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Lecture 1: Macroeconomic

Aggregates

Trevor S. Gallen

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

I How is Lakisha’s? her income? mental health? employment?

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

I How is Lakisha’s? her income? mental health? employment?

.
I ..

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

I How is Lakisha’s? her income? mental health? employment?

.
I ..

I How is Emily’s? her income? mental health? employment?

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

I How is Lakisha’s? her income? mental health? employment?

.
I ..

I How is Emily’s? her income? mental health? employment?

I Want to encode this information concisely.

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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing

I This is a highly multidimensional object:

I How is Brendan’s happiness? his income? mental health?


employment?

I How is Lakisha’s? her income? mental health? employment?

.
I ..

I How is Emily’s? her income? mental health? employment?

I Want to encode this information concisely.

I (With some loss!)

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

I Inflation

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

I Inflation: how much money do you have to have in 2015 to be


just as happy as in 1985?

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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

I Inflation: how much money do you have to have in 2015 to be


just as happy as in 1985?1

1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

I Inflation: how much money do you have to have in 2015 to be


just as happy as in 1985?1

I Before we start, it’s natural to ask...are they any good?

1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Motivation-II

I The macroeconomic aggregates are how collapse information

I GDP: how is the “local” economy doing?

I GNP: how well are nationals in a country doing?

I Unemployment: is the labor market functioning well?

I Inflation: how much money do you have to have in 2015 to be


just as happy as in 1985?1

I Before we start, it’s natural to ask...are they any good?

I Maybe you put stock in happiness surveys (N.B.: A priori, this


is a terrible idea from my perspective!)

1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Stevenson & Wolfers, 2008

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

I Government production

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

I Government production

I Durable goods

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

I Government production

I Durable goods

I How do we solve it?

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

I Government production

I Durable goods

I How do we solve it?

I Value government inputs at cost.

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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow

I Dollar amount of “final” goods and services produced per


unit of time

I Why dollars? Aren’t they meaningless?

I What’s the problem with counting up dollar value of


everything produced?

I Government production

I Durable goods

I How do we solve it?

I Value government inputs at cost.

I Impute rental value of housing


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Are Prices Value?
I We think that prices aren’t too far from how much something
is valued in relative terms for an individual.
I Example: price of an apple is $1 and price of drugs is $1.
I Say you’re buying 100 of each in the real world.
I You can’t claim you value 1 apple for 2 drugs because you
have opportunity to buy 2 less drugs and get two apples.
(great deal!)
I Same idea: price pez is $0.25 and price iphone is $100. I can’t
claim the true value of pez to me is $10,000,000 per pez and
the value of an iPhone is $1: if that were the case I could
choose not to buy the iPhone ($1 less happy) and buy 400
pez with the money ($4,000,000,000 happier).
I If all goods were consumed in positive quantities by everyone
and infinitely divisible, prices reflect relative value for everyone
I Doesn’t give value across people but may give information
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Example: Calculating Nominal GDP
I Take a set of N goods
N
X
NomGDPt = Pi,t Qi,t
i=1

Year Pa,t Pb,t Qa,t Qb,t GDPa,t GDPb,t GDPt


2010 $1 $1 1 1 $1 $1 $2
2011 $1 $2 1 0.4 $1 $0.8 $1.8
2012 $2 $1 0.8 1 $1.6 $1 $2.6
2013 $2 $2 1 1 $2 $2 $4
2014 $2 $2 0.5 0.5 $1 $1 $2
Eq. · · · · Pa,t Qa,t Pb,t Qb,t GDPa,t
+GDPb,t
I Why is this troubling?
I Does 2010 → 2012 make sense?
I Does 2010 → 2013 make sense?
I Does 2010 → 2014 make sense?
I How do we fix it?
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Example: Calculating GDP in Constant
Dollars-I
We’ll use 2010 prices (denoted by a bar):
N
X
RealGDPt = P̄i Qi,t
i=1

Year Pa,t Pb,t Qa,t Qb,t GDPa,t GDPb,t GDPt


2010 $1 $1 1 1 $1 $1 $2
2011 · · 1 0.4 $1 $0.4 $1.4
2012 · · 0.8 1 $0.8 $1 $1.8
2013 · · 1 1 $1 $1 $2
2014 · · 0.5 0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $1
Eq. · · · · Pa,2010 Qa,t Pb,2010 Qb,t GDPa,t
+GDPb,t
I Does 2010 → 2012 make sense now?
I Does 2010 → 2013 make sense now?
I Does 2010 → 2014 make sense now?
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Example: Calculating GDP in Constant
Dollars-II
Or use 2014 prices:

Year Pa,t Pb,t Qa,t Qb,t GDPa,t GDPb,t GDPt


2010 · · 1 1 $2 $2 $4
2011 · · 1 0.4 $2 $0.8 $2.4
2012 · · 0.8 1 $1.6 $2 $3.6
2013 · · 1 1 $2 $2 $4
2014 $2 $2 0.5 0.5 $1 $1 $2
Eq. · · · · Pa,2014 Qa,t Pb,2014 Qb,t GDPa,t
+GDPb,t

I Does 2010 → 2012 make sense now?


