‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬

‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ﺍﻷﺒﻴﺽ‬

‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬

‫ﺨﺎﻟﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻭﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺜﺎﻤﺭ ﻜﺭﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺎﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﻤﺤﻤﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺩﺍﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺍﺱ ﺭﺸﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ‬
‫)‪(1‬‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻁﺭﻱ – ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺒﻐﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫)‪(2‬‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ – ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺒﻐﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫)‪(3‬‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ – ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﻜﺭﺒﻼﺀ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺹ‬
‫ﺸﻤل ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ‪ 336‬ﺩﺠﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ﺒﻨﺎﺕ ‪ 24‬ﺩﻴﻙ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺘﺭﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻘل ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻟﻘﺴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ – ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺒﻐﺩﺍﺩ ‪ /‬ﺍﺒﻭ ﻏﺭﻴﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ‪ 2005/1/15‬ﻭﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ‪،2005/9/30‬‬
‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ‪ (Estimated Transmitting Ability) ETA‬ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )‪ (General Linear Model‬ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻫﺯ ‪ (2001) SAS‬ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ )‪ (Fixed effect‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻔﺫﺕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ )‪MIVQUE (Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ) ‪ (Random effects‬ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻻﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻁ‬
‫)‪ (Mixed model‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﻔﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﻠﻎ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ‪ 0.18‬ﻭ ‪ 0.20‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ‪ ETA‬ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﻥ – ‪ 0.96‬ﻭ ‪ 0.58‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺒﻴﻥ – ‪ 1.49‬ﻭ ‪3.28‬‬
‫ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼﻟﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻷﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ )‪ Fairfull‬ﻭ ‪ ،(1990 ،Gowe‬ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﺭ ﻟﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﻤﻥ ‪ 27 – 24‬ﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻀﺔ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺨﻠل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻥ ﻴﺒﺩﺍ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ )‪ Akbas‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪.(2002 ،‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺘﺸﺘﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻷﻴﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﺒﻼ ﺍﻨﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻔﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ )‪ Akbas‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪.(2002 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻜﺩﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻟﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ )‪ Luc‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪1996 ،‬؛‬
‫‪ Bednarczyk‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪ ،(2000 ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻜﺩﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ Chen‬ﻭ ‪ (2003) Tixier – Biochard‬ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺤﻘﻕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺹ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻭﻤﻅﻬﺭﻱ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 0.69‬ﻭ ‪ ،0.75‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺒﻴﻀﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺩﻟﻴﻼ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻨﻀﻭﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ‪ Robinson‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (1990‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﺫ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 10 – 6‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺼل ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﻭﻴﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﻪ‬
‫ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺒﻠﻎ ‪ ،0.40‬ﻭﺍﻴﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪ Tolimir‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (1997‬ﺍﺫ ﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ ،0.45‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫‪ Pavlidis‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (2002‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻭﺼﻰ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﻀﻤﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 0.36‬ﻭ ‪.0.70‬‬
‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻟﻨﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺤﻭل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ‪ ETA‬ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻓﻀل ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻜﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﻭﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬

‫ﺍﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻘل ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻟﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻭﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ –‬
‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺒﻐﺩﺍﺩ ‪ /‬ﺍﺒﻭ ﻏﺭﻴﺏ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﻤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ‪ 2005/1/15‬ﻭﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ‪ ، 2005/9/30‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ‪ 24‬ﺩﻴﻙ ﻭ‪144‬‬
‫ﺩﺠﺎﺠﺔ ﻟﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ﺍﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺒﻌﻤﺭ ‪ 20‬ﺍﺴﺒﻭﻋﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻴﻊ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ 24‬ﻋﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﻭﺒﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺩﻴﻙ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻟﻜل‬
‫ﺴﺘﺔ ﺩﺠﺎﺠﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﻀﻌﺕ ﺍﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﻔﺎﺹ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﺒﻌﺎﺩ ‪ 50 × 40 × 40‬ﺴﻡ ﻭﻏﺫﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻠﻴﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺩﻯﺀ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺒﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﻡ ‪ % 17.8‬ﻭﻁﺎﻗﺔ ‪ 2746‬ﻜﻴﻠﻭ ﺴﻌﺭﺓ ﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ‪ /‬ﻜﻐﻡ ﻋﻠﻑ ﻟﻠﻤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﺭ ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻭﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﺭ ﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺎﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺒﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﻡ ‪ % 14.7‬ﻭﻁﺎﻗﺔ ‪ 2721‬ﻜﻴﻠﻭ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭﺓ ﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ‪ /‬ﻜﻐﻡ ﻋﻠﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ ﻭﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ ﻋﺸﺭ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺒﺭﻭﺘﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﻡ ‪ % 16‬ﻭﻁﺎﻗﺔ ‪ 2708‬ﻜﻴﻠﻭ ﺴﻌﺭﺓ ﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ‪ /‬ﻜﻐﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻘﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﺼﻁﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻘﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻨﺎﺙ ﻭﺠﺭﻯ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻘﺢ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﺏ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌل‬
‫ﻭﻭﻀﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺯﻥ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ ‪° 11‬ﻡ ﻭﻟﻤﺩﺓ ‪ 14‬ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل )‪ 336‬ﺩﺠﺎﺠﺔ(‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﺜﻼﺙ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺴﺎﺕ )‪ (2005/1/15 ،1/ 8 ،1/ 1‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ‪ 100‬ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻨﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﻟﻜل ﺩﺠﺎﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ ‪Chen‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪.(2003) Tixier – Biochard‬‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ = ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺃﻁﻭﺍل ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ‪ /‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬

