SOPY 3005 - Lecture 02

Hong Kong Baptist University
Department of Social Work
SOPY 3005
Diversity and Social Structure of Modern States
Lecture 2
Population and Demographic Structure
14 Sep 2018
Dr. CHAN Bing-Kwan
SOPY 3005-Lecture 3 1
1. Population & demography
1.1 What is population?
Population is a group of people staying in a society.
1.2 Demography: the study of human population

Composition of population (demographic structure)
• Distribution of age, gender, races, etc
Change in population size
• Increase (population growth) or decrease (population shrinkage)
• Fertility: the number of children that the average woman bears.
• Mortality: annual number of death per 1000 population.
• Migration: the number of people moving into or out of a country.
Causes of population change

• Culture, education, class, income, fiscal conditions.
Effects of population change
• Food, housing, education and labour market and economy
Control of population
• How the growth and composition of population may be controlled
Henslin 2009:394-406
2. Change in population size
2.1 Fertility
2.1.1 Definition
Fertility is the incidence of childbearing in a society’s population.
2.1.2 Measurement
Fertility is usually measured by crude birth rate that is the number
of live births in a given year for every 1000 people in a population.
No. of live births in a year
Crude birth rate = X 1000
The society’s total population
• The word “crude” is used here because this is just a rough

measurement which is based on the total population, not just the
women in their childbearing years. It also ignores the difference
among various groups in the society.
• Though it is a rough measurement, it is easy to calculate and allow
rough comparison of fertility across various countries.
Macionis 2008: 574
2.1.3 Factors affecting fertility
• Although a woman is able to bear more than 20 children in her life, the
actual childbearing is limited by various factors such as cultural,
norms, finances and personal choice.
• Fertility is also influenced by the age of first marriage and
opportunities available to women. Thus, different categories of people
in the same society may have different fertility.
憂經濟中產唔敢生
港人遲婚又不願生育，有調查發現50％
Social structure matters ! 適齡人士因經濟條件影響生育決定。80
後未婚少女指養兒育女如燒錢
Sky Post 25 Feb 2014
Crude birth rate : number of live births per 1000 population

Year 2000 2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mainland
14.0 13.4 12.9 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 -
China
Hong Kong 8.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.6 10.2 11.3 11.8 12.6
Source: Website of Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Macionis 2008: 574
2.2 Mortality
2.2.1 Definition
Mortality is the incidence of death in a society’s population.
2.2.2 Crude death rate

Mortality is usually measured by crude death rate that is the number of
deaths in a given year for every 1000 people in a population.
Crude death rate = No. of deaths in a year

X 1000
2.2.3 Infant mortality rate

Infant mortality rate: the number of deaths of children under one year of
age for each 1000 live births in a given year.
Infant mortality rate
No. of deaths of children under one year of age in a year X 1000

=
No. of live births in the same year
Macionis 2008: 574-5
2.2.3 Factors affecting mortality
• Crude death rate & infant mortality rate can be influenced by culture,
finances, personal behaviors and other factors.
• Thus, this two values may vary across categories in the same society.
Social structure matters !

世衛組織：本世紀將有十億煙民死於吸煙柴玲斥華一孩政策殺女嬰
…如果不採取措施加以對煙草消費進行控前學運領袖柴玲…促請各界關注中國強制墮
制，預計在十年內，每年因吸煙而引起疾胎現象，及一孩政策下女嬰被虐殺的情況。
病的死亡人數將增加到十億人… The Sun 8 Feb 2012
chinareviewnews.com 23 July 2007
2.2.4 Mortality and life expectancy

• If the mortality and infant mortality rate remain low in the society, the life
expectancy will raise.
Life expectancy:
The average life span of a society’s (or a country’s) population.
Crude death rate - number of deaths per 1000 population
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mainland China 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1
Hong Kong 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0
Japan 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.5
Infant mortality rate - deaths per 1000 live births
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mainland China 32.2 30.0 29.2 25.5 21.5 19.0 17.2 15.3 14.9 13.8
Hong Kong 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Japan 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4
Life expectancy at birth (male) - years
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mainland China 69.8 70.3 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.1 71.3 71.5 71.6
Hong Kong 78.0 78.4 78.5 78.5 79.0 78.8 79.4 79.4 79.4 79.8 80.1
Japan 77.7 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.6 78.6 79.0 79.2 79.3 79.6
Source: Website of Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR
男平均81.7歲女87.66歲壓倒日本瑞士港男女最長壽3連霸
…日本厚生勞動省前日公佈2017年度全球平均壽命統計，香港第3度成為男
女性最長壽地區，其中女性平均壽命為87.66歲，較去年上升0.32歲，男性為
81.7歲，升0.38歲，日本女性繼去年後再次排名第二，男性則跌落全球第三
位。
厚生勞動省稱，日本去年人均壽命再創新高，女性平均壽命由去年的87.14歲
上升至87.26歲，穩居世界第二，僅落後於香港，而日本男性平均壽命則由去
年的80.98升至81.09歲，由第二名跌至第三，居於香港及瑞士之後。
Wenwaipo 2018, July 22
What is the impact?
Source: The Economist 11 Jan 2015, Retrieved from:

