PROSIDING HIMPUNAN AHLI GEOFISIKA INDONESIA

Pertemuan Ilmiah Tahunan ke-29, Yogyakarta 5-7 Oktober 2004

TSUNAMI ZONING FOR SOUTHERN-COAST OF JAVA

Nanang T. Puspito
Department of Geophysics and Meteorology – ITB
Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132. Tel.: 022-2500494; Fax. 022-2534139;
E-mail: puspito@geoph.itb.ac.id

Abstract

This study is aimed to develop a tsunami zoning for southern-coast of Java based on the maximum
predicted tsunami heights. A total of 7 hypothetical earthquakes that were assumed to generate tsunamis in
future were estimated based on analysis of seismicity. The hypothetical earthquakes were assumed to cause
by subduction along the Java trench with moment magnitudes (Mw) vary from 7.5 to 8.0 and thrust type
faulting mechanism. A numerical tsunami simulation method originally developed by the Tohoku University
of Japan was performed to estimate tsunami heights and their arrival times at 18 points along the coast from
Ujung Kulon in westernmost of Java to Kuta in Bali. The maximum predicted tsunami heights along the
coast vary from 1.0 to 5.0 meters, while their arrival times vary from 20 to 50 minutes after the earthquake
occurrences. The highest tsunami height was predicted at Pangandaran of West Java and Popoh of East Java,
while the lowest one was predicted at Nusakambangan of Central Java and Pulau Sempu of East Java.

Keywords: tsunami zoning, tsunami simulation, tsunami height

I. Introduction
Java and its surrounding are less prone to tsunami disaster compare to other regions in Indonesia
such as the eastern part of Indonesia. Tsunami occurrences in the region are only about 5% of total tsunami
occurrences in Indonesia (Puspito, 2002). Historical tsunami catalogue (Gusiakov, 2002) recorded only 7
tsunamis occurred in the region during a period from 1801 to 2000. However, the tsunamis caused severe
damaged and thousands of people killed. Among them are the 1883 Krakatau and the 1994 East Java
tsunamis.
In term of earthquake occurrences, the region is characterized by high seismicity due to subduction
and local fault activities. This high seismicity should be considered as high potential to generate tsunamis in
the future since most of tsunamis in Indonesia – about 90% of total tsunamis – were generated by
earthquakes (Latief et al., 2000). Therefore, study on various aspects of tsunami in the region should be more
promoted in order to support the tsunami mitigation program.
This study will develop tsunami zoning based on the predicted tsunami heights along the southern-
coast of the region. An analysis of seismicity will be performed to estimate hypothetical earthquakes that are
assumed to generate tsunamis in the future. A numerical tsunami simulation method originally developed by
the Tohoku University of Japan (Imamura et. al., 1995) will be utilized to estimate tsunami heights and their
arrival times along the coast. The proposed tsunami zoning will be valuable for the efforts of tsunami
mitigation in the region.

II. Seismicity and Historical Tsunami

Java and its surrounding belong to the Sunda arc of Sunda subduction system. Seismicity in the
region is mainly controlled by the activities of Sunda subduction zone along the Java trench in the south of
Java and several local faults inland. The Benioff seismic zone dips northward beneath Java. Maximum depth
of earthquakes is about 650 km where in the depths between 300 km to 500 km there are no earthquakes
found beneath Java. Figure 1 shows shallow seismicity of the region. The earthquakes data were taken from
USGS for a period from 1981 to 2000 with focal depth less than 100 km and magnitude (Ms) greater than
5.0. The figure shows that the Indian Ocean in south of Java is characterized by high seismic activity. This
shallow earthquake activity may have potential to generate tsunamis in the future.
Although the Indian Ocean in south of Java is characterized by high shallow seismicity –
earthquakes that usually have potential to generate tsunamis – the region is not frequently attacked by
tsunami. Based on the tsunami catalogue developed by Gusiakov (2002) there were only 7 tsunamis occurred
in the region during a period from 1801 to 2000. Among them 6 tsunamis were generated by earthquakes and
1 tsunami was generated by volcanic eruption. Table 1 listed the historical tsunamis occurred in the region,
while their location are shown as closed circles in Figure 1.

