06 Electrical power supply and utilization (economics, policy, supplies, forecasts)
05•02115 An example of innovative application in fuel cell
system development: CO2 segregation using molten
carbonate fuel cells
Lusardi, M. et al. Journal of Power Sources, 2004, 131, (1 2), 351 360.
Carbon dioxide (COo_) is one of the main causes of the greenhouse
effect and serious attention is being given to COo abatement at the
moment. In this work, the feasibility of segregating CO2 from the
exhaust of a gas turbine using a molten carbonate fuel cell system
(MCFC) is studied. In particular, different plant configurations are
simulated using a commercial code integrated with proprietary MCFC
Fortran blocks. The opportunity of an additional CO2 separation stage
downstream MCFC is also discussed. The results of the simulations are
presented and the possibility of producing electrical energy and being
able to respect Kyoto Protocol and IPCC environmental requirements
is analysed.
05•02116 Application of an experimental design
methodology for economic parameter analysis in an open
market environment
Moitre, D. eta[. Electric Power Systems Research, 2005, 73, (1), 61 66.
Statistical data analysis, through the utilization of experimental design,
is a powerful tool commonly used in different areas where uncertainty
is a problem, and a great amount of data is available for the analysis.
After 10 years of open market experience, the data recorded during the
last decade from the electric markets suggest that experimental design
can be useful for electrical market data analysis. In this paper, the
impact of different factors on the determination of economic
parameters such as the spot price in an electric market is analysed.
The analysis is based on the experimental design methodology. The
implementation of the proposed methodology is illustrated using
simple examples from the Argentinean electric market.
05102117 Bidding price analysis for competitive generators
and large consumers
Wei, P. et al. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy
Systems, 2005, 27, (3), 169 176.
We present a new method to analyse the bidding price of each
participant (power suppliers and large consumers) in a pay-as-bid
market. The bidding price will be decomposed into a variety of
components corresponding to five factors, such as the incremental
values of the subject bidder's generation on the system operational
costs, on the income or payment of other bidders, and on the binding
tradable constraints, and the first-order approximation of the sub-
jective participant's bidding price. From an economic viewpoint, each
component provides useful information for participants to design the
strategic planning. The advantages of the method include that the
decomposition is well defined without assumptions and that each
decomposition term has its own economical and/or engineering
meaning. The proposed method is numerically verified through
computer simulations on a three-bus example system and a modified
IEEE 30-bus power system with both generator and large consumer
bidding.
05102118 Big markets, big challenges: Minimising risk by
professional implementation of rural electrification projects
G6lz, S. Refocus, 2005, 6, (1), 42 44.
Rural electrification projects are successful only when social factors
such as income and background knowledge of the users, culturally
appropriate financing models and maintenance by local technicians are
taken into account. This article describes experience gained in this area
by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE.
05102119 Biomass energy used in a sawmill
Dowaki, K. and Mori, S. Applied Energy, 2005, 80, (3), 327 339.
Biomass-energy systems are considered to be environmentally superior
to traditional ones from the viewpoints of the CO2 mitigation and the
effective utilization of resources. However, the energy cost of these
systems tends to be higher than that of conventional fossil-fuel systems.
Furthermore, the establishment of environmental business models is
expected in the near future. In this paper, the environmental
improvement and the economics of a biomass-energy system in a
sawmill are analysed by a comparison of a gasification-cogeneration
system with a direct-combustion system using scrap-wood material as
feedstock fuel. Especially, the break-even point for marketability of the
business taking the surplus electric-power into consideration is
estimated under the assumption of a renewable-energy purchase
system, such as the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) implemented
in Japan. Consequently, when biomass-related subsidies are applied,
the break-even point of the purchase price of the electric power from
the gasification cogeneration becomes 7.7 ~ 35.7 yen/kW h.
Furthermore, if the construction cost decreases by 10%, the break-
even point of the purchase price will be cheaper by about 7.4 yen/kW h.
312 Fuel and Energy Abstracts September 2005
05•02120 Distributed generation: definition, benefits and
issues
Pepermans, G. et al. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (6), 787 798.
This paper starts from the observation that there is a renewed interest
in small-scale electricity generation. The authors start with a survey of
existing small-scale generation technologies and then move on with a
discussion of the major benefits and issues of small-scale electricity
generation. Different technologies are evaluated in terms of their
possible contribution to the listed benefits and issues. Small-scale
generation is also commonly called distributed generation, embedded
generation or decentralized generation. In a final section, an attempt is
made to define the latter concepts more precisely. It appears that there
is no consensus on a precise definition as the concept encompasses
many technologies and applications.
05102121 Effect of temperature on short term load
forecasting using an integrated ANN
Satish, B. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2004, 72, (1), 95 101.
An integrated Artificial Neural~ Network (ANN) approach to Short-
Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is proposed in this paper. Four
modules consisting of the Basic ANN, Peak and Valley ANN, Averager
and Forecaster and Adaptive Combiner form the integrated method
for load forecasting. The Basic ANN uses the historical data of load
and temperature to predict the next 24 h load, while the Peak and
Valley ANN uses the past peak and valley data of load and
temperatures, respectively. The Averager captures the average vari-
ation of the load from the previous load behaviour, while the adaptive
combiner uses the weighted combination of outputs from the Basic
ANN and the Forecaster, to forecast the final load. The regression
based and time series methods are conceptually incorporated into the
ANN to obtain an integrated load forecasting approach.
05102122 Electricity market price spike forecast with data
mining techniques
Lu, X. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2005, 73, (1), 19 29.
Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task
for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity
and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile
and normally carry with spikes, which may be tens or even hundreds of
times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very
difficult to be predicted. So far, most of the research on electricity price
forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper
proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework,
which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The
normal price can be predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and
neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted
based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike
prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the
measurement of a proposed composite supply demand balance index
(SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to
reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply
and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a
mining database including market clearing price, trading hour,
electricity demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classifi-
cation and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the
database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price
spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the
price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate
forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence
level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data
with promising results.
05/02123 Evolutionary programming techniques for
different kinds of economic dispatch problems
Jayabarathi, T. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2005, 73, (2),
169 176.
This paper is aimed at exploring the performance of the different
evolutionary programming (EP) techniques for all kinds of economic
dispatch (ED) problems. The three EP techniques considered here
differ in the kind of mutation they use: Gaussian, Cauchy and
combined Gaussian Cauchy mutation. The kinds of problems tested
are: ED of generators with prohibited operating zones (POZ), ED of
generators with piecewise quadratic cost functions (PQCF), combined
economic environmental dispatch (CEED) and multi-area economic
dispatch (MAED). The three EP techniques have been developed in
Matlab 6.5 and numerical examples typical to each kind of ED have
been tested. The simulation results are compared and discussed to
show the relative performances of the different EP techniques.
05•02124 Forecasting method study on chaotic load series
with high embedded dimension
Jiang, C. and Li, T. Energy Conversion and Management, 2005, 46, (5),
667 676.