https://www.eiuperspectives.economist.com/healthcare/patient-
engagement/infographic/life-expectancy-1950-2050
2.3 Migration
2.3.1 Definition
Migration is the movement of people into and out of a specific territory.
2.3.2 Immigration
Immigration (the movement into a specific territory) is measured by
immigration rate that is the number of people entering a specific area (or a
society or a country) for every 1000 people in the population in a given year.
Immigration rate = No. of people entering a society in a year X 1000

2.3.3 Emigration
Emigration (the movement out of a territory) is measured by out-migration rate
that is the number of people leaving a specific area (or a society or a country)
for every 1000 people in the population in a given year.
Out-migration rate = No. of people leaving a society in a year X 1000

2.3.4 Net migration
Both immigration and emigration occurs at the same time. Thus, the
difference between them is the net immigration rate.
Net immigration rate = immigration rate – out-migration rate
2.3.5 Internal migration

Internal migration is the movement within a national border from one
region to another.
Internal migration result from various factors such as urbanization,

working opportunities, etc.
Net migration rate (migrants/1,000 population)
What make people move into or out a society?

http://chinalist.ru/facts/viewyears.php?p_lang=1&p_param=21&p_country=97
2.4 Population Growth
2.4.1 Definition
Population growth is the increase in the total number of people in a population.
Population growth of a society can be determined by crude birth rate,

crude death rate and the net migration rate.
Natural Growth Rate = the crude birth rate – crude death rate
Population growth rate = natural growth rate + net migration rate
2.4.2 Population growth across countries and regions

• Usually, rich countries (or developed countries) grow as much from
immigration as from natural increase.
• Poor countries (or developing countries) grow mainly from natural
increase.
Why ?
In the same country, the fertility and mortality may vary across
regions in the same country, and there may be internal migration.
Thus, the population growth may vary across regions.
Macionis 2008: 576
What make Chinese move out of China?
Middle-class flight
Yearning to breathe free
More of the middle classes are leaving, in search of a cleaner, slower life
…In the past decade 1m Chinese have obtained permanent-resident status in Canada or
America, placing Chinese migrants first in Canada and second in America behind Mexicans.
And the pace has quickened (see chart). About 80,000 Chinese every year are gaining
permanent residency in America, almost five times the rate of the 1980s. Chinese also
made up the largest group of immigrants in Australia with 80,000 arriving in the three years
to 2012, just ahead of Britons and Indians (though Indians have surged ahead of late).
Most of the new emigrants leave China on either a
skilled-worker visa (as Mr Lin will), an employer-
sponsored visa or a family-related visa (joining a family
member who is already abroad). Chinese make up
almost two-thirds of the holders of an elite type of
business-skills visa for Australia. The number of
Chinese long-term residents in Italy almost doubled in
two years, to nearly 120,000 by the end of 2012.
Chinese migrants also ranked first in new residencies in
New Zealand last year, at about 6,000. Another 2m
Chinese live abroad as students or labourers—both
potential paths to citizenship. In 2013 a total of 9.3m
people born in China lived abroad, an increase of
almost 4m since 2000…
(The Economist 26 Apr 2014)
What make Hongkongers move out of Hong Kong?
Number of Hongkongers migrating to Canada hits 20-year high, stretching back to

handover in 1997
But top diplomat in city declines to say whether political turmoil is reason
A record number of Hongkongers migrated to Canada last year in the biggest influx to the country since the
1997 handover, while more mainlanders made a similar trek despite the scrapping of a popular migrants
scheme, the Post has learned.
Figures from the Canadian consulate in Hong Kong showed that 1,210 Hong Kong people became permanent
residents there last year, double the 630 figure for 2015 and 585 for 2014, the year of the Occupy protests.
Applications also spiked from 977 in 2013 to 1,481 in 2014, before

