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Spatial and temporal variations in the frequency of thunderstorm days over

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Article in Weather · December 2017

DOI: 10.1002/wea.3080

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 Spatial and temporal
variations in the frequency of
thunderstorm days over India
Omvir Singh and Pankaj et al., 2009; Kulkarni et al., 2009; Singh et al., Database and methodology

Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99

2011; Das et al., 2015). However, most of
Bhardwaj these studies have been restricted to a For the present study, mean monthly val-
ues of thunderstorm days for the periods
Department of Geography, Kurukshetra particular station, a small area, or a short
period of time, or they have focused only on 1951–1980, 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and
University, India
a particular thunderstorm event. Therefore, 1981–2010 were obtained from climatolog-
at present it is not clear what trends (if ical tables of observatories in India (clima-
Introduction any) there are in thunderstorm frequency tological normals), which were published
across the country. Thus, in order to fill this by the India Meteorological Department
Thunderstorms are a mesoscale weather
research gap, the present study investigates (IMD), Pune (IMD, 1999; 2010; 2011; 2015).
phenomenon, with a spatial scale varying
for the first time the spatial and temporal The data from 294 stations have been used;
from a few kilometers to hundreds of kilo-
variations of thunderstorm days over India the stations are mostly uniformly distrib-
meters and a time scale varying from less
from 1951 to 2010. The results of this study uted over the length and breadth of the
than 1h to several hours (Saha et al., 2014),
should be of interest to weather forecasters, country, including the upper Himalayan
or longer. It has been estimated that nearly
aircraft pilots, agriculturists, administrators, region (Figure 1). In this database, a thun-
45 000 thunderstorms occur daily across the
planners and policymakers. der day is defined as a 24h-period during
world (i.e. 16 million thunderstorms per year;
Christian et al., 2003; Siddiqui and Rashid,
2008). Many hazardous weather phenom-
ena are associated with thunderstorms, such
as strong winds, hail, heavy rain, tornadoes
and lightning, which can result in large
economic losses and casualties (Changnon,
2000; Leigh and Kuhnel, 2001).
Thunderstorms can be investigated and
studied using different approaches. For
example, Camuffo et al. (2000) identified
that thunderstorms have strong links with
Atlantic disturbances. Easterling (2003) con-
sidered the effects of thunderstorms on the
economy during the twentieth century. Mir
et al. (2006) observed a net decrease of 5.3%
in thunderstorm frequency over Pakistan
during the period 1991–2000, relative to
the 1961–1990 norm. Similarly, Yu et al.
(2016) witnessed a significant downward
trend in the occurrence of thunderstorm
days over northwest China. In addition, it
has been found that the El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) influences the spatial dis-
tribution and the intensity of thunderstorms
over India (Kulkarni et al., 2013), Brazil (Pinto,
2014), Australia (Allen and Karoly, 2014),
USA (Allen et al., 2015) and, more recently,
also over the tropics and temperate regions
(Dowdy, 2016).
India is a vast tropical country, and there
hardly exists a month without the occur-
rence of a thunderstorm in some part of
the country. Many studies have been carried
out on the distribution of thunderstorms
over the Indian region, and these have
revealed large variations in their occurrence Figure 1. Map showing the different geographic regions and states of India along with the location
(Manohar and Kesarkar, 2003; Jenamani of meteorological observatory stations. 1
 which at least one thunderstorm is heard. (a)10000
Spatial and temporal thunderstorm variations

