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UNIVERSITY OF ELDORET

EMPS 311; EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

WEEK ONE

INTRODUCTION TO EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

MEANING OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

As we all know, our formal education is an organized one. We must have trained teachers to teach.
Buildings and many facilities have to be put up in order to have educational institutions function
effectively. The people we teach in schools, teacher training colleges and universities have to meet
the needs of the society. It is these people that later works as doctors, lawyers, teachers and
agricultural officers.
All the above ideas come down to one very important thing, i.e. that our educational system must
be arranged at every stage in such a way that it meets the needs of both the individual and the
nation.
This process of intelligently trying to organize education so as to respond to the needs of its
recipients is what can be termed educational planning. In this unit we are going to study
educational planning in details.
What educational planning is?

In order to understand what educational planning means, it is necessary to understand what is

meant by planning and what a plan is.
Adesina (1990) defines planning as a way of protecting our intentions, that is, a method of deciding
what we want to accomplish. Ejiogu (1990) holds that to plan, means to project, forecast, design
or make or chart our course.
From these views, it can be summarized that planning refers to the act of deciding in advance
what is to be done, how and when to do it, where and who is to do it in order to achieve the goals
or objectives of the system. For example, when arrangements are made as to how many students
are to be in a class, how many classes will be needed to accommodate all the available children
seeking admission into our school system, we say we have planned the educational system.
A plan is a detailed scheme, a framework, programme or method worked out before hand for the
purpose of achieving a set objective.
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In line with our definition of planning and a plan , educational planning can therefore be defined
as the process of setting out in advance, strategies, policies, procedures, programmes and
standardsthrough which an educational objective (or set of objectives) can be achieved or the
application of rational and systematic analysis to the process of educational development with
the aim of making educational system more efficient and effective in responding to the needs
and goals of students and society at large.
To plan, means to project, forecast, design or make or chart out a course. A plan is a detailed
scheme, programme or method worked out before hand for the purpose of achieving a set
objective. There are three basic elements in a plan, viz: it deals with the future, involves action and
identifies who is to implement the future action.
The process of setting out in advance this plan is what is called planning. Planning refers to the act
of deciding in advance what is to be done, how and when to do it, where and who is to do it in
order to achieve the goals or objectives of the system. Planning bridges the gap between where we
are and where we want to be.
Educational planning is the application of a rational and systematic analysis to the process of
educational development with the aim of making education more effective and efficient in
responding to the need and the goals of the students and the society. It can also be defined as the
process of setting out in advance, strategies, policies, procedures, programmes and standards
through which an educational objective (or set of objectives) can be achieved.
In effect, educational planning deals with the future of our educational system in relation to the
past and present trends. As a result, it provides the basis for future decisions and actions on issue
related to education.
Educational planning is a continuous process. Therefore, it does not end when the plan is
completed on paper and approved by the relevant authorities such as the Ministry of Education. It
is also concerned with the implementation of the plan, the progress made, and problems
encountered in the process.
Key Elements in Educational planning
For the explanation of educational planning to be concise, a number of basic elements must be
present in that explanation. These are that:
a) Educational planning is a detailed and systematic process: it just does not happen by
chance but must be planned in a systematic manner, i.e have a starting point and the direction
to take. For example, in 1964, Kenya had her first educational commission (The Ominde
Commision). The commission pointed out the need to restructure educational system to
increase the stock of skilled manpower. The objective of the commission included:
a. Education for national development;
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b. Education for national unity;

c. Education for individual development and self-fulfilment;
d. Promote international consciousness
e. Respect for and development of cultural heritage;
f. Social equality.

Other commissions that followed included:

● In 1971 – The Ndegwa Commission;

● In 1972 – ILO Report on informal sector;
● In 1976 – Gachathi Report which recommended introduction of
agriculture in schools;
● In 1981 – Mackey Report which recommended the establishment of a
second university in Kenya;
● In 1983 – Wanjiki Report on unemployment;
● In 1988 – Kamunge Report;

In 1999 – The KoechRepor

b) Rational: human beings are rational. That is, they can think about educational problems and try
to interpret them with the aim of getting a solution.

c). It sets out in advance. It is a forecast of what duties, assignments and tasks (Operations) are
to take pace in the future.
d) It must identify strategies, policies, procedures, programmes and standards: all these are
necessary in order to chart the course of action that is required.
e). It is goal-oriented: it is directed at achieving a set educational objective.
f). planning must take into consideration the available resources in that system.
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g). Planning an ongoing process/ continuing activity. It is cyclical in nature. It doesn’t stop at

EVALUATION PLANNING

FEEDBACK GOALS

OBJECTIVE
IMPLEMENTATION
S
any time.

What educational planning is not?

Coombs (1970) noted that educational planning is not a miracle drug for treating sick educational
systems. The assumption that once you have an educational plan, then all the problems of
educational system are solved is not true. There are unforeseen problems that interfere with the
system, e.g. the rising cost of education.

Planning is not a standard formula which should be imposed on all situations, e.g. an educational
plan that works in the US may not automatically work in Kenya because of the differences between
the two nations economically, socially, politically

Educational planning is not an attempt or conspiracy to usurp the powers of educational

administrators and /or teachers. Planners rarely want to take powers from them. Instead they only
provide a guide to educational system.
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OBJECTIVES OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

1.Educational Planning Enhances Educational Growth and Development: One of the re-
known economists Todaro as at 1985 said notably that every nation strives after development,
and that it is one of the objectives that most people take for granted. Therefore, to Todaro
(1985), development is not only an economic phenomenon but also educational, industrial,
infrastructural and so on. This is because it is more than material and financial side of people’s
lives. Development is therefore a multidimensional phenomenon which involves the
reorganization and reorientation of the total economic and social systems. In addition,
development has to do with radical changes and reduction in inequality in all ramifications.
However, from the economic perspective, economic growth is the steady process by which
the productive capacity of a given economy increases over time with the aim of bringing about
rising levels of national income. in the developing economies, Todaro (1985) affirmed that the
planners, economists and even the politicians are usually concerned with rapid economic
growth. You can discover that development is broader and larger than growth due to its
focus of reorganization and re-orientation of both the economic and social systems. But
growth is concerned majorly with numerical increase in national income of a given nation. If the
above explanations should be applied to education, both growth and development is
inevitable and every countries of the world, Kenya inclusive, must strive to achieve it. there
should be improvement in infrastructural facilities, improved funding of the educationsector
as agitated by different experts in the education sector and lots more. On the whole, educational
planning should target at educational growth and educational development.

2. Production of Needed Skilled Manpower:

The economy of a given nation, is made up of different sectors such as health, education,
sports, banking, manufacturing, transportation, and tourism and so on. These sectors will
be managed by qualified and well trained manpower, which have undergone training for a
specified length of years. It is the duty of the tertiary institutions (Universities, Polytechnics,
, Teachers Colleges and so on) to produce this manpower that will invariably be injected
into the economy. the required length of training of the skilled manpower vary from one
discipline to another. For instance, for manpower in the areas of Arts, Social Sciences and
Education, it takes four years. While those in the medicine, dentistry and some other medical
disciplines are trained for six years. It is however important that the manpower be trained and
regularly injected into the economy because of the need to ensure that there is production
of proper ratio of these manpower to cater for the Kenyan population and also to take
care of workers that reach the retiring age in each of the years.
3. Enhance Internal and External Efficiency in the Education System:
Efficiency is the relationship between inputs (resources) that is used up by a system and the outputs
(or objectives) produced by such system. A system can be said to be efficient if it can bring
forth maximum output with the given limited quantity of input. the efficiency of the
educational system or its sub-system lies in its ability in converting those scarce resource
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inputs employed in teaching and learning to production of useful outputs with longer term
benefits. Summarily, efficiency has to do with relationship between resource inputs such as
money, time, efforts, etc. and expected results such as production of teachers, engineers,
nurses, architects, secretaries, accountants, etc. Internal efficiency is the relationship between
the resource inputs within a given system (education or health) and the outputs
(graduates).Whereas, external efficiency is the relationship between the inputs from the
education sector (e.g. Accountants, architects, agriculturists, sportsmen, women, etc.) and the
outputs of the whole economy. Giving the conducive environment, necessary working tools and
autonomy, the inputs from the education sector will yield greater outputs of the national
economy. In short, if the inputted resources invariably yield maximum outputs, there is
efficiency in the system. But if the inputted resources does not yield maximum outputs, the
system is said not to be efficient.
4. Educational Planning Ensures Taking of Rational Decisions:
Decisions are said to be rational if it will yield favorable outcome. Among the rational decisions
that can be taken are: (i) employment of required educated manpower within the economy
as at when due (ii) construction of classrooms to accommodate increasing student enrolment
(iii) production of needed textbooks for students of first, second and third levels of education
(iv) construction of roads and other needed infrastructures. Decisions that are not rational
include: (i) irrational retrenchment of workers (ii) unwitting destruction of houses and school
buildings (iii) irrational spending of money .
5. Ensuring Efficient and Effective Allocation of Human, Material, Financial, Time and
Other Resources:
t there are different types of resources used in the process of production of educated
manpower in the education sector, among which are human, materials, financial, time,
infrastructures and so on. These resources are important in the success of any education
enterprise. The resources are scarce and not readily available for use. Therefore, there should
be efficient and effective allocation of these resources to the required and pressing points of need
at one point or the other.
6. Enhance the Socio, Economic, Political Growth and Development of Given Countries:
Educational planning aims at improving the social status and situation of individuals and
the society. Educational planning also targets at improving the economic growth and
development in all ramifications, such that there will be improvement in the per capita
income of individuals and overall improvement in the income of the country as a whole.
Political growth and development of countries will also be enhanced, if there is educational
planning. Political growth and development is in the areas of organization of credible and
worth-while elections free of rigging and malpractices at whatever level. So, there will not be
rigging or different ills that are known to characterize bad elections. Also, political growth
and development will be enhanced when there is successful transition in governance from non-
opposition to opposition party and vice-versa in a given country.
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FEATURES OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