dipping to 1,096 in 2015 and moderating at 1,194 in 2016.
“Hong Kong has changed a lot over the years,” said 34-year-old Ann
Sze Ka-yan, who moved to Toronto last year. “Pressure at work was
immense and children were also facing so much pressure at schools.
Many parents did not want to be monster parents but they ended up
that way. We felt that there was no point living a life like that.”
“Occupy also prompted me to make up my mind,” she added,

referring to the 79-day protest for universal suffrage that paralysed the
city. “No matter who takes up the position as the city’s leader, I don’t
see how they can make Hong Kong a better place.”
(SCMP, 11 Sep 2017)
3. Demographic structure (composition of population)
In the study of the makeup of a population at a given point of time,
two variables are particularly important.
3.1 Sex ratio
Sex ratio is the number of males for every 100 females in a nation’s (or a
society’s) population.
• Sex ratio is usually below 100 as, on average, women outlive men.
• In some countries, the sex ratio is higher than 100. It is because
parents values sons more than daughters and may abort a female
fetus or give more care to male children, lowering the female child’s
chances of survival.
The sex ratio in Hong Kong at the end of 2008 is 89.6
or 89.6 males for every 100 females
In China on 1st Nov 2005, the sex ratio is 106.3
or 106.3 males for every 100 females
•What problems are led by the low or high sex ratio ?

•What are the possible solutions of these problems?
Macionis 2008: 576
3.2 Age distribution
Age distribution is the proportionate numbers (or percentage) of persons in
successive age groups in a given population.
Why age distribution matter?
•Age distribution influence the fertility rate
•Number /proportion of working population determines the productivity
which in turn influence the government’s tax income and expenditure.
•What social services are needed and how much services are needed?
Age Distribution in Hong Kong 2013

Age Number %
0-14 797100 11.1
15-24 861400 12.0
25-34 1092700 15.2
35-44 1139000 15.8
45-54 1263500 17.6
55-64 1012300 14.1
65 & above 1021500 14.2
Total 7187500 100.0
SOPY
Wilson, D. & 3005-Lecture 3 R. (2003) “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050”, Goldman Sachs Global
Purushothaman, 17
Economics Paper No 99: 134, published on 1 October 2003
3.2 Age-Sex pyramid
In most cases, demographers incorporate age and sex into a single graph.
Age-sex pyramid or population pyramid is a graphic representation of the

age and sex of a population.
This graph is important as it can help forecast and compare the growth
and age structure of populations.
For example:
• If the pyramid is wide at bottom, there is a large proportion of children.
In the case, the growth rate of this population may increase in the
coming 20 or 30 years.
• If the pyramid is narrow at bottom, there is a little proportion of
children. Fertility of this population will decline in the coming 20 or 30
years. Meanwhile, the proportion of the elderly will increase and the
population will shrink.
However, the growth rate of a population is also determined by

average of children per woman and the sex ratio.
Henslin 2009:401-2
Hong Kong 2016 China India
2050
https://populationpyramid.net/
4. Relations between population change and social structure
4.1 How social structure influences population growth in developing countries:
Fertility and mortality can be influenced by change in finances and personal

behavior in the same countries. However, the population growth in
developing countries, on average, is higher than that of developed countries.
Status of parenthood: (cultural factor)

• Motherhood is the most prized status a woman can achieve. Bearing more
children help mothers achieve their natural purpose.
• For man, having more children, especially sons also help his name lives on.
Economic incentives:
• For the poor people, children are economic asset as they usually
contribute to the family income at a young age.
• Due the poor social security system in these countries, children can take
care of their parents when they are too old to work, or unable to get a job.
Medical service:
• The improving medical service has led to the fall of mortality while the
fertility rate remains high in these countries. As a result, the population
growth rate remains high.
SOPY 3005-Lecture 3 How about developed countries? 20

Henslin 2009:401-2
4.2 Impacts of demographic structure on society
Sex-age structure influence:

