University of Gondar

College of Informatics
Department of Information Science
Data Science and analytics Post Graduate program

Course name: -Big data Analytics

Assignment type: - Article review

Title: Multivariate Co-Integration Analysis

Prepared By:

1. Mohammed Seid

Submitted to Dr. Demeke

Date of submission July, 4, 2023

 Article 1
Authors Title Journal Year

Habib Ur Rahman, The Role of Energy Consumption, Sustainability 2021

Umer Zaman, Economic Growth and Globalization in
Jarosław Górecki Environmental Degradation: Empirical
Evidence from the BRICS Region

Introduction

The paper aims to investigate the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth,
globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. The motivation for the
study was the increasing concern over the impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and
globalization on the environment. The problem statement was that the rapid economic growth
and increasing energy consumption in the BRICS countries may lead to environmental
degradation. The research question was whether there is a significant relationship between
energy consumption, economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the
BRICS countries.

Objective
The general objective was to investigate the relationship between energy consumption, economic
growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. Beside the general
objective, the specific objective was to employ a panel data analysis to identify the factors that
drive environmental degradation in the region.

The scope and delimitation

The scope of the article was to investigate the relationship between energy consumption,
economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. The
analysis is limited to the BRICS countries and covers the period from 1990 to 2018. The study
employs panel data analysis to identify the factors that drive environmental degradation in the
region.

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The delimitation of the study is that it does not consider potential nonlinear relationships
between the variables, and it is limited to a relatively short time period. Additionally, the study
does not consider other factors that may impact environmental degradation in the region.

Significance
The paper provides important insights into the relationship between energy consumption,
economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries, which
has important policy implications.

Contribution
The paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between energy consumption,
economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation by employing a panel data
analysis to identify the factors that drive environmental degradation in the BRICS countries.

Methodology
a) Dataset used: Annual data from 1990 to 2018 for the BRICS countries.
b) Sampling size and technique used: The data is collected through a census method.
c) Data exploration methods used: Time series plots and correlograms are used to explore
the data.
d) Data filling and cleaning methods: Missing values are filled using linear interpolation.
e) Analysis Models, techniques and algorithms used: Panel data analysis, fixed effects
model, Hausman test.
f) Visualizing and statistical methods used: Graphs and tables are used to visualize and
interpret the results.
g) Evaluation methods and techniques used: Granger causality test and panel data
regression analysis are used to evaluate the relationship between energy consumption,
economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries

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Results and Discussion
The paper finds that energy consumption and economic growth have a significant positive
impact on environmental degradation in the BRICS countries, while globalization has a negative
impact. The results also suggest that the impact of energy consumption on environmental
degradation is greater than the impact of economic growth.

Paper‘s Conclusions and recommendations

The paper concludes that there is a need for policies that promote sustainable development and
reduce environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. Policies that promote energy
efficiency, the use of renewable energy sources, and a shift towards a low-carbon economy may
help reduce the environmental impact of economic growth and energy consumption in the
region.

Referencing issues
the paper follows standard referencing procedures

Judgement/Critic
The paper provides valuable insights into the relationship between energy consumption,
economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries.
However, the study is limited to a relatively short time period, and the analysis does not take into
account potential nonlinear relationships between the variables

Lessons learned
The 'resource curse' paradox applies to emerging economies - economic growth driven by resource
intensive methods often comes at an environmental cost that must be managed through appropriate
policies.

Improvements on the article as further work

Future research could expand the time period of the analysis and consider potential nonlinear
relationships between the variables. The analysis could also be extended to consider additional
factors that may impact environmental degradation in the region.
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My conclusions
The paper provides important insights into the complex relationship between energy
consumption, economic growth, globalization, and environmental degradation in the BRICS
countries, which has important policy implications.

Article 2
Authors Title Journal Year

Samuel Asante multivariate causality analysis of CO2 Energy 2022

Gyamerah, Luis emission, electricity consumption, and Reports
Alberiko Gil-Alana economic growth: Evidence from Western
and Central Africa

Introduction
The paper aims to investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions, electricity consumption,
and economic growth in Western and Central Africa. The motivation for the study was the
increasing concern over the impact of CO2 emissions on the environment and the need for
sustainable development in the region. The problem statement was that the relationship between
CO2 emissions, electricity consumption, and economic growth in the region is not well
understood. The research question was whether there is a causal relationship between CO2
emissions, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa.