The ‘thunder being heard’ criteria limits the

Number of thunderstorms
area covered by each observing station,
8000
under favourable listening circumstances,
to a circular area with a radius of about
20km (WMO, 1953). In the present data- 6000
base, the average distance between the
climatological stations is ≥20km. Moreover, 4000
no station relocations or changes in obser-
vation methods were observed during
2000
these periods. The only limitation of this
database is that these tables comprise
30-year monthly average values of thun- 0
derstorm days. 1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010
Period
To analyse this data quantitatively, sim-
Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99

ple numerical calculations such as frequen- (b) 5000 1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010
cies and sums were applied. Subsequently,
Number of thunderstorms

derived calculations have been summarised

in the form of graphs and maps using a 4000
Geographical Information System (GIS).
For the mapping of spatial characteris- 3000
tics of thunderstorms, the kriging spatial
interpolation technique was used. Kriging
2000
has been found to be the most effective
stochastic interpolation method, and it is
widely accepted as a standard approach 1000
for surface interpolation based on scalar
measurements at different points (Isaaks 0
and Srivastava, 1989). Furthermore, the Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon
parametric Student’s t-test and simple lin- Season
ear regression have been performed to test
the level of significance in thunderstorm fre- (c) 1400 1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010
quency trends.
Number of thunderstorms

In addition, to investigate the seasonal vari-
ation in thunderstorm frequency, the year has
been divided into four seasons, as outlined
by the India Meteorological Department
(Subash and Sikka, 2014); namely, winter
(January–February), pre-monsoon (March–
May), monsoon (June–September) and post-
monsoon (October–December). Additionally,
the selected stations have been classified
into seven geographic regions, based on
the monsoon regions of India, to examine
the regional variations of thunderstorm fre-
quency (Figure 1). The latitudinal variation
in the frequency of thunderstorms across
the range 7°N–35°N over the Indian region
has been also calculated. The basic aim of
studying the latitudinal variation of thun-
derstorm frequency is to investigate the
idea that the moist and humid tropical land
surfaces favour an increased frequency of
thunderstorm development, because heat-
ing is systematically stronger close to the
tropics than at higher latitudes. For this, the
mean number of thunderstorm days across
the individual latitude range, from 7°N to
35°N, has been plotted against mean lati-
tude values 7.5, 8.5, 9.5..., 34.5°N.
Results and discussion
Temporal variations
Annual variations
The average number of thunderstorm days
2 per year over India for the four time periods
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan Feb Mar
Figure 2. Variation in (a) annual, (b) seasonal and (c) monthly frequency of thunderstorm days
over India during four time periods.
defined above is shown in Figure 2(a). It
shows a significant decreasing trend in
thunderstorm days over India (P-value
<0.05). Relative to the 1951–1980 time
period, there was a net decrease of about
34% in the frequency of annual thunder-
storm days during the 1981–2010 period.
This decreasing trend in thunderstorms is
not peculiar to India. Worldwide, similar
downward trends in the frequency of thun-
derstorms during the second half of the
twentieth century have been reported for
parts of the USA (Changnon and Changnon,
2001), parts of Russia and Kazakhstan
(Gorbatenko and Dulzon, 2001), tropical
Africa (Price and Asfur, 2006), Pakistan (Mir
et al., 2006), China (Yu et al., 2016), the Baltic
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
countries (Enno et al., 2014) and parts of
Nigeria (Budnuka, 2015). The decreasing
trend in the frequency of thunderstorm
days over India could be a result of a reduc-
tion in atmospheric moisture, which itself is
the result of a reduction in the frequency of
monsoon depressions (Dash et al., 2004). Yu
et al. (2016) discovered that the decreasing
trend in the frequency of thunderstorms
over China is linked to a decrease in mois-
ture transport over the region as a result
of decreasing monsoonal rainfall. Changes
in circulation pattern are another potential
source of reduced thunderstorm activity
over the Indian region, and there may be
other (unrelated) factors that need to be
explored further. It might be interesting to
speculate here; for example, there could increasing moisture deficiency and a lower thunderstorm days as one moves northeast-