The following are the features of educational planning:
1. Plan must be based on Defined and Stated Objectives:
Statement of objectives is a strong pre-requisite to the success of any education enterprise or
Endeavour. For example, an objective might be production of 100 engineers at the end of an
academic year by Kenyan universities. Another one might be providing access to 1,000,000
secondary school entrants who will be inputs into the universities, polytechnics and colleges of
education at the end of each school academic session. However, there is the need to ensure that
educational plan must be based on well-defined and stated objectives which will prevent
derailment of purpose.
The objectives of the educational plans too should be well stated, so that it can be realized.
2. Plan must be Flexible to allow Development to Take Place:
Educational plans must be flexible enough, to give room for changes in terms of additions,
subtractions and even modifications. If you remember very well that as students in the primary
and secondary schools in the 1960s, 1970s, and even 1980s, there was nothing known and called
ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). But in the 21st century, the household
name is ICT, which has made the whole world to become a global village. The advent of ICT is
new in our educational system, and you should know that for us as a nation not to be left behind
the developments round the world, we have to accommodate the emerging changes and adapt them
to our situation. Any educational plan must give room for flexibility in order to allow for
development to take place.
3. Educational Plan Must be Timely and Reasonable:
As much as there are different decades denoted by one thing or the other as usually done by United
Nations, a country’s educational plan needs to fall in line with such declared decades. For
example, there were decades of Sustainable Development, Education for All (EFA); Health for All
(HFA); Water for All (WFA); Environment and Global Warming (EGW). These are timely
targets and programmes declared by the United Nations. The expectation is that all countries of
the world will work towards the realization of such stated targets. Kenyan educational plan must
be such that will fit into these United Nations decade declarations which is timely, reasonable and
human development focused.
4. Educational Plan must be based on Available Facts and Premises and Not on Ordinary
Opinion or Rule of Thumb:
At this juncture, the place of conduct of census every ten years cannot be over emphasized. If it
is conducted, there are available facts and figures that will serve as guide to educational planners
and policy makers. The availability of up-to-date statistics goes a long way at helping a nation
to put up statistics backed up plan, and not educational plan that is based on rule of thumb or
ordinary guess. So, in order to have an acceptable plan devoid of suspicion or guess, there should
be adequate statistics to back up any plan that is being worked out by the government. In fact,
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statistically backed up plans will not give room for wastages or over shooting of figures rather,
there will be adequate and exact plan preparation for the beneficiaries of such plans.
5. Educational Plan must be communicated in Clear Language of Instruction:
Educational plan must be communicated in clear language so that the intent of such plan will be
made clear to the beneficiaries without any suspicion from anybody.
6. Educational Plan must be Attainable and Feasible:
The purpose of conducting census exercises is to create a data bank from which needed statistics
about a country s development targets can be generated. Once the data are readily available, the
educational plan can be determined to be for specified number of people, and therefore, will not
be outrageous or non-attainable. Furthermore, as a result of the available statistics, it will be easy
for such plans to be feasibly carried out without recourse to rule of thumb.
7. Educational Plan must be Simple in All Dimensions:
Educational Plan must be simple in all dimensions in terms of its contents such as the introduction,
body and conclusion and even the objectives. The simplicity is essential because it might be
another person that will execute such written educational plan. If, however, the originally written
plan is complex to the extent that it is not easily understood; its implementation might not be
thorough as it should be.
8. Educational Plan must be Economical:
All plans whether educational, health, economic, infrastructural must not be costly when it comes
to its implementation. Resources are scarce, implementation of educational plan must not be
expensive such that it will gulp so much money during its implementation. There must not be
room for extravagant spending.
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ECONOMIC RESOURCES AND PLANNING

The issue of scarcity of resources is important in planning. In planning, we ask five key questions:

1. What is to be done? (goals and objectives)

2. Where is it to be done? (space and location)
3. When will it be done? (time dimension)
4. Who will do it? Who will provide resources and funds?
5. How will it be done? (options or alternatives)

Planning therefore is a form of decision-making. A plan is a recommended future course of action.

It is a guide to achieving the set-out goals. To plan is to choose or make decision. Choosing implies
you have several alternatives. The choices we make are based on:

1. Availability of sufficient funds;

2. Availability of qualified manpower;
3. Availability of alternatives.
Thus, planning is an intelligent preparation for future-oriented activity. It gives meaning to
action.

THE IMPORTANCE OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

The need for educational planning entails the following:
1.The complex nature of education, the activities of the administrators within the system, and
the highly diffuse nature of the goals of education calls for proper planning. Within the intensified
complication of modern technological society, the need for social and economic planning arose.
Pressures from population explosion, manpower needs, ecology, decreasing national resources and
haphazard application of scientific development, the need to advance improvement as rapidly and
cheaply as possible to benefit the individual and the nation, place demands on educational
institutions for solution, hence the need for educational planning.
2. Resources to be used in education sector are limited, thus the need to determine in advance
a programme of action for the attainment of the goal within a given time.
3. Helps to direct and co-ordinate the actions of employees in order to achieve maximum
effectiveness, efficiency and productivity.
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4. Planning is necessary for administrative decisions in education, for it aims at putting into
action what educators deem to achieve.
5. Planning enables a nation to make its choices clear in terms of the aim and objectives.
6. Educational plans are designed to avoid imbalances and enormous wastages shortage of
teachers. Since the goals and objectives of education are all embracing impacting upon social,
economic and political well beings of the society, much is expected from educational planning.
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WEEK TWO
DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IN KENYA
The background of educational planning
Educational planning is backdated to ancient times. Here are some of the examples of early
educational planning in linking a society’s educational system to its goals. Spartans for instance,
2,500 years ago, planned their education to fit their well-defined military needs, social and
economic objectives. Plato during his reign in Athens, planned education that would suit the
political and leadership needs. In China during the Han Dynasties and Peru of the Incas planned
their education to fit their particular public purposes. Planning has been modified over time so as
to fit in changing goals and expectations of the society (Coombs, 1970). These historical examples
of educational planning cited above however differed in extent, objectives and complexity. Some
were applicable to entire nations, others to individual institutions; some undoubtedly were far more
effective than others; some were fragmented, others involved a continuous process over a long
period; some were in a highly strict setting, others in a more democratic scene. They all had
something to teach, but did not have all the features that could be depicted in a modern educational
planning. For instance, due to existence of more educational institutions following increased
enrolment, planners have had to estimate how many students there would be, how many
classrooms, teachers, desks and books would be needed to serve them adequately, the curriculum
needs and methods of instruction as well as the appropriate examination system, how much money
all this would require, where the money would come from, and how and when it would be spent.
These various projections led to budgetary proposals for future academic calendars and eventually
ended in a chain of decisions and actions. This is educational planning that needed efforts of
competent planners. As educational institutions and systems grew larger and multifaceted, and as
the budgetary proposals became more official, planning processes also had to acquire formality so
as to provide for the stability and feasibility of established educational policies which would lead
to further improvement in education. Therefore, the main focus of planning was not only based on
the technicalities and logistics of education, but on the needs of the students and society, as is
currently evident in the goals and aims of an education system.
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Educational planning in Kenya

The kind of educational planning that was done in Kenya prior to independence had these four key
features:
(a) It was short-term, except when new programs had to be incorporated so that facilities had to be
expanded in which case the planning had to be projected further. (b) It was fragmented in that
various parts of the education system were planned independently of one another.
(c) It did not integrate the evolving needs and trends of the society.
(d) It was not dynamic to changing educational forms.
But since independence up to date, planning has been done with incorporation of various education
review commissions such as the Ominde Commission in (1964), Gachathi Commission (1976),
Mackay Commission (1981) and the later Koech Commission. The government also launched the
Kenya Education Sector Support Program (KESSP) in 2005 which advocated for a shift from
project planning of education to program planning and implementation. The plan describes how
education provision across all sectors and nationwide would be planned, financed, managed,
implemented and evaluated over the five years (KESSP 2005). The Ministry of Education, Science
and Technology’s strategic plan for 2005 to 2010 is among other economic strategies put in place
by the government so as to help in implementing the education policies put under plan.
NB;READ ON KENYA DEVELOPMENT PLANS,SESSIOAL PAPERS AND
COMMISSIONS.