Objective
The general objective was to investigate the causal relationship between CO2 emissions,
electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa. The specific
objective was to employ a multivariate causality analysis to identify the direction of causality
between the variables.

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The scope and delimitation
The scope of the article was to investigate the causal relationship between CO2 emissions,
electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa. The study uses
annual data from 1971 to 2014 for the region. The analysis employs multivariate causality
analysis, error correction model, Granger causality test, and impulse response function analysis
to identify the direction of causality between the variables. The delimitation of the study was that
it is limited to the region of Western and Central Africa. The study does not consider potential
nonlinear relationships between the variables and is limited to a relatively short time period. The
analysis does not include other potential factors that may impact the relationship between CO2
emissions, electricity consumption, and economic growth in the region.

Significance
The paper provides important insights into the causal relationship between CO2 emissions,
electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa, which has
important policy implications.

Contribution
The paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between CO2 emissions, electricity
consumption, and economic growth by employing a multivariate causality analysis to identify the
direction of causality between the variables in Western and Central Africa.

Methodology
a) Dataset used: Annual data from 1971 to 2014 for Western and Central Africa.
b) Sampling size and technique used: The data is collected through a census method
c) Data exploration methods used: Time series plots and correlograms are used to explore
the data.
d) Data filling and cleaning methods: Missing values are filled using linear interpolation.
e) Analysis Models, techniques and algorithms used: Multivariate causality analysis,
error correction model.
f) Visualizing and statistical methods used: Graphs and tables are used to visualize and
interpret the results.

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 g) Evaluation methods and techniques used: Granger causality test and impulse response
function analysis are used to evaluate the causal relationship between CO2 emissions,
electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa

Results and Discussion

The paper finds that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between CO2 emissions and
economic growth in Western and Central Africa. The results also suggest that there is a
unidirectional causal relationship running from electricity consumption to economic growth, but
no causal relationship between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in the region.

Paper’s Conclusions and recommendations

The paper concludes that there is a need for policies that promote sustainable development and
reduce CO2 emissions in Western and Central Africa. Policies that promote energy efficiency,
the use of renewable energy sources, and a shift towards a low-carbon economy may help reduce
the environmental impact of economic growth and energy consumption in the region.

Referencing issues
The paper follows standard referencing procedures.

Judgement/Critic
One potential limitation of the study is its focus on a relatively short time period from 1971 to
2014, which may not capture longer-term trends and changes in the relationship between the
variables. Additionally, the study does not consider potential nonlinear relationships between the
variables, which may impact the direction of causality.

Despite these limitations, the study's use of multivariate causality analysis, error correction
model, Granger causality test, and impulse response function analysis provide a rigorous
approach to identifying the direction of causality between the variables. The study's findings
have important policy implications for promoting sustainable development and reducing CO2
emissions in the region.

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Lessons learned
Multivariate causality analysis is a useful tool for identifying the direction of causality between
CO2 emissions, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central Africa.

Improvements on the article as further work

Future research could expand the time period of the analysis and consider potential nonlinear
relationships between the variables. The analysis could also be extended to consider additional
factors that may impact the relationship between CO2 emissions, electricity consumption, and
economic growth in the region.

My conclusions
In my opinion, the paper provides important insights into the complex causal relationship
between CO2 emissions, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Western and Central
Africa, which has important policy implications.

Article 3
Authors Title Journal Year

Firmansyah, Shanty The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Journal of 2017
Oktavilia Five South Asian Countries Economics and
Policy

Introduction/Background of problem justification

The article examines the causal relationship between stock markets and exchange rates in five
South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. The
motivation for the study is the increasing integration of financial markets and the potential
impact of exchange rate volatility on stock markets. The problem statement is that there is a lack
of clarity on the direction of causality between the two variables in the context of South Asian
countries. The research question is whether there is a causal relationship between stock markets
and exchange rates, and if so, what is the direction of causality.

