https://www.thestar.com.

my/business/
business-news/2023/09/20/vietnam-
projects-economic-growth-of-up-to-65
Vietnam projects economic growth of
up to 6.5%

 ECONOMY
 Wednesday, 20 Sep 2023

Economist Can Van Luc forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth rate at 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

HANOI: The Planning and Investment Ministry has outlined three potential economic growth
trajectories for 2024, with the peak gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate forecast at 6.5%.

These projections stem from the government’s socioeconomic development strategy for the
2021-2025 period, combined with endeavours to meet the 2023 growth goal of 6.5%.
Given the challenges faced by the Vietnamese economy between 2021-23, 2024 is anticipated to
be a pivotal year for the country’s to accomplish the objectives of its five-year plan.

In the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is predicted to rise by 6%.

The estimate presumes that global growth will be moderate in 2023 and the resurgence of global
trade and investment will continue to face hurdles. Although the domestic market and services
sector might exhibit robust growth, the import, export, and industrial production sectors may not
experience a marked recovery due to their reliance on global market demand.

The Planning and Investment Ministry believes a GDP growth target of 6% would be fitting,
given the expected continued risks the global and domestic economies may encounter during the
recovery phase.

Under the second scenario, the ministry envisages a GDP growth of 6.5%, assuming both global
and regional economies rebound quicker than international organisations’ predictions. This
scenario also considers a surge in demand, trade, and investment. Concurrently, the domestic
market would likely experience revivals in demand, production, business activities, exports,
investment, and foreign direct investment influx.

STARPICKS
UTP's commitment to sustainable futures

For the third scenario, the GDP growth is projected to range between 6%-6.5%, reflecting
predictions of swift changes in both global and domestic contexts. The ministry favours the third
scenario.

While optimism regarding economic recovery is on the rise, various organisations and specialists
remain wary about the prospects for Vietnam’s economy.

In mid-July, the Asian Development Bank adjusted its 2023 forecast for the Vietnamese
economy downwards from 6.5% to 5.8% and its 2024 projection from 6.8% to 6.2%.

Similarly, in early April, the World Bank anticipated moderate 4.7% growth for Vietnam in
2023, progressively increasing to 5.5% in 2024 and reaching 6% by 2025.

The World Bank’s report pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy supporting short-term
demand, removing barriers to the implementation of public investment and addressing
infrastructure constraints could help the economy achieve these targets and prolong long-term
growth.

Economist Can Van Luc forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth rate at 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.
The growth rates could be higher if Vietnam manages to consolidate existing growth drivers and
exploit new drivers that would come from promoting the digital economy, improving labour
productivity, the private sector, the institutional improvements and the development of the green
economy.

According to chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh, the
economy’s recovery depends significantly on global trends and solutions to tackle internal
problems.

The pressure on macroeconomic management, inflation control and growth promotion would
increase in the remaining months of this year, requiring hastened efforts to achieve the target set
at 6.5% and implement the plan for the 2021-2025 period, Thanh said.

Thanh added that the focus in the remaining months of this year should be to speed up
disbursements of public investments, increasing domestic demand and accelerating production.
— Viet Nam News/ANN
https://www.adb.org/news/pakistan-
economy-slow-2023-amid-strong-climate-
headwinds-adb
Pakistan Economy to Slow in 2023 Amid
Strong Climate Headwinds — ADB


News Release | 21 September 2022

Read time: 3 mins
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
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ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN (21 September 2022) — Pakistan’s economy is

forecast to slow to 3.5% in fiscal year (FY) 2023 (ending 30 June 2023) amid
devastating floods, policy tightening, and critical efforts to tackle sizable fiscal
and external imbalances, even as growth in FY2022 is expected to have
reached 6.0%, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report today.

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Update, gross

domestic product (GDP) growth in Pakistan in FY2022 was propelled by higher
private consumption and an expansion in agriculture, services, and industry—
particularly large-scale manufacturing. But in FY2023—as well as climate
headwinds and Pakistan’s critical policy efforts—ADB’s lower growth
projection also reflects double-digit inflation. The latest report is an update to
ADB’s annual flagship economic publication.

“The recent devastating floods in Pakistan add profound risk to the country’s
economic outlook,” said ADB Country Director for Pakistan Yong Ye. “We hope
that flood related reconstruction and economic reforms will catalyze
significant international financial support, stimulate growth, and preserve
social and development spending to protect the vulnerable. ADB is preparing
a package of relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction to support people,
livelihoods, and infrastructure immediately and in the long-term.”

The economic outlook will be shaped largely by the restoration of political

stability and the continued implementation of reforms under the revived
International Monetary Fund program to stabilize the economy and restore
fiscal and external buffers.