• Opportunity available to men and women, marriage and population
growth.
• Available workforce and the possible economic development.
Age structure influences the demand of resources, including food, social

security, housing, education and medical services, etc.
Cultural or ethnic structure of a population may lead to possible conflicts

among different groups.
More ….
In this case, the government needs to fulfil the needs of
various categories in this demographic structure, and
optimize the demographic size and structure in the
future.
立法會修訂男女廁比例提高至1:1.5
立法會完成審議修訂《建築物條例》的附屬法例，把公眾場所的男女廁比
例，由現時1:1，提高至1:1.5，修訂將於本月14日開始實施，新建築物和重
大翻新工程，必須採用新標準。(HKEJ 2 Dec 2015)
Questions
2066年人口推算港女壽命增至93.1歲社會老化長者佔四成財政負擔勢加劇
政府統計處昨發表最新的人口推算，本港2066年將有772萬人口，當中長者料多達259萬，佔整體
近四成；屆時女性預期壽命更上升至93.1歲。學者預期人口老化將加重政府財政負擔，安老事務委
員會主席林正財促政府每3年要檢討安老服務規劃，應付高齡海嘯。
本港去年中人口有734萬，政府統計處推算至2043年達頂峯822萬後，便逐步回落至2066年的772萬
，當中近四成是長者…預計未來20年65歲或以上長者會增加一倍，由116萬增至237萬，料情況持續
至少30年，到了2066年更達259萬，佔整體人口36.6%，平均每2.7人就有一名長者…
本港人口老化由多項因素造成，過去20年持續低生育率是其一…但同時，港人壽命不斷上升…統計
處推算，港人預期壽命延長，女性於2033年起衝破90歲大關，至2066年更達93.1歲，男性也升至
87.1歲…
隨人口老化，本港撫養比率也一直惡化，現時平均5名工作年齡人士養2名長者或兒童少年，統計
處推算50年後，就每5個養4人。陳萃如表示，近年本港人口中年人佔多，但到2066年則老多幼少…
未來50年，本港女多男少的失衡情況惡化，去年每1,000名女性相對925名男性，但政府統計處推
算2066年將惡化至每1,000名女性相對800名男性。港女北上嫁人也有上升趨勢，過去10年港女北
嫁佔中港婚姻的比例，由19%增至33%。
但隨人口老化、低生育率及死亡人數顯著增加，本港勞動人口至2066年會下降至313萬，勞動人口
參與率更跌至49.6%。(Apple Daily, 9 Sep 2017)
What should the government do?
Apple Daily, 9 Sep 2017
12 September 2018
Questions
星吸移民質素贏港一條街港金融新職停滯星十年倍翻
【明報專訊】人力資源是社會持續發展的基石，在人口老化、勞動力萎縮下，本港近10年有46萬新
移民來港團聚，每年透過專才計劃引入3萬名新血，而近10年間金融及商業服務從業員增長不足兩成
至65萬名，同期星洲的人數則上升近一倍至60萬，已追近香港。至於新移民學歷方面，新加坡的質
素更遠超香港。
有學者指出，本港金融業「瓣數」不多，近年增長純粹以量取勝，未有衍生大量新職位，相反，獅
城金融產業規模雖較細，但涵蓋面較廣，自可吸納各類人才。
Ming Pao 25 Sep 2012
Questions
• Should the developed states
receive the refugees from
Syria?
• What are the pros and cons?
Questions
How should HK treat the
torture claimants?
截至去年八月底，在內地的難民有173人、尋求庇護者則有588人，但當中
未有披露酷刑受害人數的分類數字；香港方面，現時有逾萬名酷刑聲請人
士在本港長期逗留…
對於中港兩地對待假難民問題似有不同，北京大學國際關係學院教授梁雲
祥分析指，中國政府擔憂外籍人士非法偷渡入境中國內地，會帶來嚴重的
社會治安問題，因此只要是意圖打黑工的偷渡客，或是企圖經由內地偷渡
至香港，公安絕不會接受任何庇護申請，一定要遣返。梁又指，中國雖然
簽署與難民相關的公約，但對來自外交關係正常的國家，一般不接受難民
庇護。他認為，港府理論上亦可以對這些帶來治安問題的南亞偷渡人士強
制遣返，但基於人權及社會輿論壓力，其處理顯然較為遲緩，令偷渡者可
「合法滯留」。(Oriental Daily 31 Mar 2016)
假難民問題嚴重
免遣返聲請個案99.5%虛假
…安局副局長李家超指，…在統一審核機制今年3月實
施前，4千多宗已決定的聲請案中，只有24宗獲確立；
至今年5月底，在1,873宗已決定的免遣返聲請中，只得
8宗獲確立，即99.5%屬虛假及不能確立等聲請類別。
李家超承認「假難民」比率嚴重，過往有43%聲請人屬
非法入境，故日後會從打撃非法入境着手，避免有人濫
用機制。至於為聲請人留港時間設上限，則需透過立法
程序，保安局雖以立法為終極目標，但在此之前，應先
從行政制度改善機制。(Oriental Dauly & July 2015)
Questions (Cont.)
五年後有工無人做勞動人口達樽頸倡吸納雙非嬰
五年後，有工無人做？特首梁振英昨表示，本港勞動人口將在2018年到達樽頸，憂會制
約本港經濟發展。政務司司長林鄭月娥日前亦提到，雙非嬰父母教育及職業不錯，社會應考
慮善用這批人力資源。有學者表認同，認為政府應制定政策，主動吸納雙非嬰。
林鄭月娥前晚出席立法會會議指…香港目前維持低出生率，雙非嬰兒的父母有不錯的教
育水平及職業，社會不應只從公共資源角度看待他們，應考慮善用他們，成為香港的人力資
源之一。
理大社會政策研究中心主任鍾劍華表示，現時香港人口問題嚴重，政府應優先處理人口
老化及出生率低的問題，建議政府盡快在行政體系中，成立處理人口問題的架構和部門。他
認同林鄭的說法，與其被動等待雙非嬰來港，不如善用這批人力資源，制定政策，趁早吸納
他們，主動處理問題。 (Sky post 5 July 2013)
落實「零雙非」人口增長放緩
政府統計處昨日公布今年中最新人口統計，增至七百一十八萬四千人，較去年中增加二萬九
千四百人，增長百分之零點四；相較去年的百分之一點二升幅，大幅放緩，反映過去一年本
港人口增長極速放緩，而且港人淨移出有四千人；學者相信是本港今年落實「零雙非」政策，
暫停雙非父母來港產子有關。
(Singtao Daily 14 Aug 2013)
• Can the doubly non-permanent resident children (the children born in
Hong Kong whose parents from the Mainland are both non-Hong Kong
residents) prevent population shrinkage of Hong Kong in the future?
Questions (Cont.)
What is the impact on the social structure?