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS IN KENYA

Development planning is the application of the planning tool to stimulate and guide the
development process. In Kenya, the term development planning has been used to describe the
conscious government efforts to influence, direct and in some cases control changes in the
principal economic variables with the aim of achieving pre-determined set of development
objectives. The attainment of political independence in Kenya brought ambitions, hopes and
aspirations to the people. To achieve this a proper strategy of development was required. The
Kenyan experience with both the centralized planning system and the district focus for rural
development brings to mind the challenges of decentralizing development administration under a
rigid political regime.
At the encouragement and advice of the former colonial authority and the donor community, the
Kenya government adopted a centralized planning system whereby planning for development was
done at the top and decisions passed downwards. Emphasis was placed on central or top-down
planning, the development process being guided by the production of five-year development plans.
A Ministry of Economic Planning and National Development was set UP for purposes of
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coordinating planning. Since then, this ministry has been responsible for the supervision, direction
and control of economic policy and development planning.
Purpose of National development plan includes;
i. The majority of people were poor, uneducated, living in poor housing conditions and
surviving mainly on subsistence agriculture. The newly independent nation was therefore
faced with a major challenge. It had to come up with proper strategies to improve the
quality of life of the people
ii. Avoid resources wastage and ensure maximization of the return as a way of control.
iii. The need for continuous reciprocal flow of information on plan implementation so that
variations of actual events from the targeted can be quickly identified and analyzed.
iv. The information was important for evaluation of new projects & programmes. The statistics
division in the ministry of planning was charged with responsibility of collecting and
analyzing all the data.
v. In order to effectively and promptly report on implementation of planned projects
coordination committees were established in the ministries, provinces, districts and local
levels.
vi. Overcome challenges experienced in implementing the previous National Development
Plans.
vii. Participation in decision-making process at district level.
viii. ‘Mobilizing domestic resources for equitable development.
ix. Adoption of an integrated approach to development programmes-this involves among other
things setting up a monitoring and evaluation system
x. Effective management for sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction

Development Plans in Kenya since Independence (1966-2008)

1. The first National Development Plan (NDP) - 1966 to 1970-aimed to raise the standard of
living of Kenyans (NDP 1965/6 1969/70) and established plan implementation machinery
at national, provincial and district levels.
2. The second NDP (1970-1974)-aimed to achieve economic independence with special
emphasis on rural development. An evaluation review system was initiated to overcome
challenges experienced in implementing the previous National Development Plans.
3. The 4th NDP-1979-1983 theme was ‘alleviation of poverty’ aimed to achieve a more
efficient utilization of resources and enhance ownership of development process. It
emphasized on increased participation in decision-making process at district level.
4. During the 5th NDP (1984-1988) whose theme was ‘mobilizing domestic resources for
equitable development.’ a project evaluation handbook was published to assist in
improving the efficiency of project implementation. The DDCs were required to meet four
times in a year in order to review the progress made.
5. The 6th NDP 1989-1993 theme was ‘participation for progress’ which adopted an
integrated approach to development programmes this involved among other things setting
up a monitoring and evaluation system by the Ministry of Planning and National
Development. The plan acknowledges that there was no effective monitoring and
evaluation system that would provide the necessary' information indicating the extent on
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how the development programmes meets the set objectives and the issue needed an urgent
treatment.
6. The 7th NDP (1994-1996) whose theme was ‘resource mobilization for sustainable
development’ recognized that the country lacked a method for monitoring the
implementation of the programmes and projects and in the few cases with M&E existed it
was uncoordinated and hence did not easily facilitate analysis and respond to real terms
which was a setback on information provision. And that previous efforts to set M&E
system has failed to take off (NDP 1994-1996).
7. The 8th NDP- 1997-2001 whose theme was ’rapid industrialization for sustained
developing recognizes that despite the efforts to operationalize the M&F. in the country it
did not receive sufficient attention.
8. The theme for 9th NDP 2002-2008 was •effective management for sustainable economic
growth and poverty reduction* emphasized on strengthening the management of develop^
process and participatory methodologies in programmes under projects implementation
Dc\|, previous initiatives on M&F. management there were major weaknesses (NDP 2002-
2U mainly due to lack of an institution to coordinate an effective M&F system.
9. After the 2002 general elections a new government was sworn in and in a bid to fast track,
economic growth came up with an Economic Recovery Strategy Paper for wealth
employment creation (HRS) which replaced the NDP 2002-2008. The ERS was based on
poverty reduction strategy paper. In Kenya for a long period of time, M&E has been done
in ad hoc manner (ERS. 2003-2007 without a coordinated system and mostly it was due to
donor demands).
Problems Encountered In Achievement of NDP;
(a) There was no effective monitoring and evaluation system that would provide the necessary'
information indicating the extent on how the development programmes meets the set
objectives.
(b) There were weaknesses in institutions coordination and did not easily facilitate analysis
and respond to real terms which was a setback on information provision.
(c) Lack of approaches to development programmes in the country
Methods used to overcome problems
a) Development Committees were set up at provincial and district levels.
b) A project preparation and evaluation unit was also set up to ensure projects were prepared
in great details and evaluate benefits and also to develop criteria and techniques for project
preparation und evaluation
c) A monitoring and evaluation review system was initiated to overcome challenges
experienced in implementing the previous National Development Plans.
d) The planning function was decentralized to district for some projects and from the
ministry of planning to planning units in the operations ministries (DDC’s).
e) Adopted an integrated approach to development programmes that involved among other
things setting up a monitoring and evaluation system in the ministry of planning and all
other ministries. There was set up on institutional framework and strengthen the use of
M&F. as a management tool enable timely feedback and application in decision making.
f) A project registry was established for purposes of recording the essential data on each
project aimed at controlling the plan and analyzes variances as way of ensuring efficiency.
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g) Strengthening and revitalizing the DDCs across the country to ensure improved
coordination. The DDCs were to take a lead in addressing programmes and projects issues
and also monitor all government expenditure as a way of enhancing implementation.
h) The District focus for Rural Development (DFRD) strategy was introduced and it gave the
most comprehensive proposal for M&E of the decentralized development projects. The
Provincial Monitoring and evaluation Committees and District Development committees
were given the responsibility to carry out M&E.
i) The government set up Presidential Economic Commission (PEC) and launched policy
framework paper to ensure continuous monitoring policy implementation in both the public
and private sector.
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WEEK THREE AND FOUR

METHODOLOGY OF EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

Planning Approaches

The following are approaches used in Educational Planning:

- Benefit/Rate Returns approach.

SOCIAL DEMAND APPROACH

Namaswa and Mutua (1992) said that social demand approach is the aggregate “popular” demand
for education. It is the sum total of individual demand for education. It is the sum total of individual
demand for education at given place and time under the prevailing social-economic conditions. It
is mainly concerned with consumption function of education rather than the investment part of it.
It considers following questions.

i) How many children are born each year?

ii) How many children are of school age cohort?
iii) How many children of school age cohort desire education?
This approach relies on private demand for education and stipulates that all those that demand for
education should be given the opportunity provided that they are qualified. The FPE and FDSE
programme in Kenya (started in 2003) was based on this approach. This school believes that
education is one of the fundamental human rights of every individual. As such, it recommends that
all those who qualify for admission into a particular level of education must be given the
opportunity (given admission). It is believed that all expenses and activities on education are good
in themselves.

Generally, the belief is that when the citizens are literate, it will be easy for them to know their
rights, participate in the choice of who is to rule them and avoid political thuggery. To a large
extent, political reasons dictate the adoption of the social demand approach. This explains
somehow why government continues to spend so much money on education.
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ASSUMPTION OF THE SOCIAL DEMAND APPROACH

The social demand approach makes a number of assumptions, viz:

a) That education is the birth right of every individual and that it must be made available to all
individuals to the limits of their requests.
b) That all children of school age will demand for education that is meant for their ages.
c) That the demand for education will continue to be greater than its supply.
d) That the unit cost of education will remain fairly constant.
e) That expanded education opportunities will add significantly to social and economic growth.

MERIT OF THE SOCIAL DEMAND APPROACH

1. Encourages mass education and mass literacy.

2. It is an instrument for building egalitarian societies.
3. It democratizes educational opportunities in the society.
4. Policy makers and governments find the social demand approach easy to defend since the
philosophy of the approach is the satisfaction of the educational needs of the people.
5. Promotion of a sense of national unity and the “equalization of educational opportunities.”
6. The social demand approach can show the planner the resources that can be allocated to each
level of education as long as certain existing trends continue and if private demand is to be
satisfied.

DEMERITS OF THE SOCIAL DEMAND APPROACH

There are some shortcomings on the application of the social demand approach.

1. The fact that it does not show whether there is an alternative optimum allocation of resources.”
Ignores resources allocation i.e. assumes that because factor is not important
2. The social demand approach ignores the types and kind of manpower that is needed by the
economy and that which can readily result in the production of too many people skilled in one area
and not enough in another.
3. The social demand approach tends to over-estimate popular demand and to underestimate costs.
4 Few countries are in position to afford the cost of providing education to all and sundry.
5 Mass educations may tend to give rise to low quality education.
 18

6 The approach is not usually cost effective as it tends to require a large chunk of the National
budget.
7 Fails to consider the vacancies and capacity of the labour market (occupational and industrial)
to absorb the graduates of the educational system.
MOMANPOWER REQUIREMENT OR FORECASTING APPROACH

The term “Manpower” denotes the attempt to develop a nation’s human resources to meet the
demands of her economy. The Manpower requirements approach is applied purposely to aspects
of skilled manpower in the labour force.

This approach emphasizes the need for planners to reflect on the manpower needed areas of the
society using this as a basis for planning the educational system. The objective therefore would be
to satisfy present manpower needs as well as to forecast future needs. Emphasis is placed on
forecasting and training appropriate manpower relative to the dictates of the labour market.
Exponent of this approach determine areas of need through surveys.Psacharopaulos (1985) states
that manpower forecasting approach involves an analysis of the skilled manpower requirements
from the quantities, kinds and levels of education required to meet the required.

