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Breu 10.2 Extinciones II
Breu 10.2 Extinciones II
Amenazas de la Biodiversidad:
Extinción II
Björn Reu
Escuela de Biología
Universidad Industrial de Santander
segundo semestre de 2023
Extinction is a problem for small populations
The down-ward spiral to extinction
The problem of small, fragmented and isolated
populations:
chance and
persistence
can be
redefined /
are variable
Which variables determine MVP?
Minimum viable population (MVP)
Factors affecting MVP:
• environmental stochasticity and catastrophes
Minimum viable population size
Primack (2012)
Population Viability Analysis
Prediction whether a population can persist in an environment (i.e. risk
assessment)
Objectives of PVA
• identify the relative importance of factors reducing population size
• studying the effect of habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation
• studying the effect of augmenting populations with individuals captured elsewhere in
the wild or raised in captivity
• evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies (i.e. hunting)
• model assumption and parameter quality are essential
• generally it is said 10 years of data are necessary for good models
Population Viability Analysis
= projection of population dynamics using a diverse set of underlying processes
• time series PVA: based on number of individuals over time single parameter
population growth
(growth trend and its variance, constant over time)
for PVA?
• rate of population growth based on birth and death (vital rates),
immigrants, emigrants
• initial population size
• carrying capacity and density dependence in vital rates
• life stage (vital rates depending on age)
• temporal variation in vital rates and carrying capacity due to
environmental and demographic stochasticity
• genetic variation (depending on availability of genetic data)
• immigration and emigration rates (dispersal dynamics)
• metapopulation and landscape characteristics
http://qaeco.com/2013/04/22/principles-of-population-viability-analysis-pva-a-checklist-of-the-basics/
Population Viability Analysis
"Uncertainty is just about the only certainty in PVA."
Pro’s Con’s
• cornerstone in conservation • complex model para-metrisation
• useful quantitative tool to (generally 10 years of data necessary)
understand the relative risks of • single species technique
extinction • sufficient information for only few
• compare alternative species
management strategies • may omit additional /
• interface between science and non-demographic risks
practice • long-term projections
• in agriculture?
• in forestry?
• in restauration / conservation?
• Ne determines:
• evolutionary stable strategy
• variation in reproductive output
• population fluctuations and bottlenecks
• founder effects
Loss of genetic variation in small and
isolated populations
Proportion of heterozygosity remaining
after one generation
H (% genetic variability
H = 1- 1/ (2 Ne)
remaining)
Ht = H t
Note: This model does neither
consider migration between
t (Generations) populations nor mutation
Primack (2012)
Which biological mechanisms
exist to avoid inbreeding
depression?
Mechanisms avoiding inbreeding
depression
• kin recognition
• dispersal (male or female dispersal )
• delayed maturation
• extra-pair copulation (difficult conservation of lifetime
bonded species)
• plants avoiding self pollination (e.g. dichogamy, dioecism,
self incompatibility)
Solution: Genetic rescue
Genetic rescue is the process, either natural or facilitated, where inbred (= small) populations receive genes
from another population such that their overall genetic diversity increases. (= facilitate gene flow among
populations such that those with inbreeding depression can be ‘rescued’)
• A metapopulation is a
population of
populations
• Metapopulations are
spatially isolated
populations that are
linked by the dispersal of
individuals
Primack (2012)
Metapopulation concept
• Metapopulations are characterized by repeated extinctions and colonization
• Metapopulations allow species to persist; while some populations may go extinct
others are established by colonization (i.e. source and sink populations)
• High rates of immigration to protect a population from extinction is known as
rescue effect
• shifting mosaic of metapopulations
• metapopulations models consider founder effects, genetic drift and gene flow
• So, a bit of habitat fragmentation is good? Depends on migration and dispersal
abilities of the species.
https://www.ted.com/playlists/426/is_it_time_for_de_extinction
What is DeExtinction?
• Bringing extinct species back to life
• using cloning: DNA extraction + surrogate parents
• Possible candidates: passenger pigeon, woolly mammoth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVzhs1WjzGg
http://longnow.org/revive/events/tedxdeextinction/the-program/