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 1930

1883

1917
1815

1857
1957

1994

Figure 1. Shallow Seismicity and Historical Tsunami

Table 1. Historical Tsunami Data (Source: Gusiakov, 2002)

Date Lat. Lon. Depth Ms I Hmax Fat. Region
1815-11-22 -8 115 150 km 7 1.5 --- 10,250 Bali
1857-05-13 -8 115.5 50 km 7 2 3m --- Bali
1883-08-27 -6.1 105.4 --- --- 4.5 35 m 36,000 Krakatau *)
1917-01-21 -7.9 115.4 33 km 6.5 --- --- 15,000 North of Bali
1930-06-19 -5.6 105.3 33 km 6 --- --- --- Sunda strait
1957-09-26 -8.2 107.3 33 km 5.5 --- --- --- West Java
1994-06-02 -10.4 112.9 34 km 7.2 2.5 13.9 m 250 Banyuwangi
Note:
1. Lat., Lon., and Depth are latitude, longitude, and depth of earthquake, respectively
2. Ms is earthquake magnitude of surface wave
3. I is tsunami intensity
4. Hmax is maximum tsunami height observed inland (run-up)
5. Fat. is number of fatalities due to tsunami
6. *) is tsunami generated by volcanic eruption

According to their location only 2 tsunamis occurred in the Indian Ocean; where both of the
tsunamis – the 1957 West Java and the 1994 East Java tsunamis – were generated by earthquakes. In Sunda
strait region there were 2 tsunamis occurred; they are the 1883 Krakatau tsunami that caused by volcanic
eruption and the 1930 Sunda strait tsunami that generated by earthquake. In the north of Bali there were 3
tsunamis occurred generated by earthquakes; they occurred in 1815, 1857, and 1917. The 7 historical
tsunamis occurred in the region caused about 61,500 people killed. The destructive tsunamis were the 1815
Bali tsunami (10,250 killed), the 1883 Krakatau tsunami (36,000 killed), the 1917 Bali tsunami (15,000
killed), and the 1994 East Java tsunami (250 killed).

III. Tsunami Simulation

Study on the tsunami wave propagation modeling – often referred as tsunami simulation – was
started since the end of 1960s pioneered by Aida (1969). The tsunami simulation basically aims to calculate
the distribution of tsunami heights and their arrival times along the coastal areas. Tsunami source – the

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source that generates tsunami wave – usually is assumed as vertical deformation on the sea floor. Earthquake
faulting, volcanic eruption, and landslide in the sea can cause the deformation.
In case of tsunami generated by earthquake, the tsunami simulation needs two main inputs; they are
(a) fault parameters of the tsunami source, and (b) bathymetry of the sea floor. Fault parameters consist of
length, width, strike, dip, slip, dislocation and depth of focal earthquake that is assumed as the center of fault
plane. Length, width and strike can be estimated from the distribution of aftershocks. The dip and slip can be
estimated from focal mechanism solution, while the dislocation can be estimated from moment seismic value
and fault dimension. The estimated fault parameters are used as input to calculate vertical deformation of the
sea floor – that assumed to be the source generation of tsunami – by applying a method developed by
Mashinha and Symlie (1971).
In the numerical simulation method developed by the Tohoku University’s group (Imamura et al.,
1995), tsunami is assumed as shallow water wave where wavelength is much larger than depth of sea floor.
Some basic equations that applied in the method as follows
Continuity equation:
∂η ∂M ∂N
+ + =0 (1)
∂t ∂x ∂y
Governing equation:
∂M ∂ ⎛ M 2 ⎞ ∂ ⎛ MN ⎞ ∂η gn 2 (2)
+ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + ⎜ ⎟ + gD + M M 2 + N2 = 0
∂t ∂x ⎝ D ⎠ ∂y ⎝ D ⎠ ∂x D 7 3
∂N ∂ ⎛ MN ⎞ ∂ ⎛ N 2 ⎞ ∂η gn 2 (3)
+ ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + gD + N M 2 + N2 = 0
∂t ∂x ⎝ D ⎠ ∂y ⎝ D ⎠ ∂y D 7 3
Where x and y are space coordinates in horizontal direction, t is time , M and N are discharge in x- and y-
direction respectively, η is water elevation, D (= h + η) is total depth where h is water depth, and n is
Manning roughness coefficient. In this study the equations will be solved numerically by applying finite
different method of Leap Frog Staggered. The numerical simulation method – that was also utilized by
Puspito et al. (1999) to simulate the 1996 Biak tsunami – will be applied to simulate hypothetical tsunamis
that are assumed to occur in the south of Java.

