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Ep Weekly 5 Jan
Ep Weekly 5 Jan
January 5th
Thomas Aarrestad
+47 22 87 87 21
thomas.aarrestad@pareto.no
These recommendations were not presented to the issuers before dissemination.
The analyst has assisted the corporate department relating financial services to PA Resources, Questerre,
Norse Energy, Interoil, Altinex, Heritage and Pertra the previous 12 months
Pareto and the analyst accept no responsibility and expressively disclaim any and all liabilities for any and all
losses related to investments caused by or motivated by Recommendations from Pareto. Any person
receiving a Recommendation from Pareto is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer. The disclaimer shall
apply even if an Investment Recommendation is shown to be erroneous or incomplete or based upon
incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions by Pareto, and irrespective of
whether Pareto or any person related to Pareto can be blamed for the incident.
For further disclosures on relevant definitions, methods, risks, potential conflicts of interest etc. and
disclaimers please see www.pareto.no
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Summary • Oil price down 8%
– WTI 2012 contract $60/bbl
EV/Risked Valuation(II)/(III)*) – WTI Spot $56/bbl
2.0 – S&P500 E&P Index -6%
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*) Valuation excl./incl. exploration portfolio
Share price performance (as of 04.01.2007)
Change in % (All shareprices in USD) Main movements last week
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% • US E&P’s down on oil price fall
– US E&P Index -5.6%
Norsk Hydro
– WTI Spot -8.2%
PA Resources
– WTI 2012 -6.8%
Questerre
– US Spot Natural Gas -1.4%
Lundin
ENI
• Norwegian Independents followed down
Pertra except Pertra
Trefoil – Pertra +1.5%
Pareto Norway E&P Index – Questerre -7.7%
Revus Energy – PA Resources -11.9%
Heritage
BP • Hydro discount to Statoil spreaded out
Repsol – NHY -6.9%
DNO – STL -5.6%
Interoil
Norse Energy • Current best recommendations
Altinex – Pertra*) & Revus – license round
S&P Majors E&P % las t cale ndar m onth due mid-January expected to have
% las t w e e k substantial effect particulalry for
WTI, 2012 Delivery these two companies
Statoil – Trefoil*) – attractive risk/reward and
WTI Spot underperformance
S&P Independent E&P
Natural Gas, Henry Hub
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*) Pareto was advisor in 2005/2006 transactions
in these companies
2006 performance
Change in % (All shareprices in USD)
Questerre
Altinex
PA Resources
Heritage
Interoil
Pertra
Norsk Hydro
S&P Majors E&P
Norse Energy
ENI
Pareto Norway E&P Index
Repsol
Revus Energy
Trefoil
Statoil
WTI, 2012 Delivery
Lundin % 2006
BP
S&P Independent E&P
WTI Spot
DNO
Natural Gas, Henry Hub 5
News Flow
Date Com pany Activity Valuation
Cons e que nce *)
11th December QEC Beaver River w ell (A -7) w ith gas kicks & show s during drilling Results expected late December, test rate February
11th December IOX Colombia exploration w ell at 600 bbl/day vs ~100 bbl/day expected Potential f or some 1 mill bbl reserve upgrade (NOK 2.5)
13th December DNO Spudded Zita exploration w ell Norw egian Sea (Hydro-operated) Unrisked potential 60 mill bbl (NOK 1.2). Results due January/February
15th December QEC Conf irmation Gentilly #1 gas discovery in tw o zones Conf irmation of reserve valuation
19th December PERTRA PL 349 (5%) relinquished to government due to lack of prospects No valuation eff ect
22nd December DNO Goliat w est exploration w ell dry Reduced upside potential of field (NOK (0.9)
22nd December PERTRA Sold 15% of PL 321 exploration license to AKER exploration Payment in f orm of 2 w ells paid by Aker. Little valuation ef fect
28th December DNO Increased PSA ow nership Kurdistan f rom 40% to 55% Increased value potential (NOK 0.8)