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Objective
The general objective is to investigate the causal relationship between stock markets and
exchange rates in five South Asian countries. The specific objective is to To determine the short-
term and long-term relationships between exchange rates and stock market performance in these
countries

The scope and delimitation

The study uses monthly data for a period from January 2000 to December 2015 for five South
Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. The analysis is
limited to the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates and does not consider other
potential factors that may impact the relationship.

Significance
The article provides important insights into the relationship between stock markets and exchange
rates in South Asian countries, which has important implications for investors and policymakers.

Contribution
The article makes several contributions to the literature on the stock market and exchange rates.
First, the author provides a comprehensive review of the previous research on this topic. Second,
the author uses a unique dataset to examine the relationship between the stock market and
exchange rates in five South Asian countries. Third, the author develops a new model to predict
exchange rates.

Methodology
a) Dataset used: The study uses monthly data of exchange rates and stock market indices for the
five countries

b) Sampling size and technique used: The study covers a period of 15 years (2001-2015) and
uses time-series data.

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c) Data exploration methods used: Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis are used to
explore the data.

d) Data filling and cleaning methods: Not explicitly mentioned

e) Analysis Models, techniques and algorithms used: The study employs the Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Johansen co-integration test.

f) Visualizing and statistical methods used: Graphs and tables are used to visualize and
interpret the results.

g) Evaluation methods and techniques used: The study uses diagnostic tests such as the
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test and the ARCH-LM test to evaluate the causal
relationship between stock markets and exchange rates in the five South Asian countries.

Results and Discussion

The article finds bidirectional causality between stock markets and exchange rates in India and
Sri Lanka, while there is unidirectional causality running from exchange rates to stock markets in
Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal. The study also finds that exchange rate volatility has a
significant impact on stock market returns in all five countries.

Conclusions and recommendations

The article concludes that the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates in South
Asian countries is complex and varies across countries. The study recommends that investors and
policymakers should consider the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates when
making investment and policy decisions.

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Referencing issues

The author's references are well-organized and comprehensive. The author cites a variety of
sources, including academic journals, books, and government reports

Judgement/Critic

Pros:

 The article is well-organized and easy to follow.

 The methodology employed is appropriate for the research question.

Cons:

 The study does not provide information about data filling and cleaning methods.
 Limited discussion on the implications of the findings.

Lessons learned
From this article, I have learned about the importance of understanding the relationship between
stock markets and exchange rates, and how this relationship can be influenced by various
macroeconomic factors. I have also learned about the econometric techniques that can be used to
analyze this relationship.

Improvements on the article as further work

 More detailed discussion on the data filling and cleaning methods.
 Expanding the analysis to other regions or countries.
 Investigating the potential impact of other macroeconomic variables on the relationship
between exchange rates and stock market performance

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 My conclusions
In my opinion, the article is well-structured and provides valuable insights into the relationship
between stock market performance and exchange rates in South Asian countries. Despite some
limitations, the study contributes to the existing literature and offers useful information for
policymakers and investors.

Article 4

Authors Title Journal Year

Noraina Mazuin Oil Abundance and Human Capital in Journal of Energy 2020
Sapuan1 *, Mohammad Malaysia: A Multivariate Co-integration Economics and Policy
Rahmdzey Roly2 Analysis

Introduction
The introduction of the article provides a detailed description of the motivation behind the study,
which is to investigate the relationship between oil abundance and human capital in Malaysia.
The problem statement is that despite the abundant oil resources in Malaysia, the country has not
been able to fully utilize them to improve human capital development. The research question is
whether there exists a long-term relationship between oil abundance and human capital
development in Malaysia

Objective
The general objective is to investigate the long-run relationship between oil abundance and
human capital development in Malaysia from 1981 to 2017. The specific objectives are to
determine the direction and magnitude of the effect of oil abundance on human capital
development

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The scope and delimitation
The study focuses on Malaysia and uses data from 1981 to 2017. It delimits its analysis to the
effect of oil abundance on human capital indicators like education enrollment and literacy rates

Significance
The article is significant because it provides new evidence on the relationship between oil
abundance and human capital. The author's findings suggest that oil abundance can have a
positive impact on human capital, but this impact is weaker in countries with a higher level of
economic development and institutional quality.