I Does 2010 → 2013 make sense now?
I Does 2010 → 2014 make sense now?

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1
2. Find the new GDP component for each good: Qa,t P̄a + Qb,t P̄b
and Qa,t+1 P̄a + Qb,t+1 P̄b

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1
2. Find the new GDP component for each good: Qa,t P̄a + Qb,t P̄b
and Qa,t+1 P̄a + Qb,t+1 P̄b
3. Find the percentage difference between the two:
Qa,t+1 P̄a +Qb,t+1 P̄b
Qa,t P̄a +Qb,t P̄b

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1
2. Find the new GDP component for each good: Qa,t P̄a + Qb,t P̄b
and Qa,t+1 P̄a + Qb,t+1 P̄b
3. Find the percentage difference between the two:
Qa,t+1 P̄a +Qb,t+1 P̄b
Qa,t P̄a +Qb,t P̄b
4. This gives the ratio of chain-weighted GDP, the growth, but
doesn’t give us a level

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1
2. Find the new GDP component for each good: Qa,t P̄a + Qb,t P̄b
and Qa,t+1 P̄a + Qb,t+1 P̄b
3. Find the percentage difference between the two:
Qa,t+1 P̄a +Qb,t+1 P̄b
Qa,t P̄a +Qb,t P̄b
4. This gives the ratio of chain-weighted GDP, the growth, but
doesn’t give us a level
5. Choose an arbitrary level

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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?

I Choice of base year can be incredibly important

I We can improve on this with chain-weighted GDP

1. Get average price between two years for each good:


P +P P +P
P̄a = a,t 2 a,t+1 , P̄b = b,t 2 b,t+1
2. Find the new GDP component for each good: Qa,t P̄a + Qb,t P̄b
and Qa,t+1 P̄a + Qb,t+1 P̄b
3. Find the percentage difference between the two:
Qa,t+1 P̄a +Qb,t+1 P̄b
Qa,t P̄a +Qb,t P̄b
4. This gives the ratio of chain-weighted GDP, the growth, but
doesn’t give us a level
5. Choose an arbitrary level
I Note: this is slightly simpler than what we actually do. See
online notes for details.
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Example: Chain-Weighted GDP

GDPt
Year Pa,t Pb,t Qa,t Qb,t GDPt−1 GDPt
2010 $1 $1 1 1 · 100
2011 $1 $2 1 0.4 0.64 64
2012 $2 $1 0.8 1 1.29 82.6
2013 $2 $2 1 1 1.13 93.3
2014 $2 $2 0.5 0.5 0.5 46

I We now have the relative change in GDP between each period.


I Chain them together and choose an arbitrary starting point

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Measuring GDP

I GDP is measured three different ways

I First, recall that every dollar spent is a dollar “earned”

I All goods purchased by households (“expenditure”)

I All goods produced by firms (“value added”)

I All income earned by entities (“income”)

I All three should add up to the same thing

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Measuring GDP: Expenditure

Y = C + I + G + X − Im

I Consumption-purchases for consumption by HH’s


I Nondurable goods
I Durable goods
I Investment-purchases of new capital goods by businesses (not
financial instruments!)
I Government expenditure and gross investment-government
purchases and “investment”
I Does include expenditures of all levels of government!
I Does not include all government spending!
I Net Exports-Value of what we send out minus what we bring
in
I Note that things fall apart, depreciate: net domestic product,
NDP = GDP−depreciation.
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Measuring GDP: Income Approach

I Rather than measuring final good consumption, could


measure income

I For every dollar paid in for the final good, one is paid out

I In the end, all payments go to compensation of employees,


proprietors, capital, or taxes: add it all up by recipient

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Measuring GDP: Value-Added Approach

I Income approach measured income by group

I We could instead measure net income by sector/firm

I In the end, firm gets the difference between what you sold it
for and the raw goods you purchased (the value added)

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GDP, GDI, Value-Added

Table: Corn and Cornbread’s Contribution to GDP


Step Input Gross Net
Cost Revenue Revenue
Farmer→Miller $0 $0.10 $0.10
Miller→Baker $0.10 $1 $0.90
Baker→Supermarket $1 $10 $9
Supermarket→ Household $10 $11 $1

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Two ways

| + I + G{z+ X − M} = Y = |wL + π +
C {z rK + T}
Outflows Inflows

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

I Only what we measure (black market)

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

I Only what we measure (black market)

I No measure of leisure time or household production

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

I Only what we measure (black market)

I No measure of leisure time or household production

I No measure of nonmonetary production like environmental


goods

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

I Only what we measure (black market)

I No measure of leisure time or household production

I No measure of nonmonetary production like environmental


goods
I Nevertheless, it seems to be quite important and correlates
with things we think are correlated with welfare (health,
mental health, happiness, mortality)

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Failures of GDP

I What are some failures of GDP?

I No measures of distribution

I Only what we measure (black market)

I No measure of leisure time or household production

I No measure of nonmonetary production like environmental


goods
I Nevertheless, it seems to be quite important and correlates
with things we think are correlated with welfare (health,
mental health, happiness, mortality)

I Recall our previous discussion of causality!

