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Lecture 1 - Macroeconomic Aggregates
Lecture 1 - Macroeconomic Aggregates
Aggregates
Trevor S. Gallen
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
.
I ..
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
.
I ..
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
.
I ..
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Motivation-I
I We want to know how everyone is doing
.
I ..
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Motivation-II
I GDP
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Motivation-II
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Motivation-II
I GNP
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Motivation-II
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Motivation-II
I Unemployment
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Motivation-II
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Motivation-II
I Inflation
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Motivation-II
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Motivation-II
1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Motivation-II
1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Motivation-II
1
Yes, this description is correct to a first-order approximation!
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Stevenson & Wolfers, 2008
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
I Government production
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
I Government production
I Durable goods
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
I Government production
I Durable goods
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
I Government production
I Durable goods
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Nominal and Real GDP-I
I GDP is a flow
I Government production
I Durable goods
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
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Chain-Weighted GDP
I What’s the problem with using “constant dollars” GDP?
GDPt
Year Pa,t Pb,t Qa,t Qb,t GDPt−1 GDPt
2010 $1 $1 1 1 · 100
2011 $1 $2 1 0.4 0.64 64
2012 $2 $1 0.8 1 1.29 82.6
2013 $2 $2 1 1 1.13 93.3
2014 $2 $2 0.5 0.5 0.5 46
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Measuring GDP
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Measuring GDP: Expenditure
Y = C + I + G + X − Im
I For every dollar paid in for the final good, one is paid out
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Measuring GDP: Value-Added Approach
I In the end, firm gets the difference between what you sold it
for and the raw goods you purchased (the value added)
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GDP, GDI, Value-Added
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Two ways
| + I + G{z+ X − M} = Y = |wL + π +
C {z rK + T}
Outflows Inflows
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Failures of GDP
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Failures of GDP
I No measures of distribution
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Aside on Exponential Growth
I A lot of the time (not just in this class), we’ll be taking
natural logs
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Aside on Exponential Growth-II
Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
Then:
Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
log(Yt ) = log(Ȳ exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + log(exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
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Aside on Exponential Growth-II
Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
Then:
Yt = Ȳ exp(γt)
log(Yt ) = log(Ȳ exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + log(exp(γt))
= log(Ȳ ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
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Aside on Exponential Growth-III
I Let’s say something is discretely exponentially growing:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
Then:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)(1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)2
= Y0 (1 + γ)t
log(Yt ) = log(Y0 (1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + log((1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + t log((1 + γ))
≈ log(Y0 ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
I So logging an exponential object with growth rate
(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.
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Aside on Exponential Growth-III
I Let’s say something is discretely exponentially growing:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
Then:
Yt = Yt−1 (1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)(1 + γ)
= Yt−2 (1 + γ)2
= Y0 (1 + γ)t
log(Yt ) = log(Y0 (1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + log((1 + γ)t )
= log(Y0 ) + t log((1 + γ))
≈ log(Y0 ) + γ · |{z}
t
| {z } |{z}
intercept slope variable
I So logging an exponential object with growth rate
(“frequency” γ) turns it into a linear function with slope γ.
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U.S. GDP over Time: Historical Yearly Series
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U.S. GDP over Time: NIPA Quarterly
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U.S. GDP over Time: Growth Rate
(Quarterly)
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U.S. GDP over Time: Growth Rate
(Quarterly)
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Components of U.S. GDP over Time
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Components of U.S. GDP over Time
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Components of U.S. GDP over Time: Legend
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Inflation
I It’s the flipside of the nominal vs. real GDP discussion above
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
I Why?
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
I Why?
I Substitution bias
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
I Why?
I Substitution bias
I Quality improvements
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
I Why?
I Substitution bias
I Quality improvements
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Misstated Inflation
I It is generally accepted by economists that inflation is
misstated
I Why?
I Substitution bias
I Quality improvements
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Misstated Inflation
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Unemployment
I U-1: persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of
the civilian labor force
I U-2: job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as
a percent of the civilian labor force
I U-3: total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force
I U-4: total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
I U-5: total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all
other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian
labor force plus all marginally attached workers
I U-6: total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers,
plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a
percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached
workers
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Unemployment Rates
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