STAT 1012 Statistics for Life Sciences

Tutorial 2 --- Probability

1) Definition and Notations:

Sample space: It is the set of all possible outcomes, often denoted as Ω.

Outcome: It is a possible type of occurrence.

Event: It is any set of outcomes of interest. (A subset of sample space).

Probability (of an event):

!"#$%& () ("*+(#%, -. %/%.* 0
Pr(E) = .
!"#$%& () ("*+(#%, -. *1% ,2#34% ,32+%

The probability of an event E, denoted by Pr(E), always lies between 0 and 1.

Union: We denote A∪B as the event that Event that either A or B occurs, or they both occur.

Intersection: We denote A∩B as the event that both A and B would occur.

Complement: We denote 𝐴+ as the event that A does not occur.

2) Probability Theory:
• Mutually Exclusive Events:

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if A and B cannot happen at the same time.

Property: 1) A∩B is empty, or Pr(A∩B) = 0 when A and B are mutually exclusive.

2) Pr(A∪B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) when A and B are mutually exclusive.

• Addition Law of Probability:

Pr(A∪B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) - Pr(A∩B).

• Independence:
- Two events A and B are independent if and only if Pr(A∩B) = Pr(A) Pr(B).
Events A and B are dependent if Pr(A∩B) ≠ Pr(A) Pr(B).

If A and B are independent, then

1) A and 𝐵+ are independent;
2) 𝐴+ and B are independent;
3) 𝐴+ and 𝐵+ are independent.

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- Mutual independence: Every event is independent of any intersection of the other events.

𝐴,𝐵,𝐶 are mutually independent if

P(A∩B∩C)=P(A)P(B)P(C)
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)
P(B∩C)=P(B)P(C)
- Pairwise independence: Any two events are independent.

𝐴,𝐵,C are pairwise independent if

P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)
𝑃(𝐵∩𝐶)=𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶)
• Multiplication Law of Probability:

If A1, A2 ,…, Ak are mutually independent events, then

Pr(A1∩A2∩ … ∩Ak) = Pr(A1) ⨉Pr(A2)⨉…⨉Pr(Ak)

3) Conditional Probability:

The conditional probability of B given A, Pr(B|A), is

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Pr(B|A) = or Pr(A∩B) = Pr(B|A) Pr(A).
!"($)

Relationship to Independence: Independence means Pr(A)Pr(B) = Pr(A∩B), together with definition of

conditional probability, Pr(A∩B) = Pr(B|A) Pr(A), we have Pr(B) = Pr(B|A) if A and B are independent.

Relative Risk:

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Definition: The relative risk (RR) of B given A is RR(B|A) = :
567B8A 9

That is, it compares how likely B would occur, on condition that A or 𝐴+ has occurred.

Total Probability Rule:

Pr(B) = Pr(B|A)Pr(A) + Pr(B|𝐴+ )Pr(𝐴+ ).

Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive Events:

A set of events 𝐴! , … , 𝐴" are exhaustive if at least one of the events must occur. i.e. 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐴𝑘 = Ω.

Events 𝐴! , … , 𝐴" are mutually exclusive and exhaustive:

1) At least one of the events 𝐴! , … , 𝐴" must occur, and

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 2) two events cannot occur simultaneously. That is, exactly one events from 𝐴! , … , 𝐴" must occur.

Generalized Total Probability Rule:

Let 𝐴; , 𝐴< , … , 𝐴= be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. For any event B,
=

Pr(𝐵) = @ Pr(𝐵|𝐴- ) × Pr(𝐴- ) .

->;

4) Supplementary Exercises:

1. If A and B are mutually exclusive and independent, with Pr(A)>0, what is the probability of B?

Hint: mutually exclusive ð Pr(A∩B) = 0; independent ð Pr(A∩B) = Pr(A)Pr(B)

2. If Pr(A) = 0.7, Pr(B) = 0.6, can they be mutually exclusive? Why?

Hint: If A and B are mutually exclusive, then Pr(A∪B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)

3. Suppose we roll two dice, let A be the event that the first die gives an odd number, B be the event that the
second die gives an even number, C be the event that the sum of the two dice is even.

