Schmid, Roland & Buerger, Johannes & Chen, Jia. (2020).

A Two-Stage Model for

Sequential Engine-Out and Tailpipe Emission Estimation. Emission Control Science
and Technology. 6. 10.1007/s40825-019-00136-z. This paper presents models for the
estimation of vehicular NOx emissions of gasoline-powered vehicles and presents an
analysis of the performance based on real driving data. The main contribution is a
two-stage model for the sequential estimation of engine-out and tailpipe emissions.
This structure allows on-board operation (i.e. the computations can be performed on
standard automotive ECUs) and achieves an accurate estimation performance as
indicated by a statistical analysis. The estimation of engine-out emissions is
based on multiple linear regressions (with a low number of parameters) using
training data from driving cycle data. The test data is taken from road
measurements to obtain a realistic assessment of the performance of the models
under real driving conditions. The accuracy is within 3% for a cumulated error
index. For the second model stage, a reduced physical model of the conversion
efficiency of a catalytic converter is proposed. This stage is based on physical
knowledge about typical conversion behaviour of a three-way catalytic converter. We
further provide a comparison with a regression-based model of the second model
stage and observe that both approaches are feasible. Both achieve an accuracy
within 7% for a cumulated error index. However, the physical model performs better
at detecting particular emission events, while regression-based estimation tends to
average out these effects.