28th December DNO Dry exploration w ell 2nd prospect in Kurdistan, Khanke #1 Limited valuation ef f ect
28th December DNO Tasour #23ST exploration w ell dry Limited valuation ef f ect
28th December DNO Hekma #1 exploration w ell (sharyoof Area) tested 800 bbl/day Potential f or 1-2 mill bbl (NOK 0.2)
2nd January DNO Taw ke #4 production w ell tested 8,500 bbl/day Strong rate. Increased valuation by NOK 0.5
3rd January IOX Colombia exploration w ell 450 bbl/day vs ~100 bbl/day Increased valuation (NOK 3)
4th January PERTRA Decision to drill Midgard West prospect in Q407 50 mill boe potential, or NOK 35 per share if discovery
January Aw ards of licenses in mature areas Potentially big impact f or several comp., particularly PERTRA and REV US
January TREF 4Q production update + company 2007 production target Expect 4Q production of close to 5,000 bbl/day
January/February HOC Results deep zone at Kingf isher #1 Potential 100 mmbbl net (USD 20)
January/February NEC Expect IBA MA license f or Manati start-up Conf irmation of reserve valuation (NOK 0.1)
February/March QEC Results f rom A-7 Development w ell Beaver River Partially prove up f ield potential (NOK 11)
February/March QEC Results f rom Gentilly #1 (Quebec) 25 mill boe potential (NOK 5)
1Q NEC Start-up of 3-4 w ell exploration program off shore Brazil Potential 20 mill bbl per w ell (NOK 0.5) Inf o first w ell expected 1Q/2Q
1Q A LX Results new production w ell Brage Conf irmation of Risked Valuation expected
Source: company information and Pareto assessment 6
*) All valuations NOK per share. All numbers represent value potential in excess of current risked valuation
WTI future curve down $5-6/bbl
66
64
USD/bbl
62
60
58
56 W TI 14/12/06 W TI 05/01/06
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Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
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Risked Valuation Summary Changes to Valuation /
05-Jan-07 Share price Ne t Cas h Producing & Dis cove rie s & Exploration Total Ente rpris e value / Relative Pricing
Value pe r s hare (NOK) (De bt) De cide d Incre as e d (III) Ris k e d V aluation
at 31.12.2006E De ve lope d (I) Re cove ry (II) I II III
Re vus Ene rgy (REV US) 53 10 21 85 67 26% BUY Signif icant value increases ahead as reserves mature
Target price equals EV /RV (II) 2.3x on expectation of license aw ards January
DNO (DNO) 11.5 5 11 19 14.0 22% BUY Large potential f or reserve increases Iraq and Norw ay
Expect more good new s f rom Iraq. Target price equals EV /RV (II) 1.4x
Que s te rre (QEC) 6.7 1.5 12.6 15.5 12.0 79% STRONG BUY Current valuation (EV /RV (II) 0.5x), large expl. Upside
Expect valuation to incr. to (0.9x) on approaching new s on BR and Quebec
Nors e Ene rgy (NEC) 3.9 5.6 8.2 10.1 6.3 60% BUY Low current valuation (EV /RV (II) 0.8x) and sign. expl. upside
Expect improved valuation (1.1x) as Brazil f ields mature
Tre foil (TREF) 46 44 82 100 90 98% STRONG BUY Low current valuation (EV /RV (II) 0.6x)
Risked valuation and pricing to improve (1.1x) on production increase
Inte roil (IOX) 43 55 64 139 65 52% BUY Low valuation (EV /RV (II) 1.0x)
Target ref lecting the huge upside in A ngola (EV /RV (II) 1.3x)
Altine x (ALX) 1.10 1.83 2.15 2.96 1.75 59% BUY Moderate valuation (EV /RV (II) 0.9x)
Expects valuation to improve to (EV /RV (II) 1.1x)
He ritage (HOC) 25 13 18 49 30 22% BUY Low current valuation (EV /RV (II) 1.2x) and (EV /RV (III) 0.5x)
Target price equals EV /RV (II) 1.4x on near term Uganda expl. new s
Pe rtra (PERTRA) 66 2 32 102 100 52% BUY Low current valuation (EV /RV (II) 1.4x) and (EV /RV (III) 0.4x)
Target price equals EV /RV (II) 2.4x on expectation of license aw ards January
*) Share price target on ”Best Judgement” basis. In principle it can be interpreted as combination of:
1) Risked valuation in 12 months time (i.e. Current risked valuation + 10%), and 9
2) estimate of future relative pricing. Oil price assumptions assumed unchanged
