5QQMN938 – Intermediate Econometrics

Assessment 1 – Forecasting Project

(40% of total module grade)
Lead Instructor: Jack Fosten Instructor’s email: jack.fosten@kcl.ac.uk

Submission via KEATS by 10:00 Submission checklist 1. File saved as

Deadline: on 20th February [ModuleCode_CandidateNumber]
2023. 2. Submission to include cover
sheet, assessment and appendix.
Details to follow in assessment
brief. File format for submission:
.pdf

The Task
This is a forecasting project where each student will be assigned a different variable to analyse and
forecast. The details of the task will be released on Tuesday 14th February 2023 at 6pm.

Module Learning Outcomes Assessed (see Module Outline)

2. To build econometric models which are used for forecasting and policymaking, and assess their
performance and limitations;
3. To apply econometric models to real-world data, and to express the meaning of econometric
results to a wider audience;
4. To build practical and transferable computing skills using the programme Stata

Assignment Details and Structure

The details of the task will be released on Tuesday 14th February 2023 at 6pm.

General Submission Requirements

Assessment submission instructions:

1. File saved as [ModuleCode_CandidateNumber]

2. Submission to include cover sheet, assessment and appendix. Details to follow in assessment brief.
3. File format for submission: .pdf)
Assessment Support Information
There are many formative feedback opportunities built into this module:

• Knowledge-checking through quiz questions in workshops and online lecture material with instant
feedback
• Past exam practice in workshops with opportunities to suggest answers and receive feedback
• Automated feedback though interactive video tutorial solutions
• Encouragement to ask questions during workshops and tutorials to obtain feedback on answers
• Verbal feedback in office hours

Marking Criteria

Level 5
Grade A++ All Levels Outstanding, well written and creative answer. Highly structured & informed,
First showing striking analytical skills, ability to find the correct solution to new
90-100 questions, creative thinking and/or personal insight and originality
Analysis Full ability to apply the methodologies of the course to describe data using original
insights and context drawn from reading outside of the course material.
Econometric Comprehensive understanding of the areas covered in the course. Econometric
Modelling models are analysed and critiqued very rigorously with clear demonstration of original
thought.
Forecasting Mastery of the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models and a
striking ability to explain forecasts using knowledge and context which clearly extends
beyond that of the course material.
Presentation Presentation and communication are excellent, highly innovative and professional.
Discussion is extremely concise, logical and highly effective.
Grade A+ All Levels Highly thoughtful, creative and correct answers, showing clarity of thought,
First striking analytical skills, and critical approach when required.
80-89 Analysis Full ability to apply the methodologies of the course to describe data with some
evidence of original insights and context drawn from outside of the course material.
Econometric Thorough understanding of the areas covered in the course. Econometric models are
Modelling analysed and critiqued rigorously with some demonstration of original thought.
Forecasting Very strong ability in the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models
and a very strong ability to explain forecasts attempting to use knowledge and context
extending beyond that of the course material.
Presentation Presentation and communication are very clear, with hints of innovation and
professionalism. Discussion is very concise and effective.
Grade A All levels Thoughtful and correct answers, well presented, showing mastery of methods
First reviewed in class.
70-79 Analysis Very good ability to apply the methodologies of the course to describe data based on
things seen in the course with hints of outside context.
Econometric Thorough understanding of the areas covered in the course. Econometric models are
Modelling analysed and critiqued very competently drawing on course material.
Forecasting Very good ability in the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models
and a strong ability to explain forecasts using arguments seen in the course material
with hints of outside context.
Presentation Presentation and communication are very good; clear and easy to follow. Discussion is
concise and clear.
Grade B All Levels Good understanding of methods reviewed in class, with a coherent and logical
Upper 2nd argument
60-69 Analysis Generally good ability to apply the methodologies of the course to describe data with
some minor mistakes.
Econometric Good understanding of the areas covered in the course. Econometric models are
Modelling analysed well and there is some critique shown, with only minor mistakes.
Forecasting Good ability in the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models and a
fair ability to explain forecasts using arguments seen in the course material. Any
mistakes are minor.
Presentation Presentation and communication are generally good and easy to follow. Discussion is
generally concise with small areas which could be more effective.
Grade C All Levels Sound understanding demonstrated with overall correct analysis
Lower 2nd Analysis Ability is shown in applying the methodologies of the course to describe data, but there
50-59 are mistakes in analysis and/or description
 Level 5
Econometric Sound understanding of the areas covered in the course. Some more major mistakes
Modelling in analysing and discussing econometric models but generally sound.
Forecasting Some good ability in the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models
and explaining forecasts using arguments seen in the course material. However, there
are some major mistakes.
Presentation Presentation and communication are basic, and parts are not easy to follow.
Discussion is not very concise and could be more effective.
Grade D All Levels Basic understanding of main issues
Third Analysis Some limited ability is shown in applying the methodologies of the course to describe
40-49 data but there are major and frequent mistakes in analysis and/or description.
Econometric General knowledge of the areas covered in the course but there are major mistakes in
Modelling analysing econometric models.
Forecasting Some ability in the subject shown in making forecasts using econometric models
explaining but some lack of knowledge of the course material. There are some major
inaccuracies.
Presentation Presentation and communication are very basic with parts that are difficult to follow.
Discussion is not concise and is hard to follow.
Grade F + All Levels Unsystematic incomplete and / or inaccurate FAIL.
Fail Analysis
33-39
Econometric Some general knowledge of the areas covered, but the course objectives are not met
Modelling in analysing data / using econometric models / forecasting.
Forecasting
Presentation Disorganised and unclear presentation which is very basic with parts that are very
difficult to follow.
Grade F All Levels Unsystematic incomplete and / or inaccurate, FAIL.
Fail Analysis
20-32
Econometric Very little knowledge of the course material. Lack of answers. Inability to correctly
Modelling analyse data / use econometric models / forecast.
Forecasting
Presentation Poor presentation, spelling and grammatical errors, messy, incomplete
Grade FF All Levels Unsystematic incomplete and / or inaccurate, FAIL.
Fail Analysis
0-19
Econometric Lack of understanding of any topics. Very substantial and serious confusions in
Modelling analysing data / using econometric models / forecasting.
Forecasting
Presentation Very poor presentation, poor spelling and grammar, lacks structure and incomplete.