Activity 8

Aim:

Study of distribution, quantification and change of status of biodiversity present in a

particular area using Species Distribution Models (SDMs).

Introduction:

A Species Distribution Model (SDM) serves as a valuable tool in the fields of ecology
and biogeography, aiding in the prediction of a species' potential geographical
distribution. The underlying principle revolves around the notion that each species
exhibits preferences for specific environmental conditions. By comprehending these
conditions, it becomes possible to anticipate where the species may reside within a
given landscape or how it might react to alterations in the environment, such as
those induced by climate change.

To put it simply, envision a specific plant species that thrives in cool and wet
climates. If you possess data that indicates where this plant has been sighted and
data on the climate across a wide area, an SDM can be utilized to forecast where
else within that region this plant could be located based on the prevailing climate
conditions.

Let's add some illustrative data from my database to emphasize the concept:
For instance, consider a study on the distribution of the "Acer palmatum" (Japanese
maple), which prefers temperate climates. In a given region, we have observed that
this species primarily occurs in areas with an annual temperature range of 10-20°C
and an annual precipitation of 800-1200 mm.

Using this data, an SDM can be created to predict where else in the region this
species is likely to be found. The model might reveal that areas with similar
temperature and precipitation patterns, even if they haven't been surveyed, are
potential habitats for the Japanese maple. This knowledge is invaluable for
conservation efforts, land use planning, and assessing the impact of changing
climate conditions on the distribution of this species.
In essence, SDMs provide a practical means of harnessing data to make informed
predictions about the distribution of species, enabling us to better understand and
protect the natural world.

Steps followed to do the study:

1. Data Collection for Species Distribution Models (SDMs):

Presence Data: Presence data records where a species has been observed.
Sometimes, "absence" data, indicating areas surveyed where the species wasn't
found, is also collected.

Environmental Variables: These continuous data layers describe the landscape's

environmental conditions. They include temperature (mean, minimum, maximum),
precipitation, soil attributes, elevation, and land cover types. Typically, these data are
sourced from remote sensing or climate datasets.

For example, when studying the distribution of the "Turdus migratorus" (American
robin), presence data records sightings of the species, while environmental variables
include climate data and land cover information. Combining these data sets is crucial
for creating predictive models that help us understand the species' distribution and
habitat preferences, aiding in conservation efforts.

2. Data Preprocessing for Species Distribution Models (SDMs).

Cleaning: The first step involves cleaning presence data to remove duplicates,
errors, or biased points, ensuring the data's accuracy.

Gridding: Environmental data is transformed into raster grids, where each cell
represents environmental conditions. This standardizes the format for SDM use.

Alignment: To create precise SDMs, presence data and environmental variables are
aligned to the same coordinate system and spatial resolution. This ensures
meaningful comparisons and accurate modelling.

In our American robin distribution study, data pre-processing includes cleaning

presence records, converting environmental data into grids, and aligning datasets for
accurate modelling of habitat preferences and distribution.

3. Selecting Models for Species Distribution:

The choice of a model for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) depends on the data
and research question:

- Maxent: Ideal for presence-only data.

- GLMs and GAMs: Versatile for presence-absence and presence-only data.
- Random Forests, Boosted Regression Trees, Support Vector Machines: Complex
algorithms capturing intricate relationships.
- Bioclim: Simpler model identifying species presence within specific environmental
conditions.

In India's context, the model choice depends on the specific research. For instance,
Maxent may be suitable for presence-only data in studies involving endemic plant
species in regions like the Western Ghats. Alternatively, complex algorithms like
Random Forests might better capture the dynamics of migratory bird distribution
across the diverse habitats in the country. The model choice is tailored to data and
research goals to accurately represent species distribution in India.

4. Model Calibration:
The chosen algorithm is trained using observed presence (and possibly absence)
data along with environmental variables. This calibration phase helps the model
understand the relationship between the environment and species presence.
 5. Model Evaluation:
Ensuring the model's performance is robust is crucial. Commonly, data is divided into
a training set (to build the model) and a testing set (to evaluate it). Metrics like the
Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plot
are often used for evaluation. A model with an AUC close to 1 is considered effective,
while an AUC near 0.5 suggests a model no better than random guessing.

6. Prediction:
The calibrated model is then used to predict species distribution across the entire
study area or even in other areas or time periods, generating a map of habitat
suitability.

7. Interpretation and Application:

The resulting suitability map provides insights into high and low suitability areas for
the species. These maps are invaluable for conservation planning, identifying
potential regions for species reintroduction, assessing the impacts of land use
changes, or predicting the potential spread of invasive species.

8. Considerations and Pitfalls:

• Scale and Resolution:

The scale and resolution of the study have a significant impact on results.
Coarse-scale models may overlook fine-scale habitat features, potentially leading
to inaccuracies.

• Correlation between Predictors:

High correlation between environmental variables can pose challenges for certain
modelling algorithms. Multicollinearity can make it difficult to distinguish the
unique effects of each variable.

• Model Transferability:
Models developed in one region or time period may not be universally applicable.
Environmental conditions and species' responses can vary, so transferring
models across different regions or times may yield unreliable results.

• Stationarity Assumption:
Many SDMs assume that the relationship between species and the environment
remains constant over time. However, in a rapidly changing world, this
assumption may not always hold, especially in the context of climate change and
shifting ecological dynamics.
Conclusion:
In summary, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are vital tools in environmental
science, offering insights into species distribution, habitat preferences, and
ecological changes. These models involve data collection, pre-processing, model
selection, calibration, evaluation, and prediction. However, potential pitfalls, including
scale, predictor correlations, model transferability, and the stationarity assumption,
emphasize the need for careful, context-aware application.
In India, with its diverse ecosystems, SDMs are essential for conservation and land
management. Understanding these models and their potential challenges enables
informed decisions to protect India's rich biodiversity and adapt to evolving
environmental dynamics.