Contribution (of the reviewed article)

The article makes several contributions to the literature on the relationship between oil
abundance and human capital. First, the author provides a comprehensive review of the
theoretical and empirical literature on this topic. Second, the author uses a unique dataset to
empirically investigate the relationship between oil abundance and human capital in Malaysia.
Third, the author's findings provide new insights into the factors that influence the relationship
between oil abundance and human capital.

Methodology
The article uses time series data from the World Bank database, covering variables like oil
revenue, gross domestic product, education enrollment rates, and literacy rates. It employs the
multivariate co-integration analysis technique to investigate the long-run relationship between oil
abundance and human capital.

Results and discussion

The author reports that there exists a long-term relationship between oil abundance and human
capital development in Malaysia, and that this relationship is bidirectional. The author also
provides a detailed discussion of the implications of these findings for policymakers and
stakeholders in Malaysia

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Conclusions and recommendations
The conclusions and recommendations section summarizes the main findings of the study and
provides recommendations for future research. The author concludes that there is a significant
relationship between oil abundance and human capital development in Malaysia, and that this
relationship is influenced by various factors, such as government policies, technological
advancements, and economic conditions. The author recommends that policymakers focus on
improving human capital development to reduce the country's dependence on oil exports and
promote long-term economic growth.

The referencing issues

The author reference appears to be adequate. The author has cited relevant and recent literature
on the topic, and has provided a comprehensive list of references at the end of the article.

Judgement/Critic
In my opinion, the article is well-written and provides valuable insights into the relationship
between oil abundance and human capital development in Malaysia. The author has clearly
stated the research question, objective, and methodology, and has provided a comprehensive
analysis of the findings. However, one limitation of the study is that it only considers the
relationship between oil abundance and human capital development, and does not account for
other factors that may affect these variables

Lessons learned
From this article, I have learned about the importance of understanding the relationship between
oil abundance and human capital development, and how this relationship can be influenced by
various factors. I have also learned about the multivariate co-integration analysis technique,
which can be used to analyze the long-term relationship between multiple variables.

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 Improvements on the article as further work
As further work, it would be interesting to expand the scope of the study to include other factors
that may affect the relationship between oil abundance and human capital development, such as
political stability, social and cultural factors, and environmental sustainability. It would also be
useful to investigate the relationship between these variables in other oil-producing countries.

My conclusions
In my opinion, the article provides valuable insights into the relationship between oil abundance
and human capital development in Malaysia. The study is well-designed and rigorously
executed, and the findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the
country

Article 5

Authors Title Journal Year

Nguyen Duy Phuong1, The Relationship between Foreign Direct Journal of Energy 2018
Le Thi Minh Tuyen2 Investment, Economic Growth and Economics and Policy,
Environmental Pollution in Vietnam: An 2
Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach

Introduction
The authors begin by highlighting the rapid economic growth experienced by Vietnam in recent
years, which has been accompanied by environmental pollution. They state that Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) has played an important role in Vietnam's economic development, but its
impact on the environment has not been fully understood. The authors seek to investigate the
relationship between FDI, economic growth, and environmental pollution in Vietnam,

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Objective
The general objective of the article is to examine the relationship between FDI, economic
growth, and environmental pollution in Vietnam. The authors specifically aim to examine the
following questions:

 Does FDI have a positive or negative impact on economic growth in Vietnam?

 Does FDI have a positive or negative impact on environmental pollution in Vietnam?

 Does the relationship between FDI and economic growth vary over time?

 Does the

Scope and delimitation

The study focuses on Vietnam as a case study and uses data from 1990 to 2015. The authors use
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) models to analyze the relationship between FDI,
economic growth, and environmental pollution. However, the study does not consider other
factors that may affect environmental pollution, such as technological progress, government
policies, and social factors.

