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  • Rizki Muliawan

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    This document compares exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.9 to a 3 month moving average for forecasting demand. It provides historical demand data and calculates forecasts, errors, and accuracy metrics for both methods over a 12 month period. Exponential smoothing produced a forecast of 78,117.56 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 30,317.96 across the sample. The 3 month moving average forecasted 76,992.67 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 29,720.1, indicating slightly better accuracy. Overall, the document evaluates and compares the performance of two common forecasting techniques.

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    This document compares exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.9 to a 3 month moving average for forecasting demand. It provides historical demand data and calculates forecasts, errors, and accuracy metrics for both methods over a 12 month period. Exponential smoothing produced a forecast of 78,117.56 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 30,317.96 across the sample. The 3 month moving average forecasted 76,992.67 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 29,720.1, indicating slightly better accuracy. Overall, the document evaluates and compares the performance of two common forecasting techniques.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    22 views2 pages

    Rizki Muliawan

    Uploaded by

    Rizki Muliawan
    This document compares exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.9 to a 3 month moving average for forecasting demand. It provides historical demand data and calculates forecasts, errors, and accuracy metrics for both methods over a 12 month period. Exponential smoothing produced a forecast of 78,117.56 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 30,317.96 across the sample. The 3 month moving average forecasted 76,992.67 for the next period with a mean absolute deviation of 29,720.1, indicating slightly better accuracy. Overall, the document evaluates and compares the performance of two common forecasting techniques.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

    EXPONENTIAL SMOOTING ALPHA 0,9

    PERIODE DEMAND FORECAST


    January 108216
    February 99155 108216 -9061 9061 82101720 9.14%
    March 90700 100061.1 -9361.102 9361.102 87630220 10.32%
    April 123586 91636.11 31949.89 31949.89 1020796000 25.85%
    May 91761 120391 -28630.01 28630.01 819677400 31.20%
    June 110646 94624 16022 16022 256704500 14.48%
    July 135077 109043.8 26033.2 26033.2 677727700 19.27%
    August 61545 132473.7 -70928.69 70928.69 5030879000 115.25%

    September 60153 68637.88 -8484.875 8484.875 71993100 14.11%

    October 75651 61001.49 14649.51 14649.51 214608200 19.37%

    November 77060 74186.05 2873.953 2873.953 8259607 3.73%

    December 78267 76772.6 1494.398 1494.398 2233227 1.91%

    TOTALS 1111817 -33442.71 219488.6 8272611000 264.62%

    AVERAGE 92651.41 -3040.247 19953.51 752055600 24.06%

    Next period
    78117.56 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
    forecast

    Std err 30317.96


    MOVING AVERAGE PERIODE 3 BULAN
    PERIODE DEMAND FORECAST
    January 108216
    February 99155
    March 90700
    April 123586 99357 24229 24229 587044400 19.61%
    May 91761 104480.3 -12719.33 12719.33 161781300 13.86%
    June 110646 102015.7 8630.328 8630.328 74482560 7.80%
    July 135077 108664.3 26412.66 26412.66 697628800 19.55%
    August 61545 112494.7 -50949.67 50949.67 2595869000 82.78%

    September 60153 102422.7 -42269.66 42269.66 1786724000 70.27%

    October 75651 85591.66 -9940.664 9940.664 98816800 13.14%

    November 77060 65783 11277 11277 127170700 14.63%

    December 78267 70954.66 7312.336 7312.336 53470260 9.34%

    TOTALS 1111817 -38018 193740.7 6182988000 250.99%

    AVERAGE 92651.41 -4224.222 21526.74 686998700 27.89%

    Next period
    76992.67 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
    forecast

    Std err 29720.1

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