Namaswa (1992) describes manpower approach as the analysis of the market needs of a country
in terms of human resources through the educational system as an important pre-requisite for
economic growth. Needed manpower levels and kinds of educations are thus estimated and the
educational system is charged with the responsibilities of producing them (Nwankwo, 1981,
Thompson, 1981).

The belief of this school of thought is that in order to increase the national income, more skilled
manpower must be produced and supplied to economics, for example, using this approach, if you
are a proprietor of a health center and you want to ensure that more patients receive attention at
the center, you will decide to employ more nurses and doctors. In this case, what you are assuming
is that with increased number of nurses and doctors, more patients would be attended to. This
means that it is realized that a shortage of trained personnel will present a major setback to
economic growth, and this you do not want.
 19

ASSUMPTION OF THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS APPROACH

1. There is a direct relationship between increase in skilled manpower and productivity. That is,
the more the skilled manpower, the greater the output to be produced.
2. Future changes in the distribution of educational personnel are associated with growth and
changes in the production of goods and services;
3. Education can be used to transform skills and competencies of the citizens;
4. The economic system depends on the educational system and vice versa.
The economic system provides educational system with human, material and financial resources
which the system utilizes to provide for the students who will after their training, be release to the
economy to work in various factories and ministries.
5.Increase in the demand for different forms of educated manpower can be predicted on the basis
of the prediction of future increased output.
) MERITS MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS APPROACH

1. The approach ensures that only the right quantity and calibre of manpower needed for national
development are produced. It examines the output pattern of education against the number of jobs
available in the modern sector.
2. The approach is economic oriented by minimizing waste of resources.
3. It emphasizes the acquisition of appropriate educational qualification as pre requisite for
employment. It gives useful guidance on how education qualification of labour ought to evolve.
4. It ensures high quality education.

LIMITATION OF THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS APPROACH:

There are limitations in the application of the manpower requirements approach which includes;
(a) The approach tends to confine its attention to high-level manpower. This is because it hasn’t
said anything about primary education yet primary education is the bedrock of any education.
(b) Manpower requirements approach ignores the principles of cost-benefit techniques.
That is, it does not compare the cost of the manpower to be produced and the benefits to be divided
from such manpower.
(c) The manpower requirements approach ignores social demands for education. That is, it does
not consider the aggregate popular demand for education. Rather, it merely considers the shortage
of manpower which needed to be provided.
(d). It takes time to produce results (i.e. manpower production)
(e). It neglects other skill areas not immediately required by the economy.
 20

(f) It is difficult to make reliable forecast of manpower requirements because of political,

economic, social and technological changes. Fluctuations are reflected in manpower plans.
g) As we make projections this approach does not take into account the cost involved in the
production of the labour force.

COST –BENEFIT ANALYSIS/RATE OF RETURNS APPROACH

Maureen Woodhall (1970) defined CBA as the systematic comparison of the cost and benefits of
some form of investment in order to assess the profitability of the investment.

This approach holds that in order to be able to decide whether a particular venture is worth
investing on or not, we need to calculate the cost of the venture and also calculate the benefits
(private and social benefits) to be derived from it. Then, the two (costs and benefits) are then
compared. If it is such that:

a) The cost is greater that the benefits, then it is advisable that you do not invest your resources on
the project, since loss is involved.

b) The cost is less than the benefits, then it is advisable that you invest your resources in it since
you will make profit: and

c) the cost equals the benefit, then you may have to consider some other factors such as whether
you want to embark on the project so as to gain some popularity, or not. After considering such
factors, you will be able to, in this case, decide on what to do.

The emphasis of this approach is that all investments in education like other sectors of the economy
must be cost-benefit oriented. Educational planners adopting this approach evaluate the rate of
returns or benefits of education to both the individual and the society, before investments are made
(Thompson, 1981, Nwankwo, 1981).

MERITS OF THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

1. The approach allows educational planners the opportunity to a comparison with other alternative
investments. This is because it provided different alternative methods of assessing the investment
in education before a final decision is taken.
 21

2 The cost-benefit analysis provides information about the links between education, the labour
market and the economic consequences of alternative policies.

3. This approach is the most national and prudent approach to planning. In a general sense, it is
economically oriented. Suggest ways of increasing profitability of education e.g. either increasing
the benefits of education or lowering the cost.

4. It minimizes waste in investments

5. Emphasizes benefit versus costs principle.CBA focuses attention on the problem of choosing
between alternatives.

DEMERITS OF THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

CBA cannot be used as a measure of pure benefit of education due to variances in earning
differentials. Differences can be as a result of:-

1. Social backgrounds and abilities of individuals or how such factors may have a positive
influence on their earnings and education attainment. In this country, there are many people who
had never been to any school, yet they are successful teachers or businessmen and women.

2. The approach holds the assumption that there is a direct link between earnings and productivity.
It is very difficult to establish this in a developing country. In actual fact, some sectors tend to be
that the higher the pay, the less the workers level of productivity

3. The cost-benefit analysis pays attention to the investment aspects of education against the
consumption aspect. It is also hard to calculate benefits accruable to an educated man in monetary
terms. The intangible benefits of education are difficult to calculate.

4. It is difficult to calculate social and private rates of return.

5. Fails to realize that benefits of education are hard to quantify in view of poor statistical data.
6. It fails to realize that benefits accruing from education take time to nature.
7. The approach neglects the primary level of education
8. CBA does not take into account the social demand and manpower approaches.
9. Gender –some situations may favour either men or women
 22

10. CBA assumes that there is full employment of educated labour force. This is not the case in
practice.
11. Natural ability and drive. If one is active he/she can easily be promoted to high job group.
12. Type of occupation will dictate salary scale
 23

Week Five

THE STAGES AND PROCESS OF EDUCATION PLANNING

Educational planning goes through the following stages:

● Analysis of base situation;

● Draft plan preparation;
● Implementation;
● Appraisal (evaluation)
To critically assess these stages, the following procedures are followed:

There are 5-basic stages in educational planning: -

a) Identify the goals to be achieved for example the government of Kenya set up educational
goals/ objectives at the very beginning 1963
b) How do we achieve the identified goals? We determine the best of the alternative possible
ways. There are 3 main methods /approaches that can be used
c) Social demand approach
d) Manpower approach
e) Cost benefit analysis
We take into accounts a number of factors

a) Consider their relative cost and benefits e.g. in terms of human resources,
economic resources e.t.c.
b) Time requirement
c) Practical feasibility
d) Educational effectiveness-each method should enable us to attain
educational goals effectively
c) Consider the condition that will influence the achievement of those goals for
example; inflation, political instability and availability of capital. If there is political
instability; attainment of educational objectives may not be easily realized. How much of
nation’s resource (capital) should be devoted to education at the expense of other
ministries?
 24

d) Then make a decision (decision-making). The decision should be devoid of politics.

Planners should be left to decide on their own as per the prevailing conditions.
e) Implementation/evaluation stage-evaluates or reflect back to see whether the objectives
have been attained after we have implemented the program.
OR
STAGES IN PLANNING EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMMES
The process of planning takes different phases as explained below
1. Definition and Identification of Needs
Economists agreed that human needs are varying and insatiable. In the course of planning for
educational programmes, the first stage is the definition and identification of needs.
Needs for what?
Needs for who? etc
In defining the needs, there should be proper understanding of what educational needs are.
However, educational needs can be: space need, infrastructural need, information communication
technology need, manpower need, training need for teaching and non-teaching staff, and lots more.
I know that you as a student can further identify the different educational needs in the
educational system.
2. Formulation of Problem/ Statement of educational objectives.
The formulation of problem has from time immemorial been posing problems to individuals and
students inclusive. Inability to define what the problem is will not provide clarity about getting a
picture of what an educational problem is. Adequate formulation of the problems will help in
determining how effective the solutions or decisions will be enhanced towards getting workable
solutions to the problem.
The educational objectives must be identified and clearly stated. This will ensure that there is no
confusion about the objectives.