‫ﺍﺠﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺒﺄﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ‪ GLM‬ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻫﺯ ‪ (2001) SAS‬ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ )ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ ( ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Yijk = µ + Hi + b ( xi - x¯ ) + eijk‬‬
‫اذ ان ‪:‬‬
‫‪ =Yijk‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺎهﺪة ‪ j‬وﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﻌﺪل ﻃﻮل ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ اﻟﺒﻴﺾ او ﻋﺪدهﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﻰ اﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ‪.i‬‬
‫‪ = µ‬اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻌﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪ = Hi‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ‪( 3 – 1 = j ) j‬‬
‫) ¯‪ = b ( xi - x‬اﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺪروﺳﺘﻴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻮزن ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻨﻀﺞ اﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ = eijk‬اﻟﺨﻄﺄ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ وﻳﻔﺘﺮض ان ﻳﻜﻮن ﻣﻮزﻋﺎ ﺗﻮزﻳﻌﺎ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴﺎ وﻣﺴﺘﻘﻼ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻳﺴﺎوي ﺻﻔﺮا‬
‫وﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻗﺪرﻩ ‪. ơ² e‬‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ‪ (1971 ،Rao) MIVQUE‬ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﻭﺓ ﺍﻨﺼﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺸﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻻﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻁ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﻵﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Yijk = µ + Hi + Sj + eijk‬‬
‫ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻭل ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ‪ Sj‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺏ )ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ‪.(24‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ‪ ETA‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺼﻑ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩ )ﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻌﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﻡ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺼﻑ ﺠﻴﻨﺎﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺒﻨﺎﺌﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺎ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻀﻠﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫‪ (Expected Progeny Differences) EPD‬ﺍﻭﺍﻷﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ‪،(Predicted Differences) PD‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺄﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﺒﻪ ‪Bourdon‬‬
‫)‪:(1997‬‬
‫‪ETA= ½ [n h²/ 4+ (n – 1) h²] x S‬‬
‫ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = ETA‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ = n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺕ ﻟﻸﺏ ‪ = h² ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬
‫‪ = S‬ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻨﺎﺕ ﻜل ﺍﺏ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻴﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺩﻗﺔ ‪ ETA‬ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﺒﺄﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ ‪:(1997 ) Bourdon‬‬
‫‪Acc = √ n h²/ 4+ (n – 1) h²‬‬
‫ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ = Acc‬ﺩﻗﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻤﺎ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻓﻀل ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻔﺘﻲ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻵﺘﻴﺘـﻴﻥ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ = ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل × ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل = ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ – ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻴﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺜﻡ ﺍﻋﻴﺩ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ ) ‪ ( Rank‬ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 1‬ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺩﺓ ‪ 100‬ﻴﻭﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻭل ﺒﻴﻀﺔ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪3.96‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل )‪ 3.85‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ( ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻭﺼل ﺍﻟﻴﻪ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ )‪ (1988‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻴﻘﻊ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩ ﺍﺫ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺤﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 2.78‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ 4.02‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ )‪ Singh‬ﻭ ‪1982 ،Singh‬؛ ‪ Sah‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪ ،(1985 ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻗﺩﺭ‬
‫‪ Akbas‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (2002‬ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﻴﻊ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 7.41‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ‬
‫ﻁﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ‪ 5.30‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ 6.21‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ Luc‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (1996‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ‪ 11.7‬ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ 16.6‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪ Bednarczyk‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪.(2000‬‬
‫ﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺩﺓ ‪ 100‬ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ‪ 17.32‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻟﻤﺎ ﻭﺠﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ) ‪ ( 1988‬ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ ، 17.50‬ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺩﺓ ‪ 100‬ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﺫ ﺒﻠﻎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ 68.12‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻠﻎ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ )‪ 65.37 (1988‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻥ ﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺤﺎﺼل ﻀﺭﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ‪ x‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻤﺘﺼل ﺫﻜﺭ ‪ Chen‬ﻭ ‪ (2003) Tixer – Biochard‬ﺍﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬
‫ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 12.3‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺒﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﺭ ‪ 38‬ﺍﺴﺒﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 9.5‬ﻭ ‪ 11‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻁﻴﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ )‪ Bednarczyk‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ‪.(2000 ،‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .1‬ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ )ﺒﻴﻀﺔ( ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ ±‬ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫‪ ±‬ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫‪0.36 ± 17.32‬‬ ‫‪0.07 ± 3.96‬‬ ‫‪336‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ‬
‫‪b 0.53 ± 16.56‬‬ ‫‪a 0.11 ± 4.21‬‬ ‫‪129‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪ab 0.67 ± 16.93‬‬ ‫‪ab 0.14 ± 3.88‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪a 0.55 ± 18.37‬‬ ‫‪b 0.11 ± 3.79‬‬ ‫‪124‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ‬

‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.016‬‬ ‫‪336‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﺣﺮوف ﻣﺘﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﻋﻤﻮدﻳﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎت آﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻻﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ‪% 5‬‬

‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 2‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻅﻬﺭﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﺜﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺎ )‪ ،(P<0.05‬ﺍﺫ ﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻟﻬﺎ )‪ 4.21‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ( ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﺩﻨﺎﻫﺎ )‪ 3.79‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ( ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺎ )‪ (P<0.05‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ )‪18.37‬‬
‫ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ( ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻭﺍﺩﻨﺎﻫﺎ )‪ 16.56‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ( ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺍﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ )ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ = ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻁﻭﺍل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ‪ /‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل(‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻤﺘﺼل ﻓﻘﺩ ﻨﻔﻰ ‪ Singh‬ﻭ ‪ (1982) Singh‬ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .2‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬
‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪* 136.91‬‬ ‫‪* 5.19‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺴﺔ‬

‫‪46.94‬‬ ‫‪1.78‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻲ‬

‫‪43.60‬‬ ‫‪1.65‬‬ ‫‪332‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺭﻴﺒﻲ‬

‫* )‪(P<0.05‬‬

‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 3‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 0.18‬ﻭ ‪ 0.20‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻪ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ‪ Akbas‬ﻭﺯﻤﻼﺅﻩ )‪ (2002‬ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻩ ﺒﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ‪،REML‬‬
‫‪ MIVQUE ،ML‬ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 0.22 ،0.22 ،0.23‬ﻭﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ‪ 0.39 ،0.40 ،0.41‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪ .‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻗﺩﺭ‬
‫‪ Chen‬ﻭ ‪ (2003) Tixier – Biochard‬ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 0.42‬ﻭ‬
‫‪ 0.45‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻟﻭﻏﺎﺭﺘﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ‪Box‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ ،(1964) Cox‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ ،0.15‬ﻭﺃﻜﺩﺍ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻜﺎﻥ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻐﺭﺽ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﺒﺄﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .3‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻟﺩﺠﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻠﻜﻬﻭﺭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺔ‬
‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ‬
‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬

‫ﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﺩﻨﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ‪ 0.58‬ﻭ – ‪ 0.96‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ )ﺠﺩﻭل‪،(4‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ‪ 3.28‬ﻭ – ‪ 1.49‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ )ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ ،(5‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺒﻨﺎﺕ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻭﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻁﻭل‬
‫ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ ‪ 4.54‬ﻭ ‪ 3.00‬ﺒﻴﻀﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻅﺭﺓ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ‪20.60‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ 15.83‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ ،6‬ﻭﻟﻭﺤﻅ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻷﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﺓ ﺼﻴﻔﺎ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺸﻬﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻑ )‬
‫‪ ،(1986 Sturki‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺯﺍل ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﻭﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﻭﻗﺔ ﻻﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺒﺩﻱ ﺘﻔﻭﻗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﺍﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻅﻬﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﺍ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺴﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺘﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻔﻭﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻡ ﺘﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﻔﻭﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻟل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺘﻘل ﻋﻥ –‬
‫‪ ،1‬ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻷﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺘﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﻜﺩﺘﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ Chen‬ﻭ‬
‫‪ (2003) Tixer – Biochard‬ﺍﺫ ﻗﺩﺭﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻅﻬﺭﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫– ‪ 0.78‬ﻭ – ‪ 0.69‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺏ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﺍ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻔﺔ ﺴﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺍﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺕ )‪ 21‬ﺒﻨﺕ( ﻗﺩ ﺤﺼﻠﻭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﺍﻵﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻗﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻨﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﺩﻋﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل ﻻﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻤﻜﺎﻓﻰﺀ ﻭﺭﺍﺜﻲ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﺜل ﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺌﻤﺔ ) ‪Fitness‬‬
‫‪.(1997 ،Bourdon) (traits‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻟﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻭ ﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻟﻌﺩﺓ ﺍﺠﻴﺎل ﺴﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ )‪ (Inbreeding depression‬ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﻤﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺩﺓ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺸﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺭ )‪ Chen‬ﻭ ‪.(2003 ،Tixer – Biochard‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .4‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﺘﻨﺎﺯﻟﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻭﻓﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻁﻭل ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻟﻨﺴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺩﻗﺘﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺩﻗﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ) ﺒﻴﻀﺔ (‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻷﺏ‬ ‫ﺕ‬

‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.50‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪0.21‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.33 -‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪0.57‬‬ ‫‪0.37 -‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬
‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪0.56 -‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫‪0.63‬‬ ‫‪0.66 -‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬
‫‪0.62‬‬ ‫‪0.96 -‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻤﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺁﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍﺠﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ – ‪2007 ،213 - 204 :(2) 2‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ 5‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻶﺒﺎﺀ ﺘﻨﺎﺯﻟﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﻕ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻟﻨﺴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺩﻗﺘﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺩﻗﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻭﺭﻴﺔ ) ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ (‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻷﺏ‬ ‫ﺕ‬

‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪3.28‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪2.11‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪1.99‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪0.59‬‬ ‫‪1.07‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.48 -‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪0.59‬‬ ‫‪0.76 -‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬
‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪0.99 -‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪1.17 -‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬
‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪1.49 -‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .6‬ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﺩﻨﻰ ﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺁﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺼﻔﺘﻲ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬
‫ﻨﺴﻠﻬﻡ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻴﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﺴل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل×ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻷﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫‪5.29‬‬ ‫‪73.41‬‬ ‫‪16.61 × 4.42‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪3.75‬‬ ‫‪71.87‬‬ ‫‪15.83 × 4.54‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2.10‬‬ ‫‪70.22‬‬ ‫‪16.84 × 4.17‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1.45‬‬ ‫‪69.57‬‬ ‫‪16.33 × 4.26‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪68.55‬‬ ‫‪16.56 × 4.14‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪----‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬ ‫‪--‬‬
‫‪1.80 -‬‬ ‫‪66.32‬‬ ‫‪18.27 × 3.63‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪2.10 -‬‬ ‫‪66.02‬‬ ‫‪18.39 × 3.59‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬
‫‪2.47 -‬‬ ‫‪65.65‬‬ ‫‪19.31 × 3.40‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬
‫‪3.97 -‬‬ ‫‪64.15‬‬ ‫‪19.44 × 3.70‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬
‫‪6.32 -‬‬ ‫‪61.80‬‬ ‫‪20.60 × 3.00‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺽ ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺨـﺭﻯ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺩﺠﺎﺝ‬.1988 .‫ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬،‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬
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Estimate of sires transmitting ability for average clutch

length and it‫ﹸ‬s number in a stock of white Leghorn chickens

Al - Samarai F. R.(1) Al - Nedawi A. M. (2) Al - Ganabi Th. K .K (3) Al-Soudi K.A. (2)

(1)
Veterinary Medicine College – University of Baghdad
(2)
Agriculture College -University of Baghdad
(3)
Department of Biology - Sciences College-university of Kerbala

Abstract
Data were collected from 336 chicks belonged to 24 sire and 131 dam. This
study was conducted at the poultry farm of Animal Resources Department, College
of Agriculture, Baghdad University, Abu – Ghraib, over a period from Jan. 2005 to
Sep. 2005.
The aim of this research is to estimate transmitting ability of sires for average
cycle length and number of cycles for egg yield.
The General Linear Model (GLM) within SAS program was used to study the
effect of some fixed effect which included (hatch and age at sexual maturity) on
average cycle length and number of cycles for egg yield.
Component of variance for the random effects was estimated by MIVQUE
(Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation ).
The heritability of average clutch length, number of clutch length were 0.18
and 0.20 respectively.
Estimated transmitting ability of sires for average clutch length ranged from –
0.96 to 0.58 day, whereas the corresponding estimates for number of clutch length
being – 1.49 and 3.28 .

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