Key Figures E&P Independents
Brent oil price assumption as basis for earnings estimates - 2006: USD 65/boe, 2007: USD 65/boe, 2008: USD 55/boe
EBIDA def ined as operating prof it + associated companies + depreciation - income tax
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Operational Figures E&P Independents
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Key Figures Larger E&P Companies
Brent oil price assumption as basis f or earnings estimates - 2006: USD 65/bbl, 2007: USD 65/bbl, 2008: USD 55/bbl
EBIDA def ined as operating prof it + associated companies + depreciation - income tax
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Operational Figures Larger E&P Companies
Statoil 4,295 41% 10.1 1,167,000 60% 1,140,000 60% 1,300,000 56% 5.0%
Norsk Hydro 2,046 42% 10.0 563,000 71% 570,000 68% 605,000 67% 4.4%
ENI 6,837 55% 10.8 1,737,000 64% 1,750,000 61% 1,785,000 61% 1.6%
Repsol 3,328 35% 8.0 1,139,400 47% 1,100,000 43% 1,150,000 42% 1.7%
BP 18,163 53% 12.4 4,014,000 64% 3,950,000 63% 4,110,000 62% 1.8%
Talisman 1,700 43% 9.9 470,000 53% 493,000 54% 485,000 54% 4.1%
Ave rage 45% 10.2 60% 58% 57% 3.1%
Reserves as of 31.12.05
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Company Business Descriptions
Com pany Bus ine s s De s cription
Statoil (STL) Integrated oil & gas company engaged in exploration and production in 15 countries and accounting f or 60% of all Norw egian petroleum production
Proven reserves of 4.3 bn boe at end of 2005 and production of 1.2 mmboe / day in 2005 (15% outside of Norw ay)
Nors k Hydro (NHY) Integrated oil & gas company operating 13 oil & gas installations, proven reserves of 2.0 bn boe at end of 2005 and production of 563,000 boe / day in 2005
World's third largest integrated aluminium supplier w ith a presence on every continent and a production of 1.8m tonnes of primary aluminium in 2005
Re vus Ene rgy (REV US) Pure play Norw egian E&P company f ocusing on the North Sea w ith P1+P2 reserves of 33 mmboe (11 mmboe in producing f ields and 45 mmobe in discoveries)
Production f rom 3 f ields (non-operated), 3 discoveries to be developed and 18 exploration licenses close to existing f ields and inf rastructure
DNO (DNO) Exploration f ocused E&P company w ith production in Norw ay and Y emen w ith P1+P2 reserves of 100 mmboe, of w hich 55% in Yemen and 45% in Norw ay
Signif icant exploration activities in Norw ay, UK, Y emen, Iraq, Equatorial Guinea and Mozambique
PA Re s ource s (PAR) Production-f ocused E&P company w ith main activities in Tunisia as w ell as on the NCS and in Eq. Guinea w ith P1+P2 reserves of 118 mmboe (mainly Tunisia)
Production dominated by the large Didon f ield of f shore Tunisia. To be balanced by V olve (Norw ay) and Elyssa (Tunisia) f rom 2007
Que s te rre (QEC) Calgary-based independent exploration and production company actively developing an onshore portf olio of oil & gas assets in Canada
Currently producing around 500 boe / day f rom several f ields in A lberta. To reach 2,000 boe / day prod / behind pipe by end 2006
Nors e Ene rgy (NEC) Diversif ied independent w ith exploration and production activities in US (onshore) and Brasil (of f shore) w ith P1+P2 reserves of 38 mmboe (mainly Brasil)
Production f rom 1 f ield in Brasil and 1 region in the US - aim to increase sharply f rom new f ields Brasil and more drilling in the US
Tre foil (TREF) Exploration and production company f ocused on acquisition and development of neglected f ields onshore A rgentina w ith current production of 3,000 boe / day
P1+P2 Reserves of 14.8 mmboe solely f rom Chanares Herrados f ield - aim to increase production to 13,000 boe / day by 2008
Inte roil (INOX) Independent f ocused on activities in Latin A merica (onshore) and West A f rica (of f shore) w ith P1+P2 reserves of 16 mmboe (mainly Peru)
Production in Peru and Colombia, currently grow ing strongly f rom 2,500 boe / day in 2005 to 3,600 boe / day in May 2006