Spatial and temporal thunderstorm variations

be a contribution due to other controls on
the Earth’s electric field, etc. Interestingly,
studies published on pre-1950s data have
shown a lower frequency of thunderstorm
days than for the 1951–1980 period. For
example, WMO (1953) showed about
60 days over the northeastern parts of
India, whilst Rao and Raman (1961) and the
IMD (1969) showed more than 75 days, with
maxima of 100 days over northeastern parts
of Assam. This low frequency prior to the
1950s could be attributed to an underes-
timation and/or a lack of sufficient data in
the past (Tyagi, 2007).
Sun as the season progresses.
Spatial variations
Annual variations
The areal pattern of average annual thun-
derstorm days during four different time
periods over India confirms a considerable
decline in their frequency over all parts
of the country (Figures 3(a)–(d)). During
the period 1951–1980, the entire north-
eastern part of India exhibited more than
50 thunderstorm days per annum (Figure
3(a)), while during the 1981–2010 period
wards from western parts of the country
is noticeable in all four Figure 3 plots. The
mean wind flow, proximity to the head of
the Bay of Bengal, topographical complex-
ity and mean altitude all have a significant
influence on the annual overall averages
of thunderstorm activity in this region.
Furthermore, Kerala and adjoining parts of
the south of the country also observe a local
maximum frequency of thunderstorm days.
Overall, thunderstorms are most frequent in
the wettest areas (northeastern and south-
ern India), mainly due to orographic influ-
ences, and generally decrease in frequency

Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99

the ‘above 50’ category is completely absent when moving from high to low elevation
Seasonal and monthly variations over the whole of India (Figure 3(d)). At (i.e. towards the western part). Reduced
The frequency of thunderstorm days var- the same time, the area with fewer than 10 thunderstorm activity in western parts of
ies from season to season and month to thunderstorm days spreads widely over the the country is attributed to the extremely
month over different time periods (Figures western parts (Figures 3(a)–(d)). The general dry conditions in this region (particularly
2(b) and (c)). Interestingly, a decline for all pattern of an increase in the frequency of over the Thar Desert).
seasons and months has been observed,
with a sharp decline during the months
of the monsoon (June–September) and
pre-monsoon (March–May) seasons. On
an annual basis, thunderstorm activity
increases consistently from January and
attains a first peak in June (Figure 2(c)).
It then decreases until the end of August,
and picks up again and attains a second
peak in September. After September, the
thunderstorm activity diminishes. The
variability of thunderstorm days appears
to be related to variations in the tem-
perature and moisture conditions in the
atmosphere. Bhardwaj and Singh (2016)
observed that surface air temperature is a
proxy for the formation of thunderstorms
in India. Usually, the air temperature rapidly
rises across the sub-continent from March
onwards, when the atmosphere starts to
become more unstable. The combination
of strong convection due to an almost-
overhead Sun and the availability of copi-
ous amounts of moisture at lower levels
creates favourable circumstances for the
formation of thunderstorms over all parts
of the country by June. In the month of
September, regular cloud and rainfall activ-
ity ceases with the withdrawal of monsoon,
and, therefore, the Earth’s surface receives
slightly more solar radiation, which leads
to subsequent thunderstorm development
(Tinmaker et al., 2015).
Approximately 55% of all annual thun-
derstorm days occur during the monsoon
season, followed by 29% in the pre-mon-
soon season, 12% in the post-monsoon
season and 4% in the winter season. In
the monsoon season, high temperatures
and abundant moisture transported by
the southwesterly monsoon winds create
favorable conditions for the occurrence
of thunderstorms over the Indian subcon-
tinent (Kandalgaonkar et al., 2005; Tyagi,
2007). However, the likelihood of thunder- Figure 3. Spatial distribution of annual thunderstorm days over India during (a) 1951–1980, (b)
storm development decreases due to an 1961–1990, (c) 1971–2000 and (d) 1981–2010. 3
 Seasonal variations
Spatial and temporal thunderstorm variations
The spatial and temporal distribution of
thunderstorm days over India is distinctive
for the different seasons (Figures 4(a)–(d)).
The lowest numbers of thunderstorm days
are recorded during winter (Figure 4(a)). This
observation is primarily attributed to the
stable, cool and dry atmospheric conditions
prevailing over most parts of the country
during this season. Interestingly, the highest
Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99
4 Figure 4. Spatial distribution of thunderstorm days during the (a) winter, (b) pre-monsoon, (c) monsoon and (d) post-monsoon seasons over India.
frequency of thunderstorm days in winter is
witnessed over parts of Uttarakhand and its
adjoining region, and over the far northeast
of the country, while a decreasing trend in
frequency of thunderstorm days with time
has been observed (Figure 4(a)).
The pre-monsoon season is characterised
by an increase in thunderstorm activity
over a large portion of the country, with
a significant increase over northeast India,
the southern peninsula and the Jammu
region (Figure 4(b)). Topography, insolation
and advection of moisture under favour-
able wind regimes play a vital role in the
thunderstorm maxima over these areas.
Synoptically, western disturbances and
induced lows in north and easterly waves
in the south provide favourable conditions
for the occurrence of thunder over these
regions. Additionally, in the absence of
 (a) (b) (c)

