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ISE 450 Simulation of Logistics Systems

Data Collection and Analysis; by Dr. YM Tang

Question 1:
In Hong Kong, 2 percent of all licensed drivers will be involved in at least one car accident in any given year.
Use Poisson distribution to calculate the probability that among 150 licensed drivers randomly chosen in Hong
Kong exactly five of them will be involved in at least one accident in any given year.

Solution:

Expected number of drivers will be involved in at least 1 accident among 150 random sample = λ = 150 x 2% =
3.

Using Poisson distribution,

e −λ λx
P( x) = , X = 5 and λ = 3
x!
e −3 3 5
∴ P(5) = = 0.1008
5!

Question 2:
In a football match between Manchester United and Arsenal, Wayne Rooney scored a goal to give Man Utd
One-nil lead with 30 minutes remaining in the game. By statistics, Man Utd scores 2.6 goals per 90 minutes
which is a Poisson distribution. Arsenal scores 2.9 goals per 90 minutes which is a Poisson distribution as well.
(a) Calculate the probability that Man Utd win this game by maintaining the score, 1:0 with 30 minutes
remaining in the game.
(b) State what assumptions needed to be hold in part a.
(c) Calculate the probability that Arsenal can score two goals and win the game by 2:1 with 30 minutes
remaining in the game?

Solution:
a) For Man Utd to win the game by maintaining the score, 1:0 with 30 minutes remaining in the game, which
means the probability that both Arsenal and Man Utd do not have any score.
 lm = Scoring rate for Man Utd in 30 minutes = number of score per 30 minutes
la = Scoring rate for Arsenal in 30 minutes = number of score per 30 minutes

2.6 2.6
lm = × 30 = = 0.866
90 3
2.6
− 2.6 0
3
e ( )
e −l l x
2 .6
−
P ( 0) = = 3 = e 3 = 0.42
x! 0!

The probability that Man Utd does not have any score is 0.42
2.9 2.9
la = × 30 = = 0.966
90 3
2.9
−
2.9 0 3
−l e ) (
e l x 2 .9
−
P ( 0) = = 3 = e 3 = 0.38
x! 0!
The probability that Arsenal does not have any score is 0.38

∴ the probability that both Arsenal and Man Utd do not have any score
= P(0) × P(0) = 0.1596

b) Assumptions
It is assumed that the two events are independent to each other. Besides, it is assumed that the probability
for both teams to gain the score is not affected by the time past. That is, the players do not feel tired which
may affect the performance of the team.

c) For Arsenal to score two goals and win the game by 2:1, with 30 minutes remaining in the game, we should
calculate the probability for Arsenal to have two score and Man Utd does not have any score in the
remaining 30 minutes.
For Arsenal,
2.9 2.9
λa = × 30 = = 0.97 score in 30 minutes
90 3
e −λ λ x e −0.97 (0.97) 2
P ( 2) = = = 0.18
x! 2!

For Man Utd, P(0) = 0.42 [calculated in (a)]

So, the probability that Arsenal can score two goals and win the game by 2:1 with 30 minutes remaining in the
game = P(2) x P(0) = 0.18 x 0.42 = 0.0756.
Question 3:
You got 60 observations data of customer calls in a service centre. Six types of problem (A to F) have been
identified. A chi-square goodness-of-fit test will be used to see if the assumption of a uniform distribution is
reasonable. Assume a level of significance (α) is 0.05

Types A B C D E F
Frequency 10 12 7 8 12 11

Critical values when the level of significance (α) is 0.05

Degrees-of-freedom 3 4 5 6
Critical values 7.82 9.49 11.07 12.59

Solution:

Chi-square goodness-of-fit test

H 0 : A uniform distribution is suitable / reasonable to describe the data
H 1 : A uniform distribution is not suitable / reasonable to describe the data
1
Expectation using uniform distribution: (10 + 12 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 11) = 10
6

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Observation Observed Expected Difference Square χ2
Freq. Freq. (1) – (2) Difference (3)2 (4)/(2)
A 10 10 0 0 0
B 12 10 2 4 0.4
C 7 10 -3 9 0.9
D 8 10 -2 4 0.4
E 12 10 2 4 0.4
F 11 10 1 1 0.1
Total 60 60 2.2

α = 0.05, reject H 0 if c 2 > c 02.05,5 = 11.07

Now, χ2 =2.2 < 11.07
∴Do not reject H 0
i.e. A uniform distribution is suitable to describe the data