IV. Tsunami Zoning

The study area is Java and its surrounding that is located between 104o E to 116o E, and 4o S to 12o
S. Tsunami zoning for southern-coast of Java will be developed by doing several tsunami simulations. The
predicted tsunamis are assumed to be generated by several hypothetical earthquakes that assumed to occur in
the south of Java. The tsunami zoning will be based on the predicted tsunami heights along the coastal areas.
The hypothetical earthquakes were estimated from the characteristics of shallow seismicity and
bathymetry pattern. Based on the examination of shallow seismicity and bathymetry of the sea a total of 7
hypothetical earthquakes were proposed, i.e. from S1 to S7. The hypothetical earthquakes are generally
located along the contour bathymetry of 4,000 to 5,000 meters in the north of Java trench. Their location is
estimated based on the earthquake distribution; some were located in the area of high seismicity and some
were located in the area of low seismicity. The size of earthquakes were estimated based on the maximum
size of earthquakes occurred in the region. Location of the proposed tsunami sources are shown as asterisks
or stars in Figure 2 and the physical description of hypothetical earthquakes is given in Table 2.
For the purpose of numerical tsunami simulation the study area is divided into 3 modeling areas, i.e.
modeling area A, B, and C. The size of each modeling area is 6 0 (in x-direction or longitude) x 4 0 (in y-
direction or latitude). Each of modeling area was divided into 840 x 480 blocks with ∆ x = ∆ y = 920 meters.
The modeling area A located in the area between 104 0 E to 110 0 E and 6 0 S to 10 0 S covers the western
part of Java, the modeling area B in the area between 107 0 E to 113 0 E and 7 0 S to 11 0 S covers the central
part of Java, and the modeling area C covers the eastern part of Java between 110 0 E to 116 0 E and 8 0 S to
12 0 S. Figure 2 shows the modeling area.
A total of 9 tsunami simulations were performed based on the 7 hypothetical earthquakes, 3
simulations were done in each modeling area. In the modeling area A there were 3 tsunami simulations based
on S1, S2, and S3 hypothetical earthquakes. There were 3 tsunami simulations performed in the modeling
area B based on S3, S4, and S5 hypothetical earthquakes. S5, S6, and S7 are hypothetical earthquakes that
used as tsunami sources for 3 tsunami simulations in the modeling area C. The tsunami simulation was
performed for 60 minutes with ∆ t = 1.5 seconds. Tsunami heights and their arrival times were calculated at
18 points along the coast, from P1 at Ujung Kulon in westernmost of Java to P18 at Kuta of Bali. Table 2
listed the 18 points of calculation and their location is shown in Figure 2.

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 P2
P1 P3

P4 P8

P5 P17
P6 P7 P9 P15
S1 P10
P11 P12 P13 P14
P16 P18
S2
A
S3
B S4 S5
S6
C S7

Figure 2. Sources, Points of Calculation, Modeling Areas, and Bathymetri

Table 2. The hypothetical earthquakes (tsunami sources)

No Epicenter Deph Mw Fault Parameters
strike dip ( 0 ) size (km2) dislocation
S1 105.00 E; 8.10 S 15 km 8.0 N 105 E 30 150 x 60 6.0 m
S2 106.25 E; 8.80 S 15 km 8.0 N 110 E 30 150 x 60 6.0 m
S3 108.25 E; 9.70 S 15 km 8.0 N 110 E 30 150 x 60 6.0 m
S4 109.75 E; 10.10 S 15 km 7.5 N 100 E 30 100 x 40 4.0 m
S5 11.50 E; 10.25 S 15 km 7.5 N 95 E 30 100 x 40 4.0 m
S6 113.13 E; 10.69 S 15 km 7.5 N 90 E 30 100 x 40 4.0 m
S7 115.00 E; 11.00 S 15 km 7.5 N 90 E 30 100 x 40 4.0 m