3. Consideration of Premises/ Identification of various activities

The term premises here refer to the environment in which the planned educational programmes
will be carried out. Environment plays a significant role in successful carrying out of educational
programmes. There are situations in which the environment will be hostile and not
accommodating. This can be as a result of occurrences of natural disaster such as earthquake,
erosion, flood, climatic conditions and climate change and so on. Situations like these will work
against successful implementation of planned educational programmes. On the other hand, if the
highlighted natural occurrences do not occur, the premises in which educational programmes will
be carried out will be favorable, rewarding and welcoming. if the environment is ready and
 25

friendly, while the learner too is ready, the planned educational programme will be successfully
carried out. On the whole, there is the need for a state of equilibrium, balance and stability between
the premises, educational premises and the recipients that will benefit from such educational
programmes.
The various activities which are needed to achieve the stated objectives must be clearly identified.
Usually, those activities relate to the supply of the human and material resources that are required.
This ranges from identifying such institutions (schools, examination bodies, etc) that would have
to be established for the plan implementation and monitoring, to the number of cleaners required.
They also relate to the identification of the number of staff required, their qualifications and
experience and the amount of money required to maintain the system.
4. Identification of Alternatives
Problems are bound to occur, while solutions are bound to be proffered for different
problems. Whatever problems that arise, there are available so many solutions. There are among
the solutions some that are cost effective, while some are not. Some solutions are characterized
with time wasting, while there are some that are time saving. As an educational planner,
you are saddled with the responsibility of identifying the different available alternative
solutions to the problem at hand, so that the array of solutions can be examined, and there by
adopt the solution that is cost effective and time saving also.
5. Selection of Best Alternatives
Out of the differently available alternatives, the next stage in planning educational programmes
is the selection of best alternative that will help in finding solution(s) to the identified
problem(s). In the process of selecting the best alternative, there should be the consideration
of questions such as: (i) will such best alternative be cost effective? (ii) Will such alternative
waste time or not? (iii) Will there be availability of human, material, monetary, etc-what are the
Resources required to implement or carry out the best alternatives? It is therefore imperative for
managers and planners to consider the above mentioned items while selecting the best
alternative to problems identified.
6. Implementation Stage
After the selection of the best alternative, the next stage is implementation stage. At this
stage, it is the point at which the best chosen alternative is implemented. Here, all the arms
of the school such as teaching, non-teaching and even support staff are involved. This is a stage
at which what is on paper is converted to reality to ensure that objectives stated are
realized. At this juncture, all hands must be on deck to ensure that every bits of
contribution of the implementers are cropped together by a coordinator otherwise called a
principal or the headmaster. :
In as much as there are plans, it is necessary to ensure that such plans does not end up
on the shelve but rather, see the light of the day. Therefore, plan implementation is the next
phase in a planning process. This phase ensures that whatever that is on paper is thoroughly
 26

carried out to the letter. Invariably, the issue of plan implementation is an administrative
function.
7. Evaluation/Review:
This is the last stage in the planning of educational programme(s). It is important to evaluate the
stages involved in planning of educational programme, to find out whether they were good or not.
Furthermore, evaluation is important so as to discover the areas of lack that requires attention and
correction. Once evaluation is carried out, these areas of lack and insufficiency will be addressed
and it ensures that the programme is on track. Evaluation will further help at ensuring that the set
objectives are realized. While evaluating, the process of review of each of the earlier-on-
considered stages of planning educational programme is re-checked so as to ensure that
they fall in line with the expected targets and objectives.
Evaluation should be related to the stated objectives. The extent to which a plan meets the
objectives it has established for itself can be determined by looking at the implementation in relat
ion to those objective and outcome results
 27

WEEK SIX
CONDITION FOR SUCCESS IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING
Considerations for educational planning in a country
The major consideration for a successful education planning in a country includes;
1. Educational data should be reliable.
Every realistic plan is based on a dependable census when figure from the head count were
dependable, we could estimate, with reasonable accuracy, the number of classroom, teachers and
headmasters, desks and tables elaborative, capital and recurrent costs e.t.c
2. Supply and Demand of Teachers
The quality of education depends solely on the quality of teachers trained. This is because they
can only teach what they know. There is need for the restructuring of the curriculum of colleges
of Education and faculties of Education to respond to national needs. Also, steps should be taken
to improve the conditions of service of teachers if they are to remain in the education sector.
3. Educational Financing
Government should look for alternative ways of financing education in addition to equitable
sharing of financial burdens of education between central and county governments must be fully
considered by all parties concerned.
4. School Buildings
The design, construction, equipment and maintenance of school buildings should be considered.
School buildings should be adequately maintained because of their depreciation value; which if
not properly looked after, could be hazardous to the existence of the users that is teachers and
students.
5. Curriculum Development.
The constant modification of the curriculum is necessary, since the curriculum should be relevant
to the needs of the society, and the society is not static, it is dynamic.
6. Educational Materials.
The supply and distribution of educational materials are highly necessarily considered.
Educational materials such as books, maps rulers, pencils, teaching aids e.tc. may make the
educational programme fail, if not properly organized.
 28

7. Expansion Models
Expansion models must be created from the beginning to bring into consideration what is
envisaged in the primary, secondary and tertiary schools many years ahead, and to look for possible
strengths and weaknesses they can borrow and avoid in the present one.
8. Relevance to Political, Economic, Social and Cultural Policies and Objectives.
If educational plans are not closely geared towards political, economic, social and cultural
objectives, they will not take off and people will be educationally dissatisfied.
9. Integrated Implementation.
Strategies to mobilize everybody to reason to why the various statistics for planning are necessary
will bring about a sincere consideration for the need to plan the education of a nation. When public
support is achieved, decrees and laws are no longer imposed. Instruments and people will jointly
work towards the implementation of the educational plan.
10. Legal Bases.
Planning takes place under established laws. The legal framework for planning should be
streamlined through legislation to include the form, structure and functions of the planning units
and agencies, the staffing and the responsibilities, the relationships of the units with other
educational authorities (Gbadamosi, 2005).

PROBLEMS AND ISSUES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

Educational planning process is faced by a number of problems, namely;
(a) The cart before the horse Syndrome.
In most cases, educational planning efforts normally start after implementation. National leaders
make public pronouncements about educational policies or programmes without any regard to due
process. This they do to score political points. In situations like this, plans are never made for
implementation resources. The result then is failure. Psycharopoulous (1990) reported that this
kind of failure is reflected in three ways the intended policy was never implemented in the
first place; even if an attempt at implementation was made, it failed to be completed or achieve a
minimum critical mass so as to leave an impact; although the policy was implemented, it did not
have the intended effect.
 29

(b) Politics.
Technocracy of planning education only operates within the political ideological framework of the
government in power without any due regard to the socio-economic realities of the day. It is all
politics. This is called bureaucracy or red-tapism. It is a process of delaying and ensuring that
protocols are followed in the process of educational plans formulation and implementation.
Administrative bottlenecks involve stage-by-stage processing of plans, which will take several
weeks, months, and even years, before such educational plan is finally approved. The bottleneck
is usually found with the government machinery e.g in ministries in which jobs pass from
one stage to another, and from one officer to another. In the process of such plan moving
from one stage or officer to another, such officer might be transferred to another ministry. The
new personnel that takes over such office where the educational plan requires attention will need
some time to study the document before taking the necessary action. These are some of
the reasons why there will be bureaucracy in the process of effective educational planning.

(c)Lack of public involvement.

The plan are made on made on behalf of the people with the belief that “they” know the needs of
the people. Need assessment is rarely under taken. According to policy makers, the public will
always support any educational services being provided. This has proved otherwise. Those who
plan are not the implementers. The people are not involved at the stage of planning hence there is
little support when it comes to implementation.
(d) Resource constraint
Resources constraint at times are not taken into cognizance this affect the effective
implementation of plans. Also there is poor integration of tiers of government in project planning
resulting into ineffective plans eg CDF managed by MPS, county government funds by governor
and funds from central government. Class rooms, equipment, furniture and other instructional
materials are very inadequate to promote effective teaching and learning. There is over utilization
of physical facilities, yet they are poorly maintained. At the centre of resources constraint is
finance. All these affect proper planning of education.
This problem stems from scarcity of monetary resources. If for instance a country’s economy
is dependent on a single product for its foreign exchange, or it is dependent on its
importation and exportation means alone, monetary resources that will accrue to such country
 30

will be minimal, despite the fact that there will be so many sectors that will be competing for
the few monetary resources that is realizable by such country. If however, there is variety
of sources of foreign exchange earnings by a nation, such country stands the chance of
realizing huge sums of money which will enable her implement the proposed educational
plans to its successful completion.

Due to debt crisis, public expenditure per capita in developing countries has drastically reduced.
This has lowered quality and quantity of basic services such as education, water, and health. In the
education sector, this has translated into the freezing of teacher employment, reduced investment
spending in physical infrastructure and learning materials. Availability or non-availability of
teachers and learning materials are significant factors in educational achievement. Therefore, low
supply of teachers and learning materials has impacted negatively on educational achievement in
these nations, particularly at the lower levels of education. This scenario manifests itself in
candidates’ dismal performance in the national examinations.

(e) Weak data base.

In educational planning, two types of data are required. These are qualitative and quantitative in
nature. The quantifiable data are those related to education system and other system that influences
education. Educational system data that are needed for planning are institutional information on
management, levels, quantities, types and pattern of distribution, number of teachers by sex, age,
qualification, length of service, mortality, information on supportive staff, class data by arms and
grades, students information by sex, age, grade, output, inflow, repeaters, dropouts and by
disciplines, building and equipment by number, size specialty and types of construction materials;
and recurrent and capital expenditure data. Other related data are size, geo- political distributions,
age, sex structure and rate (s) of change – growth and decline of population (Nwadiani, 1990).
The quality of educational decisions and their implementation outcomes reveals the weaknesses
in methods of data collection which are still very routine and unreliable. The establishment of
Education Data Bank will go a long way in redressing the protracted problems of inaccurate and
inadequate data for effective planning of education in Kenya.
Lack of information on the part of experts constitute big problem to effective educational planning.
Most planning officers still use the manual information system to plan a system that is fast
 31

becoming outdated in the modern world, and this serves as barrier to effective educational
planning, once information is still manually retrieved. But in the days of computerized
management information system, information retrieval is efficient and adequate. Therefore, to
overcome this barrier, countries and organizations that still operate a manual means of retrieving
information must change over to the computerized means of management of information.