(a) Are events A and C independent?

Hint:

i. A and B are independent.

ii. Check if Pr(A∩C) = Pr(A) Pr(C)
iii. Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(C) = Pr(sum of the two dice is even) = Pr(sum of the two dice is odd) = 0.5
iv. Pr(A∩C) = Pr(A∩ 𝐵+ ) = Pr(A) Pr(𝐵+ )

(b) Express C by A and B based on relationships such as union, intersection and complement.

Hint: C = {the sum of the two dice is even} = {the two dice both give odd numbers}∪{the two dice both
give even numbers} = (A∩ 𝐵+ ) ∪(𝐴+ ∩B)

4. Bill and George go target shooting together. Both shoot at a target at the same time. Suppose Bill hits the

target with probability 0.7, while George, independently, hits the target with probability 0.4.

Note B = {Bill hits the target}, G = {George hits the target}

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(a) Given that exactly one shot hit the target, what is the probability that it was George’s shot?
Hint: A = {exactly one shot hit} = {Bill hits and George misses}∪{Bill misses and George hits}
Pr(George hit | exactly one shot hit) = Pr(George hit and Bill misses) / [ Pr(George hit and Bill misses)+
Pr(George misses and Bill hit)]

(b) Given that the target is hit, what is the probability that George hit it?

Hint: Pr(George hit | target is hit) = Pr(George hit) / [ 1-Pr(both misses) ]

5. Suppose the genotypes of the grandparents are as follows:

How likely their grandchild has phenotype B?

Hint: Pr(Grandchild has phenotype B) = Pr( 𝐵 & 𝑂' ∪ 𝐵 & 𝐵' ∪ 𝐵' 𝑂 & )

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 STAT 1012 Statistics for Life Sciences

Tutorial 2 --- Probability (Solutions)

1.Pr(B) = 0

2.Pr(A∩B) = Pr(A)+Pr(B)-Pr(A∪B)

= 0.7+0.6-Pr(A∪B)

≥ 0.7+0.6-1 = 0.3 > 0 which means that A and B cannot be mutually exclusive.

3.(a) A and C are independent

(b) C = (A∩ 𝐵+ ) ∪(𝐴+ ∩B)

4. (a) Pr(George hit | exactly one shot hit) = Pr(George hit and Bill misses) / [ Pr(George hit and Bill misses)+
Pr(George misses and Bill hit)] = (0.4)(0.3)/[(0.4)(0.3)+(0.6)(0.7)] = 12/54=2/9.

𝑃𝑟(𝐺 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃𝑟(𝐵) × 𝑃𝑟(𝐺) = 0.4 × 0.7 = 0.28

𝑃𝑟(𝐵 ∪ 𝐺) = 𝑃𝑟(𝐵) + 𝑃𝑟(𝐺) − 𝑃𝑟(𝐺 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 + 0.7 − 0.28 = 0.82

𝑃𝑟(𝐴) = 𝑃𝑟(𝐵 ∩ 𝐺 + ) + 𝑃𝑟(𝐺 ∩ 𝐵+ ) = 0.7 × 0.6 + 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.54
𝑃𝑟(𝐺 ∩ 𝐵+ ) 0.3 × 0.4 2
Pr(G ∩ 𝐵+ |A) = = =
𝑃𝑟(𝐴) 0.54 9

b) Pr(George hit | target is hit) = Pr(George hit) / [ 1-Pr(both misses) ] = 0.4/(1-0.6*0.3) = 20/41.

𝑃𝑟(𝐺) 𝑃𝑟(𝐺) 0.4 20

𝑃𝑟(𝐺|𝐵 ∪ 𝐺) = = = =
𝑃𝑟(𝐵 ∪ 𝐺) 𝑃𝑟(𝐵 ∪ 𝐺) 0.82 41

5.