Significance
The article is significant because it provides new insights into the relationship between FDI,
economic growth, and environmental pollution in Vietnam. The authors' findings suggest that
FDI can have both positive and negative effects on economic growth and environmental
pollution. This information is important for policymakers who are considering the role of FDI in
Vietnam's economy

Contribution
The study contributes to the literature on the relationship between FDI, economic growth, and
environmental pollution by using an ARDL approach. The authors find that FDI has a positive
long-run effect on environmental pollution, while economic growth has a negative long-run
effect. The short-run effects of FDI and economic growth on environmental pollution are
positive and insignificant. The authors recommend that policy makers focus on improving the
quality of FDI and promoting sustainable development
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Methodology
a) Dataset used: The authors use data from the World Bank's World Development
Indicators and the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.
b) Sampling size and technique used: The study uses a time series dataset, and the sample
size is 26 years (1990-2015).
c) Data exploration methods used: The authors use descriptive statistics and correlation
analysis to explore the data.
d) Data filling and cleaning methods: The authors do not mention any specific data filling
or cleaning methods.
e) Analysis Models, techniques and algorithms used: The authors use ARDL models to
analyze the relationship between FDI, economic growth, and environmental pollution.
f) Visualizing and statistical methods used: The authors use graphs and tables to present
the data and the results of the analysis.
g) Evaluation methods and techniques used: The authors use several evaluation
techniques, including residual tests, diagnostic tests, and stability tests, to evaluate the
validity and reliability of the ARDL models

Results and Discussion

The authors find that FDI has a positive long-run effect on environmental pollution, while
economic growth has a negative long-run effect. The short-run effects of FDI and economic
growth on environmental pollution are positive and insignificant. The authors discuss the
implications of these findings and provide policy recommendations.

Conclusions and recommendations

The authors conclude that FDI and economic growth have a significant impact on environmental
pollution in Vietnam. They recommend that policy makers focus on promoting sustainable
development and improving the quality of FDI to mitigate the negative impact on the
environment.

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Referencing issues
The authors provide a list of references at the end of the article, but some of them are not
properly formatted according to the journal's guidelines.

Judgment/Critic
The article provides a detailed analysis of the relationship between FDI, economic growth, and
environmental pollution in Vietnam. The use of ARDL models is appropriate for the study's
objectives, and the authors provide a thorough evaluation of the models. However, the study has
some limitations, such as the exclusion of other factors that may affect environmental pollution.
Additionally, the authors do not provide a clear definition of environmental pollution, which may
affect the interpretation of the results.

Lessons learned
The article taught me a lot about the relationship between FDI, economic growth, and
environmental pollution. I learned that FDI can have both positive and negative effects on these
variables, and that policymakers need to consider the potential negative effects of FDI on
environmental pollution when making decisions about FDI policy Improvements suggested:

Future studies could consider other factors that may affect environmental pollution, such as
technological progress, government policies, and social factors. Additionally, a clear definition
of environmental pollution should be provided to ensure consistent interpretation of the results.

My Conclusion
In point of view ,The article provides valuable insights into the relationship between FDI,
economic growth, and environmental pollution in Vietnam. The use of ARDL models and
thorough evaluation of the models add to the study's credibility. The findings and policy
recommendations can inform policy decisions aimed at promoting sustainable economic
development while mitigating the negative impact on the environment. However, the study has
some limitations, such as the exclusion of other factors that may affect environmental pollution
and the lack of a clear definition of environmental pollution. Overall, the study contributes to the

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literature on the topic and highlights the importance of balancing economic development and
environmental protection.

Reference

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1. Rahman HU, Zaman U, Górecki J. The Role of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth
and Globalization in Environmental Degradation: Empirical Evidence from the BRICS
Region. Sustainability. (2021); 13(4):1924. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041924
2. Samuel Asante Gyamerah a,b , Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana c,d, A multivariate causality
analysis of CO2 emission, electricity consumption, and economic growth: Evidence
from Western and Central Africa,(2023), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12858
3. Firmansyah, Firmansyah & Oktavilia, Shanty. The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in
Five South Asian Countries. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi
dan Pembangunan., (2017). 18. 102. 10.23917/jep.v18i1.4293.
4. Noraina Mazuin Sapuan, Roly, Mohammad Rahmdzey , Oil abundance and human
capital in Malaysia : a multivariate cointegration analysis, international Journal of
Energy Economics and Policy (IJEEP),(2020), ISSN: 2146-4553,
https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8578
5. Nguyen Duy Phuong1 *, Le Thi Minh Tuyen2, The Relationship between Foreign Direct
Investment, Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Vietnam: An
Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach, International Journal of Energy Economics
and Policy, 2018, ISSN: 2146-4553,

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