) within a
six-month period. However, Indian gold prices have remained broadly stable over the past year—hovering around an average
of Rs. 2,400-2,500/gm, leading to stabilization in asset quality. They have now risen to Rs.2900-3000/gm.
While prices fell sharply till mid 2015 and we believe should stabilize medium term, predicting a bottom for global gold prices
is a challenging task. Having said that, in Q3FY16, GNPA at 2.53% at an average quarterly gold price of Rs. 23,400, was lower
than GNPA in Q2FY16 of 2.55% when the average quarterly gold price was Rs. 23,488. A sharp fall in gold prices, especially in
a 3-6 month period, remains a key risk for the sector.
Notwithstanding the risk of a fall in gold prices, we take comfort in Muthoot’s strong asset quality over the last couple of
years despite the sharp fall in gold prices. Falling gold prices, we believe, are more a growth risk than an asset quality risk for
stronger players like Muthoot.
Muthoot’s NPAs shot up by 50bp in Q4FY13 to 2% owing to a sharp fall in gold prices. However, the NPAs since then have
broadly remained at the same levels and touched 2.53% in Q3FY16, down from 2.55% in Q2FY16. In our view, the regulatory
changes, which capped the LTVs at 75%, have played a crucial role in stabilizing the asset quality. Further, we expect
stabilizing gold prices and lower LTVs to aid in reducing stress over the medium term.
Muthoot Finance is expanding its presence in the western region through Muthoot Homefin- for affordable housing
finance in the coming days.
Muthoot Homefin India Ltd (MHIL) was started by the promoters a year back with 100% holding and a capital of Rs. 10.5
crore. But in March 2016, Muthoot Finance acquired 3.95 crore equity shares of MHIL (79% stake in MHIL) thus increasing
the total capital base to Rs. 50 crore. In the one year of operation of MHIL, its AUM came in at Rs. 25-30 crore. The
MHIL has done some business in Kerala where it got the license earlier, and has done about Rs. 25-30 crore of business in
Kerala. The company is tapping the potential customers who take gold loan from Muthoot and simultaneously can access to
home finance segment. The company has some records of credit history and credit payment available in Muthoot Finance
through the CBS system, which they can leverage in selling the housing finance loans.
Muthoot Finance has got a very good presence in Delhi and Mumbai with around 200 offices in and around Mumbai,
predominantly for the gold loan business. But MHIL being a relatively new venture, the company will first concentrate on
markets of Kerala and Maharashtra (in Mumbai the company has recently set up an office in Goregaon) and then gradually
would tap the other markets. The lead generation for the home finance business is happening through the offices of Muthoot
Finance, which has more than 4,200 branches and offices throughout India.
In FY16 AAF has also done exceedingly well. The company has grown its books by about 36 percent and its asset base is also
increased by 7 billion Sri Lankan rupees. AAF has introduced the gold loan scheme and also the micro finance portfolio in Sri
Lanka which is showing good traction there. In 9MFY16, AAF earned revenue of Rs. 45.03 crore (in FY15 it was Rs. 44.48
crore) and PAT of Rs. 5.54 crore (in FY15 it was Rs. 4.74 crore). Total Assets for 9MFY16 came in at Rs. 328.23 crore which in
FY15 was Rs. 250.74 crore.
RBI’s draft guidelines for on tap bank licenses may open up a new opportunity for Muthoot Finance.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on May 05, 2016 released draft guidelines for issuing on-tap universal bank licenses but
excluded large industrial houses from entering the sector. The proposed licensing policy is a change from the current stop-
start policy where RBI opens the window for bank licenses periodically but rarely. Existing NBFCs that are “controlled by
residents” and have a successful track record for at least 10 years are among those that can apply for on-tap licenses.
Although Muthoot Finance had applied in the round of banking licenses in 2014 (and did not succeed), it feels that it has a
case for applying for a Bank license, after the final guidelines are issued. A Bank license could allow Muthoot Finance to raise
low cost deposits (given its spread of branches and the reputation that it has built) and do other activities, although the
requirement of CRR, SLR, and priority sector lending, minimum paid-up capital for a bank of Rs.500 crore will have to be met.
Muthoot Finance is much bigger than Manappuram Finance on almost all accounts. Also the float available to public is less
than that of Manappuram.
Risks/Concerns
Collateral Risk
This risk arises from the decline in the value of the gold collateral due to fluctuation in gold prices. However, this risk is in part
mitigated by at least 25% margin retained on the value of jewellery for the purpose of calculation of the loan amount, i.e. the
company lends maximum of only 75% of the value of jewellery. Further, risk is reduced because the price of gold jewellery is
higher given that the production costs, design cost and the gemstones associated with making the item is not considered for
arriving at the value of jewellery for the calculation of the loan amount. Having said that, gold prices do have an impact on
the Gross NPA ratios of Muthoot Finance.
When gold prices are on up move, GNPA is low and vice versa as shown in the chart above. But the management is of the
view that the gold prices would going forward remain steady and would not be very volatile like in Q3FY13.
Further Muthoot will move to 150dpd NPA recognition norms from Q4FY16; this may however not lead to higher NPAs due
to better expected recovery.
Credit Risk
This risk denotes the possibility of loss due to the failure of any counterparty to abide by the terms and conditions of any
financial contract. This risk is mitigated by a rigorous loan approval and collateral appraisal process, strong NPA monitoring
and collection strategy. This risk is further diminished because the gold jewellery used as collateral for loans can be readily
liquidated.
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity management is to ensure sufficient cash flow to meet all financial commitments and to capitalise on opportunities
for business expansion. The nature of business is such that source of funds, primarily proceeds from issue of debentures and
bank loans has longer maturities than the loans and advances given resulting in low liquidity risk
Compared to its peer Manappuram Finance, Muthoot is not present in Microfinance, CV finance and is a late entrant in
Housing finance.
Financials
Q3FY16 Result Review
Muthoot Finance reported QoQ flat loan book in Q3FY16. However, the company was able to arrest consistent five quarters
of NIM compression likely supported by lower bank base rates. Stable NIM at 9.04% coupled with improving operating
leverage will support earnings until visibility on loan growth improves. Net interest income was up 4.6% YoY to Rs. 563.2
crore. PAT was up 20.9% YoY (up 7% q-o-q) due to good control on the operating expenses. RoA at 14%, Gold AUM was up by
13.3% YoY to Rs. 24940.9 crore, Gross NPA came in at 2.53% (as against 2.55% in Q2FY16), Net NPA came in at 2.19%, Gold
holdings at 145 tonnes, 56% AUM in south, 22% in north, 16% in West.
Conclusion
Over 2012-2015 the gold loan industry has been dragged down by various regulatory pressures. With a more stable
regulatory environment, healthy RoE, expected improvement in RoA, low asset quality risk and a gradual pick-up in loan
growth in the medium term, we believe Muthoot’s valuations are quite attractive. Moreover, its dividend yields are also
healthy at close to 2.5%. While recent growth rates have been sluggish, current valuations leave room for improvement if the
rural economy and SME/trade community see better times and its growth rate breaks into higher trajectory. Muthoot
Finance has the highest rating among gold loan companies for short term paper. Its capital adequacy of 23.37% (Dec 2015) is
well above the regulatory minimum of 15%. We think that investors could buy the stock at the CMP and add on declines to
Rs. 196-204 band (1.25x-1.3x FY18E Adj. BV) for sequential targets of Rs. 243 and Rs. 258 (1.55x and 1.65x FY18E Adj. BV)
over 2-3 quarters.
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Yield (%) 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.7
(Source: Company, HDFCSec)
One Year Price Chart
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