According to the update, private consumption expanded by 10% in FY2022

resulting in improved employment conditions and higher household incomes.
Agriculture output increased by 4.4% in FY2022 supported by strong
performances in crops and livestock. Agriculture growth is expected to
moderate due to flood damage and high input costs next year, which may
diminish services growth, particularly wholesale and retail trade.

In FY2023, fiscal adjustments and monetary tightening are expected to

suppress domestic demand. A contraction in demand, together with capacity
and input constraints created by higher import prices from the rupee’s
depreciation, will reduce industry output.

Inflation accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter (April–June) of FY2022,

spurred by the removal of fuel and electricity subsidies, a significant
depreciation in the rupee, and the surge in international commodity prices.
Inflation spiked to 21.3% in June, its highest since 2008, lifting average
headline inflation to 12.2% in FY2022. Inflationary pressures will remain high in
FY2023 with inflation forecast to rise to 18%.

In addition to the floods, the elevated inflation rate along with possible fiscal
slippages as general elections approach, and a higher-than-projected increase
in global food and energy prices, remain downside risks to the outlook.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and

sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate
extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from
the region.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/18/europe/us-
veto-security-council-israel-gaza-war-intl/
index.html
US vetoes Security Council call for
‘humanitarian pause’ in Israel-Hamas war

By Caitlin Hu and Richard Roth, CNN

3 minute read
Updated 2:41 PM EDT, Wed October 18, 2023

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield votes against a Brazil-sponsored draft resolution on October 18,
2023.
Mike Segar/Reuters
CNN —
The United States has vetoed a draft resolution at the UN Security
Council which called for a humanitarian pause in besieged Gaza –
sparking more criticism of political paralysis in the powerful global
body.

The brief draft resolution, proposed by Brazil, condemned the

October 7 terror attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group
Hamas, which killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of
hostages taken.
It also called on all parties to comply with international law and
protect civilian lives in Hamas-controlled Gaza amid a ferocious
retaliation by Israeli warplanes. The international community
should engineer “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting to allow for
aid delivery, it said.

Twelve of the council’s 15 members approved the draft on

Wednesday, with the UK and Russia abstaining, and a US veto.

Speaking after the vote, US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-

Greenfield explained that the US wanted more time to let American
on-the-ground diplomacy “play out.” The US had previously delayed
voting on the resolution.

Thomas-Greenfield also criticized the text for failing to mention

Israel’s right to self-defense – a point later echoed by the British
representative Barbara Woodward.
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Since the Hamas attacks, Israel has been bombarding Hamas-
controlled Gaza with airstrikes. It has also cut off the enclaves’ 2
million people from supplies of basic necessities, including food,
water and electricity.

More than 3,000 people have died in the Israeli strikes – including
more than 1,000 children and dozens of aid workers – and UN
experts are warning of a widespread disaster if water and
electricity are not restored.

The US, Egypt, Israel and UN have been negotiating for days over
the possible opening of a humanitarian corridor that would bring aid
in through the Rafah border crossing, which connects Gaza to
Egypt.

In New York, several members of the Security Council expressed

disappointment and frustration over the failure of a joint statement
on the importance of aid and civilian protection.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ben-wallace-
former-uk-defense-chief-big-eu-countries-
nato-spending-pledge/
Former UK defense chief warns big EU
countries won’t keep NATO spending pledge
Ben Wallace was in the mix as a potential new NATO secretary-general before quitting in July.

While Wallace didn't specify the countries, the two richest EU members — Germany and France — have
both promised to boost defense spending | Pool photo by Andy Commins/Getty Images

BY STUART LAU
OCTOBER 20, 2023 7:54 PM CET
3 MINUTES READ

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RIGA — Ben Wallace used his first international appearance since stepping down as
Britain's defense secretary to launch an attack on "some pretty big countries in
Europe," warning they won't stick to their defence spending promises.
Speaking virtually at the Riga Conference in Latvia, a security-focused event, Wallace
advised the Baltic countries to pressure their rich European partners to actually spend
2 percent of their GDP on defense. He warned that the political will to beef up such
expenditures — fostered in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — could be
losing momentum.

"There are some pretty big countries in Europe who I don't think will maintain 2
percent in the long run, and I think there'll be a number of pledges that won't be made
either or matched by even 2030," Wallace said, responding to a question about the top
priorities facing NATO countries.

He added: "I already see the language among some of the biggest countries in Europe.
They're sort of backpedaling on their commitments, and it will be interesting to see if
they really are prepared to sustain their 2 percent budget."

While Wallace didn't specify the countries, the two richest EU members — Germany
and France — have both promised to boost defense spending.

Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz last year unveiled a defense spending shift called
the Zeitenwende, pledging to earmark €100 billion, or about double the annual defense
budget, to jumpstart its military upgrading. So far, Germany has committed — though
not spent — about €30 billion of the €100 billion, Berlin said earlier this year, adding
the money would only be transferred once the aircraft, uniforms and other ordered
gear materializes.

Despite that boost, Germany will only spend 1.57 percent of its GDP on defense this
year, according to NATO's estimates published in July.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans in January for a funding boost
of €413 billion to modernize the military from 2024-2030, up from €295 billion in the
previous budget. However, France's annual spending comes to 1.9 percent of GDP.

Only 11 of the alliance's 31 members are expected to reach 2 percent spending this
year — although that's an improvement on last year, when only seven were on track to
reach the pledge.

The U.K. has historically been above that level; this year its defense budget is
estimated at 2.07 percent of GDP.

Speaking on a separate panel, NATO's Assistant Secretary-General for Intelligence

and Security David Cattler was more upbeat: "Certainly between the Madrid and
Vilnius summits [last year and this year] it became very clear that 2 percent must be
the floor.

“When allies’ leaders had this discussion they also realized that there are some
expenditures, some costs, that must be borne by nations and allies as a whole, for
catch-up, for remedy of shortcomings, for additional capabilities development,"
Cattler said. "That’s why you’ll see more and more allies not just reach the 2 percent,
but exceed [it].”
Wallace called on NATO countries to "show [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that
we're serious, that we are up-arming, and we are equipping, and then actually exercise
together ... Before Ukraine, NATO sort of moved at a snail's pace."

"We need to catch up. And that's what we're spending our money on," he continued.
"We also need to start delivering by actually allocating the forces to the [NATO
regional] plans, but not in a sort of paper manner."

Wallace quit the British government in July, saying he would not stand in the next
general election. His name had been in the mix of potential candidates to be the next
secretary-general of NATO before the defense alliance agreed in early July to extend
Jens Stoltenberg’s term by a year.
https://www.adb.org/news/philippine-
economy-post-robust-growth-2023-2024-
despite-inflation-pressures-adb
Philippine Economy to Post Robust Growth
in 2023, 2024 Despite Inflation Pressures —
ADB


News Release | 04 April 2023

Read time: 3 mins
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MANILA, PHILIPPINES (4 April 2023) — Philippine economic growth is

expected to moderate this year from 2022’s forecast-beating outturn but will
remain on a healthy expansion mode, underpinned by rising domestic
demand and a recovery in services particularly tourism, according to a new
report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today.

ADB’s flagship economic publication Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April

2023 forecasts the Philippine economy to grow by 6.0% this year, climbing
further by 6.2% in 2024. A recovery in employment and retail trade, sustained
expansion in the manufacturing sector, and rising public infrastructure
spending will support growth.

However, risks from a sharper-than-expected slowdown in major advanced

economies, heightened geopolitical tensions, and inflation stickiness could
dampen the outlook for gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

"The Philippines will grow at its potential this year and next and is on track
toward its goal to become an upper middle-income country,” said ADB
Philippines Country Director Kelly Bird. “Like most other economies, the
Philippines will be increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change
and the effects of emerging technologies on the labor market.”

“Key to sustaining a strong growth momentum is keeping public infrastructure

spending at levels above 5.0% of GDP, as the government has planned for this
year and in the medium term. High-impact infrastructure projects that will
help connect communities to markets and public services and provide access
to jobs and livelihood will help increase rural incomes and support inclusive
growth,” he said.

Inflation is expected to average 6.2% in 2023 before easing to 4.0% in 2024,

according to the report. Local food supply constraints and rising global
commodity prices led to high inflation rates in early 2023. Inflation is projected
to decelerate in the second half of 2023 and through 2024 as the series of
monetary policy tightening take effect and global commodity prices ease.

The country’s unemployment rate improved to 4.8% in January 2023 from

6.4% in the same period a year earlier, even lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Some 4.1 million jobs were added over the year, mainly from the services
sector as the tourism started to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. This
bodes well for sustained private consumption, which should get an additional
boost from steady remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

The current account deficit is forecast to narrow, in part due to strong service
exports, particularly from business process outsourcing, recovery in tourism
receipts, and higher OFW remittances. Robust domestic demand will continue
to drive imports of both consumer and capital goods.

Despite impressive gains in economic growth and poverty reduction, the

country faces the challenge of addressing climate change and risks to food
security, especially for the bottom two income deciles, as malnutrition and
hunger incidence persist, the report says.

The challenge requires a multipronged approach that considers both supply

and demand factors. This includes addressing bottlenecks in local food
production and agricultural productivity and trade and raising household
incomes and incentives for better health and nutritional outcomes. Social
protection, including food voucher programs, play a central role in alleviating
poverty and hunger, says the report.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and

sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate
extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from
the region.