Spatial and temporal thunderstorm variations

1000 Hilly Hilly Hilly
400 1951–1980 200 1951–1980
1961–1990 1961–1990
300 1971–2000 1971–2000
1981–2010 1981–2010
500 200 100

100

0 0 0
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010 Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 Northwest 600 Northwest 200 Northwest

500
400

500 300 100

200
100

Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99

0 0 0
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010 Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2000 Centralnortheast 1200 Centralnortheast Centralnortheast

400
1000
1500 300
800
1000 600 200
400
500 100
200
0 0
0
Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010
Northeast 800 Northeast Northeast
1500 300
Thunderstorm Frequency

600
1000 200
400

500 100
200

0 0 0
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010 Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Centralwest 1500 Centralwest Centralwest

2500 500

2000 1200 400

1500 900 300

1000 600 200

500 300 100

0 0 0
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010 Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Peninsula 600 Peninsula Peninsula

1500 300
500

1000 400 200

300

500 200 100

100
0 0 0
Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010

500 Islands Islands 100 Islands

120
100
80
60
40
20
0 0 0
1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010 Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 5. Regional (a) annual, (b) seasonal and (c) monthly frequency of thunderstorm days over India during 1951–1980, 1961–1991, 1971–2000 and
1981–2010.

adequate moisture, frequent convective (Figure 4(c)). The highest thunderstorm of westward-moving monsoon lows and
dust storms dominate over northwestern activity in the country continues to be depressions (Figure 4(c)). Apart from this,
India during this season. observed over northeastern states (i.e. West thunderstorm activity over southeastern
The availability of moisture and favour- Bengal and its adjoining states) during this parts of the country occurs during weak/
able synoptic features during monsoon season, but a sharp decrease has occurred break monsoon conditions (Tyagi, 2007).
season contribute to a general increase in recent decades. Western parts of the After the withdrawal of monsoon, a
in thunderstorm activity over all parts of country continue to experience the fewest marked change occurs in the pattern of
the country, except in some western parts thunderstorms, but they receive a slight thunderstorm activity. Most parts of the
of the central-west and peninsula regions increase during monsoon season as a result country, except Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra 5
 70
Spatial and temporal thunderstorm variations

1951–1980 1961–1990 1971–2000 1981–2010

y = 0.5088x + 21.361 y = 0.6148x + 17.093 y = 0.6486x + 13.635 y = 0.7808x + 10.24

60
R2 = 0.1739 R2 = 0.2222 R2 = 0.2251 R2 = 0.2663

50
Thundersttorm days

40

30
Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99

20

10

0
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
17.5
18.5
19.5
20.5
21.5
22.5
23.5
24.5
25.5
26.5
27.5
28.5
29.5
30.5
31.5
32.5
33.5
34.5
Latitude range (ºN)
Figure 6. Latitudinal variation in annual frequency of thunderstorm days during 1951–1980, 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010.