(f) High Population increase

Due to the large number of school age population more education burden is placed on society in
terms of providing teaching and learning inputs (human, material and time). Inability to cope with
the explosion of learners in our school system has affected effective planning of education in
Kenya.
Annual population growth rate has registered an upward trend in developing countries. Rapid
population growth has limited government’s ability to expanded educational opportunities thereby
lowering enrolment levels. Moreover, it has raised dependency ratio at the household level. This
has raised expenditure on some basic items, especially food, at the expense of education. It is
therefore, difficult for such families to make any meaningful contribution to the process of
educational development.

Educational planners need adequate and accurate demographic data in terms of age structure, sex
ratio, occupation, household income and geographical distribution. This information is vital for it
enables planners to project future demand for education and hence resources (e.g. teachers and
books).However, population data in some developing countries are unreliable since they are either
doctored for political reasons or inadequate due to poor spatial coverage by enumerators by
respondents due to high levels of illiteracy.

(g) Inadequate Trained personnel.

There is shortage of professionally trained educational planners. Educational planning divisions of
ministry of education are staffed with non-educational planners. This is why education planning
has not been effective. The existing stock of education personnel at institution where
implementation takes place all are poorly motivated.
 32

(h) Lack of Flexibility in administration.

The administrative tradition in education is very rigid. There is a tradition of administrative
procedures which with the attendant bureaucratization has led to inability of the system to respond
to changes within and outside education. This administrative tradition resulted into education
decisions being delayed, conflict of power and authority. Likewise the network of hierarchical role
relationship and accountability limits the expert freedom of the professionally trained educational
planner in the Ministry of Education that is solely responsible for policy issue.

(i)Wasteful Imbalances within the Educational System

This problem emanates from poor co-ordination of educational development at various levels. For
instance, there are instances whereby primary school enrolment is increased while the secondary
school sector is not correspondingly expanded. In Kenya, for example, more than half of the Kenya
Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) candidates do not get places in secondary schools.

(j) Instability in Policy:

There is instability in policy as a result of lack of continuity of plans. You need to

remember that once there is instability in policy, as a result of frequent changes in government,
there will continually be instability in policy which invariably serves as a barrier to
effective educational planning. Political instability is a common feature of the third world
nations. It to a great extent does not augur well for educational planning of countries of the third
world, and so it retards progression, achievement and success in all ramifications.

(k)Non-Commitment to Set Objectives:

It is one thing to set objectives, it is another to work towards realization of the objectives.
The masses, experts and government might be such that will not be committed to realization of set
objectives. This however might be as a result of non-awareness of what educational plans are
targeted at realizing, lack of focus on educational matters and even laissez faire attitude on
the part of stakeholders in the education sector.

Non-commitment to realization of a nations set educational objectives by stakeholders such as

masses, experts, government and so on, serves as barrier to effective educational planning.
 33

The education sector is made up of different units which are primary, secondary, tertiary, special,
technical and vocational,university,etc. Each of these units has its set goals and targets which are
clearly defined and well laid out in document such as the National Policy on Education etc.
In situations where those that are implementers of educational plan do not have proper
knowledge of the goals of these units within the education sector, then, there is an
impending problem which serves as a barrier to effective educational planning.

(l)HIV/AIDS

The ultimate aim of educational planning is to marshal resources and subsequently use them to
develop individuals and thus the entire society. However, the high rate of HIV/AIDS prevalence
is reversing the trend on the gains already made in the education sector. The disease has impacted
negatively on the performance of teachers, students and parents who are the central players in the
education sector. This is because prolonged periods of sickness of the affected teachers, students
and parent’s means that they cannot play their relevant roles effectively. Moreover, death of
teachers increases student-teacher ratio which compromises the quality of learning in the affected
schools while that of students occasions loss of resources already invested in them. When parents
die they leave behind orphans with virtually nobody to support their education and training. Most
of these orphans drop out of the school system and thus negate efforts by educational planners to
raise enrolment and completion rates particularly at the lower cycles of education.

PROBABLE SOLUTIONS TO EDUCATIONAL PLANNING PROBLEMS

The following are some possible solutions to the challenges facing education planners in Kenya:
(i) More teachers to be trained and employed in all sub- sectors of education so as to cater for the
rising demand hence enrolments at these levels.
(ii) To ensure that long term plans are formulated properly for future development, the process of
planning, in education need to be considered and executed expeditiously, teachers should be
involved in decision making so as to promote their morale hence their support for the school
administration.
(iii) Head teachers should be trained to have the ability to measure and correct performance and
should ensure that school events conform to plans so as to achieve the set goals.
 34

(iv) Community participation should be encouraged so as to take in to account their views

concerning how they want the schools to be managed this will boost their support for the school
management and administration.
(v) A lot of sensitization workshops should be mounted to all the education stakeholders especially
the management boards in order to impact the necessary skills to them so as to be able to deal with
the day to day emergent issues in education.
Vi) Re-adjusting educational Finance. The question is how additional resources can be made
available for education sector. The state should explore alternative options to fund education.
vii) Population control measures should be enhanced in order to check on rapid population
increase.

viii) Policies that influence educational management should be put in place. The rationale for
management reforms is that better utilization of scarce resources may preserve efficiency and
equity of education.

ix) Improve the links between education and productivity (Relevant education). Increased
productivity and job creation are two driving forces to refocus education programmes

Other solutions

1. Governments in developing countries need to establish independent planning units and

support them both morally and financially
2. Through relevant training, governments should improve the competence of educational
planners to enable them to carry out their tasks effectively
3. Governments should come up with clear educational policies so that educational planners
may know what they are planning for.
4. Educational planning should be accorded a holistic approach so as to address emerging
issues such as relevance, access and equity.
5. Politicians should refrain from politicizing educational matters. Rather they should allow
the planners to carry out their work with minimal interference.
6. Educational managers at the grass root level such as institutional heads, parents and
students should be involved in educational planning since they are important stake holders
in the sector. This underlines the need to complement traditional (centralized) approach
with participatory approach.
 35

WEEK SEVEN/EIGHT

MEASURING INTERNAL EFFICIENCY OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM

WAYS OF EVALUATING INTERNAL EFFICIENCY

Assessing the internal efficiency of an educational system is done by establishing the rate at which
students are flowing through the system. Such an analysis is crucial since it enables planners to
identify problem areas and measures to take so as to identify the situation. Indices used to assess
internal efficiency include the following.

Grade Survival Rate (GSR)

In educational systems that maintain a merit promotion policy, one has to pass an examination in
order to qualify to the next grade. However, there are systems that maintain automatic promotion
whereby the learner moves to the next grade regardless of whether he/she has failed or passed. The
aim of assessing GSR is to establish the extent to which students are moving between successive
grades in a system.

Grade survival rate is obtained by dividing the total number of students enrolled in a subsequent
grade in a subsequent year by the number enrolled in the previous grade in the previous year. The
objective is to answer the question: how many students survived in a subsequent grade in a
subsequent year? There are two categories of GSR, namely, Crude GSR and actual GSR.

Crude GSR

This refers to the number of students enrolled in any subsequent grade in a subsequent year divided
by the number enrolled in the previous grade in the previous year. We use this method in a situation
where we do not have data on the number of repeaters, hence the name “crude” GSR. The objective
is merely to get a rough estimate on the flow of students from one grade to another.
 36

Formula: Crude GSR =N k+1

t+1

k
N

Where: k = Class, form or grade

N = Total enrolment in a grade

t = Year

The table below shows the flow of secondary school students in a hypothetical country between
1986 and 1989.

Form / Grade 1 2 3 4 GRADUATES

Year

1986 120000 110000 102000 120000 84000

Repeaters 6000 5500 52000 10500

1987 126000 117000 104000 114000 81000

Repeaters 7500 5900 5300 11500

1988 147000 122000 112000 116000 90000

Repeaters 7900 6100 5600 12500

1989 152000 141000 118000 110000 100000

Repeaters 8200 7000 6000 13000

 37

From the table compute the following.

(i) CGSR between Form 1 and 2 in 1987 (the survival year is the one mentioned i.e. the
number of students who move to the subsequent grade in the subsequent year).

k+1
CGSR = N

t+1

k
N

= 117000

120000

= 0.975

(ii) The CGSR between form 2 and 3 in 1988.

k+1
CGSR = N

t+1

k
N

= 112000

117000

= 0.96

CGSR is thus an index that shows the extent to which the students are moving from one grade
to another uninhibited. Low CGSR indicates that there are problems (such as a highdrop-out
rate, repeater rate or both) in the educational sub-sector in question interfering with the smooth
flow of students from one grade to another.
 38

Actual GSR

This is the net survivors (those graduating to the next grade after deducting the total number
of repeaters in the subsequent grade in a subsequent year) divided by the total enrolment in the
previous grade in the previous year.

Formula:

AGSR =N k+1 R
k+1

t+1 t+1

k
N

Where: N = Total enrolment

k = Class, form or grade

t = Year

R = Repeaters

Example:

1. To compute the AGSR between Form 1 and 2 in 1987:

= 117000 - 5900

120000

= 111100

120000
 39

= 0.93

= 93%

2. To compute the AGSR between form 2 and 3 in 1989:

= 18000 - 6000

122000

= 112

122

= 0.92

= 92%

The AGSR is an important index for it shows the degree of internal efficiency of an education
system. Thus, if the AGSR in high, the education system in question is efficient and vice versa.
This information is vital for it helps us to know the problem area of each level and hence the
appropriate measures to take in order to improve the transition rate.