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Aside on Exponential Growth
I A lot of the time (not just in this class), we’ll be taking
natural logs

I Reason is that difference in logs is approximately percent


difference, has useful properties.

I Claim: log(y ) − log(x) ≈ y −x


x when y near x.

I To see why, take Taylor expansion of log(y ) around y = x:


∂ log(y )
log(y ) ≈ log(y )|y =x + (y − x)
∂y y =x
1
log(y ) ≈ log(x) + (y − x)
y y =x
y −x
log(y ) − log(x) ≈
x

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Aside on Exponential Growth-II

I Let’s say something is continuously exponentially growing:

Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)

Then:

Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
log(Yt ) = log(Ȳ exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + log(exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable

I So logging an exponential object with growth rate


(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.

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Aside on Exponential Growth-II

I Let’s say something is continuously exponentially growing:

Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)

Then:

Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
log(Yt ) = log(Ȳ exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + log(exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable

I So logging an exponential object with growth rate


(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.

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Aside on Exponential Growth-III
I Let’s say something is discretely exponentially growing:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
Then:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)(1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)2
= Y0 (1 + γ)t
log(Yt ) = log(Y0 (1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + log((1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + t log((1 + γ))
≈ log(Y0 ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
I So logging an exponential object with growth rate
(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.
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Aside on Exponential Growth-III
I Let’s say something is discretely exponentially growing:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
Then:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)(1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)2
= Y0 (1 + γ)t
log(Yt ) = log(Y0 (1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + log((1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + t log((1 + γ))
≈ log(Y0 ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
I So logging an exponential object with growth rate
(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.
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U.S. GDP over Time: Historical Yearly Series

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U.S. GDP over Time: NIPA Quarterly

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U.S. GDP over Time: Growth Rate
(Quarterly)

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U.S. GDP over Time: Growth Rate
(Quarterly)

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Components of U.S. GDP over Time

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Components of U.S. GDP over Time

Can you figure out which color is what category?


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Components of U.S. GDP over Time: Legend

I Red is consumption: it’s the biggest and is quite smooth

I Gray-blue is investment, and is quite volatile for its size

I Light blue is government consumption and investment...note


the trend

I Light green is imports, they weren’t produced in U.S. but were


consumed so we take them out

I Dark green is exports, they were produced in U.S. but weren’t


consumed, so we keep them in

I Dark gray is a statistical error

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Components of U.S. GDP over Time: Legend

I Red is consumption: it’s the biggest and is quite smooth

I Gray-blue is investment, and is quite volatile for its size

I Light blue is government consumption and investment...note


the trend (?)

I Light green is imports, they weren’t produced in U.S. but were


consumed so we take them out

I Dark green is exports, they were produced in U.S. but weren’t


consumed, so we keep them in

I Dark gray is a statistical error

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Inflation

I Inflation is measured by a basket of goods

I It’s the flipside of the nominal vs. real GDP discussion above

I We have a few baskets to care about:

I Basket of goods and services produced domestically: GDP


Deflator

I Basket of goods and services consumed by households:


Consumer Price Index

I Basket of goods consumed by “producers” (no services,


primarily raw materials and intermediate goods): Producer
Price Index

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

I Why?

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

I Why?

I Substitution bias

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

I Why?

I Substitution bias

I Quality improvements

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

I Why?

I Substitution bias

I Quality improvements

I Gallen’s Theorem: Stated inflation must be too high, because


Social Security is indexed to it.

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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated

I It is frequently asserted by non-economists that inflation is


misstated

I We typically think that measured inflation is too high [sic]

I Why?

I Substitution bias

I Quality improvements

I Gallen’s Theorem: Stated inflation must be too high, because


Social Security is indexed to it.

I Proof by contradiction: I could find no photos of old people


rioting in the streets
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Misstated Inflation

I The BLS makes its price data available to researchers, rougher


data to public

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Misstated Inflation

I The BLS makes its price data available to researchers, rougher


data to public

I Others make their own price indicies from scanner data

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Misstated Inflation

I The BLS makes its price data available to researchers, rougher


data to public

I Others make their own price indicies from scanner data

I Still others get their data from online

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Misstated Inflation

I The BLS makes its price data available to researchers, rougher


data to public

I Others make their own price indicies from scanner data

I Still others get their data from online

I General result: in U.S. it’s all fairly similar, some say it


overstates, some it understates

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Misstated Inflation

I The BLS makes its price data available to researchers, rougher


data to public

I Others make their own price indicies from scanner data

I Still others get their data from online

I General result: in U.S. it’s all fairly similar, some say it


overstates, some it understates

I In some instances, inflation is misstated by about 15% per


year (??)

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Misstated Inflation

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Misstated Inflation

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Misstated Inflation

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Misstated Inflation

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Unemployment
I U-1: persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of
the civilian labor force
I U-2: job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as
a percent of the civilian labor force
I U-3: total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force
I U-4: total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
I U-5: total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all
other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian
labor force plus all marginally attached workers
I U-6: total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers,
plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a
percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached
workers

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Unemployment Rates

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