Pradesh and Kerala, witness a marked onset and retreat. The difference in the ground to the north due to orographic
decrease in thunderstorm activity (Figure timing of the second maximum is attrib- effects (Figure 6).
4(d)). The higher frequency in these south- uted to the early setting up of the post-
ern locations can be attributed to the monsoon wind or northeast trade winds
retreating monsoon and easterly waves over the northeastern region. Meanwhile,
Conclusion
(Tyagi, 2007). In summary, the findings of the hilly, northwest and central northeast In this study, the characteristics of thunder-
this study indicate that geographical loca- regions record only one maximum. At the storm activity over India have been inves-
tion and seasonality are important factors in same time, an examination of thunderstorm tigated for the four overlapping 30-year
controlling the frequency of thunderstorms. activity over the regions which are situated climatological time periods of 1951–1980,
at lower and higher latitudes, shows that 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010. A
thunderstorm activity, which is increased in net decrease of 34% in the number days on
Regional variations the lower latitudes during the pre-monsoon which thunder is heard has been observed
The Indian region is endowed with a vari- season, shifts northwards in the monsoon over India for the period 1981–2010, rela-
ety of environmental conditions which season and concentrates in the regions in tive to 1951–1980. The sharpest decline was
differ from region to region and therefore which the intertropical convergence zone observed for the monsoon and pre-mon-
influence the variability in the occurrence (ITCZ) is located. soon seasons. Monthly analysis of thunder
of thunderstorms. The annual frequency frequency exhibits two peaks in India – the
of thunderstorm days exhibits a significant first in June and the second in September.
decreasing trend over all regions (P-value Latitudinal variations However, the lowest frequencies occur eve-
<0.05) except the hilly regions, where Figure 6 shows the latitudinal distribution rywhere in December. Thunderstorms are
almost no trend is observed (Figure 5(a)). of annual thunderstorm day frequency for most frequent in the wettest areas (north-
Moreover, thunderstorm days vary from sea- different time periods. A careful observation eastern and southern parts of the coun-
son to season, with each region recording of the figure reveals a distinct separation try) and generally decrease in frequency
a peak in thunderstorm activity during the throughout the latitude range (7°N–35°N) when moving from high-elevation areas
monsoon season, except the islands (Figure over the Indian region. Here, it is pertinent towards the dry zone (western part). The
5(b)). Conversely, the islands record their to note that the frequency of thunderstorm low frequency of thunderstorm days dur-
peak frequency of thunderstorm days dur- days shows a small decrease up to 18.5°N, ing the winter season can be attributed to
ing the pre-monsoon season phase. Apart after initial high values at lower latitudes. the prevailing stable, cool and dry atmos-
from this, reduced thunderstorm activity These results may support the general view pheric conditions, whereas insolation and
occurs during the winter in every region. that thunderstorms are most frequent over advection of moisture under favourable
The monthly distribution of thunderstorm moist and humid equatorial land regions; wind regimes contributes to the occur-
days shows that two thunderstorm maxima however, it could also be due to the specific rence of thunderstorm maxima during the
were recorded for the islands, peninsula, climatological characteristics of the Indian monsoon season. Analysis of the annual
central-west and northeast regions (Figure sub-continent. However, north of 18.5°N frequency of thunderstorm days reveals a
5(c)). The first maximum is observed in May, thunderstorm activity shows a fairly con- decreasing trend over each region, except
except in the central-west (June), whereas sistent increase. The best fit trend lines are the northern hilly region, where there is
the second is observed in September over drawn through the annual values of thun- no change. Latitudinally, the frequency
the northeast and central-west regions, and derstorm frequencies for all periods, and of thunderstorm days shows an increase
in the month of October over the islands the results suggest that thunderstorm fre- towards the north, both annually and sea-
and the peninsula. The two maxima over quency increases with increases in latitude, sonally, except in the post-monsoon sea-
6 these regions correspond to the monsoon’s with maxima occurring over the higher son. The results of this study suggest that
future research is required to explore the
causes behind the reduction in thunder-
storm days over India.
Acknowledgements
The authors sincerely thank the anonymous
reviewers for critical comments and con-
structive suggestions, which improved the
overall quality of the manuscript.
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Correspondence to: Omvir Singh
ovshome@yahoo.com;
osingh@kuk.ac.in
© 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
doi:10.1002/wea.3080