Table 3. Points of tsunami calculations

No Coordinate Geographycal No Coordinate Geographycal
Name Name
P1 105.30 E; 6.85 S Ujung Kulon P10 110.32 E; 8.06 S Parangtritis
P2 106.00 E; 6.85 S Cilangkahan P11 111.09 E; 8.28 S Pacitan
P3 106.50 E; 7.00 S Pelabuhanratu P12 111.80 E; 8.30 S Popoh
P4 106.50 E; 7.43 S Ujung Genteng P13 112.75 E; 8.46 S Pulau Sempu
P5 107.13 E; 7.50 S Sindangbarang P14 113.15 E; 8.31 S Pasirian
P6 107.83 E; 7.75 S Pameungpeuk P15 113.70 E; 8.53 S Bandealit
P7 108.66 E; 7.76 S Pangandaran P16 114.25 E; 8.63 S Grajagan
P8 109.00 E; 7.82 S Nusakambangan P17 114.43 E; 8.23 S Gilimanuk
P9 109.50 E; 7.79 S Karangbolong P18 115.14 E; 8.72 S Kuta

Figure 3 give example of the time-series of maximum tsunami height at several points. The selected
points are Ujung Kulon, Pelabuhanratu, Pangandaran, Parangtritis, Popoh, and Kuta. It can be seen from
Figure 3 that the arrival-times of maximum tsunami height vary from about 20 to 50 minutes after the
earthquake occurrence. Arrival time of 20 minutes was estimated at Ujung Kulon, while at Pangandaran the
maximum tsunami height was estimated to arrive at about 50 minutes after the earthquake occurrence.
Figure 4 show distribution of the maximum predicted tsunami heights at all of the 18 points of
calculation. It can be seen that the maximum predicted tsunami heights vary from 1.0 to 5.0 meters. The

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highest one was predicted at Pangandaran of West Java and Popoh of East Java, while the lowest one was
predicted at Nuskambangan of Central Java and Pulau Sempu of East Java.

V. Conclussion
A tsunami zoning for southern-coast of Java has been developed based on the maximum predicted
tsunami heights generated by 7 hypothetical earthquakes. The tsunami heights and their arrival times were
estimated by doing numerical tsunami simulation. From this study it can be concluded that
1. The maximum predicted tsunami heights vary from 1.0 to 5.0 meters and their arrival times vary from 20
to 50 minutes after the earthquake occurrence.
2. The highest tsunami height was predicted at Pangandaran and Popoh.
3. The lowest tsunami height was predicted at Nusakambangan and Pulau Sempu.

Figure 3a. Time-series of tsunami height at Ujung Figure 3d. Time-series of tsunami height at
Kulon caused by S1 Parangtritis caused by S4

Figure 3b. Time-series of tsunami height at Figure 3e. Time-series of tsunami height at Popoh
Pelabuhanratu caused by S1 caused by S5

Figure 3c. Time-series of tsunami height at Figure 3f. Time-series of tsunami height at Kuta
Pangandaran caused by S3 caused by S7

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 4.0 4.8
4.8
3.0
4.8
4.2
5.0 1.0
4.2

3.0

1.0

Figure 4a. Maximum Tsunami Heights in the modeling area A

4.2
5.0
4.2

3.0 4.5 5.0

1.0

1.4
1.0

Figure 4b. Maximum Tsunami Heights in the modeling area B

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 4.5 5.0

2.4
4.0
1.4 2.2
1.0
1.5

Figure 4c. Maximum Tsunami Heights in the modeling area C

Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the “Hibah Bersaing XII 2004”, a research grant provided by the Ministry of
National Education, the Republic of Indonesia.

References
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