Altine x (ALX) Focused on exploration and production w ith key activities on the NCS, Denmark, UK and Oman w ith P1+P2 reserves of 30 mmboe (mainly North Sea)
Expected production of 12,500 boe / day post acquisition of Denerco Oil - signif icant exploration portf olio located on the NCS, UK and Oman
He ritage (HOC) Exploration f ocused E&P company w ith operations in Russia, A f rica and the Middle East w ith P1+P2 reserves of 72 mmboe (mainly in Russia)
Current producing in Oman. Recently sold assets in Congo f or ~$30m - expected start-up of West Chumpass f ield in Russia late 2006
Pe rtra (PERTRA) Exploration f ocused E&P company w ith f ocus on Norw ay. A ssets in both North Sea and Norw egian Sea, w ith reserves of 31 mill bbl, of w hich 5 is P1+P2
Production currently ~900 bbl/day, to increase to 4,700 in 2009 and 8,500 in 2010. 12 exploration w ells to be drilled (rigs secured), expect to f ind 100 mill bbl
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Liquidity & Ownership
Com pany Fre e Com m e ntary
Float
Statoil (STL) 29% 71% held by the Norw egian State through the Ministry of Petroleum & Energy, f ree f loat predominantly held by US, UK and domestic institutions
Trading volumes f airly stable last 12 months - average monthly turnover of 15-20% of shares outstanding (~50% of f ree f loat)
Nors k Hydro (NHY) 55% 45% held by the Norw egian State through the Ministry of Trade & Industry free f loat predominantly held by domestic, US and UK institutions
Trading volumes f airly stable last 12 months - average monthly turnover of approx 15% of shares outstanding (~30% of free f loat)
Re vus Ene rgy (REVUS) 87% Some 13% of share held by insiders; more than 60% held by top 20 shareholders
Trading volumes dow n since listing in June 2005 - average monthly turnover last 3 months of approx 15% of shares outstanding
DNO (DNO) 96% Register dominanted by Norw egian institutional investors; 4% held by Berge Gerdt Larsen and some 35% held by top 20 shareholders
V ery strong liquidity w ith average monthly turnover last 12 months of some 150% of shares outstanding
PA Re s ource s (PAR) 81% Insiders controlling almost 20% including some 8% held by Mr Haudemann-Andersen
Trading volumes slightly dow n over last 12 months - average monthly turnover last 3 months of approx 20% of shares outstanding
Que s te rre (QEC) 78% Some 22% held by insiders and appox 53% of shares held by Norw egian investors (equivalent to almost 70% of f ree f loat)
Strong liquidity w ith volumes up since OSE listing in June 2005 - average monthly turnover last 3 months of ~100% of shares outstanding
Nors e Ene rgy (NEC) 77% Register dominated by private investors w ith insiders controlling almost 25%, including 18% held by the Eitzen Group
Good liquidity w ith volumes slightly up over last 12 months - average monthly turnover last 3 months of approx 50% of shares outstanding
Tre foil (TREF) 75% Register dominated by institutional investors w ith almost 90% held by top 30 shareholders; 22.6% held by Smedvig Capital
Relatively low liquidity w ith average monthly turnover since listing in December 2005 of approx 10% of free f loat
Inte roil (INOX) 47% Register dominated by insiders (Mr Rød and Mr Perucci controls more than 50%) and institutional investors
Relatively poor liquidity since listing on the OTC in October 2005 w ith inf requent trading
Altine x (ALX) 83% Register dominated by private investors w ith insiders controlling some 17%, including ~14% held by chairman Brian Jepsen
Strong liquidity w ith average monthly turnover last 12 months of approx 100% of shares outstanding
Pe rtra (PERTRA) 78% 22 held% by Management and Board members. Remaining held by Norw egian and Intl' funds, as w ell as private persons
Liquidity preliminary limited as the share is currently traded OTC. Expect listing early November
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