Grade Repeater Rate (GRR)

This is obtained by dividing the number of students who repeat the grade in a subsequent year by
the total enrolment in the same grade in the previous year.
 40

Formulae:

GRR = R k+1
t+1

k
N

Where: N = Total enrolment in the previous year

k = Grade / Class / form

t = Year

R = Repeaters

Example:

Calculate:

(i) GRR of Form 1 in 1987.

= 7500

120000

= 75

1200

= 0.063
 41

(ii) GRR of Form 3 in 1988.

= 5600

104000

= 0.054

Graduation Rate (GR)

This is the index that measures the population of learners in the final grade who were able to either
proceed to the next level of education or enter the labour market. This index is obtained by dividing
the total number of graduates in a particular year by the total number of students in the terminal
grade in that same year.

Formula:

GR = G k+3
t+3

k+3
N

t+3

NB: (a) The formula in this case is based on an education sub-sector or level where the
learner has to cover four years.

(b) Graduation moves in a horizontal way.

Example: Compute the GR for:

(i) 1988
Procedure: GR = G k+3 = 90000
t+3
116000
k+3
N

t+3
 42

= 0.776 = 78%

(ii) 1987 = 81000 = 0.711 = 71%

114000

If the obtained figure is close to 1, the GR is high and vice versa.

Grade Drop-out Rate (GDR)

GDR is the figure we cannot account for after the number of students promoted and those who
have repeated have been deducted from the original enrolment in the preceding year.

We use an indirect method whereby we find out those who are with others, that is, those left behind.
Then we get the difference so as to get the number of drop-outs.

Formula:
k k+1 k+1
GDR = N - N R +R k
t t+1 t+1t+1

k
N

Example:

Calculate the GDR between:

1. Form 1 and 2 in 1987.

GDR =120000 -117000 - 5900 + 7500

120000

= 0.012 = 1.2%
 43

2. Form 3 and 4 in 1989.

GDR =112000 -110000 - 13000 + 6000

112000

= 112000 - 103000

112000

= 0.08 or 8%

Drop-out rate is a vital index since it shows the extent to which resources invested in education
are being wasted. In this regard, if GDR is constant or rising, then the level of education in question
is said to be internally inefficient.

Grade Wastage Rate (GWR)

Grade wastage refers to the dual problem of repeating and dropping out from an education system.
The latter is the worst form of wastage.

GWR is obtained by dividing the number of students who fail to be promoted to a subsequent
grade by the original enrolment in the previous grade. There are two types of GWR namely, crude
GWR and actual GWR.

Crude GWR

Crude GWR is obtained by subtracting enrolment in a given grade from the enrolment in the
previous grade in the previous year and dividing the result with the enrolment in the previous year
and dividing the result with the enrolment in the previous grade in the previous year. Crude GWR
is computed when we do not have data on repeaters and drop-outs.
 44

Formula:

k k+1
N N

t t+1

k
N

Example:

(i) Find the CGWR between Forms 1 and 2 in 1987.

= 120000 - 117000

120000

= 3000

120000

= 0.025

iii) Find the CGWR between Forms 2 and 3 in 1988.

= 117000 - 112000

117000

= 5000

117000

= 0.043
 45

Actual GWR

This is obtained by subtracting the net survivors (i.e. those promoted into subsequent grade in a
subsequent year) from the total enrolment in a previous grade in a previous year divided by this
same total enrolment in the previous grade in the previous year.

Actual GWR is computed when we have data on repeaters.

Formula:

k k+1 k+1
N N R

t t+1 t+2

k
N

Example:

(i) Calculate the AGWR between Forms 1 and 2 in 1987.

= 120000 - (117000 - 5900)

120000

= 111100

120000

= 0.074
 46

(ii) Compute the AGWR between Forms 2 and 3 in 1988.

= 117000 - (112000 - 5600)

117000

= 10600

117000

= 0.091

Grade Retention Rate (GRR)

GRR is the opposite of drop-out rate. It is calculated by adding survivors in a subsequent grade in
a subsequent year and the repeaters of the same grade in the subsequent year and dividing the result
by the total enrolment in the previous grade in the previous year. Grade Retention Rate is,
therefore, an index that tries to assess the ability of an educational system to retain students in a
given grade in the subsequent grade in a subsequent year.

Formula:
k+1 k+1 k
GRR = N R R

t+1 t+2 t+1

k
N

Example:

(i) Calculate the GRR between Forms 2 and 3 in 1988.

= (112000 - 5600) + 6100

117000
 47

= 112500

117000

= 0.962

(ii) Compute the GRR between Forms 1and 2 in 1989.

= (141000 - 7000) + 8200

147000

= 0.967

A large proportion of those who enter class one in developing countries do not complete the
primary level of education. In Kenya, a number of measures have been suggested to address the
issue and thus enhance survival (retention) rate between primary and levels of education. Some of
these suggestions include:

▪ Initiating at the grassroots level campaigns aimed at positively changing people’s attitude
towards education.
▪ Provision of tuition for free primary education.
▪ Reforming the curriculum so as to be learner friendly in terms of content (e.g. examinable
subjects be reduced).
▪ Initiating programmes aimed at retaining learners in school, for example, school feeding
programmes in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL).
▪ Starting out-of-school programmes in areas occupied by nomadic communities (such
programmes are designed in a way that children can attend classes in the afternoon after
accomplishing their domestic chores such as grazing livestock.)
▪ Enactment of the Children’s Bill which outlaws child labour in such areas as fishing, coffee
picking, mining and hawking (Republic of Kenya, 2001).
▪ Encouraging double shift learning programmes in areas where there is an mismatch between
the number of learners and the available physical and human resources.
 48

Cohort Wastage Rate (CWR)

The term “Cohort” refers to a group of people with similar identifiable characteristics. Therefore,
a cohort of students refers to a group of learners who have similar characteristics, for instance, the
year of entry into particular level of education. For example, those who joined class one in 2003
are the cohort of students in that level in that year (2003).

The Cohort Wastage Rate measures the loss that occurs between the entry point and the exit point
in a particular level of an education system.

CWR can be divided into:

1. Crude CWR (CCWR) 2. Actual CWR (ACWR)

Crude Cohort Wastage (CCWR)

This is obtained by subtracting the total enrolment at the exit point (final grade) from the total
enrolment at the entry point (first grade) and dividing the obtained figure by the total enrolment at
the entry point. It is called “Crude” because we are not sure whether those who graduate in say,
Grade IV (exit point) belong to the cohort of students who registered in grade I. There are chances
they were infiltrated by other students in between repeating and hence it is very difficult to identify
the original cohort.

Formula:
k k+3 k+3
N N R

t t+3 t+4

k
N

Example: Find the CCWR of Form 1 in 1986.

= 120000 - (110000 - 13000)

120000

= 0.192
 49

NB: CCWR (above) is not reliable measure for computing cohort wastage rate because it is not
easy to know the number of repeaters from the entry point to the exit point. Compiling ACWR is
also a complex process.

Average Years per Graduate (AYPG)

Under normal circumstances, primary level of education in Kenya takes 8 years, secondary, 4 years
and university, 4 years. However, due to various problems like repeating or closure of an institution
(this is common in Kenyan public universities), students can take more than the stipulated number
of years in a given level. Nevertheless, in an ideal situation, AYPG is obtained by adding total
enrolments in each of the grades as a cohort moves from the entry point to the exit point and
dividing the result by the number of students graduating from that cohort. If, for example, you get
a figure of 6 years in respect of secondary school education in Kenya, then it means that the system
is producing on average Form 4 graduates in 6 years instead of 4 years. This represents wastage
of resources worth 2 years. Formula:

k k+1 k+2 k+3

N N N N

t t+1 t+2 t+3

k+3
G

t+3

Example:

Find the AYPG for the 1986 Form 1 cohort

= 120000 + 117000 + 112000 + 110000

100000

= 4.59 = 5 yrs

Implication: Resources worth one year were wasted in respect to 1986 Form 1 cohort.
 50

WEEK NINE/TEN

THE IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION STUDIES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IN

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Population structure and its effects on education

Studying the structure of a population means studying its composition, i.e., its distribution
according to certain pre-defined criteria. Educational planners may be concerned with the
distribution of the population for various reasons that includes.
i) They may be interested in its distribution by age and sex. This enables them to measure the
relative size of the school-age population, which is the foundation and the point of departure for
any educational policy.

ii) They may be concerned with the distribution of the population by sector of economic activity
and, within each of these sectors, by occupation. Without accurate knowledge of the distribution
by sector and occupation, it is impossible to estimate manpower requirements, and hence to
determine targets for technical, vocational and higher education.

iii) Planners may be concerned with the geographical distribution of the population, which affects
both the cost of education and the choice of types, sizes and locations of schools.

Age structure of the population and educational development

Age structure and teacher requirements
The persistence of a high birth rate from 1945 to 1970, followed by a drop as from 1970, has had
a considerable impact on education.
More generally, whenever the birth rate falls for one reason or another, this decrease will affect
the number of children in primary education six years later, the number in secondary school 12
years later and the number in higher education 18 years later. Such a trend makes it easier to absorb
the increased social demand for secondary and higher education.
The structure of the population by age can yield much other useful information for educational
planning. It can be used, in particular, to measure the relative burden of expenditures on education.
 51

Age structure and relative burden of educational expenditures

Expenditures on education are proportionate to enrolment and consequently depend indirectly on
the school-age population, but the financing of education can be considered as a levy on the output
of the economically active part of the population. If the school-age population is made up of
children from 5 to 14 years of age inclusive, and the active population is recruited from persons
aged 15 to 64, an estimate of the relative burden of educational expenditures on the active
population is obtained by calculating the ratio of the 5 to 14-year-old population to the 15 to 64-
year-old population.
As earlier seen, the age structure enables us to estimate the relative size of the school-age
population. It also enables us to calculate school enrolment rates in order to try to answer the
following question: ‘What proportions of children receive an education?’

