5 things to know about Gold

Yohay Elam
About
● Former retail trader and
computer programmer
● Forex Crunch founded in 2008
● Analyst for FXStreet since 2018
● Focus on fundamental analysis
● Leading FXStreet’s Premium
Product
Grab the opportunity!
All that shines
 Table of contents
1 Safe haven?

2 Gold and Yields

3 Russia and China

4 Gold and Silver

5 Best times to trade Gold

1. Safe-haven
Gold as a safe haven
Time-proof
● Seen as an ancient form of
money
● Tied to currencies in the
20th century
Gold as a safe haven
The theory
● Has limited capacity, cannot
be printed
● Serves as a hedge against
inflation
Gold as a safe haven
Keep the faith
● Works as a safe-haven if
people believe it
● Make the trend your friend
Gold as a safe haven
Middle East conflict
● Gold jumped when Hamas
attacked Israel
● Advanced when fears of
wider conflict emerged
Gold as a safe haven
Middle East conflict
● Gold fell once Hezbollah’s
Nasrallah seemed reluctant
to join.
● Is probably done retreating.
2. Gold and yields
Gold and yields
Better (and useful)
● If gold is safe, it competes
with safety
● US debt is the world’s safest
Gold and yields
How it works
● 10-year Treasuries = global
benchmark
● Investors ignore debt-ceiling
debacles
Gold and yields
It needs to be big
● Gold reacts to strong
movements in yields
● A gradual move has little
effect XAU/USD.
Gold and yields
Go contrarian?
● When gold rises with yields
= gold is strong
● When gold falls with yields =
gold is weak
3. Russia’s Gold
Gold and Russia
Previous war
● RCB took advantage of
falling price in 2012
● Then came 2014
Gold and Russia
Previous war
● Accumulation accelerated in
2014
● Part of fortress economy
Gold and Russia
Previous war
● Covid pushed prices higher.
● In 2022 Russia has some
$67 billion (more in RUB)
Gold and Russia
Current war
● Russia’s central bank assets
seized
● Could try selling some gold
● Probably a minor factor
Gold and Russia
Diversification
● Chinese yuan shines
● Trade with India prized
● Gold accumulation in play,
but not a big factor.
4. Gold and other
commodities
Gold and friends
Silver
● When the gold-silver ratio
hits extreme highs, it is time
to buy silver.
Gold and friends
Oil
● Gold and oil are correlated
only around geopolitics
Gold and friends
Gold stocks
● Gold mining stocks are
correlated
● But the focus shifts to
green-related metals such
as cobalt, palladium
5. Gold timing
Gold timing – seasons
India
● Indian wedding season
dates may matter
● Prices rise before these
dates, buy the rumor, sell the
fact
Gold timing – seasons
When the leaves fall
● Tends to fall in the autumn
● With stocks and oil
Gold timing – seasons
Days
● U-shaped week
● Finds the lows on Tuesdays
and Wednesdays
Gold timing – seasons
Hours
● Big moves happen around
economic events
● Gold is similar to currencies
in that sense
● A release can trigger action,
regardless of data
Gold timing – seasons
Openings
● 00:00 GMT (Tokyo)
● 7:00 GMT (London)
● 12:00 GMT (New York)
Q&A
Grab the opportunity!
To the
moon!