Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Xi Jinping to Visit Vietnam:
Scene Setter – 2
December 9, 2023

We request your assessment of the upcoming visit of General Secretary and President
Xi Jinping to Vietnam expected to take place from 12-13 December.
Q1. What is the object and meaning of the visit? What are differences in the visit
compared to previous visits made by top leaders of China and Vietnam?
ANSWER: Xi Jinping will make his third official visit to Vietnam in his dual capacity as
President of the People’s Republic of China and General Secretary of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP).
President Xi is reciprocating General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s visit to Beijing in
late October 2022. In sum, it forms part of high-level exchanges agreed by the two
party leaders and ends a six-year hiatus since Xi last visited Vietnam in 2017. His first
official visit was in 2015.
Xi’s visit takes place under the shadow of President Joe Biden’s visit to Hanoi in
September and the elevation of U.S.-Vietnam relations to a comprehensive strategic
partnership alongside Russia, India, China, and South Korea.
The object of Xi’s visit is to demonstrate the strengthening of Sino-Vietnamese
relations across multiple sectors – political-diplomatic, economic, science and
technology, digital transformation, defense and security, etc.
Xi’s visit will be dressed up with a lengthy joint statement giving details of ongoing
areas of cooperation and new initiatives. It is likely a number of party and government
agreements and memoranda of understanding will be signed. This will suit the mutual
interests of China and Vietnam.
Nevertheless, there will be no quick fix or breakthrough in addressing long-standing
issues such as the bilateral trade imbalance, Vietnamese market access in China, or
the South China Sea dispute. The joint statement is likely to repeat the same
formulation on the South China Sea in the joint statements issued in 2017 and 2022.
Both sides will pledge to properly manage maritime issues, promote cooperation, step
up negotiations to delimit he waters off the mouth of the Gulf of Tonkin, implement
the Declaration on Conduct in the South China Sea, and early conclude a Code of
Conduct in the South China Sea.
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Q2. On December 7, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said: "The
two sides will discuss upgrading the China-Vietnam relations, focus on six major areas
including politics, security, practical cooperation, public support, multilateral affairs
and maritime issues, and work to deepen and substantiate the comprehensive
strategic cooperation between the two countries".
What does "upgrading the China - Vietnam relations" mean? What will be the
trajectory of Vietnam - China relations after the visit?
ANSWER: Xi Jinping has been pressing Vietnam for some time to agree to join his
“community of common destiny.” This is likely to be included in the joint statement.
So far, seven Southeast Asian nations have signed on to the “community of common
destiny” – Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia; When
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh visited China in June this year, Xi told him that “China
regards Vietnam as a priority in its neighbourhood policy and is working to build a
community with a shared future with Vietnam.”
In other words, China wants to demonstrate a special relationship with Vietnam that
is separate from the comprehensive strategic partnership between Vietnam and the
United States.
After Xi’s visit the trajectory of bilateral relations is like to focus on further developing
trade and investment ties through improvements in transport infrastructure, supply
chains, digital economy, and reciprocal improvements in market access.
3. Vietnam upgraded relations with the U.S and Japan while promoting relationships
with China. Does Vietnam become more attractive to global partners, especially big
powers? Is this a big opportunity or challenge for Vietnam? Please explain.
ANSWER: As a result of Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi this week, Vietnam will be in the box
seat benefitting from its expanding network of six comprehensive strategic
partnerships (with the likely inclusion of Australia in March 2024). Vietnam will
emerge as a key economic hub in Southeast Asia as it benefits from increased
investment, technology transfer, and human resource development in its IT sector,
especially the semiconductor and electric vehicle industries.
This development is both an opportunity and a challenge. Vietnam will have to be
nimble in responding quickly to many initiatives from its comprehensive strategic
partners. In other words, there will be a swift growth in opportunities.
The challenge for Vietnam is to manage these challenges efficaciously. For example, it
has been forecast that Vietnam will need to train more than 10,000 engineers to meet
the demands of developing its semiconductor industry.
Also, these opportunities are coming at a time when Vietnam is just starting to map
out its future socio-economic development plans for the next national congress of the
Vietnam Communist Party. The challenge for Vietnam is how to respond in a timely
manner to new initiatives from China, the United States, Japan etc. during its planning
process.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Xi Jinping to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 2,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 9, 2023. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.