Age structure and school enrolment rates

The gross enrolment rate is calculated as the ratio of the total number enrolled at a given
educational level to the age group corresponding to the official age at that level. If, for example,
primary education comprises five years of schooling and the official age of admission is six years,
the gross enrolment rate in primary education is equal to:

Total number of pupils in primary education

ER Gross = ——————————————————
Total 6 to 10-year-old population

This method of calculation leads to overestimation of school enrolment: Some children may be
admitted early, before the official age; while others are over the official age, owing to either late
admission or repetition of grades.

For this reason, a net enrolment rate is also calculated:

No. of pupils 6 to 10 years of age in primary education

ER Net = ——————————————————————
Total 6 to 10-year-old population
 52

Unfortunately, the net enrolment rate has the opposite disadvantage as the gross rate: it
underestimates enrolment rates, since all pupils above and below the official age range are
excluded.
The enrolment rate for an entire educational level, whether gross or net, is thus not an entirely
satisfactory indicator. For this reason, enrolment rates are also calculated for each year of age. The
enrolment rate for 6-year-olds, for example, is equal to:

No. of 6-year-old pupils in primary education

ER 6 years = ————————————————————
Total 6-year-old population

Enrolment rates by specific age are more precise than those by age group, but they do not fully
dispel the ambiguity. A 6-year-old enrolment rate of less than 100 per cent does not mean that not
all children are admitted to school. Some may enter school at 7 years of age, at 8, or even later
still.

Population changes and their impact on educational planning

The study of population changes must take into account the trend of any increase (or, in some
cases, decrease) in the population over time. The two main factors which affect this trend are
natality and mortality. The combination of these two factors, plus migration, determines the
changes in the size of a population.

NATALITY
The crude birth rate
This is the simplest rate, is calculated as the ratio of the number of live births during a year to the
average population for that year. The average population for a year can be considered either as the
population figure for 1 July of that year, or as the average of the population figures for the
beginning and the end of the year.
Note that the birth rate is given per thousand, as is often the case for demographic rates. Although
the crude birth rate has the advantage of being a simple rate, easily obtained from general data, it
 53

nevertheless has certain disadvantages. One of these disadvantages is that it gives the ratio of live
births to the total population, whereas, in fact, only a part of the female population is capable of
bearing children. Consequently, the crude birth rate will vary with the structure of the population
by age and sex, or more precisely the percentage of women of childbearing age in relation to the
total population. This rate, therefore, cannot be used to make comparisons between countries,
because age structures may be very different in one country than in another. This is why
demographers prefer to use fertility rates rather than the crude birth rate.

Fertility rates
The term ‘fertility’ is used to indicate the proportion between the number of births and the number
of women of child-bearing age. A distinction can be made, however, between the general fertility
rate and age-specific fertility rates.

The general fertility rate

This rate is the ratio of live births to the number of women of child-bearing age (considered by
convention to be women of 15 to 49 years). As in the case of the crude birth rate, this rate is
expressed per thousand.
One of the drawbacks of the general fertility rate is that it does not give a detailed picture of
natality. It is known that fertility varies with age and is particularly high in women between 20 and
30. The general fertility rate of the population may therefore be higher or lower depending on the
proportion of women aged 20 to 30. For this reason planners prefer to calculate age-specific
fertility rates.
Age-specific fertility rates
Fertility rates can of course be calculated for each year of age, but in general they are given by age
groups (ages 15-19, 20-24, 25- 29, etc.).
Where there is no deliberate birth control, fertility rates by age indicate the biological capability
of women to bear children: the fertility rate is higher among young women and tends to fall as
their age rises. In this case, it is possible to forecast the number of future births with some degree
of accuracy on the basis of the age distribution of women and the fertility rate by age.
Where birth control is practiced, however, this rate becomes difficult to interpret. When the size
of the family is intentionally restricted and when the births are deliberately spaced, the age of
 54

women is no longer the only factor affecting fertility. Other factors come into play, such as age at
marriage, length of time married, and the number of children preceding a given birth.
The number of births has great significance for educational planners, as this number will determine
the future number of pupils and students in the various levels of the education system. In most
countries, educational planning is concerned with increases in the number of pupils and students,
but in others – after a period of declining natality – it may involve planning for a drop in this
number, a task that raises problems of similar complexity.
A decrease in the birth rate is not the only cause of a declining number of school pupils. As will
be seen below, internal migration may cause a substantial drop in the rural population. In such
cases, the number of pupils in rural schools will decline, resulting in underutilization of such
schools, while at the same time, new schools must be built in urban areas to accommodate the
children of those who have migrated to the cities. Thus, planning for an increased number of pupils
in some areas may take place simultaneously with planning for decreased numbers in other areas
within the same country. Declining natality is a general phenomenon observed in all countries of
Western Europe. As early as the beginning of the 1950s, the general fertility rate in Germany, the
United Kingdom and Sweden had fallen.

MORTALITY
A distinction can usually be made between two types of mortality, depending on the cause of death:
endogenous mortality and exogenous mortality.
Endogenous mortality means death occurring from a cause which is to some extent inherent in the
individual. Thus, when a child is born with deformities and dies because of these deformities, the
death of that child can be declared endogenous. Deaths due to old age, or the diseases which
accompany old age, can also be classified under this category.
Exogenous mortality, in contrast, refers to deaths from other causes, such as accidents, contagious
diseases, and dietary deficiencies. Although this may appear to be a very clear-cut distinction, it is
much less clear in practice, either because the causes of death may be unknown or not declared, or
because there may be multiple causes of death. The distinction can nonetheless prove very useful.
Although the progress of hygiene and medical care on the one hand, and the rise in living standards
on the other, are capable of reducing exogenous mortality to a marked extent, they have very little
 55

effect on endogenous mortality. The fact is that although medical progress can prevent certain
premature deaths, it cannot prolong life beyond a certain limit.

Methods of measuring mortality

The simplest way of measuring mortality is the crude death rate. This rate is obtained by dividing
the total number of deaths in a specific year by the average population figure for that year. It
thusresembles the crude birth rate discussed above.This rate is quite straightforward to calculate
and does not requiredetailed mortality statistics. However, it has the same drawbacks asthe crude
birth rate where international comparisons are concerned.As an example, over the 1990-1995
period the crude death rate inSyria was 5.6 per thousand, while that of the United Kingdom was9.4
per thousand. These figures give the misleading impression thatthe mortality level was higher in
the United Kingdom than in Syria.This apparent paradox is easily explained by the fact that
mortalityvaries greatly with age: it is low among younger people and, of course,higher for more
advanced ages. The proportion of deaths in relationto the total population will therefore depend on
the age structure ofthat population.
A youthful population such as that of Syria (i.e. apopulation in which the proportion of younger
people is larger thanthat of older people) will have fewer deaths and hence a lower crudedeath rate
than an older population.
The general nature of the crude death rate thus diminishes its significance to demographers, who
– faced with the fact that the level of mortality varies substantially according to age – are inclined
to calculate age-specific mortality rates. These rates obviously provide much more accurate
indications of the level of mortality in a given population. Mortality rates are of course calculated
separately for men and for women, for they also differ between the sexes. Most countries display
excess male mortality, i.e. the mortality rate is higher for men than for women at advanced ages.

The impact of AIDS on educational development

In countries where the level of HIV infection is already high, AIDS has, of course, a considerable
impact on educational development and quality. In analyzing this problem, it is appropriate to start
by examining the impact of AIDS on the work and performance of teachers and its effect on student
learning.
(a) The impact of AIDS on the work, performance and number of teachers
 56

AIDS strikes young adults first, primarily the 30-40 year age group, which is the group containing
the bulk of the teaching force (both men and women). Moreover, it appears that teachers are
especially at risk.
In its early stages – i.e. during the primary infection stage and the asymptomatic infection stage,
or latency period – HIV infection has little impact on the work performed by teachers, especially
if, as is often the case, the infected person does not know that he or she is HIV-positive. The impact
on teachers’ performance begins to be felt in the end stage of the infection, i.e. AIDS, when there
is a considerable risk of opportunistic infections. At this stage, there is a dramatic increase in the
amount of sick leave taken for periods of varying length. Even worse, AIDS leads inevitably to
death, and the resulting decimation of the teaching force, trained with difficulty and at considerable
expense, forms an additional barrier to the development and qualitative improvement of basic
education, particularly for the poorest countries.

(b) The impact of AIDS on student learning

The frequent absence of teachers, and the lack of substitute teachers, definitely has an impact on
children’s learning and achievement. Children’s learning process may also be perturbed when HIV
infects a family member or friend, particularly when the infected person is one of their parents.
Moreover, one of the most tragic social consequences of the rapid spread of AIDS is the huge
increase in the number of orphans, who cannot always be placed in a foster home owing to the
loosening of family ties, the decline in traditional mechanisms of solidarity (particularly in urban
areas), the fear of incurring further expenses, and the sometimes irrational fear of contagion.
57