What is the impact on social service?
How can the government resolve the problems?
香港男女失衡情況擴大港人越來越遲婚
港府統計處21日公佈2011年人口普查結果顯示，香港男女失衡的情況越來越
嚴重，港人的結婚年齡也正在逐漸推遲。
根據普查結果，香港性別比率由2001年的每960名男性相對1000名女性
，下跌至2011年的每876名男性相對1000名女性，撇除外籍家庭傭工後相對
應的性別比率則分別為1012及939…
…2011年男性結婚年齡中位數為31.1歲，女性則為28.8歲。而2000年，男性
結婚年齡中位數為30歲，女為27.3歲；1986年，男性結婚年齡中位數則為28
歲，女為25.3歲。這些數據都顯示，港人越來越遲婚…
HKCNA.com 21 Feb 2012

SOPY 3005 - Lecture 02

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SOPY 3005 - Lecture 02

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Hong Kong Baptist University

Department of Social Work

Dr. CHAN Bing-Kwan

1.2 Demography: the study of human population

Causes of population change

• The word “crude” is used here because this is just a rough

Crude birth rate : number of live births per 1000 population

2.2.2 Crude death rate

Crude death rate = No. of deaths in a year

2.2.3 Infant mortality rate

Infant mortality rate

No. of deaths of children under one year of age in a year X 1000

Social structure matters !

2.2.4 Mortality and life expectancy

Infant mortality rate - deaths per 1000 live births

Life expectancy at birth (male) - years

Source: The Economist 11 Jan 2015, Retrieved from:

Immigration rate = No. of people entering a society in a year X 1000

Out-migration rate = No. of people leaving a society in a year X 1000

Net immigration rate = immigration rate – out-migration rate

2.3.5 Internal migration

Internal migration result from various factors such as urbanization,

What make people move into or out a society?

Population growth of a society can be determined by crude birth rate,

Population growth rate = natural growth rate + net migration rate

2.4.2 Population growth across countries and regions

Number of Hongkongers migrating to Canada hits 20-year high, stretching back to

Applications also spiked from 977 in 2013 to 1,481 in 2014, before

“Occupy also prompted me to make up my mind,” she added,

•What problems are led by the low or high sex ratio ?

Age Distribution in Hong Kong 2013

Age-sex pyramid or population pyramid is a graphic representation of the

However, the growth rate of a population is also determined by

Fertility and mortality can be influenced by change in finances and personal

Status of parenthood: (cultural factor)

SOPY 3005-Lecture 3 How about developed countries? 20

Sex-age structure influence:

Age structure influences the demand of resources, including food, social

Cultural or ethnic structure of a population may lead to possible conflicts

What is the impact on the social structure?

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